cover of episode EPISODE 86:Conversation with Thomas Coleman

EPISODE 86:Conversation with Thomas Coleman

2024/8/21
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特许金融街

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@Thomas Coleman : 我从金融行业转向学术界是一个偶然的机遇,这让我有机会将二十多年的金融从业经验与学术研究相结合。我的研究涵盖了风险管理、通货膨胀、收入不平等以及固定收益市场等多个领域,并积极利用大数据和人工智能进行社会科学和政策研究。在教学中,我努力将理论与实践相结合,帮助学生更好地理解金融领域的复杂概念。我撰写的CFA教材旨在解释风险管理的基本原理和实践方法,并帮助读者理解如何量化和管理风险。 在风险管理方面,我认为金融机构面临的最大挑战是如何量化和管理非货币风险,例如企业风险、运营风险和声誉风险。传统的风险管理指标往往不足以应对复杂和动荡的全球市场。我们需要超越传统的指标,关注那些难以量化但同样重要的风险因素,并建立一个强大的组织来应对意外事件。 关于通货膨胀和政府债务,我认为传统的货币理论在解释最近的通货膨胀方面存在不足。财政价格水平理论(FTPL)提供了一个更全面的视角,它认为政府债务的现值等于未来税收的现值。通过分析政府支出、税收和市场预期,我们可以更好地理解通货膨胀的成因和政府债务的可持续性。 在收入不平等方面,我的研究表明,仅仅关注顶尖1%的收入分配是不够的,我们需要关注更广泛的收入分配情况。传统的基于税收数据的研究方法存在缺陷,我们应该考虑更全面的数据,例如包括政府转移支付。通过分析税收、转移支付以及其他相关因素,我们可以更准确地衡量收入不平等的程度及其对社会的影响。 关于大数据和人工智能,我认为它们是重要的工具,可以帮助我们更好地理解世界,但它们不能取代对原因和理论的思考。我们需要结合定量分析和定性分析,才能更好地理解社会和经济现象。 关于中国经济,我认为中国在过去几十年取得了巨大的发展成就,特别是在减贫方面。但是,我们也需要关注中国经济面临的挑战,例如收入不平等和国际政治环境的变化。 对于未来的金融专业人士,我的建议是将理论学习与实践经验相结合,培养扎实的数量分析技能,并具备批判性思维能力。只有这样,才能更好地应对金融领域的挑战和机遇。 @主持人 : 本期节目非常荣幸邀请到Thomas Coleman先生,他拥有超过二十年的金融行业经验,并在学术界取得了显著成就。他的研究涵盖了风险管理、通货膨胀、收入不平等等多个关键领域,并积极利用大数据进行社会科学和政策研究。我们今天将与Coleman先生探讨他从金融行业到学术界的转型,他的开创性研究,以及他对当前美国和中国经济形势的深刻见解。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Thomas Coleman transition from finance to academia?

Thomas Coleman's transition from finance to academia was serendipitous. After retiring, a colleague suggested he apply for a position at the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago. Despite initial doubts, he successfully made the shift, starting as Executive Director and later becoming a lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy in 2015.

What inspired Thomas Coleman to write his influential books on risk management?

Thomas Coleman was asked by a colleague to write a practical guide for the CFA Institute Research Foundation. Initially intended to be a short 100-page document, it expanded to 350 pages as he delved deeper into explaining risk management concepts, which he had practiced throughout his career but had not fully articulated the 'why' behind them.

What is the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) and why does Coleman find it compelling?

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) posits that the real value of government debt equals the present value of future primary surpluses. Coleman finds it compelling because it offers a more comprehensive framework for understanding inflation and government debt, addressing limitations of traditional monetary theories that have struggled to explain recent economic phenomena like post-2008 and pandemic-era inflation.

How does Thomas Coleman view the role of AI and big data in policy research?

