cover of episode Here's Why Bitcoin Investors Love Trump's Win

Here's Why Bitcoin Investors Love Trump's Win

2024/11/15
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Here's Why

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Emily Nicolle
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专注于电动车和能源领域的播客主持人和内容创作者。
唐纳德·特朗普
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唐纳德·特朗普在公开演讲中表达了对加密货币,特别是比特币的积极态度,认为其在短短15年内发展迅速,成为全球第九大最有价值的资产。他认为,比特币的未来发展潜力巨大,并暗示其对加密货币行业的未来发展充满信心。 他的胜选被市场解读为对加密货币行业,特别是比特币的利好消息。这主要基于以下几点:首先,特朗普曾公开表示希望将美国打造成全球加密货币中心,并承诺实施更有利于数字资产发展的政策。其次,他计划撤换现任美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler,后者被认为对加密货币行业采取了相对严格的监管措施。最后,特朗普还表达了建立以比特币计价的战略储备的意愿。这些政策预期将为加密货币市场带来积极影响,吸引更多投资,并促进创新。 然而,特朗普的一些提议,例如要求所有未来的比特币都在美国境内开采,在实际操作中面临诸多挑战,其可行性存疑。 Stephen Carroll作为主持人,主要引导讨论,并就比特币价格的剧烈波动、特朗普的政策主张以及美国与其他国家在争夺全球加密货币中心地位的竞争等问题向Emily Nicolle提问。他客观地呈现了市场对特朗普胜选的不同反应,并引导听众思考这些政策变化的潜在影响。 在节目的过程中,Stephen Carroll主要扮演引导和提问的角色,并没有表达自己明确的观点。他主要关注的是事件本身以及市场对事件的反应,并通过Emily Nicolle的专业分析来帮助听众理解事件的复杂性。 Emily Nicolle作为加密货币记者,对特朗普胜选后比特币价格的剧烈上涨进行了专业分析。她指出,一周内30%的涨幅在当前的市场环境下并不常见,因为机构投资者在市场中扮演着越来越重要的角色。她详细阐述了特朗普的政策主张,包括将美国打造成全球加密货币中心、将所有未来的比特币矿业转移到美国境内以及撤换SEC主席等。她认为,这些政策与拜登政府相对不干预的态度形成鲜明对比,被市场视为利好消息。 此外,Emily Nicolle还分析了特朗普政策的可行性,指出一些政策,例如将所有比特币矿业转移到美国境内,在实际操作中面临巨大挑战。她还比较了美国与中东(迪拜和阿布扎比)、新加坡以及欧洲在争夺全球加密货币中心地位方面的竞争态势,并指出监管清晰度是吸引加密公司最重要的因素。最后,她总结道,比特币价格上涨不仅是因为特朗普的政策承诺,还因为它作为风险资产和通胀对冲工具的特性,以及机构投资者对该资产类别的重新关注。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Following Donald Trump's presidential election victory, Bitcoin's price surged to record highs. This rally was significant even by Bitcoin's volatile standards, prompting the question of the reasons behind this surge.
  • Bitcoin's price reached new records after the US presidential election.
  • Trump's statements at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville are mentioned.
  • The significant price increase is highlighted, even by Bitcoin's volatile standards.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
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Hello, Bitcoiners. It's been a season of superlatives for crypto assets. In just 15 years, Bitcoin has gone from merely an idea posted anonymously on an internet message board to being the ninth most valuable asset anywhere in the world. Can you believe that? Is that right?

And most people have no idea what the hell it is. You know that, right? So what happens when they figure it out? That's going to really be something. That was Donald Trump speaking to the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July. In the days after the US presidential election, the price of Bitcoin soared to new records. Crypto investors are used to seeing major volatility in prices, but even by Bitcoin standards, this was a blistering rally.

Donald Trump has promised more favourable rules for digital assets, a sharp break from the approach taken under Joe Biden. So here's why Bitcoin investors love Trump's win. Our crypto reporter Emily Nicole joins us now for more. Emily, can you put the moves that we've seen in context for us since the election? Is a 30% move in one week normal?

I wouldn't say it's normal anymore. It might have been in the original early days of crypto when assets were a lot more volatile, there was a lot less liquidity in the market. But these days, Bitcoin is pretty firmly in institutional play. We have a lot of institutional investors in the space now, especially since the debut of US spot ETFs tied to the cryptocurrency in January. And so 30% is a pretty big hike. What exactly is Donald Trump proposing that's got investors in this space so excited?

