Hezbollah's latest blow. Plus: Trump and China
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It's a fascinating time and I think we can't really predict what the outcome will be, but all these moving parts suggest that there could be a sort of realignment to the whole region and it could actually be for the better. They said he will start a war. I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars. President Zelensky has for the first time acknowledged that his forces are conducting a cross-border offensive inside Russia. I just find bombs and I find dead people, but it's a really scary thing for me.

I'm Venetia Rainey and this is Battle Lines. It's Monday, 18th of November, 2024. Welcome back to another episode of Battle Lines, where we're focused on the latest in the Middle East, including Israel's strike on a Hezbollah official in Beirut and the Pope's genocide comments. We'll also be looking at how Donald Trump's appointments might affect the conflict, plus Sir Keir Starmer's meeting with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping.

Let's begin with a catch-up of the latest death tolls, both civilian and military, since October 7th, 2023. Gaza's death toll is 43,846 people. The West Bank's death toll is 732 people. Lebanon's is 3,481 people.

and Israel's is 1,772 people. Now joining me for today's episode is our Defence and Foreign Affairs editor, Con Coughlin. He's the author of several books on the Middle East as well as Winston Churchill's First War, Young Winston at War with the Afghans.

He's here with me to discuss the Middle East, China and Trump. Thanks for joining us, Con. Lots to get through. I'd be interested to get your thoughts first on this strike in Lebanon. We know that Hezbollah's chief media officer and its prominent spokesperson, Mohammed Nahif, was killed in an Israeli strike in central Beirut on Sunday. What do we know about Afif and the significance of this death? Well, he's a very senior member in the Hezbollah hierarchy.

He was the communications director. I mean, some would say the propagandist-in-chief for Hezbollah. And let's not forget that the UK and the US and other major powers regard Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. So his affiliation with this organization makes him a terrorist. But I think his death is significant because

In the wake of Trump's election victory, there's been a lot of speculation about what will happen in the Middle East. And what the strike shows us is that the Israelis have no desire, intention to give up their assault on Hezbollah. And the new Israeli defense minister, Mr. Katz, said straight after he was appointed last week that Israel wouldn't finish until Hezbollah has been defeated.

been destroyed as a sort of terrorist-stroke military organisation in Lebanon. So, you know, irrespective of what's going on in Washington, the Israelis are still determined to take on Hezbollah and stop them threatening Israel's northern territories.

And how is that conflict going? We've got a sort of brief update. Hezbollah's Bedia Office actually released a two-month summary of the war. They claimed that 100 Israeli soldiers have been killed, 30 artillery positions destroyed, and that Hezbollah had fired over 1,000 rockets and 29 anti-aircraft missiles. Obviously, that doesn't quite match up with Israel's numbers. They say that only 47 soldiers have been killed since September 30th when it sent troops across the border.

And we know that they've actually reached a village just 61 miles south of the capital of Beirut last week. So they're clearly continuing to push further in. What's your assessment of how Israel's military campaign in Lebanon is going and what state has Bola in? There is a propaganda war going on between Hezbollah and Israel. And it's quite difficult for journalists to get into these territories and find out precisely what's going on.

But we know that Hezbollah has fired a lot of missiles at Israel. It's been firing missiles at Israel since October the 8th last year after the attacks carried out by Hamas. And they've made large areas of northern Israel uninhabitable for the Israelis. I think about 100,000 Israelis have left their homes. And it's a similar picture now in southern Lebanon where the Israeli military is persuaded or encouraged

local Lebanese civilians to leave their homes in southern Lebanon because the IDF, Israel Defense Forces, want to concentrate their fire on Hezbollah.

As I say, there's a lot of turn pro in terms of casualty figures. What was released in the last few days is that the IDF, the Israeli forces, have suffered about 800 battlefield fatalities in their year-long offensive against Hamas in Gaza and Hizbullah in southern Lebanon. Historically, that is very high for the Israelis. They haven't seen casualty figures like this for

for many, many years. And that will be adding to the political pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to find some kind of resolution of the conflict, both in Gaza and Lebanon. But without pressure from America and others, but particularly from America, the Israelis are just going to continue their offences against Hamas and Hezbollah to the point where

Neither of these terrorist organizations posed a serious threat to Israel's security.

