cover of episode TPI Replay: The Case for Liberal Realism, With Charles A. Kupchan

TPI Replay: The Case for Liberal Realism, With Charles A. Kupchan

2024/12/24
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Jim Lindsay: 对大战略的定义和重要性进行了探讨,认为大战略是政策制定者用来指导国家行为的智力架构,是平衡战略目标和经济、军事、政治手段的蓝图。强调制定大战略比仅凭经验行事要好,但也要避免选择错误的大战略,因为这可能会适得其反,需要根据世界变化灵活调整。 Charles Kupchan: 详细阐述了自由现实主义的观点,认为权力是世界最重要的力量,但和平是可以实现的,需要考虑权力平衡以外的因素,例如国内政治。他认为理解国内政治对制定美国对外政策至关重要,要理解党派分歧和意识形态差异。解释了国际体系中的极点,并分析了权力的构成,包括物质方面(经济和军事实力)以及政治和意识形态方面(影响力)。 总结了二战后美国大战略的演变:从孤立主义到自由国际主义,再到如今需要寻找新的平衡点。预测未来世界将是多极的,并强调美国国内政治稳定对有效应对这一局面至关重要。认为美国大战略的目标不应是追求胜利,而是与其他大国合作,特别是在应对全球性挑战方面,并认为阻止中国崛起是不现实的。 认为美国应该努力在中俄之间制造裂痕,但承认这并非易事。认为美国需要更好地理解发展中国家的需求,并提供更有竞争力的方案来吸引它们。认为美国与非民主国家合作在政治上具有挑战性,但从地缘政治角度来看可能是必要的。认为孤立主义在当今世界行不通,美国需要在战略收缩和过度扩张之间找到平衡,并解决国内经济问题以获得国内支持。区分新保守主义、优先战略、战略收缩和离岸平衡:新保守主义与优先战略相似,但带有更多意识形态色彩;战略收缩是可持续的中间道路,而离岸平衡则可能导致战略脱离。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the definition of grand strategy according to Charles Kupchan?

Grand strategy is the intellectual architecture that guides statecraft, balancing strategic ends with available means such as economic, military, and political resources. It also includes guiding assumptions about how the world works and the main fault lines in international relations.

Why does Charles Kupchan describe himself as a liberal realist?

Kupchan identifies as a liberal realist because he believes in the importance of power in international relations but also recognizes that peace and cooperation are possible, as seen in relationships like the U.S.-Canada border. He also emphasizes the role of domestic politics and ideological differences in shaping foreign policy.

How does Charles Kupchan view the current international system?

Kupchan sees the international system transitioning from unipolarity to multipolarity, with the U.S. facing a more fragmented world where power is increasingly diffused among multiple actors like China, India, and other emerging economies. He believes this will lead to shifting and unstable coalitions.

What is Charles Kupchan's view on U.S. grand strategy after World War II?

Kupchan identifies two main periods: the era of isolationism from 1789 to 1941, where the U.S. avoided strategic commitments, and the era of liberal internationalism from 1941 onward, where the U.S. sought to project power and spread its ideals through partnerships and multilateralism. He sees the current era as a transition to a new grand strategy.

Why does Charles Kupchan believe the U.S. cannot return to isolationism?

Isolationism is no longer feasible due to the interconnectedness of the modern world, including economic interdependence, rapid missile technology, and global challenges like pandemics. However, Kupchan argues that the U.S. should avoid overreach and adopt a more sustainable foreign policy that aligns with domestic support.

What role does Charles Kupchan see for countries like India, Brazil, and Nigeria in the future international order?

Kupchan believes these countries will play a pivotal role as they navigate between the U.S.-led Western bloc and China-led groupings. They will seek deals that benefit their own interests, making it essential for the U.S. to understand and compete with China's offers in areas like infrastructure and investment.

How does Charles Kupchan view the relationship between Russia and China?

Kupchan sees the Russia-China relationship as pragmatic and not deeply rooted, driven largely by the personal ties between Putin and Xi Jinping. He believes there are opportunities to drive a wedge between them, especially as underlying tensions and mutual distrust persist in their bureaucracies and publics.

What does Charles Kupchan suggest as the goal of U.S. grand strategy in a multipolar world?

Kupchan advocates for a pragmatic approach that involves both competition and cooperation with rising powers like China. The goal should be to manage the transition to a multipolar world, avoid great power war, and tackle global challenges like climate change and nuclear proliferation through shared leadership.

Why does Charles Kupchan believe the liberal rules-based order is not universally appealing?

Kupchan argues that many countries in the Global South view the liberal rules-based order as a system that benefits the West and American power, rather than a fair and equitable global framework. He suggests the U.S. needs to better understand and address the needs of these countries to maintain influence.

What is Charles Kupchan's view on the neoconservative strategy of primacy?

Kupchan sees neoconservatism as closely aligned with a strategy of primacy, which seeks to maintain U.S. dominance and spread democracy by force if necessary. He believes this approach led to overreach and unsustainable commitments, contributing to the current domestic skepticism about foreign policy.

Chapters
This chapter defines grand strategy as the intellectual framework guiding statecraft, emphasizing its importance in balancing strategic goals with available resources. It highlights the need for a sound grand strategy to avoid reactive, seat-of-the-pants decision-making in a complex world.
  • Grand strategy is the intellectual architecture guiding statecraft.
  • It's a blueprint balancing strategic ends and economic, military, and political means.
  • Essential for effective statecraft, avoiding reactive decision-making.

Shownotes Transcript

Charles A. Kupchan, a senior fellow at CFR and a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how the United States should adapt to an era of renewed great power competition and domestic disagreement over what it should seek to achieve abroad. This episode is the third in a special TPI series on U.S. grand strategy.

 

This episode first aired: July 30, 2024

 

Mentioned on the Episode 

 

“A New U.S. Grand Strategy: The Case for Liberal Internationalism, With John Ikenberry),” The President’s Inbox

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Richard Haass*, *Foreign Policy Begins at Home: The Case for Putting America’s House in Order)

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Charles A. Kupchan*, *Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself From the World)

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Jake Sullivan*,* “Renewing American Economic Leadership)”

 

Jake Sullivan, “The Sources of American Power: A Foreign Policy for a Changed World),” Foreign Affairs

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/new-us-grand-strategy-case-liberal-realism-charles-kupchan)