BTC to Hit $100K by Year-End? The Countdown Begins! | Crypto Town Hall
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Morning, everyone, get the music off. Happy thursday, easter and standard time back once again with crypto town hall and what a week IT has been for crypto. Obviously uh markets starting to, I think, pricing or comprehend the red sweep trump uh office, the presently popular vote, seemingly congress also going red, senate also going red.

Uh, a lot of discussion as to how accurate Polly market was and how inaccurate largely the polls were. I was the conversation that we had constantly here just really a lot to uh start to absorb here in the aftermath of the election. And certainly, markets are doing IT as well.

We saw, I believe, yesterday was the best day history for the S N. P. On a day after election. So obviously the initial reaction of markets, we saw w at that point, of course, uh, extremely bullish, with people believing clearly markets believe in the trip is going to be very， very good uh, for stocks and all other assets. Biton obviously made a new all time high on election night.

Not only did not make a new all time high, but in making that all time high from what I saw, the charts highest olid volume of any single day previous all time, I actually in march and closed, uh, meaningfully, I think above that line of the previous all time high. Technically sort of I confirmed break out on a high volume. Luckily, I don't have to talk about that because we had the legend Peter brand here.

Um we can discuss uh, what the chart looks like. Peter, I know you know we are kind of talking in the past for you, the higher high was seventy. That was the first meaningful line, but i've got to imagine that breaking all time high, high, meaningful as well.

Oh, well, I may know where we broken out with that whole sequence of lower highs, lower loads from march. You do know that now in violated, I think the big, big key to watch here for me and and the thing that tries me is the whole store value story, uh, gold versus bitcoin.

And what are the implications of that? What are the implications of that central bankers, implications of that to investors? That's a child I did post on my twitter feed here this morning and taking a look at that.

I think that's key. I mean, right now the bitcoin in gold ray show is somewhere mid twenty is high twenty. I think that eventually goes to one thirty. So um I posted the change. I mean, that's really story I show an above .

for people I just pulled from your feet, just like people can take a look. I actually randomly as well and that looks like we're breaking out of the ball flag here.

Yeah, we are. I mean, so that's the big story for me. Um I mean day to day, week to week, one months s yeah it's just to follow a bit coin trade bit coin on the uh, connection where bit going goes next.

But it's really what what's bitcoins role in the financial world foundation ally. And I think this role is as really the ultimate store value. And so you not just looking ahead that mean we take the big coin golden show of one thirty.

That does not mean we do IT next week. That doesn't mean we do IT next year. IT doesn't mean we maybe even do IT in the next decade, but I think we do IT.

And so you just plugged in your numbers, where do you think is goals going to go and where do you think bitcoins is going to go? You a good friend of mine who's really toured me a lot over the last six, seven years. And bitcoin 就是 这么 一点。

Love tour, love is thinking, you know, his projection for a bitcoin, uh, which point is equals the total of asset value of gold held by central banks, is somewhere eight hundred thousand dollars per dict coin. I used to one thirty ray show and even project out, continue up, try in goal, take to four, five thousand dollars. Thing like that is really kind of easy to plug in.

A A number somewhere between a half a million dollar is a million dollars per bit going. That's no reason I got by bitcoin right now, but IT. But but is the structural understanding of what bitcoin ts role in the world does gna be, especially a world that, as we've seen in U.

S. Politically and other countries politically, is that populism equals democracy. Unlike the leaders saying, that is not the case, in fact, populism is democracy and show you populism politically.

You have populism. Economic play only supports an argument for bit coin. Well, in terms so I like the charts. I think moana or not, porch, we have some resistence points along the way. But I unchanged. I think that going goes to one thirty one forty thousand dollars next top will be August, september two thousand and twenty five.

uh, aligned with the previous cycles. When I find interesting, Peter, is that you know we've talked to obviously the election to death and the fed policy and rate cuts of these things. But if you just do out and look at the four years pyle, kind of exactly where we should be with the same kind of targets that we should have in the same part of the year. But you talk about that end of twenty twenty five, obviously a twenty and two thousand seventeen every four years. Same thing.

yeah. I mean, cyc differently, my unique way, looking at cycles. I mean, some people, low to low, high to high. I know this popular way is high to high.

I tend to look at bitcoin in terms of word the love of burma could cycle and worth the having because there is a very, very consistent pattern that that you take uh, the distance of a really kind of a bear market law to that having point in measure that distance, uh, the next high in the bulk cycle will come equal distance from the low point of the previous pair market to the having date. You project IT on how you get an equal distance. And so that's kind of my understanding and where you're looking at cycles in the coin.

And you know that takes a having date that we had back earlier in the year. And IT projects IT out from november two thousand twenty two low, which puts its in to a high point somewhere in that september of two thousand twenty five range. And that is kind of my master map that uh my my taking on and how we how we get to that point.

I'm looking at your chart as you do the bitcoin gold ratio you're doing IT. Ah I was just trying to see what as that you do what you're doing b to C, U, S, D divided by G, C eleven futures, right? So uh, how do you choose that as the proxy for gold, for your, for your ratio?

Well, it's .

not .

eleven. It's, uh, uh, uh, so yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, it's not it's that's a nearby continuation charge of the most active charge of gold future i'd like to do in sau. But I am seeing the charge that really like you next see you that would be my preferred way of doing that.