Thomas Coleman sees AI and big data as valuable tools for understanding the world, but emphasizes they are not substitutes for critical thinking. While they enhance data analysis and market behavior insights, they cannot replace the need to understand underlying causes and motivations in policy research.

What are Thomas Coleman's thoughts on China's economic recovery post-pandemic?

Thomas Coleman acknowledges the global impact of China's economic recovery but refrains from making specific predictions due to limited expertise. He draws parallels between current U.S.-China tensions and past U.S.-Japan trade pressures, suggesting that such geopolitical and economic challenges are part of a broader historical pattern.

What advice does Thomas Coleman offer to aspiring finance professionals in China?

Coleman advises aspiring finance professionals to blend academic rigor with practical market knowledge. He emphasizes the importance of mastering quantitative skills while staying attuned to real-world applications, as successful risk management requires both theoretical understanding and qualitative people management.

Chapters
Thomas Coleman先生分享了他从金融行业转向学术界的经历,这并非规划,而是一次充满机遇的意外。他结合自身经验,探讨了如何将实践经验融入教学,帮助学生更有效地理解金融理论和实践。
  • Coleman先生在金融业拥有20多年经验,后转型进入学术界。
  • 他认为金融实践和学术理论并非对立,而是相互补充的关系。
  • 他强调将实际经验融入教学,帮助学生理解理论的应用和局限性。

Shownotes Transcript

策划丨董嘉琦

Executive Producer - Frances D

制作人丨PallasCatFin

Production Manager – PallasCatFin

录制 | 周佳良

Audio Recording – Jason CHOU

剪辑图文 | 邓筠凡

Editing – Junfan DENG

统筹 | 唐嘉澍 董嘉琦

Coordinator – Jason TANG, Frances D

在本期由CFA北京协会主办的China Chartered Chat播客节目中,我们非常荣幸地邀请到了ThomasColeman先生作为特别嘉宾。

Coleman先生是芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院的高级讲师,拥有超过二十年的金融行业经验,在交易、风险管理和量化建模方面有着丰富的专业知识。他曾担任Moore Capital Management, LLC的量化分析和风险控制负责人,并且是伦敦对冲基金管理公司Aequilibrium Investments, Ltd.的创始成员之一。

此外,Coleman先生还撰写了影响深远的CFA教科书,如《量化风险管理》和《风险管理实务》。他的研究涵盖了通货膨胀、收入不平等和固定收益市场等关键领域,并积极利用大数据进行社会科学和政策研究。

在今天的播客中,我们将有机会直接聆听Coleman先生的分享,讨论他从金融行业转型到学术界的经历,他的开创性研究,以及他对当前美国和中国经济形势的深刻见解。这是Coleman教授第二次参加北京协会的分享活动,我们非常高兴他再次莅临分享他的专业知识。

金融业要求具备专业技能、将知识与实践结合的能力,以及与时俱进的持续发展。我们希望本期节目能够为您拓宽视野,明确未来发展方向,并帮助您在成长与成功的道路上更进一步。

In thisepisode of China Chartered Chat, hosted by the CFA Beijing Society, we areextremely honoured to welcome Mr. Thomas Coleman as our special guest.

Mr.Coleman is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Chicago Harris School ofPublic Policy and has over two decades of experience in the finance industry,with expertise in trading, risk management, and quantitative modelling. He hasheld significant positions, such as Head of Quantitative Analysis and RiskControl at Moore Capital Management, LLC, and as a founding member ofAequilibrium Investments, Ltd., a London-based hedge fund manager.

Mr.Coleman is also the author of influential CFA textbooks, including QuantitativeRisk Management and A Practical Guide to Risk Management. His research spanscritical areas such as inflation, income inequality, and fixed income markets,and he is active in leveraging big data for social science and policy research.

Intoday's podcast, we have a rare opportunity to hear directly from Mr. Colemanas we discuss his transition from the finance industry to academia, hisgroundbreaking research, and his insights into the current economic landscapein the US and China. This is Mr. Coleman's second visit to the BeijingAssociation, and we are thrilled to have him back to share his expertise.

