cover of episode Here's Why Getting US Election Results Is So Complicated

Here's Why Getting US Election Results Is So Complicated

2024/11/5
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Here's Why

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Megan Crane
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Stephen Carroll
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Stephen Carroll 指出美国大选结果的公布时间存在不确定性,这在华尔街引发了担忧,并强调了选举结果的及时性对于市场稳定性的重要性。他提到2020年大选结果公布耗时四天,2000年大选结果甚至延至12月中旬才由最高法院裁决,这凸显了美国大选计票流程的复杂性。 Megan Crane 详细解释了美国大选计票流程的复杂性根源于50个州各自不同的选举规则。这些差异体现在选票的接收时间、计票时间、以及选票修复机制等方面。她举例说明了不同州在处理邮寄选票和选票修复方面的不同规定,以及这些规定如何影响最终结果的公布时间。她特别提到了北卡罗来纳州允许在选举日后几天进行选票修复的规定,以及这种规定在选举结果胶着的情况下可能产生的影响。她还分析了邮寄选票数量的增加以及2020年疫情期间政策变化对计票时间的影响,并指出宾夕法尼亚州在2020年大选后对计票流程进行了标准化,但该流程仍然预计会很慢,因为该州规定选举日早上7点才能打开邮寄选票信封,晚上8点才能开始计票。此外,她还解释了选票上多个候选人和投票倡议以及选举日排队时间过长等因素如何增加计票和结果核实的复杂性。她认为,虽然技术进步在一定程度上加快了计票速度,但由于政治分歧和对准确性的高要求,人们普遍感觉等待结果的时间变长了。她还分析了可能导致结果延迟的法律挑战,指出对各州或各县计票结果认证的法律挑战是可能导致结果延迟的主要因素,并强调了美国大选计票过程的复杂性,以及这种复杂性如何使其难以作弊。 Megan Crane 深入探讨了美国大选计票流程的复杂性,并分析了导致计票延迟的各种因素。她指出,美国大选实际上是51个独立的选举,每个州和哥伦比亚特区都有自己独特的规则,导致计票方式和时间差异巨大。她详细解释了选票修复机制,以及不同州对选票修复的规定如何影响计票时间。她还分析了邮寄选票数量的增加以及2020年疫情期间政策变化对计票时间的影响,并以宾夕法尼亚州为例,说明了该州新的计票规则如何导致计票流程的延误。此外,她还讨论了选票上多个候选人和投票倡议以及选举日排队时间过长等因素对计票的影响,并指出虽然技术进步加快了计票速度,但政治分歧和对准确性的高要求导致人们感觉等待结果的时间变长了。最后,她还分析了可能导致结果延迟的法律挑战,并指出美国大选计票过程的复杂性,以及这种复杂性如何使其难以作弊。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The 2020 US Presidential election results took almost four days to be announced, and the 2000 results were delayed until mid-December due to a Supreme Court decision. This year's election may also experience delays due to a high number of mail-in ballots, a close race, and new election processes in some states. The complexity stems from the fact that there are 51 separate elections, each with its own rules.
  • 51 separate elections (one in each state and Washington D.C.), each with its own rules.
  • 2020 election took almost four days for results.
  • 2000 election results delayed until mid-December due to Supreme Court.

Shownotes Transcript

In 2020, it took almost four days to find out who had been elected US President. In 2000, the decision from the Supreme Court didn't come until mid-December. This year, a high number of mail-in ballots, the closeness of the race and new election processes in some states may mean it takes longer to determine a winner. Our Washington DC editor Magan Crane joins host Stephen Carroll to discuss. 

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