But you know, I did not say you and looks Better. That's why I was literally asking because I was taking a look I did can include server. But minds comes that it's at the billion nine point four, eight, seven billion. So I was different. I think it's that by a Price.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So that's what I do at the best way to measured against gold going back when goal became legally tree to all in the united states in which which was one thousand nine hundred and seventy, three thousand nine hundred and seventy four years to look at that nearby contract of .

goal future says the proxy makes perfect sense to make the other hand .

up before I yeah sure thanks a good morning. This is a quick question for repeat, just for my own understanding of, well understanding of your viewpoint. So i'm looking at the A A bitcoin in versus gold here, the bitcoin, the gold ratio.

Would you say that I guess at the point that you have bitcoin hitting, say, eight hundred thousand and which you would you say that all of the, I guess, factors are tAilings that work for goals. So for example, like geo, you know the geopolitical environment, uh, inflationary concerns, uh, just overall demand with more if they getting taken off the shelf to speak and contrast in that with central banks and demand. I I would you say at that point, I guess a bit coin would overtake gold for those sort of safe safe her a he concerns or as he say, he asset just get Better .

picture here yeah I mean, we you know we got to get obviously two hundred thousand that point before we started talking kind of other whole more. But uh, no, I just think that bit point is a Better asset than go a long term. Now that doesn't mean that doesn't have problems.

That doesn't mean that we do not have, hey, governments have power. Governments do not like giving up power. Central banks will not like giving up power. And you know, power he gets, power holds on the power.

And so there is going to be some opposition to be a coin as really kind of an ultimate store of value as time goes on, uh, for sure. Uh, because central banks don't like giving up the roles that currently playing. But I I just think you look at uh, at goal, if you take gold, this kind of the history benchmark store value, I think glory places IT.

And I think a good way to look at IT is just how much gold has been stored by central banks. What's the value of that goal in any point time? I'm really not including a goal that might be really cycled another word's jewelry type gold dot coinage type gold and just really looking at kind of a bob grow on centrally bank archive, the gold tone coins when I when I look at this so racial.

Our guys, i'm having big as usual. But if don't have had any comments of that.

answer your question. Oh yes, sure. yeah. That gives me a clear picture of at least what you were saying in regards to gold because that was one thing I was that's why I mentioned jewelery as well because there is that there is that level of gold where, yes, a lot of gold gets taken off the shelf by central banks and then there's the whole jewellery issue and um you know just different demand fluctuations the year which takes gold off the shelf brings gold back up on on the shelf, which affects the Prices as well.

So I trying to contrast that with uh, big code or where you could argue that a lot of IT gets taken off the shelf. H forever thought to speak. And IT has a limited supplies.

I just wanted to sort of uh, ratify that, that in my own mind here and just I want I want to get some of Peters commentary. But yes, it's very interesting. Thank you.

All right to now obviously, we've sort of duggin to the the chart perspective in a way we look at the cycles, a kind of going through here, bringing people up on stage, sorry, a lot to a moderate uh talk and also be at the controlled but we have the tittle here bit when to hit one hundred k by year. And that's unable I mean, a basically thirty percent increase from here.

We've seen bitcoin move uh, that much in that amount of time many times in the past. But does anybody expect you will actually see a hundred k as a lot of pundits are saying by by years and by the end of the year, I think most people are probably the ycl. I'm going to put the spot.

Um if Simon's not there a dave.

what do you think I think that well, I did have a question for Peter.

but I think that if you do.

there's two things here. There's fundamentals are in in supply demand and there is the nics. The technicals obviously are often driven by fundamentals what they have ve seen to align. And the one to the question was going to be which is relevant for all this is within the cycles we've noticed that yes, has been consistent patterns.

But the magnitude uh of the moves from cycle one to cycle two to cycle three, about cycle four seem to be consistently decreasing, which you would expect because as the asset Price increases, the the in percentage terms, IT takes more for IT to move. But the countervAiling factor here is reaching critical mass. What Peter was describing is a project in to be at weary.

It's easily gold. It's basically a critical massive acceptance. If that happens, then there's another factor play, right? The other factor is gold done a really good job over thousands of years and certain the last hundreds of years and turns maintaining purchasing power parody because sumer goods.

But we know that the value of financial assets to consumer goods has dramatically increased because of use, your interest rates and a lot of other things. So the question is, if you get to you can get to gold is what? Step one, but what the sailors, the world talk about me, Robert breed, love lots of other people are well go.

Will bick be the denominator for financial assets, which is when another order of magnitude more? And so my question is, is how do you account for that from a chart perspective in you when you're looking at at magnet de differences? Because if you use log scale, it's all going to be here, going to expecting to be continue to decrease.

If you go to absolute well, you know that, that may not be ready. There's something this curious, how do you account for those for that that major different. So when you talk about one hundred thousand by the end of the year, I mean, it's really a question of answer.

Riddle me this, will any large sovereign well fund major institutional investor ah that isn't delicate, a bitcoin allocated bitcoin, the public way that trigger, uh, a lot of following. And at the end that is, yes, hundred thousand is doable in a day. Probably not onna happen that way.

Uh, that's nothing. The real question is, is when do we get to what is the cyclical p and I told you my prediction for the cycle top expect, other than if we did the limits bill passes, which case all bets are off, is still somewhere around two forty. And I give you my reasoning many times for that. Some curious Peter know, how do you take those things into account?

