cover of episode The biggest threats to Western security in 2025

The biggest threats to Western security in 2025

2025/1/10
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Battle Lines

People
(
(无明确发言人)
A
Alicia Kearns
J
John Bolton
R
Richard Dannatt
Topics
Alicia Kearns: 我认为西方国家面临的最大安全威胁是国内韧性的不足。这不仅仅是军事层面的问题,而是涵盖了社会各个方面,从民众对国家安全的认知到政府应对各种威胁的能力。我们需要加强全社会对国家安全的责任感,提高警惕,积极应对来自敌对国家的渗透和攻击,例如来自中国的渗透和来自俄罗斯的侵略。我们需要认识到,和平并不意味着没有威胁,我们需要未雨绸缪,积极应对各种潜在的挑战。我们需要在各个层面加强合作,共同应对这些挑战。 我们需要认识到,我们所依赖的规则体系,实际上是建立在美国霸权基础上的权力体系。任何对这一体系的冲击,都可能导致严重的裂痕。我们需要更加坚定地捍卫这一体系,同时也要更加严格地要求我们的合作伙伴,共同维护国际秩序。 我们需要在捍卫国内安全方面更加坚决。我们需要对任何针对我们国家的攻击做出强有力的回应,而不是一味地道歉。我们需要保护我们的民众、我们的国家和我们的利益。 Richard Dannatt: 我认为英国国防开支不足是西方安全面临的最大威胁。这使得英国在应对来自俄罗斯等国的威胁时能力不足。政府应优先增加国防开支,特别是陆军和空军的开支,而不是继续投资于昂贵的航母等项目。我们需要对国防进行战略性的评估,根据实际威胁制定相应的国防计划,而不是仅仅根据财政预算来限制国防开支。 我们需要认识到,俄罗斯对欧洲的安全构成了持续的威胁。我们需要加强陆军和空军的实力,以应对这一威胁。同时,我们也需要对核威慑力量进行投资,以确保我们的国家安全。 过去的一些决策,例如建造两艘大型航母,是错误的。这些决策导致了国防开支的浪费,削弱了我们的国防实力。我们需要吸取教训,避免重蹈覆辙。 John Bolton: 我认为,北京-莫斯科轴心与特朗普政府的孤立主义倾向之间的碰撞是西方安全面临的最大威胁。这一轴心在多个地区制造冲突,而特朗普的政策可能会削弱对乌克兰和北约的支持,加剧全球不稳定。 中俄轴心是一个日益增长的威胁,它在东欧、中东和印太地区都构成了潜在的冲突点。这个轴心还包括其他国家,例如伊朗和朝鲜,这些国家都拥有核武器或正在寻求发展核武器。 我们需要认识到,中国对印太地区的主导地位的追求,将对欧洲和英国产生重大影响。我们需要加强与亚洲盟友的合作,共同应对这一威胁。同时,我们也需要解决欧洲内部的一些问题,例如德国经济的困境,以增强欧洲的整体实力。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Alicia Kearns concerned about the West's domestic resilience in 2025?

Alicia Kearns is concerned about the West's domestic resilience due to a lack of societal preparedness and recognition of threats. She highlights issues such as weaponized platforms like TikTok, sabotage by criminal entities acting as proxies for hostile states, attacks on democracy, and vulnerabilities in maritime movement, underwater sea cables, and academia. She emphasizes that the West has been overly optimistic about its values being adopted globally, leaving it vulnerable to modern warfare tactics.

What does Alicia Kearns identify as a major societal problem in Western countries?

Alicia Kearns identifies a major societal problem as the lack of a societal contract where the average person does not recognize their role in national security. She contrasts this with countries like Sweden, Finland, and Poland, where citizens are more prepared to defend their nations. Kearns stresses the need for whole-of-state preparedness and a shift in mindset to acknowledge ongoing threats.

Why does Richard Dannatt believe the UK's defense spending is insufficient?

Richard Dannatt believes the UK's defense spending is insufficient because the current target of 2.5% of GDP does not adequately address the threats, particularly from Russia. He argues that 3% to 3.5% of GDP is necessary to ensure proper deterrence and security. He criticizes the government for framing strategic decisions based on available finances rather than the actual threats.

What is John Bolton's biggest concern for Western security in 2025?

John Bolton's biggest concern is the growing Beijing-Moscow axis, which includes outliers like Iran and North Korea. He fears this axis could collide with the Trump administration's isolationist tendencies, potentially undermining support for Ukraine and NATO. Bolton highlights the strategic coherence of this axis across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, and its potential to destabilize global security.

How does John Bolton view the relationship between China and Russia in 2025?

John Bolton views the relationship between China and Russia as a growing axis with strategic coherence. He notes that China has supported Russia by purchasing its oil and gas, laundering financial assets to evade sanctions, and potentially supplying equipment useful to Russia. Bolton sees this partnership as a significant threat, especially given the involvement of other countries like Iran and North Korea.

What does Richard Dannatt suggest as a solution to the UK's defense challenges?

Richard Dannatt suggests reallocating defense spending to prioritize land forces supported by air forces, reducing expenditure on the Royal Navy, and potentially selling or mothballing the UK's two large aircraft carriers. He argues that these carriers are expensive and do not align with the current priority of addressing the threat from Russia. He also emphasizes the importance of maintaining the UK's nuclear deterrent.

Why does Alicia Kearns criticize academic partnerships with Chinese organizations?

Alicia Kearns criticizes academic partnerships with Chinese organizations because they often involve entities linked to the Chinese military or state, which do not share the same goals of mutual scientific pursuit. She argues that such partnerships are exploited for espionage and other hostile activities, highlighting the need for greater awareness and scrutiny in academic collaborations.

What does John Bolton say about the potential impact of China's hegemony in the Indo-Pacific?

John Bolton warns that China's assertion of hegemony over its Indo-Pacific periphery would have a dramatic impact on Europe and the UK. He notes that Asian allies like Japan and South Korea already recognize this threat, as evidenced by their efforts to strengthen ties with NATO and support Ukraine. Bolton emphasizes the need for a collective defense response to counter China's growing influence.

Shownotes Transcript

With no end in sight to conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar and many more places, 2025 promises to be at least as tumultuous as last year. So what is the biggest threat to security for Britain, and its Western allies?

From complacency and our underfunded army to China and Russia, we get the views of Alicia Kearns MP, former chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee and now Shadow Minister for National Security; General Lord Richard Dannatt, former head of the British army; and John Bolton, former foreign security advisor to Donald Trump and ambassador to the UN.

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