cover of episode Hamish de Bretton-Gordon on Syria’s new leader, Russia’s quick exit and chemical weapons

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon on Syria’s new leader, Russia’s quick exit and chemical weapons

2025/1/13
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Battle Lines
People
H
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon
V
Venetia Rainey
W
William Burns
Y
Yotam Konfino
Topics
Venetia Rainey: 我主持了这个节目，并采访了多位专家，讨论了叙利亚局势、加沙停火协议以及化学武器问题。我采访了化学武器专家Hamish de Bretton-Gordon，他讲述了他最近访问叙利亚的经历以及为查明阿萨德政权使用化学武器的情况所做的努力。我还采访了以色列记者Yotam Konfino，他分析了加沙停火谈判的进展情况以及以色列在叙利亚的活动。 我关注的是叙利亚的局势，特别是阿萨德政权倒台后，以色列在叙利亚的活动以及叙利亚新领导人对国际社会的影响。我还关注加沙停火谈判的进展，以及美国和以色列在其中的作用。 我采访的专家们提供了关于叙利亚局势、加沙停火谈判和化学武器问题的宝贵见解。这些见解帮助我更好地理解了这些复杂的问题，并为听众提供了全面的信息。 William Burns: 我仍然认为达成一项加沙停火协议是有可能的，并且我们政府将为此付出努力，直到拜登总统离任。我们与即将上任的特朗普政府在这方面进行了良好的协调。 Yotam Konfino: 以色列和哈马斯可能在本周签署停火协议。停火协议将分三个阶段进行，包括释放人质和囚犯，以及以色列部分撤军。以色列右翼部长一直是达成停火协议的主要障碍。哈马斯在加沙的控制力减弱，也阻碍了停火协议的达成。阿萨德倒台后，以色列控制了叙利亚和以色列之间的缓冲区和赫尔蒙山，并对叙利亚境内的目标进行了数百次空袭。叙利亚缓冲区居民担心以色列会长期驻扎在那里。以色列对叙利亚新领导人阿卜杜勒·贾利勒的评价谨慎，更愿意阿萨德继续掌权，但担心叙利亚新领导人的意图不明。 Hamish de Bretton-Gordon: 我最近访问了叙利亚的大马士革和霍姆斯，亲眼目睹了叙利亚人民的热情和重建国家的愿望。叙利亚人民渴望建立一个世俗和温和的社会，宗教领袖们互相合作。叙利亚的情况与伊拉克和阿富汗截然不同，存在重建的巨大机遇。新政府希望建立一个包容的社会，叙利亚新领导人阿卜杜勒·贾利勒是一个值得信赖的人。关于阿卜杜勒·贾利勒的一些负面报道是不准确的。新政府希望得到西方的帮助，但他们不想被告知该怎么做。叙利亚需要西方的资源和建议来重建家园。2013年叙利亚古塔发生的化学武器袭击是一场骇人听闻的罪行，我亲身参与了调查，并收集了证据。西方对阿萨德的纵容，导致了其后来的侵略行为。俄罗斯似乎已经完全撤出了叙利亚，叙利亚人民痛恨俄罗斯。以色列在叙利亚的行动是一个复杂的问题，但以色列的行动在一定程度上促成了阿萨德政权的垮台。英国应该立即在叙利亚首都大马士革设立大使馆，并向叙利亚提供资金和建议，帮助其重建。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the current death toll in Gaza, the West Bank, and Israel since October 7th, 2023?

The death toll in Gaza is 46,565 people, in the West Bank it is 816 people, and in Israel it is 1,837 people.

What is the main obstacle to reaching a ceasefire deal in Gaza?

The main obstacle has been the issue of hostages, with uncertainties about how many are alive and who is holding them due to the breakdown of law and order in Gaza.

What is the significance of the buffer zone between Syria and Israel?

The buffer zone, established after the Yom Kippur War in 1974, is a neutral strip of land that Israel took control of after Syrian soldiers left, to prevent jihadists from filling the power vacuum left by Bashar al-Assad's fall.

What was the impact of Obama's decision not to uphold the red line after the 2013 sarin attack in Syria?

The inaction after the sarin attack in Ghouta emboldened Assad, leading to continued atrocities and the perception in Russia that the West lacked the determination to enforce consequences, which may have influenced Putin's actions in Ukraine.

What role did the Russians play in Syria, and what is their current status?

The Russians were heavily involved in supporting Assad's regime, including launching attacks from air bases and maintaining a significant presence in Syria. However, they quickly withdrew when the situation deteriorated, leaving behind abandoned compounds and airfields.

Chapters
Amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza, intense negotiations are underway to reach a ceasefire and secure a hostage deal before Donald Trump's presidential inauguration. The involvement of President-elect Trump and President Biden suggests a high level of urgency, but significant obstacles remain, including the release of hostages and the political complexities within both Hamas and the Israeli government. A three-phase ceasefire plan is proposed, involving the phased release of hostages and prisoners, and a gradual Israeli withdrawal from certain areas of Gaza.
  • Gaza death toll: 46,565; West Bank: 816; Israel: 1,837
  • President-elect Trump's demand for a deal before inauguration
  • Three-phase ceasefire plan: hostage release, prisoner release, Israeli withdrawal and humanitarian aid

Shownotes Transcript

The former British Army colonel and chemical weapons expert tells Venetia Rainey about his recent trip to Syria, )his optimism about the country’s future, and the efforts to find the evidence of Assad’s use of chemical weapons. Plus: Can negotiators get a Gaza ceasefire deal over the line before Donald Trump’s inauguration next Monday? 

Contact us with feedback or ideas:

[email protected] 

@venetiarainey

@RolandOliphant

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