Boy, that there a lot of questions packed in that yeah I mean i'm not a global macro o guy. So for me the church are the chart. I mean the charge of the charge to a certainly greek, I mean beyond the charge not set at many times is I think currently most assets are expressed in U. S. Dollar terms.

I think we will see a shift and that over time, where the the common expression of assets will become bitcoin based and and that really deals with acceptance, that deals with the level at which you know, I mean, we will probably have to add a few more numbers to the right of the dashall point over time as we could get your bit going on. Me, I think that will be that'll be effort that's gonna to take place. But so I don't I don't think of timing that degree where were looking at one hundred thousand by year.

And i'm not sure when we get to a hundred thousand, whether it's this wave or the next wave. I am just looking at, uh, how I projected the one thirty, one forty and that certainly could be two fifty as well. And I don't know that answered your question because I maybe didn't completely understand the essence of you.

I know you about this magazine in in the art because you know a lot of people, a lot of with the years of these use log scale and a lot of bitcoin, you know, chartists look at IT, an absolute sense. But when you look an absolute to each succeeding, a cycle has lower movement relative, you know, in percentage terms at least, right? So I was just curious, how do you had your account for that? Or do you think that, that is just Normal variance?

Oh, I would never look at a bit bitcoin, the five uh, linear scale I need. Bitcoin, in my opinion, has to be charted uh, in semi log skill, a log skill asset. How do you take an asset goes for hundred dollar to seventy five thousand dollars in the course of whatever we have here fifteen years in in, in wanna in lingerie, you can do that.

And so I look at bitcoin and it's a log scale commodity, especially when you look at the long term charts. Now on a day to day basis, I hadn't be a swing trader, the swing trader I would not look at at the bitcoin uh in in in in log scale because that is not the magnitude, the time frame up by scaling or or the Price subjectis that, that would have bit coin. But when i'm looking at bitcoin from a long term basis in trying to have IT make sense to me from, uh, the standpoint of the global macro economic system, you gotten look at the log scale, not the scale.

Thank you. That was distinction.

Scott, that I was hoping .

he would say because I that was likely and the audience will benefit from. This is distinct with your your long return views from your swing trading and swing trading you can't look at at that way. And that was what I was hoping Peter would say, because of what I thought made sense. But he's farm, had to edit, and they can probably explained IT Better. So I just thought for the audience perspective about very small piece of point.

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yeah. I think the same danger of mixing up fundamentals with T A here. Um I think we need to give them secret. But just regarding log scale. I almost useful um use is of um log scare is basically in the early Price action.

So at the moment, with the rapid Price action has been in last you know a few years and the early Price action doesn't seem to you know you can't see any waves, hear an allegation and I think like that you cannot see the waves and unless you using log scale. But the problem is with bitcoin, it's evolved so much as asset. So initially, IT was obviously purely effective asset and it's evolved into becoming a real store of value.

Um so I think that looking at the early Price action on big coin, I don't think is actually that useful. And that's why you would use log scare to to analyze the early and Price history and then looking at gold, whether we discuss the earlier because I just came on towards you know a couple minutes ago. But quite interesting to note the last having event on bitcoin that actually propelled bitcoin to a Better doctor for ratio than gold.

So when you look at the amount bit coin in the existence, um there's now less being produced in relations that as there is gold in relations among the gold. So that means that you know bitcoin is is really rapidly matured and becoming that store of value, becoming true digital gold and over taking bit coin that way. So um in terms and then the final thing I think we're looking at is you know how fast cannet appreciate three, one hundred and beyond.

Yes, I can happen very, very quickly. Um I think this still um some potential headwinds with potential gea policy risk and also observe got interest rates tonight a Young going, what's gona happen with the economy? And also there's some tensions, geopolitical tensions even with china and trade barriers, not kind of thing.

So there are a lot of potential headwinds. But if all goes well, you can absolutely sell through one hundred very quickly by year end. But there are some, some risks. So anyone is trading, I think we really have to watch your you manage your risk very, very carefully, but the potential is absolutely there. So that's about IT for me.

But it's interesting as we kind of with all those geopolitical things to watch and all the conversations we've had over all this time, bitcoins exactly were supposed to be in the having cycle the bad funny.

I mean, you look at having cycle, everyone talks about this having cycle. I mean, it's long term. Obviously, it's amazing because it's effectively less than less supply a bitcoin.

But again, if you put harbin events on on A S peach out, IT looks as over halving events have A A literal effect on the S P five hundred and they doomed. So I actually think that there's too much sock of cycles because we just don't have enough data and history on bitcoin. As I say, it's evolved completely from a totally speculative asset.

Um I think we actually put too much into cycles. Yes, long term IT means bitcoin should reach the moon, but I think we cannot use these events timing of cycles because as they say, if you put IT on put these having events on an S M P, you could literally justify that the S. M.

P. Is reacting to the harbin cycle. So I think we just read too much into that. I think we ve got to be very, very careful about talking about repeating cycles in asset, which has been run for such a short period of time. And not you can't talk about since two thousand nine because, you know, IT was so speculative in those early days. Now we can start to begin to consider cycles, but we need more data to to have any sort of reliance, I believe personal anyway.

I think that sir, given I talk about that often and I mean, statistically irrelevant certainly. But the pattern is someone undeniable yeah you can't take I mean, it's a bit as a very different asset in each cycle than IT was with a maturity institution of participation at at a day of dear point.