And we'll get on to talking more about Trump and what his impact on all of this will be shortly. I just want to update our listeners on ceasefire talks. As you mentioned, resolution ceasefire talks have been happening in Lebanon. There is a proposal, a US-led proposal underway that would see Hezbollah withdraw north of the Latani River to leave this sort of southern buffer zone. And the Lebanese armed forces will be the only armed group south of the Latani River. It sounds from reporting in Haaretz, the Israeli daily newspaper Bethlehem,

quite a few hurdles have been cleared over the last few weeks. Apparently, the most important change is that Hezbollah has now stopped insisting that there needs to be a Gaza ceasefire before there's a Lebanon ceasefire. But one big key unresolved issue is that Israel wants to

maintain a freedom to be able to take action against Hezbollah whenever it wants in the future, if it attempts to rearm or go back into the south, which Hezbollah rejects. Do you feel hopeful for some kind of ceasefire resolution in this particular theatre of the war up in the north? Well, I think we need to look at the wider picture, to be honest, because both these groups, Hezbollah and Hamas, are backed by Iran. And Iran is now having to have a serious

rethink about its posture in the Middle East. It's built up Hamas and Hezbollah with the specific intention of threatening Israel. And since October 7th last year, the Israeli military offences, both in Gaza and southern Lebanon, have really destroyed significant areas of their terrorist capabilities. And the Iranians are now really under a lot of pressure because

What they say to the Iranian people is we spent all this money to attack Israel. Well, all this money has been spent and now it's been wasted. And the pressure on the regime will be intense for Iran. You are seeing Hezbollah starting to sort of indicate it's willing to do a ceasefire deal.

And you remember when we spoke last, I was in Lebanon in the 1980s when the Israelis established their first security zone in southern Lebanon up to the Latani River. And that lasted until the 1990s. But in the end, the war of attrition between Hezbollah and Israel became so costly that

the Israelis withdrew. So, you know, the history could repeat itself with some kind of area where, you know, that is free from hostilities. But the Israelis will always put their own security above any other concern. And so any end to hostilities in Lebanon

will only take place if Israel believes that, you know, if Hezbollah starts rearming and building up its missile stockpiles, that the Israel Defense Forces can act. But, I mean, again, I come back to the prospects of Donald Trump reentering the White House next year, and he's talking about a major deal for the whole Middle East.

encouraging a deal for the Palestinians. He loves doing deals, but as part of that, you'll have to end the hostilities in Gaza, you have to end it in Hezbollah, you have to address the Palestinian issue, and you also have to address the issue of

Well, let's delve into that Trump issue shortly. I just want to ask one more question about another story that's been doing the rounds. And that's Pope Francis's call for an investigation into the possibility of genocide in Gaza.

I'm just going to read the exact quotes. According to some experts, what is happening in Gaza has the characteristics of a genocide. And that's from a new book by Hanan Reyes Al-Kaida based on interviews with the Pope. It's coming out this week. It's called Hope Never Disappoints Pilgrims Towards a Better World. And it's a book

These are quite extraordinary comments from the Pope. We have heard him call Israel's attacks in Gaza and Lebanon immoral. He said they're disproportionate. We've never heard him use the word genocide. He obviously hasn't said that that is what's happening, but he's used the word and he's called for an investigation into it. What do you make of his comments? Is this something he should be getting involved with? This is a really problematic area because

Let's go back to the basics. The first act of genocide was committed by Hamas on October 7th, when they crossed into Israel and massacred 1,200 people and took 250 others hostage. And we now know the level of brutality that was inflicted against those people on October 7th. So if the Pope or anybody else wants to talk about war crimes and genocide,

First, they have to look at what Hamas did. And certainly there are allegations around that the Israeli military offensive in Gaza has exceeded international norms of conduct in warfare. And a lot of people are looking at this. But I think what everybody really needs to see is a degree of balance in addressing this.

If people are just going to castigate Israel for its conduct and not hold Hamas and others to account for their behavior, then inevitably accusations of bias arise, which is what the Israelis are saying now. What about Hamas? Why pick on us? So these are very murky waters. And I'm frankly surprised the Pope has got himself involved in this because,

You know, Jerusalem, apart from being, you know, Jews and Muslims, is a central shrine for the Christian community. So for the Pope to get involved in this, rather than just sort of calling for peace and peaceful resolution to the conflict, suggests that, you know, the Catholic Church is in danger of taking sides. And I don't think that's going to help anybody.

Yeah, and I will just read out the Israeli ambassador to the Vatican's response, Yaron Sidman. He said, And I suppose we should also mention that

Genocide. The accusations of genocide against Israel has been in the news a lot this year. We've had obviously the ICJ case brought by South Africa. And we've had a couple of reports out recently, including one last week by the United Nations Special Committee that said it's consistent with the characteristics of genocide. But as you say, we're not seeing those investigations into Hamas. There's a discussion there, I suppose, about how you investigate a terror organization versus a state. But

huge murky conversation that we will leave for another day, because I want to talk to you about Trump's cabinet. You've written a very interesting piece for us about how his appointments are going to shake up global affairs. Maybe let's start with the Middle East and some of his picks that will impact on that conflict. What do you reckon? The one thing that is certain is that the Trump administration will be a lot more supportive of Israel than the outgoing Biden administration.

the Biden administration has been very equivocal in its support for Israel. It's frequently criticized the Israelis for their conduct in Gaza and more recently in Lebanon. And what you're likely to see once Trump's in power is an administration that is four square behind

Israel. And what we will see is with Marco Rubio, who's been nominated as the next Secretary of State, and let's not forget, these are nominations, they've got to be approved by the Senate.

