Here's Why Europe is Unprepared To Defend Itself
07:41 Share

When you're with Amex Business Platinum, you get five times membership rewards points on flights and prepaid hotels booked on amextravel.com. So going the extra mile for your business is even more rewarding. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms apply. Learn more at americanexpress.com. Amex Business. Meta's open source AI is an open invitation. It enables small businesses, startups, students, researchers, and more to download and build with our models at no cost, which means more people can build amazing things.

Because when AI is open source, it's available to all. And when AI is available to all, everyone benefits. Learn more about Meta's open source models at ai.meta.com slash open. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. I'm Caroline Hepker and this is Here's Why, where we take one news story and explain it in just a few minutes with our experts here at Bloomberg.

In 1989, the Berlin Wall fell and the US became the world's only military superpower. NATO, the alliance that was founded 40 years earlier on a pact of mutual defence, had effectively achieved its aim. But now that same alliance faces a new threat from its old adversary and possibly another one from its largest member.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created an inflection point for the military alliance. It's something that's been made all the more acute by Donald Trump's frequent criticism, both whilst he was in office and now that he's running for a second term. I have been very, very direct with Secretary Stoltenberg and members of the alliance in saying that NATO members must finally contribute...

their fair share and meet their financial obligations. NATO was busted until I came along. I said, "Everybody's gonna pay." They said, "Well, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?" I said, "You didn't pay. You're delinquent.

He said, yes, let's say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. This summer, advisers for the Republican presidential nominee floated the idea of demanding that NATO allies spend 3% of their GDP on defence, a warning shot that signals even more tension if the former president does return to the White House.

So here's why Europe is unprepared to defend itself and why it may need to. Joining me now to discuss is Bloomberg's executive editor, Flavia Krauss-Jackson, who oversees our EMEA and Latin America economics and government coverage. Flavia, thank you so much. How much of a concern is it in Europe that a Trump administration could pull the U.S.,

back from its NATO commitment? Short answer is extreme worry. And I think, you know, is Europe able to defend itself? Actually, we can't. There's been chronic underfunding on the defence spending. And you can argue that Trump, with his sort of outlandish talk, has actually given Europe the proverbial kick-up

the bottom that it needed. And, you know, even when you look at someone like Jen Stoltenberg, the outgoing NATO Secretary General, sort of essentially acknowledges that much. And Rutte, who was a former Dutch prime minister who's now incoming, known as a Trump whisperer, has essentially been saying, listen, he's been saying the quiet part out loud, folks.

we really need to be able to do it. I mean, the problem, of course, is having diagnosed the problem, how do you fix it? Because the essential problem here is that you have 21st century wars with 20th century kits. And there wasn't really an understanding of where the conflict

would be like hindsight being 2020 we all remember president macron saying that nato was brain dead we also remember nato essentially kind of putting its focus more in the middle east with syria so sort of it didn't almost see coming the conflict in ukraine even though the writing was kind of on the wall in terms of russian expansionism right 2008 georgia 2014 annexation of crimea

2022, sending the jets to Syria. So there's a question of why NATO hadn't pivoted in the way it should have. And even to me, a non-defence expert, I can see from the data

How few planes, how few ships? The comparison between Europe, the US and other countries, China, for example, it is starkly illustrated. How big is Europe's fighting force? Does it have the capability then to act without US backing? The other big, big question. It simply can't, right? I mean, and you're sort of scraping the barrel right now. 23 out of the 32 members are hitting the 2% target.

even if they were to up this to 3.5, it still wouldn't be enough. You can't conjure an army out of nothing. And it's not just about the numbers. It's also about the quality of the kit, the training. If it's been basically left to gather rust, you're now in a situation where you've got the Czech initiative, you're having to revive old Slovak factories.

In the meantime, you have Putin who's turned his economy into a war economy, pumping the money. So Europe simply isn't able to keep up with that. And the most important point is, is U.S. willing to keep its commitment? Because as we well know, there could be a change of God. Trump is the worst case scenario for Zelensky. But

I don't think we should assume that things are going to be that much better under a Harris administration, especially when you see to a degree what some might say the double standard. I mean, if you have a crisis in Israel with Hamas in Hezbollah, you're essentially giving a carte blanche to Netanyahu, no matter how tense that relationship is.

is it's still the more important relationship. It's still seen as much more vital to the US. And the US simply cannot sort of be the world's policeman of fighting two conflicts and potentially even a third one in Taiwan. The head of the UK's armed forces has talked about the need to be ready for a major direct conflict by 2027. This got a lot of eyeballs, you know, that it was so soon that

you know, major war increasingly likely for Europe. Yeah, absolutely. 2027 is the sort of the date that everyone has in mind in terms of when potentially China decides that's when it's going to go for it, right? So that date is sort of out there in the ether. But, you know, there was also the words of General Sir Patrick earlier this summer that kind of revived the question about UK conscription, right? If you think

It was in the Great Wars that there was a conscription. And some of his words were slightly misinterpreted. But he essentially reintroduced the topic of like, how fit is the UK, especially sort of post Brexit, right? You have France, it's a nuclear power. You have the UK, you have Germany, for all sorts of reasons that we know well is an economic power, but not a military one. In spite of having committed 100 billion, that's a very long term concept.

So when you're looking at the numbers, what could France and the UK conjure between themselves in terms of men? And within a month, you're looking at maybe 20,000 for France and about 30,000, 20,000 for the UK. That simply isn't very much, especially when you sort of compare that to the terrible figures and casualties, you know, 31,000 Ukrainian casualties. So when you're playing sort of the numbers game, you can see how in...

Russia can play the long game and wait it out. That was, of course, General Sir Patrick Sanders who made that comment around conscription in the UK. And you only have to look at the newspaper coverage at the time of those comments to understand the gap between public understanding and this kind of reporting and what the military and what the defence industry is kind of thinking about. My thanks to Bloomberg's executive editor, Flavia Krauss-Jackson, for joining us.

For more explanations like this one from our team of 2,700 journalists and analysts around the world, search for Quick Take on the Bloomberg website and the Bloomberg Business app. I'm Caroline Hepker. This is Here's Why. And we'll be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.

In today's data-driven world, you need real data to shape an effective marketing strategy. That's where Ahrefs comes in. Ahrefs is a marketing intelligence platform powered by big data. It shows you exactly what your target audience is searching for and how you measure up to your competitors. Whether you're making day-to-day marketing decisions or defining your long-term digital strategy, Ahrefs delivers real-time insights that help you grow your brand. Head over to Ahrefs.com to get started.

That's A-H-R-E-F-S dot com. This podcast is supported by BetterHelp, offering licensed therapists you can connect with via video, phone, or chat. Here's BetterHelp Head of Clinical Operations Hesu Jo discussing who can benefit from therapy. I think...

A lot of people think that you're supposed to be going to therapy once you're like having panic attacks every day. But before you get to that point, I think once you start even noticing that you feel a little bit off and you can't maintain this harmony that you once had in relationships, that could be a sign that maybe you want to go talk to somebody.

There's always a benefit in talking to someone because we can all benefit from improved insight about ourselves and who we are and how we behave with other people. So if you're human, that's like a good indicator that you could benefit from talking to somebody. Find out if therapy is right for you. Visit BetterHelp.com today. That's BetterHelp.com.