Bitcoin Bears: Prepare To Suffer, Bitcoin To Reach $200K This Cycle | Macro Monday
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If bitcoin bears haven't suffered enough over the past few weeks, burn stein says the bitcoin going to two hundred thousand and outline the path to get there. We love hyperbolic Price predictions for titles, so we're just going, going to roll with that. But we have a lot to talk about with bitcoin.

And of course, the election of the appointment and everything is happening in macro. I've got the best three in the business here to do with me. James lavish, dave wise burger and my like a glove.

Mo, monday, the best hour. The week. Let's go.

What is up everybody on Scott milker, also known as the wolf of all streets. Before we'd started, please describe the channel hit like burden. We've got dave James, mike Davis, scrooge MC, ducking there with his bitcoins, just swimming through his volt of gold bitcoins there. I love this. I love to give backgrounds.

Could you do IT in the virtual world of scotland, the real world? The sale is buying too many other know can afford that much.

We are going to get there. But first, we're going to go back to now that we're back to a Normal life to some degree, the election has set in bitcoin in now trading kind of around ninety thousand. Mike, what you guys looking at generally what happened in the morning meeting today.

that was a quite a good one. That consensus as the fed probably is done easy for now on the one expects of um the um um core PC deflated to actually kick up fed F M C expects to take down the key quote from ana was the fed and pause that were careful too much which is fed speak for we're done we're pausing um expects the next unemployment number to be little stronger to make back for the october weakness and key thing as the fed wants to avoid the biggest one in biggest mistakes in history when they are easy too much and we keep get inflation despite that american rescue x so they're really cogers in the fact that we're going to get some more fiscal stimulus.

They have to offset that because inflations actually high above their targets. Ira jersey said four forty seventh key resistance in the ten nine note yelled, I point out of that copper and cruel probably likely decline which might solidify that resistance. Our key um equity thread is just more wolf just pointed out the pair of sixty percent, ten percent of all countries are typically short term inflation, longer term more disinflation. I like the point out which just read the the book um no trade is free and expect a pretty hard hamp sled chama and troops and are a chief f expressed to say he does see what's gona stop the dog for .

you for now dollar dollar going up. That's that's interesting taking a lot of people are looking for sort of the dollar to head back down after all of .

this setting. I I did that one thing on enter. I do enjoy that the thing every single time I hear people say bad things about the double look over crypt to dollar. So what's the most widely traded crypto? It's still the dollar and that's just a technology paradigm.

Yeah if you look at them, what the industry probabilities for fed funds features know the probability of a cut in uh, december, which the december fifth right is um it's down to fifty percent. So um know the economic numbers have been strong enough and I agree with mike.

I mean like inflations been sticking above three percent, it's been stuck there, which is you know it's only one percent higher than the two percent, fifty percent higher than what they you know what what they're so called targeted. So uh, IT is going to be interesting that the long and the curve is not it's not slow down, you know I mean, uh, what's the ten year at today is above is above ten years four forty five. So you know I mean it's it's right there. So um yeah I mean, the bond market is telling you continued expected strength and uh, higher inflation expectations in the long term period.

James, we had C P I, M P D I both up even slightly or at least first is expections last week, that was the first time we've actually had that happen and quite .

a while yeah and you've just watched IT is just kind of level down. It's been sticking at three percent here or higher months and months now. So you know um will IT they just like mick said, the fed doesn't want to make them the mistake of a resurgence and inflation all of the the seventies you know they don't want to have. We've talked about a nosier how um how power doesn't want to be. He he wants to be worker, not burn. You know I mean, that's the that's the he he he has a legacy here and me he declared he's not he's not going resign and that trump can't fire him and all that but I think his focuses again how he's seen um as as the the person who the authority who is kind of ushered the economy through this a the the covic crisis and out of IT and IT really matters to him in my opinion.

Yeah I think my jagger that best I think my jagger said at best is the terms of power. You can always get what we want.

right? How about I can't .

get no satisfaction that that I know .

look at picture .

of the dollar. I mean, you know the dixi, the dixi is bumping up against the top of its year long range. You know, I mean, I did go a little bit higher a almost exactly year ago came right back down to this channel between no one or seven and and one hundred and now one of six and a half.

I mean, yeah, and the dollar could break out to the the outside if IT does is because people are buying IT to take a back into treasury yields because I very much I that is the reason. Uh, but that the question begs the question is, well, if that's true, then why they demanding so much those yields? Wired yells going up if there is demand because you know people trying to buy in.

And it's an interesting question. The reality is I think mike is on to something. The world dominates stuff and dollars.

As long as it's the nominator, people depart the money somewhere. And we know that the intercrop t over stores their dollars. You know, when they buy tether, tether takes the dollars and buy treasuries with them.

So you have this interesting trade that every time is a ball marketing. Crypto people buy print tether and the tedder treasury to buy all coins or bitcoin, but mostly all coins in the other case. And then either takes that and buy treasuries with them, meaning what's good for cyp to is good for a, is good for treasury yields and allows people to do that.

And therefore people, then by dollars, is an interesting washing machine. And IT used to be so insignificant, we could just kind of need to talk about IT, but IT would be around that if not so insignificant anymore. No, when you're the top fifteen of buyers of treasury's, your buys are no longer irrelevant.

They're now potentially the marginal Price sector or or at least part of the marginal Price setting. So it's interesting. So start monday was where .

I can I agree.

I I mention get market down.

That happens. We've got this is that seventies talk, by the way, this for people who have not been watching you, not been this, this is twenty, twenty three. When you're comparing them by way.

you watching burns, other burns in the front end, right? And then you've got bulker .

in the back end. Well, but but let to be clear, you you, you, James, you've talked about this. Walker had a thirty four percent that to G, D, P. We are one hundred and thirty five percent. We are one hundred percent literally in UK ima, compared to you if you did what volker did now.

now raising tes twenty percent, I don't know what the word is.

is we don't have a word we have recently we have depression. What's the word for medicalising?

