Kantar Market Share
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Grocery Guru Episode #38: Have Morrisons and Asda Taken Their Eye Off the Ball? Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith in the thirty-eighth episode of the Grocery Guru. They discuss the latest Kantar market share showing 12 weeks to 20th July 2021. Asda and Morrisons losing share, Tesco gaining, and Aldi & Lidl showing flat growth. You Can Read the Full Kantar Market Share Transcript Below: Darren A. Smith: Hello, and welcome to your weekly episode with The Grocery Guru. This is episode 38 and we are here with that guru, Andrew Grant. Andrew, how are you? Andrew Grant: Good morning. Darren A. Smith: Now, Andrew. I know that the market shares have just been published and you've got a unique take on what you think is happening. Andrew Grant: I'm not sure about a unique take, but yeah, we always wait for Kantar data that comes out 20th-ish of every month, because I think it's the most comprehensive view of what's happening in the market. I think we've covered it maybe two or three times since the pandemic started. And yeah, there's some subtleties in the figures for me. I mean, overall, total multiples are still up 11% on two years ago. So as we said, a few episodes ago, with the pandemic technically ending, people are going to go back out to pubs and restaurants. They're not going to do as much home shopping and therefore, the multiples are probably in a fairly rough ride during the summer.

Yeah, I wouldn't say it's a rough ride, maybe a few little bumps. I mean, they're down 4.6% on the year. Tesco down 3.7, Sainsbury's down three, so that's probably not too bad. So probably expecting worse.

What are your expectations?

  Darren A. Smith: Let me just put that back in people's heads. So year on two years ago for the last, what, 12 weeks to 23rd of July, the multiples are up 11%. That's right, isn't it? Andrew Grant: On two years ago. Darren A. Smith: On two years ago. So up 11%, but on a year ago they're down 5%, give or take. Andrew Grant: And obviously a year ago was the peak of the pandemic. So yeah, if you take a two year view, the grocers have been really successful at riding this pandemic. But within the numbers, a few interesting things. Co-op and Iceland are the worst performers, not surprisingly, a Co-op is on every street corner.

They don't have many big superstores, so they were the big winners of the pandemic when people just literally didn't want to shop at a big store where there were those other people who could potentially pass on the virus, they popped to the local Co-op. And to a lesser extent, I guess, Iceland being sort of city center or town center location. So I can understand why Co-op figures don't look brilliant, although they're us still up in double digit from two years ago. Darren A. Smith: So they're up 12% on two years but they're down 15% year on year? Andrew Grant: Yeah. But what's for me is I think a little bit of the slightest star of some blue water between Tesco and Sainsbury's and Asda and Morrisons is starting to appear. So Aldi and Lidl have come back, they're flat on last year. So probably something in there about they don't have home shopping, and home shopping is down. I forget the numbers. You may have them more to have. Oh yeah. So online groceries dropped by 2.6%. Darren A. Smith: Yep. Andrew Grant: So I think Aldi and Lidl have picked that up. So Aldi and Lidl are flat. Tesco seems to be doing really well. Tesco's put on 4.4 points of market share is almost unheard of in the last 10 years, but Asda are losing market share as are Morrisons and twice the decline of Tesco and Sainsbury's on a year. Darren A. Smith: So we've got Tesco hitting the high of 27% market share. Andrew Grant: Yep. Darren A. Smith: They're doing well. And you think they're stealing that predominantly from Asda and Morrisons? Andrew Grant: No, no, actually. I think it's a bit more complex than that. I think Tesco in particular, and we've said it before,