You're saying there could be sort of some White swan a yes that sends out there overnight, not by the end of the year, but certainly of trump goes into office and passes a bit coin act or we see obviously a become a strategy of asset. That's the type of thing that I think, as you've mention many times, can be Priced in period, right? I mean, united states adding bit point to the baLance sheet, any meaning way would force effectively every country in the world to follow.

There's just not enough big point for that. Dave, did I articulate that uh, properly or uh but, uh, I think baby, you're going to guess and are not here. Some are you back?

It's so sorry, just didn't hear anything Matthew was saying at that time.

classic. okay. Yeah, I repeat maybe for now, I just go to floria an obviously, you trade both big coin and gold so kind of relevant of this conversation .

yeah thanks for having me again. Well, um I mean, I think we've seen a regime change in the last few days. Obviously gold had a hecker on uh, over the last few months, and IT seems that it's time for a bit of a breather here maybe.

And bitches are about to break out most likely. I mean, we have to still strong resistance on words right now. I would say everything between seventy five and eight k is still kinder resistance even though it's above or it's a new altima here.

But uh, yeah once we take out this resistance. So I think I can actually really very quickly to a hundred k and we've seen this earlier this year how fast things can happen. So um yeah, I think it's time to be bullish. Er, I said at the last time already and yeah, that looks pretty good here.

Do you have an idea? I mean, the timing and force the title by end of year. But is that release where do you think that this is just a general trend kind of year into the next cycle?

Well, timing is always tRicky. But I mean, we've seen IT in the gold market, uh, how much energy can be unleashed out of such a cup handle pattern? And we have a similar pattern here in bitcoin three years into making, and we've seen IT earlier this year and bit kind I mean, IT really quickly twenty k in just a few months, a few weeks. So yeah I think one hundred k by year and is possible yes, um I wouldn't bet on IT, but it's possible for sure .

I would love day very here is probably I don't know if anybody has the dads and not in front of a computer, but I would love to see the futures contracts are or the odd jar of a hundred thousand on december like end of december contracts. You have an foreign managers.

Uh, I don't try the big coin future, but uh, I need to take a look at IT mice yeah .

just here is because we can put obviously, we can put IT at least what what people are betting on with their money odds on right by kind of look at the future contracts. But I I don't know the answer to that. So lest we got wrong here, let's p IT a IT to politics run math sweep here. Got to imagine that that's where you guys were kind of lobbying for. In this context, you're probably pretty happy.

Uh, i'm perfect, unhappy. I mean I love bit more the republicans for B A again. So like this is great for me personally. H as well as a lot of industry and um also like like the narrative of warn and antarctic army IT is mainly now how much that has backfire politically. So that's good to see kind of backup to the mainstream and and three twenty twenty five is a predrag position. So um two point I think we going to have a coming up in the next hundred days uh for the turf ministration and crypto to be in the mix for a law that so bucks a lot. It's going to be pretty busy, please.

So what are you looking for in the coming months now to make the transition? Trumps obviously done this before last time. I think people point here is being kind of a mess. Um do you think that by inauguration, we might actually have some chatter about what's likely to have them with digital assets?

Um started he had already in congress but um even before that uh there was a recognition tion within the trump uh team with campaign itself that they did really fumble in the early days. Uh other administration just trying to get a law and nominations through uh much again different political times law was going on then but he got to the middle of staff like the delay at the top really delayed a law.

The actions I were doing, the biocon ack work because the spoke more important place. So they didn't been really trying to me that uh for the past couple month. So i've been in communication with them uh help them in that folks um for more crypt side the'd been playing other folks as well and the critical community that have uh working with them.

So I they have a free robust list from all uh source i've been talking to uh IT kind depends what the upper folks choose but they uh have allegedly you already voted the top folks uh and the read hit the ground running and with republican senate and a decent margin. You know it's not one or two looks like now I going to have a couple votes so to mess with here and they're going to have a pretty good runway if it's more yelly have a year to have to really move the policies forward, and that's what they're gna have to to work on. And they know the fires on the back because likely to send in a flit to democratic go around. So very little .

get two years yeah I mean, but do you think that with enough people in this transition team and surrounding him that sort of pro cyp to literally all of them? Ark, obviously I do. You fake that they view this as important of, uh, you know, as important an issue that I can be you know in the first sort of round of congressional uh uh you know action that we see uh, market structure or obviously stable coins but then more importantly from the senate, this a global reserve, you can reserve I me this so they can be talking about in the next four or five months daily.

I mean, already. So, uh, yesterday, the number two house republic can put out his agenda for the top next hundred days of the trip. Ministration critical regular ory framework was on that list. Now, much again, that's just the house.

And if I had predict anything, you would probably be the stable coins likely falls off to the wayside in the lame duck because the push back husband democrats and the republicans have uh, all the advance right now the negotiations. So there's any push catch from the democrats. We just can wait next h next year to do IT when they have full control administration and congress.

So um what see what happens there? I do hope deal done, but I not worried you've even get done this year. I'll be pretty quickly done h next year, but modern structure and look towards that um to be the large focus in the first uh hundred days moving out the house at least.