I remember .

my parents in the eighties paying 42 percent mortgage。

So I got a fell in this guy. I got to show you one chart basin, what you said. I was in a chat this morning and a bomberg chat.

And the guy I pointed out about to go in the four, in gas, in the Price, ever tries to guess, which is three travel going to two? These sort is closer to three fifty come ably going to two fifty. We have a massive excess supply.

We need export. There's going to be a trade war. And he says, what does that matter of C.

P. S. I just shows here's cruel typically versus to sixty moth months moving average always get cheap. It's not cheap yet here. C P, I.

But the bottom line is the difference when people to talk about the seventies is it's completely different. Number one, we had one major vent com that cause the uh inflation. But the bottom is we have U. S. Stock market at two times GDP in the seventies, IT was half G D P.

So to me, when people talk about inflation, if I will look for a trader that's IT right there, if we just get a little back up in the cycle, there is deflation that you need IT to keep going up to keep flax stable now that we're up a third. And when you're basis to, we expect P P I C P, I say strong, but that's how far away we are. That's why just I I know I hate people hate here, but the bitcoin beta to um as to the dark markets, usually free x so this to me is when you talk about inflation, inflation and deflation risks, the U S.

Dark market has to stay elevate. Everything else is kind of my my world tilt. And certainly commodities with go going up and everything going on is still towards deflation.

So obviously you've got ahead really quickly. Say so you ve got what stops crude, typical, two cheap tracks. So there is a level at which the deflation or the disasters tion, what everyone to call of oil Prices, is problematic. But if we have tariff s that are going to be inflationary, but gas Prices and oil are going to be coming down this much, can they are offset and be yeah healthy? So was right.

That was the thing. What I publish this morning. Also the key point is care is are short term inflationary for goods in this country trades about ten percent of our GDP most arrest the world who has export to us just to stay stabilized.

It's closer to twenty percent of their GDP. So sure, in the short turn, the more significant thing is tax cuts and physical stimulus. But that's my point, is if you see gasoline go down to two, which I think IT will, that's pretty deflationary.

But is that just get the Prices of consumer goods? Will that counter inflation will see from the tariff set most differences like food.

foods going down corn right now, four box at the same Price. IT was traded in one thousand nine hundred seventy drop, one of fifty percent from the pink, but most of the full cost and transportation dollars.

ninety thousand dollars and ninety thousand.

A good point. A bit kind, a bit kind. What is the point is when you talk about foods and taken with out about fu foods and major component C P I, lot of the costs of food is not the actual cost from where you produce IT is the .

transportation yeah at the energy costs is the largest uh component of of C P I without a doubt. You know um it's it's. It's the largest driver of IT.

Um and that's the really good point. You know we had the oil bargo way back in the seventies. There was a big that was that was the driver of inflation. That's exactly I agree.

It's the the question is just how much easy we're going to see, how much uh expands to the moistly er we want to see in the in in the coming six, twelve, eighteen months i'm bedding, we're going to see more easing. That's just you know, I I I I think you're right, mike, that if the stock market pulls back twenty thirty percent, that would probably be healthy overall long term. However, we are a nation that is where were an economy that the whole western economy is addicted to death.

And there's it's it's a very difficult, you know, IT is gonna like landing a jet liner on a piano wire, you know, to to avoid to avoid a you a an upward spiral of debt from all of this barwon. I mean, if you have GDP come down, we're so financialization you have GDP come down ten, twenty percent. I mean, then you're you just talk about you're talking to explaining on those deficits, which I think they're not.

All we talk about dogs and all we talk about the department government efficiency. I mean, i'm going to be talking about this out in new orleans this next week about how difficult is going to be to to actually overcome you know these deficits are just where can you cut? You're not be able to cut until you get into the bone to get to get past all those deficits that we have too many entitlements.

So and that will only get worse if we have a recession. If we if we if we have a pullback only gets worse because entitlement ts gets get worse in a recession and then you have both your expenses going up and your income coming down and is just so this is what they're trying to avoid, but powers trying to avoid IT without without having A A, A resurgence of inflation. Good luck. I I would just when I wouldn't want to be in his seat, that's that's my thing I wouldn't want to be in to see cause I don't see how he wins and and I went all and .

likes to .

say nothing stops to change. I mean, so pull the department of two pieces first. When I look at my t chart, I see the relationship between oil and inflation and understand that I agree.

I think drill, baby, drill, I know you wanted talk about this mind. Let you go off on in the second means. oil.

I think oil does go down. I know goes down to forty, but it's certainly good dropping. And I think most people believe that, that will happen.

That directly impacts consumer inflation directly. And so that lowers inflation. The problem with the thesis of deflation is where printing money, like in yeah that the old money printer go vermin.

And so financial as a inflation is likely to offset consumer inflation, which by the way, is exactly what they want. So you know when the government wants something to happen, they're doing something and it's happening. They're not going to change that.

So you there is this really interesting dynamic, mean, stocks are stupidly expensive in the accurate? Yes, you're right. You know, two twenty G, D, B.

The government wants IT to be you up, if they can, because they want the wealth effect. AmErica is in the seventies, ties was a producer economy. AmErica a in the in the twenty years is a consumer.

That is a matter of difference. You pointed that out yourself. And so when I hear that, I think that the trend toward financialization is still here, isn't changing anytime.

So and so H, I don't resolve that a deflation because you can't have deflation when the dominator continued IT gets printed at that the rate that printed. And so he needs to go some place. And that's where I think this cycle is.

The bitcoin deal link from the stock market, the three x data is really anyone has ever traded will tell you beta is incredibly unstable. And so beta battery means what something goes up. The other thing goes up more of .

a red in a billion different ways.

right? And so when you look at at comparing invidia to the nasdaq, invidia beta is pretty high to right. And but that actually intrusively makes sense, right?

