#1432 Adam Kobeissi | Bitcoin Is Going To Skyrocket After The Election
01:27:33 Share

Whats up, everyone? This is that any pumping o many of you know me is pump. You are listening to the pump podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours.

Why I ask questions in an effort to learn so would mean the world to me if you would subscribed to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on youtube and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get in to today's episode.

Let's go on. guys. Today, I have a very special tree for you. I have adam cobi.

He is the founder of the cobs I letter, and one of my favorite follows online. In this conversation, we break down everything you need to know about the U. S.

Economy, different assets and where the market is going. That's right. Atam is here. And we talk about everything from inflation, the national debt, why warm buffer is stacking three hundred twenty five billion dollars baLance homes have become so unaffordable.

What's going on with all the unripe losses on the bank baLance, what he thinks about gold, bitcoin stocks and much, much more. Adam brings tons of data, many, many unique insights. And I promise, if you wash this entire episode, you are gona learn so much.

So here is my conversation with adam kobi. Anthony piano runs pump investments. All views of him and the guest on his podcast are surely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of pop investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by pop or his gas as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular shade, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

R, U, in a profit from sports, and set yourself up to take home profit possible using crypto to fund your sports Better casino and poker account at bet online dot ag, you can avoid costly transaction fees, get your payout lighting fast, and do IT all security analysis with the highest deposit withdraw limits in the industry. If you want to get in on the action, do with the smart way with cyp du at online that g head to the website, sign up with promotion. De, pump one hundred to get one hundred percent bonus on your post today.

If you go in your deposit, we'll give you one hundred percent bonus if you use promo code, pop one hundred bet online, the game starts here, but online dot ag, go check out today, right? So I thought the best place started conversations with inflation. Inflation feels like the single most important thing for the average family in america.

That's the pain point for them. They see everything around them getting more expensive. How do you think about the aggregate inflation that has been created since twenty twenty in america?

It's it's been wild. If if if you you look at the data, if you had a dollar in your man count, twenty, twenty, it's worth seventy five cents. Today, the purchasing power is worth seventy five cents uh that are nearly unpresentable levels of inflation in modern times for the us.

Um and what's crazy is we also have compounding inflation. So right now C P I is back down to two point four percent of line. Uh a course at three point three, but you still building two point four and three point three and twenty five percent from the last four years.

So I think, uh, inflation is still a major problem. And that's why most people will tell you right now, most americans will tell you we are in a recession. Most they truly believe in a recession over fifty percent according to recent, recent polls.

Um and it's it's going to be a problem for the fed going forward. I think that's why I was pretty critical of the fifty basis point rate cut they did. I think now they're try to back backtrack and i'm sure we will talk about IT, but um inflations definitely still a problem that were dealing with them.

So one of things that i've held on over and over over again is this idea like once Prices go up, they don't come back down, right? People look at like the inflation numbers coming down with Prices are staying elevated. Um when you look at inflation, do you have concerns about the methodology, about the calculation, about the various a kind of you know math that is going to do well?

The first thing you said is a key point there. There is been this common misconception, I mean, not among the investors, but among the main story that this inflation is deflation. There are completely different things.

We still have rising Prices. As you know, they're just rising at a slow pace. And if you look at actually certain categories is going on to the math and all that, certain categories of C P I inflation are actually way higher than two percent or three percent, four percent.

I mean, look at a vegal insurance. You've had like seventeen percent inflation over the last year alone, just in vehicle insurance as something that has a material impact every single day on american family. Is american people that makes inflation feel that higher than IT really is? So um I think certain categories are definitely starting to uh impact more food away from home inflation, around four percent.

Eating out is a luxury. IT was luxury. Now even more of a luxury. Even fast food is becoming afford unaffordable for a lot of people that something we've .

been talking about um explain that wise fast .

food becoming well because going to your point. And so there's a content of inflation being entrenched in society. And what does that mean? It's when you have inflation for so long that wages go up and IT makes IT very difficult Prices to come back down, right? Because how would you lower Prices if your input costs up? And that's exactly what we've seen.