And in tax, tax is gonna also uh coming up at the first hundred days with republicans having you know full control congress. It's gonna open season here and cypher was come a decent amount already in my conversations come preparing for the scenario. Uh, so expect tax issues, uh encysted o to come up a lot.

So already first couple hundred days. And when I get to the personnel yet, I been getting to the executive orders potentially. So in just for congress alone, it's going .

to busy some yeah .

my my question is, and I think is more of a discussion to the panel, is why woudent amErica have a bit queen strategic reserve? What could go wrong here? So many of the traditional financial institutions have now figured out that they would rather the monitor bitcoin um you know the uh you know the the I R S is said, you know theyve brought the tax.

We've called the whole integration into the pension system, three, four and one case and everything with the etf now um so i'm wondering who can get in the way of the process. Um we've got what IT seems to be if you've got the house, the senate and the president or republican, things are going to be able to go forward seeing the transition team a rule. Um bitcoin type of people they get IT. Um so what what are the things that we need to be aware of that could get in the way that might uh get in the way because, uh, american don't having one. I mean, I couldn't just fall.

by the way, side. One of those many know sort of campaign discussions that just doesn't become priority.

Yeah, there's two point here. So first is what's congress already focused on. You know what's been the main focus and that's been stable coins already.

That's been the d banking and market structure that's been in the mainstream narrative in congress for about the past four, five years because i've been hearing that from the industry. So um like that's already kind of top of mind for them. First on the figure reserved to even of the administration put that in their policy.

And we've seen a senate bill out there. We haven't seen any a really take up on the outside for that legislation. IT is come a newer idea where mark structural legislation has been more around for about four, five years plus them that where else working on back in twenty seventeen congress. Uh.

so it's a little less .

flush out again, I think of all the priorities, that's one where it's a little hard to map out given just the out the lack of political well from a lot more of the major players here. Again, lum is the major players, so it's still worth looking at. But I wanted put us as high like stable coining of market structure by any means. Actually even say, self custody problem has a Better chance of getting in shined into legislation somewhere to perform before that. But we'll see there is a lot that can change on this front, but that one doesn't have as as much critical buyer, uh, as you should do right now.

Yes, I I guess my appeal to um whoever may be involved in in that process is a IT will make a lot more sense to the U S. To front run all of the different types of things that they'll be working on. Um and so you know who whoever is involved in that process that would be crazy for amErica to get everything right, set up the game and not already have started on the strategic reserve. So I think if anyone's influential in that process, that would be a great to put that to the front of the queue however that however that process works. I'm sure i'm standing a bit stupid because .

I ve been involved in I think you know, h rn, you can speak to this, but I was looking obviously at the charge of sort of pro cyp to congress and pro cyp to senate and antigay pto. Congress and senate obviously was a huge win for industry. I saw a senate based three, what we reviewed, I guess, as pro crypto senators out right? And now only one entire, which is obviously little bit more now that I guess sha Brown is drawn. I mean, I did this matter is IT about how much sway like luma has see the one who obviously proposed the bill at the big coin conference and presented IT in nashville is about getting people in line to assign point they could pass IT probably now right but that doesn't mean that they want to couldn't just been a talking point yeah .

and I was no limit is fully um you know pushing this is not a talking point. SHE fully believes that uh through and through so this is not just to try to work both like that SHE is lily I had vil conversation. Ff and there are very try make this happen so um and I would say, no, we comes the senate though and that's been the kind of the major obstacle for a lot things is you do really need a broad consensus of people supporting IT.

And so really have like one or two or four five members supporting a certain issue had a harder to to elevate through the las. But what is you going to have a lot more power from next congress and it's very likely she's going to share this new digital asset b committee. And I am sure this is gonna on the first thing he puts up there. So um you know it's worth keeping an iron and keeping out on her especially because he is pushing for this at every chance he gets uh and you know .

is the gypt said her third task .

for the bitch coin lobby is is that something that influences ces IT or not really IT is I think the next phase of the loving in is to get really interesting .

um we're going going to feel a lot more like industry versus industry um within the critical industry finding each other potentially, uh, I can see is going in to banks because traffic is coming in hot and they are coming in hot on the inside especially now. So it's to be looking very different then like no just the pro cyp to for the antigen pto IT didn't get pretty particulars so um so we can see the bitcoin lady pushing for this um as a whole. We have to remember we're going to facing a lot of fights here on a lot of other fronts um and this could might be one of saying protect the Cherry on top versus like the .

exceptional crisis of like being being who. People expected trump to announce a strategic reserve, and he actually technically didn't right, but he said, was that effectively they would not sell the bit coin that was already on the baLance, eat all the big coin that's been overstated. He came up short of saying they would ever add anymore, basically said we won't to sell.

He didn't say strategic, but in reserved. But then they obviously have let mits come out on stage as he was walking off and proposed the bill. So is there actually without that bill, is there a middle ground here where I would imagine, yes, for the government, just doesn't sell whether we the big in resort or not, he, they have at least already committed to not selling what's there. And by the way, they could still sell IT before he's even empower next three months of if they want to really be contentious .

hundred and everything everything is outline is in the wrong possible. And again, this is less congress, at least in terms of the actions of the government's uh held bitcoin. That can be a regular decision so that can be A A truck m and call um but I will watch him more hold on to those promises of not selling the bitcoin first is like creating the because he probably will need congress in some foreigner .

on to go at dave .

yeah actually have two completely separate we want a question and one you know kind of more actually be both sort of questions. So on the bitcoin tragedy reserve you know topic, you there is also another middle ound, which is treasury and or the fed buying bitcoin or having bitcoin on their baLancer. I don't see why you need congressional open do that because they be able by nbs and other resort of stuff without IT. So IT seems hard to understand why they couldn't do IT in sort of a healthy mode, at least in the beginning if they were so inclined to do so. Um i'm seriously what you think about that but before I give up the mike the the totally flip club, second question has to do with market in structure.