When you'd look at bitcoin, the stock market, when there are a days like last week when the stock market drop two percent in bit line went up five percent, you know what the hell is that me? And so yeah, you smooth out and you look at IT. IT is a really interesting question.

Are we reaching the critical mass moment? And the answer to that question will be determined by what happens with strategic bitcoin reserves. And and that's a totally different conversation. Let's take that for.

oh god, I was just say that we know someone else was a strategic big coin reserve. I do want to go back to oil later, but this is that in this is just getting ridiculous. In the most amazing rain, microtv has acquired fifty one thousand seven hundred eighty point six billion dollars at eighty eight thousand six hundred and twenty seven dollars a bitcoin.

This has to be by far at least a dollar value, by far his biggest purchase for microtv, four point six billion dollars worth right here. But I want to show you like something. I just saw this article come up actually on the block while you were talking. Marathon has announced to seven hundred million dollar convertible note intention to acquire more bitcoins.

Now we have a bitt coin minor that's going to follow the microstrip gy playbook of raising debt to buy more bitcoin when they're already buying and mining vici, right? So if anyone was curious that some of these banners are selling, I don't think they're selling if they're raising a convertible note here to buy more bit point. I mean, finally, we have another company here that's going to do the .

same thing big enough, big enough to do IT.

yeah. I mean, IT is worth pointing out. I just noticed that funding rates according to coin glass are back up to the levels you know point o three to five standard is point on one, so triple standard uh, based on open enders funding rate uh when that happens uh recently uh, when that happens at generally assign of a local top, uh that doesn't mean much for at ninety thousand.

So, you know, whatever, you know, IT IT always takes a while to get through these kind of of psychological levels, but people should be careful IT. Also, what IT is indicative of is people seeing the microstrip gy, the marathon news, and buying on leverage. Now that doesn't mean they go because people there could be spot buying underneath, but IT is worth those people trading the markets to understand .

that fifty one thousand seven hundred eight people, what's not like four months worth of mining at the current supply.

So I got that little, but this is the first time in my almost forty year history, is business. Within two months, I had two fathers ask me about their sons holding of microstrip gy that they were concerned. I've just never had that at me for night.

Full disclosure, because inside a bloomer, I can't really trade bitcoin and things, but I was able do proxies. So about to some microstrip. Gy, a few years ago I was kind of shark kw.

Easily get me a ten x that was not usually my works when I get a tank. And some usually don't want to be join IT. So I had to sell a bit of IT because that he came over way.

The key thing I want to point out is just lifting off what day is a little bit. I'm completely biased towards the key thing i've been saying about goal for years as you can hold gold anymore without some big coin in this space or you're just missing what's happening in this world of rapping, dancing technology. But the way I look at IT and still keep the same, as long as day is going up at this patience, you Better off having that risk are just over way in bitcoin.

But at some point, when we have some correction and downward drift in beta, which does happen in besides only seen IT, some of us have seen as long term, we are overdue for that. Then we should see that test. Now course, dave, you all think.

But going going out before, I would love to see IT. And IT certainly has lately because we have this wonderful opium of a new president, the cypher prison. But if still haven't seen that period when we see a little bit of bar mark equities in bitcoin outperforming that, that's to me in in the macro o big picture.

So to me that at some point is gonna witch and that's bottom line. I'm still completely boosh goal. I don't see no, you may talk about you know debates in the currencies.

Some goals been out performing data for three years now, the stock market on a total return basis. And that's just not a good time when all you hear I I see N C B C S A I driven stocks that the rock is reading IT. Now we see lately go and tilting towards golden version equally, that's kind of significant. But I don't maybe we should come out in that alone.

yeah. I mean, I think when you look at that and i've always been you know i've always someone of a gold bug in a sense. Uh, I just think think the monetary component goal, I wrote A A post over the weekend where I tried to explain to someone why what the case of bitcoin was.

And the short answer is that goal be monetize silver. And effectively, if you look at IT in the yards across, its fifteen times rare and IT trades eighty five times higher. And so I look at this, a very simple map conclude that around eighty percent of goals, value is Price, is its monetary.

Price is the nominated to everything that's going on. And I believe that the com will be modified gold or at a very, at a very minimum, equity quate to gold, because gold as a whole represents seven, eight percent of monetary aggregates when IT used to be a hundred, and you know, a proper dominator would be a hundred. So these are room for both, and I think that, that makes sense.

But the bear of the bulk ase for bitcoin is IT getting into that league and that you know that that is something that that is sailor talks about IT, but he goes to all financial assets and he can and he also believes and and he may not be wrong, that uh, that financialization is, if anything, accelerating. And therefore the terminal state of all this has to be higher. The problem with all the analysis that we do when we look backward is we're looking at a regime where where we've been in the field era since ninety, seventy one.

And so you have A A A rich history of fifty years of financial markets to look at. During which financialization, which is what James talked about, has been accelerating in the whole time. And so you kind of have to lift back the you peel back the curtain there.

Okay, what's going on? And so your point correct that, mark, the GDP, you know fifty percent of GDP know fifty percent you know to two percent to two times, meaning related to grow synthetic C, C product to what we build the stock market is four times more expensive than IT wasn't. Seventies is an incredibly important point.

The question is, is that structural because of financialization, which may may not reverse because if if IT reverses, I mean, I don't know how the us who is a consumer economy anymore. If you literally cut its a ability to consume by seventy five percent, which is essentially what you say. I'm not saying it's onna happen. I'm just saying that the the the if then else I was the first first year computer science would say it's a kind of a dangerous scenario and so that that sort of why you know you you yet me looking at funny you know you when you go through that because you're not wrong if this if then else I mean, what happens?

Yeah and look, big coins got a bunch of things going on forward.

You're the etf of mattering uh that uh I I remember reading this weekend um I can't remember who was writing about an apologize but um he did he did they uh and analysis IT looks like it's about he was fried couper saying he was about thirty x he was he was free crew were saying he was about a thirty x multiple um you know trading friction on those etf bias, meaning that the the Price moves by thirty x amount of dollars that comes in. So um that the etf being mature matching is important. Uh that's one thing.