And that's going to be quite interesting next year. But Trump's Secretary of State has already said that he doesn't see any reason for a ceasefire in Gaza until Hamas has been completely destroyed. Well, that's light years away from the position adopted by the Biden administration. And I think you will also see a far more hawkish approach to Iran.

which, as I said, is orchestrating a lot of this. It provides the weapons and funding for both Hamas and Hizbullah and others like the Houthi rebels in Yemen and militias in Iraq and elsewhere. So, you know, Iran is a very malign influence in the region and is causing a lot of the unrest and destabilization. So,

The Trump administration, which you'll remember, took a very hawkish line with Iran previously. It withdrew from the nuclear deal originally negotiated by Barack Obama. It imposed a policy of maximum sanctions against Iran to really hurt the economy. And it did have the effect of toning down Iran's meddling in the region.

And one of the things the Biden administration has done, and I write about this in my column, is that they basically gifted Iran billions of dollars in an attempt to get Iran back to the negotiating table over its nuclear deal. That has failed miserably. So what you'll see with Trump and his new administration is,

is a return to a far more confrontational approach towards Iran to dissuade the Iranians from supporting these terrorist groups so that Trump, as I said earlier, can get his mega Middle East peace deal off the table. And the other thing I would say, and let's not forget this,

is one of the successes the Trump administration had, which is often forgotten, is the Abraham Accords. And the Abraham Accords saw a number of sort of moderate Arab states, mainly the Gulf states, normalize relations with Israel.

Just before October 7th, there was a lot of talk about Saudi Arabia, the real powerhouse in the Gulf region, also normalizing relations with Israel. And some people say that the reason Hamas launched its attack on October 7th was to derail that agreement.

Now, whether after the year of bloodshed the Saudis are minded to get back into negotiations on the Abraham Accords, we don't know. And certainly if they did so, they would want some kind of deal for the Palestinians. So there will be a lot in play. But the direction of travel under Trump will be pro-Israel, anti-Iran,

looking to try and get some kind of peace deal. Yeah, and I see that there's whispers of Jared Kushner, who of course led the talks over the Abraham Accords, returning to Trump's cabinet as some kind of informal Middle East advisor. So clearly, as you say, that is the direction of travel. I wonder how you think...

The warming ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia will complicate that. We obviously had the Beijing broker deal last year to restore diplomatic ties. Obviously, that hasn't completely happened yet. But these historic foes do seem to be talking more and more. And we've seen high level politicians from each country visiting the other. How do you think that will change Trump's attempts to bring Israel into the Middle Eastern fold? Well, I think that's what is going on between the Saudis and the Iranians is fascinating.

When I was last in Saudi earlier this year, I was talking to senior Saudi foreign ministry officials. And they said, well, I got the sense. I mean, they didn't talk on the record. But the feeling I got was they were going through the motions and they were still very suspicious of the Iranians. And they were doing this because the Saudis want better relations with China.

China is brokering all this. The reason China's in a position to broker these deals is that a lot of countries in the region, including the Saudis, have become disillusioned with Washington, particularly during the Biden administration. They feel that they can no longer rely, as they have done for decades, on the Pax Americana to defend their interests. They're looking to build new alliances.

we've seen the Saudis and other states improve ties with Moscow, reach out to China, and China has a big trade deal with Iran because the Chinese are very reliant on Iranian oil. So the Chinese, who want prosperity instead of conflict, are pushing the Saudis and the Iranians to bury their differences and see if they can improve relations. And as I said, the interesting thing about

Donald Trump coming back into power, is this has really galvanized a lot of states. How are we going to approach things in future? Do we want to re-engage with Washington? Can we trust Trump to protect our interests and stand up for our economy and our well-being and all the rest of it? Or do we still need to pursue these other options such as Beijing?

So it's a fascinating time. And I think we can't really predict what the outcome will be. But all these moving parts suggest that there could be a realignment to the whole region. And it could actually be for the better. Coming up after the break, Con and I will be discussing China and how Trump's administration might approach a conflict with Taiwan.

OK, let's talk about China, because I think one of the other things that unifies Trump's appointments, which, as you say, are not official yet, is that quite a few of them are China hawks. Marco Rubio, as well as Mike Waltz, who's become national security adviser, Eli Stefanik, who's now the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. or will be if Trump manages to get the appointment through.