Overall, his main mantra is that he wants to make the US the crypto capital of the planet, I think is the wording he used back in the summer at one of his campaign rallies. He has gone to Bitcoin conferences in the US. He has pledged to make it so that all Bitcoin's mined in future would be mined on US soil. He wants to create a strategic reserve denominated in Bitcoin. And he wants to fire Gary Genza, the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, on day one in office because Genza has been quite a

regular enforcer against crypto companies in recent years, which they view as stymieing innovation in the space. I mean, that's a lot of changes. I mean, how different would you characterize the approach of Donald Trump to this compared to what the US is doing at the moment?

It's very different to the current status quo. The Biden administration has been largely hands off, letting Gary Gensler and the SEC do most of the work when it comes to crypto. There has been an occasional intervention, Biden, for example, vetoing a change to a bill earlier this year that would have allowed banks to custody crypto assets more easily. So there have been some intervention from the Biden administration.

administration and generally that that administration has been viewed as not very crypto friendly. So the reason why Bitcoin is now up so much is because Trump going into office means that people are expecting another four years of Bitcoin rallies, crypto innovation. We're getting back to that 2021 heyday where assets were going crazy and everyone was buying NFTs. Not necessarily that, you know, NFTs will be the next big

thing, but there will be something of that nature. I mean, are the proposals that we've heard from Donald Trump realistic? It's a sweeping set of changes. Some of them are things that he can do, right? Like, you know, he can fire Gary Gensler if he wishes to. He can appoint a new SEC chair that fits better with the views he has. He can instruct

the Treasury to create a strategic reserve to nominate in Bitcoin. But things like asking for all future Bitcoins to be denominated on US soil, that's something that's incredibly hard to do. There's nothing to stop somebody in the UK, Europe, Singapore, anywhere else from setting up a computer to mine some Bitcoin. And that would go against his wishes. I think the reason why he was making that a claim is that a lot of the Bitcoin mining equipment out there in the world is

manufactured and created by Chinese companies, which is obviously a big thing that Donald Trump has issue with. And so he is trying to pledge that, you know, in part of making the U.S. a crypto capital of the planet, Bitcoin should be mined on U.S. soil with U.S. tech. Who is the U.S. competing with when it comes to being the crypto capital of the planet? Are there other places who are even more favorable to this sector?

Because of the last couple of years of enforcement actions against companies on U.S. soil, there has been a definite flee from the U.S. to other hubs where the rules are perceived to be more friendly. The Middle East in particular has been making a major push on crypto over the last couple of years, Dubai and Abu Dhabi being those two big hubs. So a lot of businesses now have significant presences in those areas.

Singapore has also been a big area where a lot of companies have set up shop as well, trying to tackle the Asian market. And then at the end of this year, Europe is set to fully implement its next stage of the crypto rules there, the markets and crypto assets regulation. And with that set to come into force, it's pretty wide ranging. Companies are all thinking about, well, we should set up an entity in Europe too, because

then we can tackle that market as well. The main thing that companies say that they want is regulatory clarity. And with all of those jurisdictions offering it right now and have been for about a year, they are still miles ahead of what the U.S. wants to be. However, the U.S. is still the biggest market in the world, right? So it can afford to wait a little bit. Is this rally just about Trump or are there other factors at play that are pertinent?

pushing Bitcoin and other crypto assets so much higher? I'd say it's largely about Trump, but in kind of different ways, right? So there's the policies that he's promised to implement. Those are all positive things. But there's also the idea that Bitcoin is a risk on asset. It's a way to hedge against inflation, if that's a view that you share. And so a lot of institutions that would have sat on the sidelines over the last few months of the campaigns when it was neck and neck between Trump and Kamala Harris, they

They will now be thinking, OK, it's now safe for us to get back into Bitcoin. It's now safe for us to look at that. We've seen a lot of divergence, for example, between the price of Bitcoin and the price of gold. Bitcoin has become much more popular recently over gold and gold was traditionally one of those safe haven assets. Because of that, there's also, I guess, a general institutional swing into the asset class that comes later.

somewhat because of Trump, but also because it's an asset like any other and it's somewhere that they can now buy into again. Okay, Emily, thank you very much. That's our crypto reporter, Emily Nicole. For more explanations like this from our team of 2700 journalists and analysts around the world, search for Quick Take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business app. I'm Stephen Carroll. This is Here's Why. I'll be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.

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