The the option on trump well it's it's part hop um that we get the the bitcoin um reserve and that's really more unlimited than is uh trump but it's also just a relief. It's a relief that this this administration has been so antagonistic on the whole industry that you know if that gives people the Green light to go ahead and dip back in, you know and then you get to a Price. You get to a Price here that it's like wild above that all time high.

That all time high was years ago. Now it's holding IT. And so instituto cal investors not just hedged funds anymore, then the offices, small institutions, you know there the starting they're starting to add to this as a small position, your pension fund to adding a half of one percent to their positions.

You do have the microstrip gy effect where Michael has a two and a half times multiply on this thing. So every time you you buy some, his his stock goes up and gives them ability to tap into his A, T, M and buy more. It's it's madness.

It's a little bit of money glitch. How long can I go on for? I don't know.

What should the multiple be on on microsoft? I don't know. I think it's more than one. I think it's less than six or seven who knows in between. He doesn't even know and he admit that.

So but the reality is that you've got that when you also have the gap um accounting that's coming up in twenty twenty five where you can you can actually mark your bitcoin holdings to market, which allows more companies to buy IT and put on their treasury without worrying about damaging or impairing their baLance. Gy, and so it's it's these are important developments and it's not just that risk as anymore isn't mattering, yes, is IT mattering rapidly? Uh, I mean, it's going to slow. And I think that the the instance adoption is going to be really important in this cycle in this next eighteen months can be really important. A driver of of stability in this Price and hopefully, IT will help damp and out some the volatility until we get to that ridiculous blow off top as usual and then and that draws down and equal uh you know amount of frenzy or pace.

Yes, it's worth doting on the the corporate side that the law changed in twenty twenty four. But the way IT worked is you have to start IT when your next fiscal year started post january. It's worth noting that a lot of companies have fiscal years that start november first, that and OK over thirty first. And so worse, I think that part of the buying you're seeing is starting now. So as a calendar year, uh, you're right about january first, but that depends when the fifth year is the companies in different companies in different clear and Frankly, the qualify know where the majority is.

So James, I got ta 4 up with you。 You nailed IT an october, August fifth. We could drop low.

fifth. You like that. And by so, great call, great move.

theyve. Scott, you agreed. But I have to ask him now about position management.

And even if you can answer the question now, you basically up about one percent in two months, three months. What do you do? Well.

I mean, it's different .

for me because i'm on a bitcoin standard in my hedge fund. You know we are I don't hold the U. S.

Dollars and everybody knows that that's what that's what our heads fund does. That's what our investors expect. And so I I weight everything on a risk reward to bitcoin.

So what that means, mike, is that at this Price, i'm probably more willing to to use some of that bitcoin underlying bitcoin at a risk reward versus and company that will benefit from the the expansion of the ecosystem over the next five to seven years. So IT gives me a different IT gives me a different baseline in order to relocate to other opportunities at a longer term then right here. So that's that's one thing, you know um and you sing .

bitcoin into bitcoin companies yeah .

and and I know that you know the ones i'm that I expect for long term uh, growth and so is IT. IT is a different risk reward. And so where does that risk reward play out? Now I still believe, mike, that if we don't, you know I I still believe that we ultimately do have more money printing, that we do have easing in monetary policy, that we do not see a massive drawdown in the market.

If we do see a drawdown, it's gonna short lived and just opportunistic for us. And so, uh, I I do believe that bitcoins is gonna taken hold. This ninety thousand million level it'll bump up against one hundred thousand bunch times that may down into the eighty or seventies for a minute, but then want to get through one hundred and holds that I think that's IT IT IT becomes it's just self fulfilling.

You know you know what is like all of you, you and dave, no, execute life. Got even watching this for a while. But institutions, they they want to know that they're stability in the Price and then they they will start dipping in and really start accumulating after that and IT just becomes self fulfilling. And when IT takes one hundred thousand dollars, I mean, the this is an asset that cannot be denied any more.

I mean, you're talking about something you you you pull up the uh the largest assets in the world, right? And there is that there is that the list of them, Scott? Um I can't member what yeah I mean the largest assets from the world in bitcoins hovering around seven, eight, it's right up against ddi a anko. I mean this is this is the largest energy company in the world .

IT had tasted, by the way, when we were in ninety three.

I mean, look at this is right there. It's about silver. It's I mean, so this IT can't be denied that this is an actual asset.

Now, you know, people talk about two, they talk about, they talk about risk IT IT. IT is up here with the risk assets. And I will I absolute IT that IT has been the tip of the risk here for a very long time. However, what I can't, what people are getting their heads around, is that I got to do some work on this because this is real, like it's not going away. You've declared dead account this times over the last ten years.

And here IT is again. So I get, I can, I feel scout with one of that. We all know how history is going to view bitcoin. I mean, not for certain. You can judge history certainly, but I agree with safety nomics book, the bitcoin standard, the questions, how's history going to view doge and SHE? I know.

Yeah, I knew idea.

Have me to honestly what we're going to look at that and say you I was kind clear.

I think I think make you joes differently and SHE will we knew actually just because current status of the government, I think that dog has potentially mean its way into extreme long term relevance for Better, for worse. I mean, when you have a government agency or know whether it's officially in agency or not, but that is called doge in a presidency with the vic and and alon running yet, I think that goes may actually somehow find its way into a relevant part of .

conversation and and it's a proof of work that IT doesn't IT wasn't didn't have the mack conception but you know um we was made as over the weekend as a joke, right? I mean so I think I think to .

answer your .

question on my on the on the mean coins, I think I think this cycle, and we're talking about american hall, uh, about with him the other day, I think this cycle, investors, traders in fast money, they are admitting that this stuff is just nonsense and they just trying to pick up fast force to get some money out of IT. I mean, that's just they don't think that there's really any utility and there's no there's no.

by the way, there's an interesting conversation, their James, which is that we had this, I would say, year six month period, whatever, that really peaked in march, in April. But mean, coins now google searches are the highest they ve ever been.

