Alicia Kearns is concerned about the West's domestic resilience due to a lack of societal preparedness and recognition of threats. She highlights issues such as weaponized platforms like TikTok, sabotage by criminal entities acting as proxies for hostile states, attacks on democracy, and vulnerabilities in maritime movement, underwater sea cables, and academia. She emphasizes that the West has been overly optimistic about its values being adopted globally, leaving it vulnerable to modern warfare tactics.
Alicia Kearns identifies a major societal problem as the lack of a societal contract where the average person does not recognize their role in national security. She contrasts this with countries like Sweden, Finland, and Poland, where citizens are more prepared to defend their nations. Kearns stresses the need for whole-of-state preparedness and a shift in mindset to acknowledge ongoing threats.
Richard Dannatt believes the UK's defense spending is insufficient because the current target of 2.5% of GDP does not adequately address the threats, particularly from Russia. He argues that 3% to 3.5% of GDP is necessary to ensure proper deterrence and security. He criticizes the government for framing strategic decisions based on available finances rather than the actual threats.
John Bolton's biggest concern is the growing Beijing-Moscow axis, which includes outliers like Iran and North Korea. He fears this axis could collide with the Trump administration's isolationist tendencies, potentially undermining support for Ukraine and NATO. Bolton highlights the strategic coherence of this axis across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, and its potential to destabilize global security.
John Bolton views the relationship between China and Russia as a growing axis with strategic coherence. He notes that China has supported Russia by purchasing its oil and gas, laundering financial assets to evade sanctions, and potentially supplying equipment useful to Russia. Bolton sees this partnership as a significant threat, especially given the involvement of other countries like Iran and North Korea.
Richard Dannatt suggests reallocating defense spending to prioritize land forces supported by air forces, reducing expenditure on the Royal Navy, and potentially selling or mothballing the UK's two large aircraft carriers. He argues that these carriers are expensive and do not align with the current priority of addressing the threat from Russia. He also emphasizes the importance of maintaining the UK's nuclear deterrent.
Alicia Kearns criticizes academic partnerships with Chinese organizations because they often involve entities linked to the Chinese military or state, which do not share the same goals of mutual scientific pursuit. She argues that such partnerships are exploited for espionage and other hostile activities, highlighting the need for greater awareness and scrutiny in academic collaborations.
John Bolton warns that China's assertion of hegemony over its Indo-Pacific periphery would have a dramatic impact on Europe and the UK. He notes that Asian allies like Japan and South Korea already recognize this threat, as evidenced by their efforts to strengthen ties with NATO and support Ukraine. Bolton emphasizes the need for a collective defense response to counter China's growing influence.
With no end in sight to conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar and many more places, 2025 promises to be at least as tumultuous as last year. So what is the biggest threat to security for Britain, and its Western allies?
From complacency and our underfunded army to China and Russia, we get the views of Alicia Kearns MP, former chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee and now Shadow Minister for National Security; General Lord Richard Dannatt, former head of the British army; and John Bolton, former foreign security advisor to Donald Trump and ambassador to the UN.
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