We crypto we care about market structure alive because there isn't one but one of the things that this audience doesn't know, but I am very well aware of is that there is an enormous push back against the last four years of the esc in traditional finances, particularly the equity markets where uh gary and his hand picked academic at at trading and markets have had a an of market structure rules that are incredibly prescriptive and for the most part of the industry thinks is is not even remotely close to satisfy the apa that administrative procedures act which is why there will be lost with its on quite a few of these things. Now the reason i'm mentioning IT wrong is because I don't know what you need for congress for that, if anything, but political pressure will be immense on the next sec to simplify. And then the question then becomes, since we will wait a minute, if we're going to try to eat some more digital assets under securities laws, shouldn't we try to meet in the middle and all of this stuff that gets very, very complicated because we've overcomplicated not because that needs to be because, Frankly, IT doesn't.

It's massively over engineered on the equity market side. And I think and we could talk about that at will, a large part of why crypto o firms don't want to try to fit with an equity has to do with the incredibly prescriptive nature of those equity rules. And they go up and down the gaming.

Seriously, you've totally rumbling about any sorts of Normalization. You mention trade file lobby. I guarantee you one of the things were treated by lobbying is is like, why do those guys get to have Better rules and we have to suffer because then you know, that's obviously going to be be a problem. So to me, a large part of this is is some form of Normalization or understanding and i'm curious if if anyone has come to that realization or if we have to wait a few moves in the chess game before we get to that realization.

Um he raised a logical points, uh just the best I can I think when IT comes to the very in particular, this is where the the fights are gna get really uh in the weeding granular and IT comes to the point where I law the industry is going to collide.

Um and I would say although the republicans is not free pass by any means, I mean, we're still going to see a push to getting on the books where they be legislation or rules because they they won't prevent another girl again so coming and down the road. But also the same time, they want to make sure there's very much clear clarity here um and get the rules right. The idea that they have always effort here on mother structure and ah okay, you know we have A S T that need trump and where we get to go, no nefer legislation. That's not the the card that's not in the room.

No, just so little. Let me clarify. And by the way, I just just see you know I will say IT publicly, I am happy to to help um you in your efforts to understand some of these these stories deep in the weed issues and where they come to IT.

So just put that out there. But that being said, what i'm asking is a lot of there are two most important things in the fedex that was there. The most important thing is and regulation by enforcement. We all understand that that's a big deal. And then the second most important thing is clearly delineating a responsibility. What i'm asking about is anyone talking about what do you need to do and what could congress do to once you have delineated responsibility to guide the cftc and the esc, uh, in in how in where they are responsible because obviously those first two things come first. I mean, we do those things to get done.

Uh, the other other folks that been helped on that front, uh, both like you know the B A membership and certain individual companies, but are also just more on the the government side here is on the corporation front. So in those conversations happen happening uh for quite some time but obviously haven't done to the point where like we're implementing something either from congress or uh rule making that uh.

So what if IT again, more while the way and see where how the the transport looks for us. But those we got the right folks and plays, I will say the D C. Resources, we do have a decent folks, uh, is a good bench to pull front. But it's could be a really time see where .

we go from here run how much is a you know this prime court decisions from a few months ago, Shawn and such child, much as that can impact this because now we obviously have yeah uh, a conservative leaning supreme court. They've basically decapitated the regulators to some degree with at least rome diver the court. Now you have a more conservative, you know, congress, senate and president. So seemed like the regulating have less power generally.

Correct correct. Then they have they have lost power. And then you have A A full monday here from american people for the republicans to enact uh, what they think is the the right direction for the country and that is a lot of stuff ah and so that we're all also cyp t is going to come into a couple fights as we're going to have to try to get ourselves at the top of the the ticket turn of issue solved.

And again, IT seems like already that in place with the republicans are saying that they get to cyp down the first hundred days. But to your point, there's a lot of this you might get to, uh, very likely some fall off on the road and we got ta get that uh, finance soon as we can because there are so many other issues of the congress wants to uh, go to. So there's no realm of voting three or four weeks on .

fact reduction act type things that we saw from administrations where it's just you know, all these random things. So under one huge umbrella, maybe it's just a bullets point that's very.

very likely this situation that thing to happen in the first uh, six months, uh, twenty twenty five us to what extent I I think taxes is guaranteed almost at that point to be in a big bill like march structures, stable coins, sab one twenty one repeal, all that stuff is likely uh, on the table. So again, just because he doesn't make into this big bill that republicans are trying to post in the first hundred days there allegedly forming, by no means that mean like instead in the world it's just going to be provide the first ticket out of congress, uh, and tremble science. So like that's gonna the thing to wash since .

I ve still got you sorry to focus so much on you but um we obviously says I said that sort of huge swing in crypto friendly legislators verse uh negative anti crypto to legislators else was even much bigger numbers how much of that was strictly republican or how much was part feeling actions? Quite a few democrats as well.