But we had this period where the c in the united government pushed so hard against everything, crypto u that people started launching mean coins specifically with no utility to say, hey, these are actually fine. From a regulatory perspective. We do whatever we want with these.

They were sort of a push back again. We can actually put the same names on them, but we don't need to do that now. So actually interesting place for for me coins.

If you don't need to only do me coins to be you squared with the regulators and you can actually start to launch. And me, we had the rumor last week, obviously, which I will put my money against tapering. But the rumor last week was that trump is going to make any crypto launched in the united states or anyone who brings their company back tax free.

Literally no capital gains taxes on anything launched in the united states. I don't see that necessarily happening, but you don't really need to launch meme coins if you can launch anything you want from a legal company in the U. S. Not.

I think blackrock inst black work against that, you know um unless there's a way that I would work with the etf. And dave, you're little bit you're much more um you tune to the the inner workings of etf, but I don't know how that would work. So um you know I just the point is though, I think this cycle, mike, people realized that these mean coins are just mean coins. Is nobody even putting there's no even trying to pretend that they have value is just like this rock is a picture of a rock is a JPEG you can copy and put in on your profile you want to and it's it's worth it's not worth two million dollars, but maybe we trade around IT because it's a fun thing to trade around.

And I just think those I think those maybe will transact the meme coin category as a sort of stand alone asset because of the government.

And I yeah I I I .

you to like cat with dog face.

Wifi had, I know, yeah, exactly. yeah. I mean.

did we talked about that a lot? The fact that mean coins were sort of a push back against cancer? And if you not, don't have to push back again, st. Zer, does that mean we will see people start to focus more on utility or launching things that at least have some sort of .

reported use case? Well, I mean, yeah, I could couldn't help, but I I couldn't find the the, I just use grab to the virtual image.

Hey, I the .

there is a long term thesis in a short term theses. The long term is, if you are a mean coin that is going to be worth anything and these guys worth billion. So I mean, this is just kind of crazy.

There will need to be a way for the holders of those coins to participate in some sort of motivation community benefit. They're gonna to transition in the short term. They'd been the people who built these things, built IT specifically that they wouldn't.

And so mean, coins are more or less like fractional otherness of mini babies. And there's nothing wrong with that. I mean, there's broken, but I always use the analysis of nfs broken bag versus many baby. So birken bags know we can buy birkin bag for forty thousand dollars.

It's you know thirty dollars worth of lever package in a way that people pay a lot of money for IT uh and the told their value or as being babies with anyone and way I think it's a decent movie where at alphanet s plays taiwan a uh the whether they was called my car member, uh you know people for a dollar fifty worth of fluff bought things and spent, you know thousands of dollars, right, you know, for particularly rare being babies. Now what IT comes to mean coins, whether there is, depending on how the supply is organized, you really you're basic bearing fractious pieces of that. Is that really a sustainable trend? I mean, maybe, mean, who knows? I mean, I don't know.

But I what is a sustainable trend is if you have a community of people who are logging into something and put and putting their right balls there, you can monitise, IT and create merge and other sorting stuff, then it's fine. I mean, but if not, then those things are going to zero. Uh, they go to zero and thirty years, but I will go to zero because you have to have somebody, right, you know? And that matters.

Now the thing that i've found amusing is I don't see how doge coin benefits from the department of government efficiency unless there's some way to make that bridge. I mean, it's no different than long island city from LG island, the long island blockin, right? And so no IT is what IT is saving.

People like are jammed into this stuff. And no is the great washing machine of money. And and you know, my talks about this all the time and is just money liquidity searching to find a hole.

And IT should be the opposite. IT should be liquidity flow to what's going to be the most economically relevant tic, but that's not what we have here. And so it's yeah I think it's a great educated thee question you know all this stuff that we think is bullshit, know what will happen to IT.

And I think bitcoin is dramatically not bulshed IT. I think that there are multiple platforms that can generate no actual revenues into their platform and that you know to holders. But then we have all the stuff that there's nothing.

And so who knows? I mean, I don't know. I don't want to get a lot of hate.

But like when you want to value U S, is you actually have to know what the economics is. like. X R P is my favorite ite one for asking the question. And we kind of a show where extacies basically doubled over the last. We can have two weeks.

Give a take right? You know, it's pretty close to a double right cut, and that is interesting because they're single exertions to get use for all these big bank applications. And so my answer to that is, okay, cool.

That's great. What does that do to the demand? How much X R P is necessary, right? And so you need to understand supplying that mean I mean, when my work that oil it's supplying that mean .

yeah just to be clear, when I talk about dogs and I recommend dose, i'm recommending department of government efficiency like issue is you know the department of government efficiency I mean so yeah IT is is you need to know where the value is for sure that that's one hundred percent a accurate day. But it's got to like.

look, I just is .

your background and .

and I looked up, I look this up. So doge coin is the four hundred and twenty eight largest asset in the world.

That's big.

Actually four hundred and twenty eight at fifty three point six billion dollar gap.

I think it's bigger than the guard.

So at four .

thirty five.

holy crap, how do you see that very guard right here? Four thirty five, that is a sounding so it's .

a wonderful thing. I just have to introduce some of the sensibility I learn listen the roling stones in high school um because they're like you toban listen to next oex that plan and things but just the headline and seen in truck about to make U S. Cypher capital the planet.

I do enjoy this and I do enjoy hearing the things that i've heard similar stuff back there in major asset market peaks that all the script of people are using spies and cues is a store value. Oh okay, so this is a mass of panzi team that keeps gone up. That's why my raters are gold. And I um I and once some of the you also realized that yeah they are just see a spectra cess if that's great and not and wrong with trading and make IT go out. But at some point we know these things forever.

