cover of episode The Taiwan Challenge, With Oriana Mastro and David Sacks (Election 2024, Episode 5)

The Taiwan Challenge, With Oriana Mastro and David Sacks (Election 2024, Episode 5)

2024/10/15
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David Sacks
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Jim Lindsay
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Oriana Mastro
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David Sacks认为美国对台政策不明确，既不承认台湾主权，也不承认中国对其拥有主权。这种战略模糊性，一方面威慑北京，另一方面也避免台北冒险。但他认为，面对日益强势的中国，这种策略是否适用值得商榷。他还指出，台湾是中国与美国关系中的一个关键问题，涉及到美国的战略利益、经济利益和国际秩序。 Oriana Mastro则认为，中国军队现代化进程的目标一直是武力攻台，2027年只是下一个五年计划的截止日期，并非最后期限。她认为，对台战争将是空海战，而非地面战，习近平对海军和空军的重视是为武力攻台做准备。她还指出，近年来，人们对中国武力统一台湾的担忧加剧，主要是因为中方军事实力的增强。她认为，将中国攻台与诺曼底登陆作比较并不恰当，因为现代战争中精确制导武器的作用更加重要。她还指出，美国缺乏足够的军事力量来阻止中国入侵台湾，台湾在没有美国直接军事干预的情况下无法自卫。 她认为，中国对台湾的灰色地带行动不太可能迫使台湾投降，因为台湾人民强烈反对“一国两制”。她还认为，美国对台政策并非要阻止台湾与中国统一，而是要防止中国使用武力。如果中国使用武力攻台，这将对美国的利益构成巨大威胁，因为这将表明一个强大的政府可以通过武力实现其目标。她还指出，中国试图控制各个国家及其人民的方方面面，这与美国的价值观相冲突。 Oriana Mastro还强调，即使台湾无法充分自卫，美国仍然应该帮助台湾，因为这符合美国的战略利益和价值观。她认为，美国面临的最大挑战是管理与中国的关系，下一任总统应将重点放在维护美国在该地区的地位和国际自由秩序上。她还建议美国应保持战略模糊，避免做出可能被中国视为挑衅的声明，并加强自身实力，制定明确的发展中国家战略，并改善其在台湾周围的军事态势。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the ambiguous relationship between the US and Taiwan. The US doesn't recognize Taiwan's sovereignty but also doesn't endorse China's claim. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 governs unofficial ties, including robust security cooperation despite the absence of a formal mutual defense treaty. The concept of "strategic ambiguity" in US policy toward Taiwan is discussed.
  • US does not recognize Taiwan's sovereignty but doesn't recognize China's claim either
  • Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 governs unofficial US-Taiwan ties
  • Strategic ambiguity: US doesn't explicitly commit to defending Taiwan but maintains the capacity to do so
  • Debate on strategic ambiguity vs. clarity in the context of a more assertive China

Shownotes Transcript

Oriana Mastro, a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at CFR, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss U.S. policy toward Taiwan in light of talk that China might seek to compel the island’s reunification with the mainland. This episode is the fifth in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2024 presidential election and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

 

Mentioned on the Episode

 

Council on Foreign Relations, China's Belt and Road: Implications for the United States)

 

Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China)

 

Oriana Skylar Mastro, “The Pivot That Wasn’t),” Foreign Affairs

 

Oriana Skylar Mastro*,* “This Is What America Is Getting Wrong About China and Taiwan),” New York Times 

 

Oriana Skylar Mastro, Upstart: How China Became a Great Power)

 

David Sacks, “Taiwan’s Trump Conundrum),” CFR.org.

 

The U.S. Election and Foreign Policy), CFR.org

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/taiwan-challenge-oriana-mastro-and-david-sacks-election-2024-episode-5)