You're saying if you're mcDonald's and you're trying to run a business and you say, hey, i've got to pay my people more and so I would paying fifteen dollars. Now I pay twenty two dollars. You can bring the Price on the menu down because your input costs gone up too much and so you're stuck at higher Prices on .

the and even the inputs of the actual food have gone up. And the thing is, you can't go tell your employee, yeah okay, the inflation rates back down to two percent yeah where bring your wage from twenty two to seventeen? No, that's how IT works.

Once wages go up, even in two thousand and eight when we had a period of deflation, you really didn't see wages go down. So and there was something the fed thought they could avoid for years in twenty twenty two. They are saying, and inflation is transitory.

Inflation transitory. We have, uh, we're going to avoid entrements ment. And then now is exactly of that. Wages are going to go back down, input cost or not going to go back down. And I actually think we're going to see above average inflation for a few years. I think the facts, two percent target that is golden and level is is going to be very hard, dick, especially in the core basis for sustained period time.

Do you think that two percent target means anything? Or do you think theyll change IT? Like one of the things that we talked about for a while was like, do they just change IT from two to three and clam Victory and say, hour blow or three percent target? And like that ends up being good enough.

I think they had the chance to do that for years. And they made a clear that, I mean, every single fed meeting the speculation gone into IT was, well, the fed to raise to their target. Will they have even raise IT to two point one or two point two? They're not changing.

And it's like it's kind of the goldin rule for economists, two percent inflation. I can't remember where they started. I think was like some australian economy back in the day was like and and all the time and everyone kind of stuck to that rule. Uh, I don't see them changing that.

And so if we stay elevated levels, I think that you see your palter Jones stanly drug in Miller, many others talking about this kind of investment portfolio approach of be going to, uh, gold bitcoin. Even I was surprised that potter john publicly said that he thinks the nadel is being used as an inflation hedge but just they seem to be very convinced that inflation will be higher than that two percent target for the forseeable future.

That your view is a great I think and just think about IT, right? We have rate cuts. It's very strange, like logically speaking, you have elevated inflation, but we're cutting rates at the fastest place in two thousand and eight other than the twenty twenty over zero zero person rates of our night effectively.

Ah it's just weird. It's like you and we also have an economy that has maximum employment. The fed set up drone power little set himself. Even four point five percent unemployment is a maximum appointment by economic definition of under five percent. So it's like we're cutting as if we're in a recession or something. But the data doesn't suggest we are everyone saying we're on track for a soft landing and inflation isn't at two percent, right? And you can say that they're lagg indicate, but it's just core inflation has been stubborn, and I think we're going to see, uh, some more potential upside and inflation next year.

So because we got that fifty basis point rate um but inflation is not done to two percent, of course, is actually not down there. Actually core is fifty percent plus higher than their target and their cutting. Um why do you think they did fifty .

basis points? Let's say that's the mystery. I I I really think the fed looked at what happened. Okay, there's two camps obvious that the whole political camp, which are not necessarily in that camp that you know bite and selling him to cut raids fifty.

I think I really think Powell has tried to Operate as independently as possible as their political pressure. One hundred percent. Could they have been a part of this? One hundred percent. But I think the fed at a deeper level, they looked at everything that happens, ince, twenty, twenty, and they've always been late.

So when they cut rates in march twenty, twenty, they, I mean, I guess you gonna been early on that because no one really new what was happening, but they effectively to wear plane catch up for a year. And then once they started raising rates, you know, I went from inflation trained to ory to ten percent inflation, and then they're behind apple. So I think now they're saying, look, we the fed's greatest asset is not interest rates are or QE any that its credibility, right? The market moves on what the fed says.

And I think they looked at what happened over last few years and said, we don't want to lose our credibility, or whatever credibility of remaining. And the only thing that will really micus lose our credibility is moving late. Again, I argue differently. I think what would really make them these credibility ties inflation comes back yet again. And I do think it's gna come back and I guess we will see how that goes.

Do you think that um drone power still be around to deal with if inflation comes back? Or as you kind of send to himselve? Look, let me just give that to here.

With this close to a soft lending is possible. My reputation is people say, hey, he's the guy who you clap down on. The inflation got us back around two percent.

see later. I don't know. It's tough because he's also playing the political game. If he's going to be around and that so I think I I went even say his reputation is first thing necessarily I think he's genus. I in look, I completely acknowledge he's had an incredibly difficile job.