Well, I can keep in mind something so like if trump actually did pass the rule or got a rule pass that did, he said that is a very big deal, is the rule that that they talk about is american companies issuing crypto s can do so tax free. What will that be? encourage.

That will encourage in a lot of new ucar, yp tus, which means that all the sudden now there's a lot more supply. What ended the internet bubble? A lot of people talk about lots of things, but one of the things that end IT was a of an IP s yeah.

And so massive wall, you incredible amount of supply hitting the market for all this crap. Now does anything that have have but anything to do a bit going not really does have a lot to do with everything else. Yes, he does.

I mean, but put put yourself in the situation of a the U. S. Base Crystal company, that language for four years all the sudden now not only could you where you basically couldn't issue a token as any form of financing, now of a sudden the administration says, you know what, if you are U.

S. B. Crypt company, not only can you issue a token, but here we're going to help you and make a tax free to anybody who provides this.

Well, if you're U. S. Base script company, you're going to issue tokens.

I mean, I kind of sit on the board of A U. S. Base script company.

And if that rule came in, we'd be crazy not to issue with token, right? Just think about that. Think about what that actually means.

course. That also means the value. U. S. B, critical companies have done nothing probably hired today than the other time, but it's also quite possible, won't able to pass that.

So we have to adopt, wait and see. But IT IT is a big deal. Supplying the men will be talking about this is these rules conformation.

You know what that happens? And you know you guys were talking earlier about treasury secretary. I think that's kind of an interesting conversation too.

Let's talk about apartments because I think that's a good conversations. What we say about .

that make their live. I'd rather let me go after because you guys heard some interesting comments that I want to pick you back on the y but rather than me saying everything. And James, you were tried about .

logic for treasury. Mike, I think you were talking about the faculty oil, but maybe James, start there and look.

I have done I done we know these guys are have done in a search on what their recent statements are and what their recent positions are. Um you know latinic mike, you can you can get into that because you have a Better visibility there um but he would not be your typical he would not be your typical pic you know it's just not that would be kind of a non outsider but he he would be no no wall street um so it's going to be interesting to see what these guys say in in their in their interviews. And you know the the most interesting part about this whole conversation actually for me is that you had elon out there saying, hey, can you guys give me comments and who you think should be in nominated and you know like on a on A X, on a tweet, an exposed and so it's really interesting to see people wearing .

in on that mike. Well, this the inside scoop on let nic. This is not my view, but as I point out, facts is i'd started trading treasuries in thousand nine hundred eighty eight. I've worked for number primary dealers. I've never heard anything body in the treasury business, anything nice about him.

He's just very widely hated and maybe because he's just tremendous businessman and he makes IT very difficult for people like me used to do business with this firm, and I pay them lot of commissions to counter. I still have my four thousand dollars sweater's from a friend. Mini died in nine eleven because I did to trade with them and cost me four thousand commission.

I made money in the trade, but that was could have been three thousand. So it's just a unique thing that you know that the trumps y widely like in new york. It's just kind of thing you think think the thing is treasury to me what's going to be print trumps major goal.

He's got a problem right now as we the bond violinists are starting to show problem um yields are going up with the fed cutting is what part of the reason of fed had to stop cutting because this is not a good sign for inflation expectations in the massive increase in deficit changes all that all the time. The point is right now kicking in where we might be having that point where yells going up. The problem in the treasury, he's going to need to treasure, do everything they do to keep bond yells done.

Maybe that means issue more bills and bonds. So whoever your point is gonna to help his mange focus, he needs a stock market to go up. The key thing I wanted to tilt over that was a sistani al. statement. With that hit this weekend was.

The trump um he choses the oil fracking boss right as the energy sector and I had to mention that because the current energy security bosses, Jennifer grand home, who's a lawyer from the california, look at that activision tion. That means massive drive will massive supply and already preexisting trends of um common is cruel gasoline. These are going down will gain some fuel and pretty significantly so he can get a treasury said to keep bony les down every dogs that maybe getting effective by them issuing more shorter and stuff.

That's pretty deflation. I have to mention that because the word inflation and trump are all the same sense. It's a complete conder. It's a complete consensus. So maybe i'm pointed out from a this standpoint, at least when i'm seen was happen a treasury security happen in energy is more potentially deflation is just one of things. You do the trade when you see the market all leading to one side, maybe is a little bit science that might go the other way.

It's interesting because as you say that about um about lta c, because both dana ad from third point and cow bas both wait in this past weekend and saying that, that percent would be far more qualified and a Better and a Better pic. So it's think that that's where wall street is, is kind of coming out on on the front end.

Yeah, I think that it's really an interesting if you anyone actually greeted this. But if you know the history mean the reason, how would logick is his? A big impression on wall street is IT is and I and I had well, like a lot of people, I had friends and colleagues who who parish on nine eleven. So I know the story well. I worked for kind called jeffreys for a while in between the organ, Stanley and salmon brothers and jeffrey is was trying to you try to compete with counter in the natural trading market, 对， no cattle by selling how at lotte que have been innovators and and Frankly, disrupters people hated he speed, hated IT because IT took out a lot of the edge of the dealers in the market.

So if you let someone whose reputation is as an innovator in the disruption, uh, that is has enormous appeal to trump and don't underestimate that because that is his reputation uh and yes, there are a lot of people who said he was sharp pell boat, uh, while doing so you know, speaking as someone with exceptionally sharp elbows over my career, I you know kind of you know struck my shoulder at IT. I understand that um you know I do what to do you guys on occasion sometimes I am trying to moderate myself. I'm calmer than I used to be but you po people who invite this people that the problem I I can tell you how many stories I have, uh, people and that Morgan standing while I was.

They are building programme trading or at salomon brothers to sales with parny doing your other automation and building a central this book. I mean, i've unemployed more wall sty traders than most, I mean, hundreds of wall street traders i've held on employee by developing technology over my career. And trust me, every one of them, like everyone, but a lot of them are like that fun of a bit, you know, kind of person about me.