Thefinance industry demands specialized skills, the ability to integrate knowledgewith practice, and continuous development to keep up with the times. We hopethis episode broadens your horizons, clarifies your vision, and helps you onthe path to growth and success.

「本期内容」

1 职业生涯 Career

偶然的旅程:Thomas Coleman如何从金融界转向学术界并迎来新机遇

The Serendipitous Path: How ThomasColeman's Transition from Finance to Academia Led to New Opportunities

2 风险管理  Risk Management 

形成风险管理洞察力:是什么激发了Thomas Coleman撰写其具有影响力的著作《量化风险管理》和《风险管理实务》

Crafting Risk Management Insights: WhatInspired Thomas Coleman to Write His Influential Books "Quantitative RiskManagement" and “A Practical Guide to Risk Management”

3 风险管理 Risk Management 

超越传统指标:探讨动荡全球市场中风险管理的未来

Beyond Traditional Measures: Exploring theFuture of Risk Management in a Volatile Global Market

4 经济学 Economics 

价格水平的财政理论:理解通胀与债务的新方法

Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A NewApproach to Understanding Inflation and Debt

5 经济学 Economics 

重新思考收入不平等:分析前1%收入群体及其更广泛的经济影响

Rethinking Income Inequality: Analysing theTop 1% and the Broader Economic Implications

6 固定收益 Fixed Income 

美国国债收益率曲线历史:当今市场面临的挑战与见解

Historical US Treasury Yield Curves:Challenges and Insights for Today's Market

7 技术 Technology 

人工智能和大数据在政策研究中的角色:机遇与挑战

The Role of AI and Big Data in PolicyResearch: Opportunities and Challenges

8 中国 China 

中国经济复苏:在地缘政治紧张局势下的见解

China's Economic Recovery: Insights AmidGeopolitical Tensions

9 建议 Advice

理论与实践的桥梁:对中国未来金融专业人士的建议

Bridging Theory and Practice: Advice forAspiring Finance Professionals in China

「本期嘉宾」

Thomas Coleman, Senior Lecturer, Harris School of Public Policy,  University of Chicago

Thomas Coleman, PhD'84, is focused on teaching students about financial markets. In 2012 Coleman returned to the University of Chicago, first as Executive Director and Senior Advisor at the Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics and then in 2015 as lecturer at Harris. Prior to returning to the University of Chicago, Coleman worked in the finance industry for over twenty years, with considerable experience in trading, risk management, and quantitative modeling. Positions included head of Quantitative Analysis and Risk Control at Moore Capital Management, LLC; a director and founding member of Aequilibrium Investments, Ltd., a London-based hedge fund manager; roles on the sell side in fixed income derivatives research and trading at TMG Financial Products, Lehman Brothers, and S.G. Warburg in London.

Coleman is the author of Quantitative Risk Management, published by Wiley and A Practical Guide to Risk Management published by the Research Foundation of the CFA Institute. Before entering the financial industry, Coleman was an academic, teaching graduate and undergraduate economics and finance at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. Coleman earned his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago, and his BA in physics from Harvard. 

「本期制作人」

PallasCatFin has over 15 years of experience in the financial industry, including roles at Big Four accounting firms, management consulting companies, and investment banks. His work spans front, middle, and back-office operations within the investment sector, with professional experience in both Chinese and international markets. He holds CFA, CPA, and CISA certifications and is also a co-founder of a global finance and U.S. equity analysis community.

特许金融街是一档由北京金融分析师协会(CFA Society Beijing)发起,面向社会各界听众的金融访谈类播客,我们会邀请各金融细分领域的朋友们一起探讨资本市场热点,金融职场等与金融相关的热点话题。

微信公众号:cfabeijing

微博:北京金融分析师协会

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