Deep Dive
What were the key global conflicts and political changes in 2024?
2024 saw ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and Sudan, alongside a record number of elections worldwide that resulted in numerous incumbents being ousted. Key political changes included the fall of dictators in Syria and Bangladesh, and significant electoral shifts in countries like the UK, Japan, and the US.
Why did Fareed Zakaria believe the 2024 U.S. election results were predictable?
Fareed Zakaria argued that the 2024 U.S. election results were part of a broader, deeper backlash against the status quo, driven by populism, anxiety, and anger in the West. He linked this to themes in his book, 'Age of Revolutions,' which discusses societal backlashes and the rise of populist movements.
What was the global trend in incumbent governments during 2024?
In 2024, every incumbent government that faced elections suffered significant losses, a trend referred to as the 'incumbent penalty.' Examples include the British Tories' historic defeat, the LDP's loss in Japan, and the weakening of incumbents in countries like Mexico and Taiwan. India was an exception, where Modi retained power despite facing an incumbent penalty.
How did Fareed Zakaria assess the state of democracy in 2024?
Fareed Zakaria noted that while democratic institutions faced a crisis of legitimacy, democracy itself proved resilient. He highlighted that elections served as an escape valve during times of turmoil, allowing people to change governments and express dissatisfaction, which he saw as a strength of democratic systems.
What were the strategic outcomes of the Biden administration's Middle East policy in 2024?
The Biden administration's Middle East policy had mixed outcomes. While the U.S. lost soft power due to its support for Israel's war in Gaza, it achieved strategic gains by weakening Iran, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime. Israel emerged as the dominant military power in the region, and the American-led security order was strengthened.
What was the significance of Israel's northern strategy in 2024?
Israel's northern strategy, which targeted Hezbollah and Iran's proxies, was highly successful. It destroyed Hezbollah's command structure, weapons caches, and Iran's air defenses, leading to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. This significantly weakened the 'axis of resistance' and reordered the Middle East in favor of Israel and the U.S.
How did Fareed Zakaria view the relationship between the U.S. and China in 2024?
Fareed Zakaria criticized the Biden administration's early confrontational approach toward China, particularly the Anchorage meeting, which he saw as unnecessarily antagonistic. He argued that a more cooperative approach could have better aligned with China's economic interests and prevented the deepening of the Russia-China alliance.
What was the impact of the BRICS expansion in 2024?
The expansion of BRICS to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE in 2024 signaled growing dissatisfaction with U.S. dominance in the global order. However, Zakaria dismissed the bloc's potential for significant hard power, comparing it to the ineffective non-aligned movement of the 1970s.
What were the key challenges for Ukraine in 2024?
Ukraine faced significant challenges in 2024, including Russia's overwhelming size and economic advantage. While Ukraine's morale was boosted by offensives like the Kursk operation, Zakaria noted that the country struggled with delayed arms deliveries from the U.S. and Europe, which hindered its ability to counter Russian aggression effectively.
How did Fareed Zakaria assess the global balance of power in 2024?
Fareed Zakaria observed that the global balance of power was shifting, with challenges to the U.S.-led order from Russia, China, and Iran. While the U.S. achieved strategic gains in the Middle East, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and China's economic influence in Asia and Latin America posed significant threats to the rules-based international system.
- Rise of populism and anti-incumbency trends globally
- Trump's win not a fluke, but part of a broader backlash
- Old Republican Party is gone, replaced by populist MAGA party
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