Here's Why Company Earnings Are So Difficult to Forecast

2024/10/25

Here's Why

Gina Martin-Adams

Gina Martin-Adams 指出公司盈利预测的难度，分析师的共识容易出错，市场价格并不总是与分析师的预期一致。她解释了三种预测公司盈利的方法：分析师共识、公司指引和宏观经济因素。这三种方法各有优缺点，需要综合考虑。她还提到，分析师的预测在过去几年变得不那么精确，而公司指引的准确性相对较高，但仅基于一小部分公司的数据。她分析了公司低估预期以超过预期的现象，以及科技行业和可选消费品行业在预测市场趋势方面的重要性。最后，她强调了盈利报告中细微差别（例如利润率）对股价的影响，以及情绪分析工具在理解这些细微差别对市场影响中的作用。 Stephen Carroll 主要负责引导访谈，提出问题，并对 Gina Martin-Adams 的观点进行总结和补充。他提出了关于分析师预测的准确性、公司指引的作用、以及盈利报告中细微差别对股价影响等问题，引导 Gina Martin-Adams 对这些问题进行更深入的解释和分析。

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What would YOU like to hear about on Bloomberg? Help make shows like ours even better by taking our Bloomberg audience survey).Every earnings season, investors keenly watch to see whether companies are meeting, beating or missing expectations. But how are these expectations set, and is anyone able to accurately predict what companies will say? Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams joins host Stephen Carroll to discuss.

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Here's Why Company Earnings Are So Difficult to Forecast 10:49 Share

Here's Why

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Here's Why Company Earnings Are So Difficult to Forecast