It's very hard to say if I was in history, I would have done something vasa different than him. In twenty twenty, for example, no one knew what was happening and people were going out wearing gloves and and put leaving the groceries in the ground for twenty minutes. It's four.

They came in, not the cover and wear off. So it's like IT was IT was unprecedented time. So I acknowledge that.

But I think um maybe maybe that is what he's thinking. He's thinking, you know what will live on a high now? Keep unemployment law stocks keep going up because we're pivoting, uh, but I don't think that is necessarily the primary driver.

So one of the things i've started to pay a lot of attention to um which is hilarious because I was not a very good student. My high school um is the way the beer of labor statistics calculates a lot of these different metrics and obvious ly inflation being the big one but jobs and and many others um and so you i've talked about before but like this idea that inflation is calculated by sending physical people into physical grocery stores with tablets and saying like make sure you go find the exact big beans with no sodium, no saw whatever uh and then physically input the number of the tablet and just do that over over and over again um that alone seems insane.

And hey, we should just have real time data points like there's online grocery source told the Prices but okay, fine, how we collect the data. The thing that seems to be maybe the most greece, in my opinion, is this whole idea of substitution. And so if something goes up too much in the basket of goods, there is like people stop you, that big beans, stead by corn, whatever.

Like how do you look at some of these new answers of, again, you know, each one we can go to a laugh about point to. But IT does feel like the overall way that day is collected. The methodology that use the calculation of inflation IT just seems like there's a lot left to be desired there.

hundred percent. And they goes back to what I was saying with certain categories, they have much higher inflation. Then then uh, the headline numbers and those categories have a much bigger impact. And then and then you also get the know on time that you get to people. I say, yeah, you know what the battle against inflation over you know headline inflation minus housing and auto and this and that it's like what's left like .

the inflation exactly.

It's kind of the same exact thing. It's like everyone has their own core, super core or everyone to call the inflation. But um look what your thing is exactly right.

And in the best indicator inflation is the sentiment of the general public. I think I mean just look at every every time you go to the grocery store or you turn on the T, V, it's on the news. There's something about someone talking about higher Prices or they can afford to pay their run or they can afford this, that that's the best indicator. I think the data can be golden, but if the people are struggling, I think that's what matters.

And ah the only thing that inflation is done is why and that wealth divide, the rich have gone in much richer, the poor much poor and everyone else in middle kind of had to gravitate towards one of the most some gravity towards the bottom of because that's just the way I was um and I really think that all started with the four trillion dollars of stimulus that was printed handed out. Um I remember going to like just my local model, for example, in twenty twenty one or twenty twenty late twenty twenty and people were just lined up outside the gucci store, the love town I am i'm talking like a line like like you're just pizza brought away like that long of a lion and like are something's got us I mean, someone's gotto pay for this here and like inflation is I I always say is the biggest involuntary tax and history. You're effectively handing out money that everyone feels like they got free money, but then they have to pay for IT now for the next twenty years, how long IT takes for wages to catch up to to inflation? And guess who's also paying for IT the federal government through that interest expense on federal debt, which is also skyscanner.

I have a story I never told publicly, but I was my like warning bell that we are in really bad trouble, which is cameras. The end of twenty twenty begin a twenty twenty one but my wife and I went to uh porter rio and um there was a friend that was down there we go uh had a meeting that I was going to and then we were spent a couple of days and um I remember we got on uh the plane and uh we arrive and when we got there there was a ton of people who are very confused and remember looking around my O O, okay, so they're not from porter eo devi was I never been here before, right?

This is like first time tourists, as I didn't think anything of IT whatever went about my day when go the hotel P2P said at a number different times there and the council made a comment about like the explosion of tse. wow. OK fine again. Didn't really think I think of IT um is like the first second night go out to a to dinner, go a restaurant.

We're walking around and I wanted to pack a gum, right? And I just want to pack so we go into like whatever was a cvs way, what whatever the story was and there was a line of people who are buying, you know, just basically cheap beer, cheap alcohol get. And I remember standing there and, uh, the guy next to me who had on a tone of fake designer close IT chain, my goal thing, and he asked the a cashier, do you take the E. B.

