cover of episode EPISODE 89:对话冯冠邦|问道新质基建Alpha

EPISODE 89:对话冯冠邦|问道新质基建Alpha

2024/10/15
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特许金融街

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冯冠邦
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冯冠邦:基础设施投资具有独特的特性,例如刚需性、受监管性、高门槛等,这使其现金流稳定可预测,适合长期投资。 基础设施投资市场规模巨大,参与者众多,投资人可以通过多种方式参与,例如债券、股权投资计划、二级市场交易等。 国有资本和民营资本在基础设施投资中具有互补性,国有资本资金成本低、规模大、专业性强,民营资本决策速度快,可以弥补国有企业效率不足。 近十几年来,我专注于清洁能源和数据中心领域,是因为看到了能源革命带来的巨大机遇以及数据中心对能源的巨大需求。 判断风电、光伏项目投资价值,需要研究技术进步、成本下降空间以及与煤电的竞争力。风电、光伏、核电等发电方式互补,核电未来可能成为骨干电源,新能源以风电光伏为主。 风光发电投资需关注地域、电网配套、与负荷匹配、储能等因素,构建投资组合需考虑协同效应。基础设施投资周期长,需关注气候变化、自然条件等不确定性因素,采取风险缓释措施。 财税政策和补贴对清洁能源行业影响较大,但未来补贴力度可能减弱,行业竞争力将更依赖自身发展。能源价格市场化改革将对电源侧、电网侧、负荷侧产生巨大影响,需调整投资思路,学习国际经验。 储能是新能源发展的必然趋势,但独立储能投资风险较大,建议与新能源发电项目结合。能源基础设施投资的退出路径主要包括引入长期投资者、公募REITs等。 中国市场的吸引力在于其巨大的规模和发展潜力,以及相对不透明的市场环境带来的投资机遇。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are the key characteristics of infrastructure investments that distinguish them from other investment categories?

Infrastructure investments are characterized by their provision of essential services like highways, power grids, and water supply, which are societal necessities. These investments are underpinned by long-term contracts or regulatory frameworks, ensuring stable cash flows. The industry is highly regulated, often with profit caps, making it predictable and less volatile compared to other investments like real estate or TMT. Additionally, infrastructure projects have high entry barriers due to complex operations and strict regulations, making them suitable for long-term investors like pension funds and family offices.

What is the estimated market size for infrastructure investments in China, and who are the main participants?

The infrastructure investment market in China is enormous, estimated to be in the range of tens to hundreds of trillions of RMB. For example, China’s new energy sector alone has reached a total installed capacity of 12,000 GW, with investments totaling around 5 trillion RMB. The market is dominated by state-owned enterprises, but private capital also plays a significant role, particularly in early-stage development and investment. Investors can participate through debt instruments, equity investments, and REITs, both private and public.

Why has Feng Guanbang focused on clean energy and data centers in recent years?

Feng Guanbang shifted focus to clean energy and data centers due to the significant potential for growth and disruption in these sectors. He identified the energy revolution as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity, with China’s new energy sector expected to grow 12-fold in the coming decades. Data centers, which require high-quality power, align with his investment philosophy of transforming low-value energy into high-value energy. This strategic focus allows him to build expertise, reduce capital costs, and complement state-owned enterprises in these rapidly evolving industries.

What are the main exit strategies for energy infrastructure investments?

The primary exit strategies for energy infrastructure investments include transitioning the assets into mature infrastructure packages that can be held by long-term investors. This is often achieved through public or private REITs. Feng Guanbang’s approach involves using private equity strategies to build valuable assets during the transition period, stabilize earnings over 3-5 years, and then exit by introducing long-term capital to hold the assets, providing a smooth exit for PE investors.

What challenges currently constrain the development of the energy storage market?

The energy storage market faces several challenges, including rapid technological advancements that risk making existing investments obsolete. Independent energy storage policies are unclear, and there is no long-term guarantee for returns. Additionally, the market is highly competitive, with costs dropping significantly due to oversupply. Feng Guanbang suggests that energy storage should be integrated with renewable energy projects to mitigate risks and enhance value, rather than being pursued as standalone investments.