So I am quite confident that that's a large part of why people believe that way. I because i've heard the same thing, I ve never met the man. So I person al interaction within whatsoever. We probably know hundreds of people in common one degree of separation, but that's the reputation is disruptive. And I like the allocation in this administration as opposed to, uh, a detraction .

move fast and breaks things on steroid are new government yeah .

and it's interesting. But mike, I think you know what you point IT out obviously about a lawyer from new york versus a fracking boss. I think that by polarity is across almost every appointment. That's the story because because actually the current administration had pushed so far in one direction that those people were not moderate. Now you're getting the natural pendulum swing to the farther side of the other. And so it's going to be probably i've been been a alive as long as some of many of you, but this should be the largest gap between the appointments and generally just what the government does that we've probably ever seen before. I mean, like a bush a bush senior to clinton, switch over really wasn't that big deal because they were both sort of in the meeting.

Yeah, yeah, they were. They were much closer. I mean, listening to the that talk, you know, year and a half ago, I mean, I couldn't help that smile.

He talked about taking a chance oh, that to government, which then mean an architect campaign. With that, I don't know. We came up with the first, but you know, IT is fascinating, uh, to watch what's going on.

Now if you ask me and you've heard IT on the show, I really do believe the only way death T I not say it's onna work, but I think the only path I feel like doctor strange and in adventure and game, but the only path that works is a massive wave of deregulation for to create economic hyper growth. Liberating A I set is otherwise with two hundred percent det GDP, which is what we have this factor in, uh, social security and and medicare. Uh, you can escape that.

I mean, japan has been been a printing their way to to to live with IT through three decades. But you can escape that. The only way that was escape in the hyperbole th and the only way to get hyper growth is to unleash a wave of innovation now can not be done. I honestly don't no I do know that the only possibility .

that making people .

nervous about latina is I think in a speech um at the at the R N C S uh or add a mats car garden uh he he was talking about how in the sixteen hundreds we had no tariffs. I mean, we had no income tax all in all. Yes, only Terry.

And so that's kind of making people like a little bit like, hold on, think through this for a minute, you know um but today I don't know what what unleash that that massive productivity. I mean, it's it's it's hard to it's hard to like that. This is we are not doing a tough spot.

We must have B, D, P expand. And people say where there's an A I know there could be an A I explosion here. There's there's A I miracle, but A I is deflationary. So what is that to your GDP?

You know human quality of life ever occurred during a period of deflation called the industrial revolution that are trying to replicate? I do not I think that that you're right. I think that trying to fight, trying to use history at as an exact repeat is is a false eron.

Ah IT rimes, a dozen propety and I think there are our men and we could dive into that. I don't want to do that. Now there are many ways of looking at IT, but just as the general form of policy disruption is necessary, there is definitely need for disruption. The question you have to actually what is the treasury section to do trade secrets to print, and potentially needs to trade.

The one thing you get of powered latinas treasure secretary, without any question, is just like when Robert rubin was first, was warning the second treasury secretary and I had the pleasure of working with him and I two meeting with, so I not can say no very well, but before he he went into that administration was you end up with a trader in that sea. If you have a trader in that sea and this whole notion of a big, quite strategic reserve, you could expect two things. First, they'll do IT check that you wouldn't know about IT until .

after the purchases standing.

That's been the key thing been missing at the fed in my career is someone little more trading actum. And you're right, you know, trading.

And so we need to understand what that means. So what does that mean? That means by biton for a long term.

But understand that you're not going to hear bo about IT until the U. S. Government is already in position.

Because why would they? They don't want everyone to front run because he instead we announced if you did something like best to on the bill without actually doing anything. Every other country in the world that was thinking about IT will buy IT before. It's sort of like ask yourself the question and a lot of your audience doesn't understand them.

I'll ask yourself the question why institutions use dark poles to trade and the answer is institutions where buying positions in less liquid box always try to keep that intention to buy a secret until after they're forced to disclose that by a 4f ninety days later or whatever the hell is。 And in the reason is because that everyone knows they're buying and then the surprises going to go before they get to buy. It's the same to why coin around build out of them to hide when our clients are buying or selling until you know they're up and then they can tell you or not tell you in the same reason and buy with coin base does that sailor users does exactly the same thing.

And the ice are orders have become pretty standard to the back.

Yeah back and back in the day, large headphones would flow around a block of million chairs to sell and that, you know, while that was floating around, they would .

the market and start .

buying IT. That's not proving literally a million shares. The big you J P.

Morgan Morgan stay in marylin golan, float that around and they say, yeah, you know the Price not right. And then they are in there buying IT. The first day I was sitting on the O. T. C.

Desk at at solon brother, day one, literally day one, and talking the traders. And I was watching them train a new trader and to the new traders says, okay, when you get a by order to buy five hundred thousand chairs of microsoft, what's the first thing you do guys said start beating for for microsoft? You can no, you put your quote offering microsoft heavier than where your bit is. That was they were literally they are now that is actually illegal now, but that was how to train an entire generation traders.

What I started trading and ript U I thought that cell walls meant that um you know, you were in trouble and by walls meant that that somebody was buying heavily until I watched enough to realize that to sell all or just someone hold Price so they could buy at a bay wall with just some boy's selling them and letting the fall out from underneath literally the opposite wants .

to take it's a class. It's a classic walk street trader montreal. When the junior says to the boss, I want to buy the stock in, the boss is okay, sell five on their shares.

And the traders, no, I want to buy. So just do what I said. So that was easy, okay? Not by five thousand chairs. Just want to could test the liquidity first.

You ve got to push the Price down to where liquid or up if you're going to short, but you ve got to push the Price down to where .

the liquidity and where people stop. IT meant to be make .