T cards? Oh my god.

And I remembers just like he was like, so like perplexing to me, right is like OK where import go, he's buying a much of stuff is all think, you know and jewelery whatever. Et, and so I married like just so like ground breaking to me of like holy shit that now whatever go back at night I like and I joke was like my personal short moment I was like shit.

And so um then I go down serious, you know, the morning and I ask the hotel people, oh god, I like a lot more people coming here like there's a tony people. And so what the very end of happening is the airlines we're offering like seventy dollar flights from places like that or or these major airports because just nobody was on the planet first, so they drop all the Prices. So now sun is dirt cheap.

The hotels had no torts, so they dropped the Prices. So now it's like, you may go to porter rio for a week and it's like, you know, a thousand box. So naturally, a ton of people who otherwise won't go, they're ready to go make complete sense and good for that.

So but how are they like? How are they spending money? Were doing everything and was a tonic stimulus checks like all the stuff.

And so coming back in that trip, I was just like, I actually probably unrestrained. I thought that would be much shorter impact. I, this is crazy, but let me crazy. I, how much can twelve hundred dollars what was at thirty days?

The world was free back a couple months, like I remember, I even hit to come to new york at one point for for work. Uh, I was flying in in out new york and he was a ninety box that he said for a fly I like.

And IT was like, free update to first class every time you, the whole world, first class still like like both sides of the plane like not even and then uh, even i've had to fill gas was ninety nine cents unlike I mean, this is great right now, but there is a no way we're not going to pay for this in the future course. And that's exactly when I started saying inflations not transitory to make up an investment or prediction in the market that complicated. Just look around you sometimes and that's that's like you said that you walked in that doing reader ever IT was and that's what like .

to collect the top indicator like those moments when I just literally and I was like like hit my wife on the leg like you like stupidity that is going on and of course is like what I don't know, she's like a livia wow boy. IT didn't last only thirty days or even ninety days like obviously inflation went over nine percent and we had huge issue when the areas where I think that we've really seen the show up is in home affordability where um you I think some of the numbers of my twenty sixteen, the U S. Medium home was like two thousand, eight thousand and twenty twenty four, four hundred and thirty thousand out of families.

Keep up. It's insane. If you look at we put us tweet about this recently, if you look at a home Price appreciation versus wage growth since twenty twenty, it's been double home Prices of doubled a wage growth.

So that's one thing itself to think about that hard for someone to be able by a home.

You actually more because all interested have almost tripled, right? So you actually have two factors you have, you know obviously the income that you have that you make, but also how expensive visit to finance the house. And then they went from the two point five percent rate to seven to eight percent rate.

And so basically the Price of the agree money that you need went up, and the cost of the money you need to borrow goes actually and your wages don't nearly keep up and so may be three.

four more years turns one up and your mainers went up and your your cutting your grass when everything went up. So now um I think that every home owners for the first time paying almost three thousand, sorry, home buyers in almost three thousand per months. To buy the median Price home in the U S.

Just between mortgage and tax and insurance. Um do the math on that. You you know thear about thirty six thousand dollars a year.

What what's the median income? Eighty thousand for household. So on a post tax basis, you're paying over fifty percent of your income just on a home payment.

What about, you know, you have two, three kids. You have cars. You have, you gotta feed your family.

You, I mean, is at this point, it's like homeownership is ultimate luxury. It's no longer of part of the court court american dream. Even renting too.

By the way, people are paying over two thousand months and rent on average. So um home affordability is is a possible right now. And and really what's causing the is, well, number one, obviously inputs went up number and everything that that that takes to build the um home.

But what about you know there's so many imports have gone into IT， but I think one of the biggest is existing home sales are at two thousand ten levels right now because you have and deciding the individuals because you do have a lot of individuals that have a two point five percent mortgage rate and they don't want to move because you can't transfer a mortgage and you have to get a new mortgage and have to pay percent, that's one thing. But also, we have so much investment activity that happened in the in the residential sector, especially I mean, investors were buying single family homes like he was Candy back in twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two when rate were law because your career was so high. I think about IT your cat, you're finance there was a point when uh, murder rates were like a third of C P.