I mean, you are the same before the election results came out. Like we're gods who wins, like especially the house, we are feel press confidence we're got a lot to get stuff out and just problem when I mean that means that we have a lot easier a chance to get some stuff done. So um again, it'll be a lot more uh in the with baLance here.

But we are feeling good because we actually got a lot of good democrats um in this cycle a lot Younger democrats and there a couple races were as a republican a proto or republican there is a procreate to democrats so I would have the proper to republican calling us fruit out and buy from my colleague and democratic ah but that's a good situation. Have uh and I think that's me more the norm. Uh next cycle is IT was really dumb strategi C2Be aga inst scr ipt uh and tha t's goi ng to be the sam e poi nt for qui te som e tim e.

And now mind you though, they're going to be it's a the next face. So for example, so custody to my knowledge, we haven't done any democrat a to corespondent or self custody bill. And in the republican issues in the republican ty platform, that's can you know we got to move the democrats to long because the pro cripes. So because he isn't me to guarantee for uh for a lot these democrats so we have to push in that direction so the world is still can .

off for us but rotta would do IT if you're talking about in congress.

Um I mean Richie tourists vote against the morning davits of the self custody so and he's great for us. great. I'm just warning folks there's a lot good democrat here too but doesn't mean hundred percent sometimes I just always be aware and the same thing goes.

republicans to isn't lizbeth as marginalized as we think he is I mean, even in her debate with john didn't SHE backed off and I crypto rhetoric dramatically, which I felt like was just insane, that they let her get away that, but they obviously don't know. SHE effectively went from saying mycroft pt, or should be banned to saying A I pycroft pto grade, we just need rules, which I listen to change. Maybe that was showing this. He's gna back off. But I mean, is there any indication that a you will continue .

with .

this level of reregulated? Pity for the for the, uh, industry. And I guess b is what had even matter at this point when he has very so little support. I mean, without or without being the head of the banking committee, without, doesn't he just basically sitting on the island? Now yeah.

that's the thing. This is going to be the the most interesting dynamic for the democrats in the next about two, three months is what they decide to do with a lot of warm because again, it's gone maintained that the crypto industry um they won this ball again and IT was front page neuro times a year day. So like it's it's maintained the cypher o one this round against the list of warm.

But right now, given the folks who have lost her elections again, the two the anti cypher ahead her he is slated right now as IT stacks up to be the lead democrats on standard banking. So even though she's in the minority, SHE still has a lot of power and he's still as seen as the mouth peace for uh finding services policy for the senate democrats and there's a lot democrats to disagree with that direction. Um and so there's i'm sure there's talks happening with such humour's office and others saying do we want to put her uh in her policies that have been outright rejected by the american people um on tuesday? Do we want that to be the the face of the democrats view of finance polity because there's been a tribal pack ash .

on this front from a multiple angles very couple weeks O A months ago.

exactly. I don't see situation where is a war and back down. You mean even politically, it's just you don't really back down from an issue, especially you put so much effort into IT. So so either pay IT to on the direction or should double down say, you know this industry took out a lot of my allies and i'm here to have the reckoning so he could be a thor side um but she's to be around a lot more likely um and I I don't see I going positive so what have plenty narrow battle here um but she's on the island by erself right now and losing allies fast and those who do your your camp they're gonna on the the cyp list for the election what's do what happens?

I mean, if we get a massive bull market here, can you imagine how much crp to money is going to go into the next election in two years? Men, me and saying, I didn't say.

I mean, I trust the trap for folks, number people. I've been talking to us in new york two weeks ago, and just the number of people talking about the election being the inflection points. And then to the next day, there they're all.

And again, D. C. theyve. Been around for quite some time. I may, even I live, been, have the force I to I take me now and they're loving me on custody back in twenty seventeen. So I they been thinking about this way ahead here um and then the ground ward toga nations bit at the hot top on capital hill past two years so um so live in the trap I folks see what happens but I am really excited and nervous a little bit who where this goes a loving side before the .

marketing be great. One last question on man. I even talk to them but one of the major weapons that chancellor has wheeled ded and and honestly, IT started under clinton, was they basically and they're not legal to leave. So this is extra legal. But they basically told funeral to not approve any broker dealers to offer crypto to trading services to their clients, which is wide, by the way, Robin hood has their crypto arms.

And so as fidelity in uh non broken dealer or fillies, this sounds i've mention this on the space a lot, but i'm curious one would think that people in dc are telling robber cook, okay, you may want to Normalize this policy because that's the big deal. You're traffic if you're in a bank and you have to set up a separate defiler a and you have to do what's called chinese walls or information barriers, all sorts of things. It's really hard to do IT.

Uh whereas what they do with future, just so you know, if those are not security either, is they are are allowed to trade them in their broker dealer and they have that policies around IT. But IT is dramatically easier to do. So uh, i'm just wondering when that that's the tuna I of that, that will get all the financial services, you know firms out there into crypto o that literally been the the sticking point for many, especially for midsized to small perpetuals. I'm curiously you have heard any movement on that. We have the way for that's .

been on the the right of for members of congress for quite some time. Robot has and push that so of several folks. So yeah I I would imagine that broken dealer stuff would to get at least in some ways to perform uh, more industry positive to say um but IT is really unclear direction going to take, especially also what they're going to do the S T before going or leaves.