We've got Keir Starmer in Brazil for the G20 summit. He said he's going to meet with President Xi Jinping. That's the first time that a UK prime minister has met the Chinese president in person since 2018. We obviously had the warming of relations with China under Cameron and then everything massively reversed over the last decade. And now potentially trying to create a more, in Keir Starmer's words, stable and pragmatic engagement.

What do you make of Keir Starmer reaching out to Xi Jinping? Well, I think there's a degree of pragmatism. I mean, in fairness to Keir Starmer, he's only been prime minister for a few months and he's sort of basically feeling his way around the geopolitical landscape and seeing, you know, what kind of relationships the new government, the new British government can have, expect with Europe.

with China, with others, with Israel. I mean, everything's new to Starmer. And I think, as I said, with Trump coming into office, a lot of people, including the Chinese, will be having a very

very deep think about where they want to go next. And one of Trump's major claims is he's going to hit the Chinese with massive tariffs, which should have enormous political implications for the British economy and other Western economists if they come into place. The Chinese don't want this.

And if I was Stalin, I'd be saying, well, you know, we'd like to have good relations with you. But, you know, China's support for Russia is sustaining this war in Ukraine. And if you really want better relations with the West, perhaps you could start sustaining down your support for Russia and putting your support behind peace efforts in Ukraine. And that would help to improve relations. But whether it says that, I don't know. That's just my own view.

But, as I say, he's feeling his way. We'll have to see what comes out of it. Nothing much will come out of the initial meeting. There's a question of whether they're going to be able to maintain contact when and if future crises arise.

It's as you say, it's an interesting inflection point in different ways here and across the Atlantic. We obviously have our own China hawks here in the UK. And I note that Ian Duncan Smith is writing for us today here in The Telegraph about how Starmer's Britain won't be China's peer, it'll be Xi's puppet, and that you can't have pragmatic dealings with the totalitarian state that is China. Do you...

Do you think he is equipped enough to be able to deal with a China that thinks in much longer term, but planning has a sort of 2050 year plan versus Britain where we think in sort of four or five year election cycles? I think we can deal with China, but my own view is that we need to be very aware of the Chinese.

And it is an authoritarian regime. And they do have a plan. And they do want to take advantage, for example, of green technology. They're trying to flood the car market with cheap electric vehicles throughout Europe. I mean, the Chinese are not our friends. So whatever relationship we have with them has to be done with our eyes wide open.

And, you know, successive governments, going back to David Cameron, have struggled with the China challenge. And it's not really been resolved. But we are a small player in this bigger game. And the bigger game is China and Trump.

And at some point, depending on how that plays out, we will be asked to take sides. I think the incoming Trump administration has already made it abundantly clear that if Britain wants American support, then we should make sure that our trade interests align with the Americans and not others. So there's a lot at play here.

How do you think when Trump gets into power, when he becomes president, how do you see that relationship between him and China playing out? I know you mentioned tariffs, but I'm wondering particularly in terms of if there was a military confrontation over Taiwan, for example, which we know some defense experts have suggested is still on the cards for 2027. How do you think his administration will deal with that? The incoming Trump administration is likely to take a very robust approach towards the China problem.

Many of those holding senior positions in the new national security infrastructure of the Trump administration are very hawkish on the China issue. And within that context, supporting Taiwan's independence will be a primary objective of the Pentagon and the State Department.

And we've already seen that the incoming administration is going to make sure that its pivot towards the Indo-Pacific region will be central to its overall strategy. Thanks very much for joining us, Con. That's Con Coughlin, our Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor. Battle Lines is an original podcast from The Telegraph created by David Knowles. The producer is Jolene Goffin.

To stay on top of all of our news, analysis and dispatches from the ground in Israel and Gaza, subscribe to The Telegraph or sign up to Dispatches, which brings stories from our award-winning foreign correspondents straight to your inbox. We also have a live blog on our website where you can follow updates as they come in throughout the day, including insights from contributors to this podcast. If you appreciated the show, please consider following Battlelines on your preferred podcast app. And if you have a moment, leave a review as it helps others find the show.

Here's a show that we recommend.

Thanksgiving week is gratitude week at Little Miss Recap, and we are celebrating all of you by dropping five bonus episodes. Amanda and I, over the past few weeks, have rewatched and gushed over some of our all-time favorite episodes of television, from shows like Beverly Hills 90210, The Affair, Family Ties, West Wing, and of course, our beloved Mad Men. So whether you're looking to escape the holiday craziness or you just want to spend some extra time with fellow ladies of a certain age, you can watch

Tune in to Little Miss Recap Thanksgiving week and feel the love. These bonus episodes will drop Monday through Friday, one each day. And thank you for being part of Little Miss Recap. Acast helps creators launch, grow, and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com.