Sean King: Why Trump’s reelection could see Kim Jong Un visit the White House
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Hello listeners and welcome to the NK News Podcast. This episode was recorded via StreamYard on Monday the 18th of November 2024.

And I'm joined by a stream yard by Sean King, who is a former scholar and government official now working in strategic advisory for businesses. He used to work in the US Commerce Department, writes some comments frequently on US Asia matters, and he's now Senior Vice President of Park Strategies in New York, which leads him to travel to Korea and other parts in East Asia on business. And today we're going to be discussing the foreign policy of Donald Trump, soon to be in his second term at

at the White House and what that means for the Korean Peninsula. Welcome on the podcast, Sean.

Jackal, good to be with you. So Donald Trump is president once more. Overall, just as an opening statement, what do you expect this means for U.S. foreign policy, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region? We can't really be sure because Trump seems to make up his mind as he goes along and change his strategy. Remember, he came in claiming that China raped America in the first campaign, and then he ends up saying that Xi Jinping respects him and that he's a good close friend. And

As late as February 2020, he was tweeting out that Xi Jinping was being very transparent. He thanked them for his help on the coronavirus pandemic. So then he goes from fire and fury to exchanging love letters with Kim Jong-un. I don't know. But what I do know is that it's going to be playing allies and partners against each other and looking out for U.S. interests, socializing.

supposedly, but sometimes at the expense of US strategy. So it's going to be a mishmash and I'm just, I'm prepared enough not to be prepared because we don't know what it's going to be and it could change from one year and one week to the next for the next four years. Right. One of those words that, adjectives that people throw around when describing President Trump's style of policy is mercurial, that he can really change his mind from moment to moment. Is that a fair description?

Yeah, you know, that seems like some kind of dark, sinister thing. I think it's what moves him or what animates him at the moment or who lights him up, who gets to him, who talks to him last. Right. And I think personal connections mean a lot for him, obviously, and media does and celebrity factor and imagery.

So whoever maybe puts on the best show is going to have his ear. Yeah. Now, he's named a few people to his cabinet already. These folks haven't yet been confirmed. And there's always the question of how long somebody will last under President Trump. I mean, his first time in the White House.

I think the figure I heard was that 35% of these top advisors didn't reach a full year in their job. But I want to just give a brief rundown of each of the four people whose names I've heard who are most relevant to events on and around the Korean Peninsula and get a couple of thoughts from you. So obviously, we should start off with Marco Rubio, Senator Marco Rubio, who's been named to be Secretary of State.

Now, some say that he's more of an establishment, old-style Republican with some experience serving on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. So he's not a complete outsider. He's also seen as being somewhat close to his Republican predecessor, Mike Pompeo, and a hardliner on China and North Korea. Do you have any thoughts on how Marco Rubio might leave the State Department? Well, you mean, I'm sure you mean little Marco, as Donald Trump called him in 2016 when they were going at each other in the primary.

You know, I was in Michigan last week. It was your pick in that primary, wasn't it? Yeah, I voted for him in the New York primary, GOP, little Marco. So with his bottles of water on TV earlier when he gave the Republican rebuttal to Obama's address. You know, I was in Michigan last week and...

People are asking me, so who's going to be Secretary of State after Trump fires Rubio? They're already thinking that far ahead. Right, right, right. Yeah, Rubio is a bit of a surprising pick because he is very establishment and very hawkish. You know, you could call him one of these neocons who gets us into what Donald Trump calls endless wars. And he was a very bitter personal rival of the president, President-elect's.

once upon a time but he's totally come around to donald trump now in uh party and he's even parroted some of his talking points on ukraine about having to get out but rubio is really principled when it comes to human rights issues freedom of speech freedom of religion his family having fled from communist cuba and he's a real real hardliner when it comes to the prc and it was he and speaker nancy pelosi who had co-authored the human rights

legislation on Hong Kong and he'd also done a lot on Xinjiang in the Uyghurs so and you know there's a bounty on his head or an arrest warrant for him in the mainland China so I don't know it'd be interesting as Secretary of State how he can go to Beijing if he's uh there's a warrant out for his arrest wow yeah because of what he said and done on Chinese China issues

But it is a refreshing choice. But I think we can't get too carried away with looking at all the different cabinet members for Trump. For Trump, it's going to be about what he thinks and what he wants to do. And he likes people who respect him. And as we saw in his summitry with Kim Jong-un in 2018, it's leader to leader. And he expects whoever works in the cabinet to be working for him and to come along with him. And he's going to deal with the leader of any country one-on-one.

and if he doesn't like him, he'll change him and switch him out. So sure, cabinet members can have influence and they can maybe slow things down, but I think we have to look more at Trump himself as opposed to what any other cabinet members do. But Rubio is a good choice, I have to say. Sure, but yeah, the cabinet members, they do help to set the tone a little bit for the start, even though, as you say, Donald Trump is, it's all about himself. Yeah, and they can also, they can be helpful in slow walking things and sort of meander the bureaucracy.

But, you know, Trump's been there once before and he knows he knows the telltale signs when somebody is trying to pull something over on him. So the way maybe Mattis was able to delay things in the past, he won't. It won't happen again this time. Now he's going to know exactly what to do. Now, another pick there is Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence. Now, some people call her a conspiracy theorist. She's certainly highly unorthodox. Once having a private meeting with Syria's President Bashar Assad without.

apparently without having been authorized to do so. She's also apparently more in favor of de-escalation and diplomacy rather than military solutions. But as Director of National Intelligence, I'm not sure what kind of voice she would have in the decision-making process. Can you say something about that role, that position of National Security Advisor?

Well, that's not National Security Advisor. And this is the role that Avril Haines is-- I think it's National-- Director of National Intelligence. I got that wrong. Yeah. Avril Haines has had this job for President Biden. And it's interesting because you mentioned her Syrian connection there. And we know of the Syria-North Korea connection through Iran. And remember her being a former Hawaiian congresswoman.

It was Guam that was in the target of a supposed fake missile from North Korea a few years ago when the bad anti-missile defense batteries are out there in the Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacom in Honolulu. But that's a little concerning that she would, somebody like that with that kind of attitude would be that close to the president. But I see her more as a collector and disseminator of intelligence as opposed to coming up with any policies.

I can't think of anything that President Biden did because of something Avril Haines said. She's there to collate information and leave it up to the president. Trump, none of this stuff really matters. He's going to do what he wants to do. He's not into briefings.

So yeah, he's like, you know, given him PowerPoints, he's like, I don't do PowerPoint. You know, I'm not into this stuff. So she'll talk to him in a way that he can understand, but she's just going to give him information, but he's going to make the decisions on her own. But whatever isolationist or go-it-alone or authoritarian instincts he may have, she will certainly encourage those.

That's just a glimpse of what's coming up in this episode. Don't miss the full conversation. Become an NK News member for the entire podcast episode, as well as daily news insights, stories, and perspectives on North Korea. Head to nknews.org slash join for more information about how you can access the full episode, along with in-depth analysis and insights on North Korea and the region.