The China Challenge, With Liza Tobin and Jake Werner (Election 2024, Episode 6)

2024/10/22

The President’s Inbox

Jake Werner

Liza Tobin

Liza Tobin认为美中关系应被定义为系统性竞争，而非简单的竞争，这种关系缺乏明确规则，类似于街头斗殴。她认为美国长期以来未能认识到中国共产党的真实意图和根本价值观差异，导致对华政策从接触转向竞争。她还指出，中国共产党旨在使中国成为全球主导力量，这体现在其军事、经济、政治、文化和信息等各个领域，其目标是成为世界主导力量，而非仅仅在亚洲地区称霸。她认为美国对华政策应兼顾短期现实和长期愿景，既要应对当前竞争，又要为未来更自由、开放和繁荣的中国创造可能性，但她同时认为，在当前的中国共产党政权下，实现这一目标是不可能的。 Jake Werner认为美中关系正走向严重的冲突，因为双方都将对方视为自身成功的最大障碍，这将深刻影响国际秩序的未来。他认为美中关系恶化的关键在于2008年金融危机后全球经济形势的变化，导致两国精英阶层对自身利益的认知发生转变，不再将彼此的成功视为相辅相成。他认为中国共产党维护政权稳定和经济增长的目标并非一成不变，会随着国内外形势的变化而调整。他并不认为中国已经达到权力巅峰，而是认为中国正在押注于发展先进技术，这可能会成功，但也可能带来意想不到的后果。他建议美国应反思单极领导的失败，与发展中国家合作，解决全球不平等和不安全问题，从而改变与中国的对抗性关系，并认为美中双方在稳定繁荣的全球经济、气候变化等问题上存在合作的可能性，关键在于双方能否摆脱相互指责的局面，认识到彼此在许多问题上的立场并非完全对立。虽然双方存在分歧，但都认为应该保持沟通，避免误判。

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Shownotes Transcript

Liza Tobin, senior director for economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project, and Jake Werner, acting director of the East Asia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the challenges the next president will face navigating relations with China. This episode is the sixth in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2024 presidential election and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Mentioned on the Episode

Robert Atkinson and Liza Tobin, "The Missing Piece in America's Strategy for Techno-Economic Rivalry with China)," Lawfare

The U.S. Election and Foreign Policy), CFR.org

Jake Werner, "A Program for Progressive China Policy)," Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/china-challenge-liza-tobin-and-jake-werner-election-2024-episode-6)

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Shownotes Transcript

The China Challenge, With Liza Tobin and Jake Werner (Election 2024, Episode 6)