Chapters
本部分对基础设施投资进行了定义,并阐述了其区别于其他投资类型的几个核心特性:提供社会必需服务、现金流受监管或合同约束,以及较高的进入门槛。这些特性使得基础设施投资成为一种相对稳定、可预测的投资品类,适合长期配置。
  • 基础设施投资提供社会必需服务(例如高速公路、电网、供水等)
  • 其现金流通常受监管或合同约束,相对稳定
  • 进入门槛高,需要专业知识和运营能力
  • 适合养老金、寿险和家族基金等长期投资

Shownotes Transcript

策划丨董嘉琦 制作人丨Sherry WANG、Valeria DENG、Ian LI 图文剪辑 | 邓筠凡 统筹 | 唐嘉澍 董嘉琦 新型基础设施是推动全社会数字转型、智能升级、融合创新的基础性、公共性设施,大力发展新基建是我国实施创新驱动发展战略、推动经济社会高质量发展的重要支撑,近年来有关建设工作已取得显著的成效。根据中国信息通信研究院测算,“十四五”期间我国新基建投资将达到10.6万亿,占全社会基础设施投资10%左右,在传统基础设施投资增长放缓的背景下,新基建已经形成了经济社会发展的关键新动能。 本期节目是特许金融街开播以来首次聚焦基础设施投资,我们有幸邀请到行业资深专家冯冠邦先生,带大家一起探索基础设施投资领域的“募投管退”。如何脚踏实地做好投资研究?如何实现细分赛道的组合协同?耐心资本如何管好风险?新质生产力如何为基础设施投资注入新的活力,使其焕发新生? 且听嘉宾娓娓道来—— 「本期嘉宾」 冯冠邦,CFA,于2012年从中国平安离职,带领团队创建了中广核三期产业投资基金的普通合伙人,担任该基金投资总监兼执行事务合伙人委派代表,并于2015-2019年出任中广核产业投资基金管理有限公司总经理。冯冠邦先生主导完成了位于中国、大洋洲、美国、欧洲和东南亚总值超过1,000亿元人民币的股权投资项目,涉及风力发电、光伏发电、火力发电、能源输配、水务以及交通基础设施领域。他曾成功主导创建并发起了多只在澳大利亚证券交易所上市的基础设施产业投资基金、国内外私募股权投资基金。 本期要点 一、基础设施投资的发展现状 01:24  什么是基础设施投资?这类投资有哪些特点是区别于其他投资品类的? 07:43  基础设施投资这个领域的市场规模大概有多少?主要的市场参与者有哪些?投资人能够参与的投资品类有哪些? 12:19  基础设施的投资在国内来说感觉还是国有企业参与的居多,是这样的吗?有没有哪些是社会资本可以参与的?这两类资本各自的定位和优势是哪些? 二、能源类基础设施的投资、管理与退出 17:35  冠邦总近十几年来重点开始专注在清洁能源、数据中心这个细分领域的原因是什么? 22:01  冠邦总是如何判断在风电、光伏等发电项目的领域哪些企业更具有投资价值的? 26:02  除了风光电之外,在我们能看到的清洁发电方式中,还有哪些技术值得关注,更容易得到大规模应用,更具备投资价值?这几种发电方式之间是属于互补的关系还是更偏向于竞争的发展关系呢? 30:20  风和光这类的可再生能源发电的方式,除了自然资源禀赋外还需要关注哪些重点?在构建投资组合的时候如何考虑组合与分散投资的策略? 35:19  在风电、光伏领域,面对气候、自然条件等特有的不确定因素,会采取哪些风险缓释措施? 39:10  目前在“双碳”目标的大背景下,风电、光伏这类0碳、低碳的清洁能源是受到政策大力支持的,冠邦总是如何看待财税、补贴政策对行业的影响? 43:44  在深化能源价格市场化改革的过程中,对整个清洁能源行业和产业链上的各类企业,包括电源侧、电网侧、负荷侧分别产生哪些影响? 47:24  冠邦总对储能领域整体发展的看法?现阶段主要制约储能市场发展的挑战有哪些? 53:01  说到投资就离不开退出,对于能源类基础设施投资来说,一般主要的退出路径有哪些? 三、嘉宾个人经历分享 55:45  作为一位澳大利亚籍华裔,心目中中国市场的吸引力在哪里? 59:29  冠邦总是保险精算专业,是出于什么样的原因决定同时成为一名CFA持证人? 特许金融街是一档由北京金融分析师协会(CFA Society Beijing)发起,面向社会各界听众的金融访谈类播客,我们会邀请各金融细分领域的朋友们一起探讨资本市场热点,金融职场等与金融相关的热点话题。 微信公众号:cfabeijing** 微博:北京金融分析师协会** 订阅微信公众号,可查看往期播客图文版。 微信搜索个人微信号CFABJ-podcast**,添加特许金融街小助手,即可加入我们的听众群,解锁独家福利,与主播和嘉宾互动交流。