IT a .

bid 啊 ah never give .

kids the train。

But sorry to go down the raval, Scott. But the point here is with with if their day trader at the helm of treasury expect that that changes market dynamics, right? IT just does and worth understanding what that would be will be talking about that when and if there is an appointment made.

And then, of course, obviously, the other appointments that are going to have very large effects in our industry, R, F, T, C and C, C, R, F, C, C and C, F, T C, as well as O, C, C and F D I C. Because of the the continued uh, uh existence of Operation choke point even now, which has been documented on x and you've seen that I ms, I know how long is still out there pointing out what's going on until the bitter. And so you know there's a lot of these appointments are going to matter a lot, but they do seem to be moving at a significantly faster speed. Uh, then prior administrations.

no, they're ready for at this time. You know, obviously, I think there was the same of that. Nobody knew trumped win last time.

And I took months and months and months to get disappointments in order at this time. They've been long ahead of IT. And I think has the Mandate to get done what he wants. I mean, the inevitable consequence y here, or the inevitable situation will be that we will deregulate everything, probably push too far in the other direction, and then two years the democratic rutles will be pissed off and we'll get either .

congress said.

some things get done, goes every time.

Scot, that's a key point. It's it's it's uni understate the human nature of this embolden and human bean who's now a president IT we'd got to go with IT he uh, survived the couple sassine attempts major p peaching simply now he's got a complete card lunch. He's got two years minimum and then it's all about his legacy.

What's he going to be do and this is gonna get on, you know hit the ground running as much as we've ever seen. H and it's just exactly what at one of ourselves by mister generic c master expected you're going to get a complete um U S. government.

That's nothing. But yes, men, they are going to do at trump says. And one thing I have to really give him credit for his complete flip on crypt s member five years ago cryptology horrible member, what I mentioned trying to do right before he left treasure sector. Now it's complete flip that was impressed. O yeah but I think I don't know.

I think he's listening to the that I think he's listening to uh you know to elon like he's listening for the first time that that in my experience and not just being the bulldozer, but right, the reality is, and though the long bone is tell on you, is they expect him to pour fire on the economy one way or another and is somehow or other in order to expand the money supply and liquidity to make the same rip during his administration.

That's what he wants. He wants the economy to absolutely rip, whether that's in namal, GDP or real GDP terms. That's the question. So but that's .

the point to make the rip though he gotten take a little pain. That's my point is before you get to the the end of his career, do IT first. Do IT right away.

Like all these terrible and things that can be paying right away. The regulation takes a while to work through. So exactly, I mean, agree with you. That's why markets Price for perfection. Now we get the Normal little correction. Just give me a hundred, you know the S M, P, five hundred, nearest hundred week moving average inal stuff that used to happen, get that over with before becomes zit towards the end of this term. And that's my my thought is, yeah, he wants you to rip, but you can take a little pain first .

yeah I think that look, I would push back on matter thing. I mean, list ing anyone, whoever around company you're going to have an employee who is unhappy and they're going to say about a crap about you. So I honestly don't give a crap what he says.

What I can tell you is elon mosques, nobody y's yes man, the beck is is nobody y's yes man either these are people who have actually created wealth and done things and have very strong opinions. Uh, and yes, they want to make sure they are lying. But I don't think this is a yes man thing. I think this is what the help can we actually do. And I think it's going to be interesting because and I think you j, that's going .

quietly be influences you know the also journalist saying .

something that the number two most popular opinion piece is opinion disruption won't work at treasury. So you know you have the traditional financial markets that to from from their perspective, this group of people who are now going to running the country or something they haven't seen before and a is a difference and and i'm not going to say they're gonna break a few eggs as they do IT. I am going to say is it's the right thing to do.

I mean, there's specifically taking on the tweet that I mentioned, uh, where elan said that businesses usual isn't the right thing to do and there's everything well now IT is we need businesses usually the exact reassurance finial markets. And by the way, that we all we believe that for a long time, right a lot when you got fed, people want to know what's going to happen. So transparency, no, this isn't going to necessarily be, you know, a transparent, everything even killed kind of thing.

You know, the U. S. Economy is like an aircraft Carrier, and they want to try to steer IT like a, you know, and IT IT could be very interesting and we .

can see I use speed yeah .

whatever you get my point, my coin is that it's we don't know what we know is what they want to try to achieve. What they want to try to achieve is turning amErica back into where IT was fifty years ago, which was a manufacturing our house that build stuff as close to a financial zed marketplace that consumes stuff. And that is not a trivial transformation, but that is literally what jd vanes entire book is.

Your economic and IT is going to make a lot of people uncomfortable. And there are a huge pathways to investment in that some good, some bad. And we'll see let's see, let's see where IT is in top with basic policies to .

one thing I know is that this isn't going to stop on friday. I know we got a rap.

but it's not special that's estimated that that we've quested IT.

But yeah, but I was with A N L W on friday here, and we jokingly would happened to put IT on. And I watched the past thirty six track an, I said, no, happy thirty six tran that day to those who celebrate. Well, we are next next to nine billion now friday, no big deal.

And as I ject, when you've got you're a depth of citizen in a one hundred and six thousand and six twenty in your revenue president never hearing tax over fifteen thousand. Yes, I don't know who fixes that. Nothing that with the train, right?

ough. Is that so all that I tell me you that we are spending you were spending, you know four billion dollars more than we're making every single day. You know, they just is not.

You have to tell me I could do that life. So much more fun. Here we are having to be fistic al responsibility, responsible as, specially responsible as you died.

And guys, ten, five, six thousand. Awesome show. Michael gna chose you how to get a doge background.

At some point, I learned, I learned in real time for being honest, I learned real time. That's all we got. We will absolutely be back, uh, next monday.

How was an amazing show? Appreciate you guys show you up. The best part about making content in micro days at this point is that we're going na have a hell lot talk about for all.

There's going to be no dull week. I don't think so. So I will give you today, dave, my James given all follow. Thank you guys. I'll see next .

week I game for president OK that.