So uh, I think I see there's anything finalized on that broken rule afterwards. Uh, as well as there will be a congressional reaction, if not S S C H, recently, that whenever that person gets a in place from administration. So uh and but again, see your last point though about the trap of money coming in.

I when I mentioned the next stage of the loving fight, this is kind of like where traditional ed lobby world comes in the play and kind of how the tragedy is. I think folks be more aware is that some folks, again, IT is effective, sometimes large, not, but IT does work. Uh, you know, they try get regulate a burden to count, capture the market.

Uh, and he puts some barriers. Place again, the banks have done this for years. And so I think we're going to see either bank trying to push into that space or cyp to folks trying to uh, when some market chair of the regulations on other fronts.

So know it's going to be a very interesting dynamic to watch and didn't get there in the week. So just buckle up. It's going to be uh, to watch.

Yeah there is just so many issues, uh, beyond crypto with wall street where people are obviously are just disillusion with feature regime and that's going to change. Do you think that then even makes IT to do anywhere? We might believe the last two S, C, C. Chairs, when there was resume change, basically resigned by, like late december, free Christmas.

I mean, he is the way till the last time to do. A lot of things have been positive for the, for the industry. I mean, take the big in etf.

He had months to approve IT. He waited to pretty much the last. So I think that's going to be of a strategy. We are on pension needles. He does anything uh, you even does anything, just like short time in a room like to be resented uh, were dropped if it's like a enforce action so like that so ah we will see but I am sure there will be some noise makes .

lives because the noise of crime work at home.

But i'm sure he'll go out with something on the letter head to doesn't ron .

doesn't have if he decides to stay, he could stay as a commissioner. But doesn't that basically mean cranch a automatically can be renominated because there can only be two democrats on the commission and he would just be one of the two non chair democrats.

Isn't that the way that works? Yeah, is a lost never playing talking for on is one scenario but again, like yeah so whoever .

not commission .

slot really come against or crunch. The good news is that building in the minority before.

you know. Good make sense. I mean preventing back here uh from from politics that think we've definitely beat that that topic here, which is great um doing what do you think the regime .

change .

here and the sort of red sweep is going to mean for markets over the next uh, a few years? Uh, visually we keep talking about where bit going to go law. But in context of greater markets, do you think that this will generally be bullish for stocks, the assets over the coming uh over the coming four years?

That's that's a very big question. So um I think I think in I think in general, yes, I am one of the things that you know i'm wondering about here is know organizations like the S E C and all the secondary Terry uh sort of organizations here we have a new you know we have a new government coming in. It's a bad new day here.

So is that gonna change the picture for, you know things like productivity, inflation, manufacturing? Is that gonna change the way that they are going to approach policy? So that's one thing i'm wanting about, especially when where you're basically in a uh, an easy environment right now or at least an initial easy environment now, we're gonna see some more.

I know that uh tums gona bang the table for three cuts because he's gna want uh you know is going to want a Better um you know basically a Better environment of faster economic growth here. So um I think on at least on a high level, I think it'll be uh, positive for markets. Um I think that we're in a around right now where you could argue that inflation is cooling, and I think the fed will probably give us another rate.

I'm just in light of inflation cooling and some concerns about I job growth cooling as well. So I just on those friends, I think that would be good for markets. We have to see what this means for things like onshore, uh, for industrial.

We're seeing uh the the the rates freeing is cutting down globe. So if you're going from shanghai to new york, if you're going from uh asia to europe, we're seeing those costs going down. I don't have a computer, but I bit somewhere in the rim of three, two hundred dollars u for forty four forty foot container.

So as we see those go down, we we're seeing the asset Prices increase for um know for basic materials as well, which is a positive sign. Um but and for buyers, that's going to get offset the lower Price aren't should offset the higher Prices. So on different fronts here, I think overall for for markets in general, that should be positive.

But you know I think we should really watch uh, manufacturing and basic materials to see what happens with rates and to see if we can um no basically get some productivity as uh um i'm from there as well. I think that's the key in regards to take some other industry. We should have a good environment. But we have to see on some friends here .

here you think we're going on into a raging bull market here with all assets. We obviously talked about pickin. But what are you you on the broader market as a whole, we're to rap love.

I create a loss. A Peter might not get their thoughts foreign what you think. I grave a to tune out, turn out, guess or some glitches so when to move here to rap because obviously .

people get get well, I assume we are in a mild up in basically everything. So um this could last until end of the year next spring. Um I assume stock market will continue to make new highs. I I express already my opinion that bit corn will start to break out and then most likely will be quickly ready to hundred K. I assumed that we have a Price targeting out of the cup and handle forbid connect around hundred thirty thousand, also assume that precious metals and certain commodity Prices are will do well.

Um however, I I also assume that during the course of next year, the markets will start to question whether the the situation in total is really dead healthy if the federal reserve has to continue to lower interest rates dramatically. And that certainly reminds me of two thousand and seven and eight. And maybe during the next year, we might see some liquidity conscious at some point, but this is still away from us. I think for the next few months we are in the melt up in every awesome guys.

We going to go head and rap here doing an hour. I will obviously back tomorrow morning, ten for king standard time. Thank you all the guest.

Thank you for of you listening this a hell of a week. Can't wait to see you. All of this plays out. See you guys tomorrow. Thank you. bye.