Deep Dive
Why did the Syrian regime collapse so rapidly?
The regime's key allies, Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia, weakened significantly. Hezbollah was decimated by Israel, Iran was weakened by Hezbollah's losses, and Russia was preoccupied in Ukraine and tired of supporting Assad. Additionally, the rebel groups improved their capabilities and the regime's military was involved in illicit activities, making them unwilling to fight.
Did the insurgent forces have significant outside help?
The groups had maintained relations with Turkey and some Arab Gulf states, but it's questionable how much external support they received during the operation. It appears to be a largely homegrown operation with minimal external involvement.
What challenges does HTS face in transitioning to governance?
HTS was designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. and other governments due to its past affiliations with Al-Qaeda. While it has moderated its views, the U.S. and UK are reevaluating whether to delist it. This designation complicates its transition to governing, but it is expected to play a central role in negotiating an interim governing authority.
How will Assad's fall impact Iran's role in the region?
Assad's fall significantly weakens Iran's regional influence. Iran's ability to resupply Hezbollah and deter potential Israeli attacks is diminished. This could lead to Iran feeling the need to accelerate its nuclear program to maintain deterrence.
What is Russia's strategy for retaining its military bases in Syria?
Russia is discussing with the rebel coalition to retain its major air base and naval facility in Syria. The rebels have shown pragmatism, so it's possible they might make an accommodation with Russia in exchange for recognition or other benefits.
What role could the U.S. play in Syria's transition?
The U.S. could lift economic sanctions, support asset recovery, assist in accountability for war crimes, and invest in reconstruction. These actions would help stabilize Syria and align with U.S. interests.
What are the psychological impacts of Assad's fall on Syrians?
Syrians are experiencing a mix of joy and caution. The collective trauma from decades of dictatorship will take a long time to heal. There is excitement for the future but also recognition of potential challenges ahead.
- The rebels' advance was faster than anticipated.
- Weakening of Assad's allies (Hezbollah, Iran, Russia) played a crucial role.
- Rebel groups improved their capabilities over the last two years.
- Assad's military was weakened by internal issues and lack of fighting spirit.
- The operation was primarily homegrown, with limited external support.
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