I inflation. I mean, IT was like almost army tries to take alone. You're borrowing money at two percent but it's appreciating a nine. It's like it's free money, right um so that kind of LED to since the for the first sentence of five, now existing home Prices actually higher than new home places. Like that's the definition of broken.

Think about think about you go to buy a new phone or something and like the use one is actually more than new one. That just doesn't 给你 sense that how we are in the housing market right now。 Uh, and it's it's hard to see like it's we're not in a two thousand and eight situation.

It's hard to see like a major crash happen. I mean, the question of all the time is what's is going to take for lower Prices and how in the home, home, home market, well, you need some sort of external event that forces supply into the market because it's not a demand is demand is at a one hundred and ninety five levels right now. Mortgage demand, I mean, no one's buying call your local mortgage banker or your local rest.

And I guarantee you'll tell you I even closing a deal. Uh, the promise, even if they one deal and there's only you know if they do does and there's one house for sale, then is still very competitive at their one house. And um we need supply to return for lower Prices that either going to take a Spike and unemployment to cause for closures or some sort of external event that russia supplies to the market. I'm not really seeing that happen right now, especially with red cuts on the way.

So I saw a data point that said is a new all time high. Forty two percent of americans have no mortgage on their home. And I thought ww were so specially responsible. Look at how great we've all Better in paying all this off.

And then um as the international is great doing something that no, it's because the bombers have been in their homes from one thirty years and so have just been paying IT off. And now finally a huge portion of the population has paid off their more things. And so uh that number going up is really just an aging population more than anything else, hundred percent.

And and not only is that the aging population is paid off, the Younger population not buying because they can't afford IT. So it's happening on both ends, the spectrum. Um and i'm and let me like you said, that's IT sounds like at first first say that sounds like the best possible thing you know everyone owns at home.

It's aggressive Greening and we're good to go, but that's really not what IT is. I think it's a tough time to be millennial, right? I mean, multiple are even even trying to find jobs.

Now I was becoming difficult at the labor market weakening. Um it's a tough time. Affordability is is bad all around. The board is right now and it's not improving.

And how much of the affordability is the inflation and the devaluation of the currency, combined with the fact that millennia ls are all trying to save rather than invest. Like like one of the things I always say him earlier, that inflation made the rich, Richard, that because there are some evil billionaire that you are sit behind some clotho doors, something in there like here's the way we're going to get rich.

They just have investments and the investments to go up win an inflating ary environment. People who hold cash go down. And so IT does feel like um maybe more so than other generations, they were told safe, save your way to financial security but actually .

should be investing in exactly you don't have to be that rich necessary to hedging if you just own a house. If you own the home ten years ago, twenty years ago, that house is hedging against inflation because you can always if you want to move, you can sell that house and buying other house. And they both theoretically appreciated when you don't have any hard assets other than cash in your bank account.

And even then, that's kind of question all these days for most a lot of people uh you you're being left behind an enviro like this and that's exactly what's happening. Um and and also even look in the market, right? Like the stock market has seen incredible appreciation.

We're talking about S M P. That's during six thousand. I was lying at some clips of me, you just like cmc or whatever a couple years ago and I was like mp thirty two hundred. And like, I thought there was like two thousand ten or something, but I was like two years ago, two years ago, and not even that longer.

So um and like you said, it's the rich people that are invest in these asset, not the people that are trying to you know build their life and have reason entered the workforce. It's it's tough. I don't really even know what the solution is because you're entering a situation where you're behind um and and also there's been talk of new home buyer credits and you know mortgages are being subsidized by the government to mine all that stuff is effectively a form of stimulus, right?

There's no such thing as free loans you can hand out free money. You can hand out zero percent loans and expect known to pay for someone pays for everything. And like the way to fight inflation .

is not necessarily more inflation. It's like the I see these programs. So I K, we want to help first .

time home buyer yo the cost is always passed. Now it's never just someone says, yeah I they go to my heart, i'm giving you this money and this I can have an impact.

So um you and your team have been very bullish on stocks throughout uh, this year. Um you have been calling for M P six thousand um and you have largely bent right how much of that is just like hired inflation go up first like an analyzing earnings or special companies in S M P like I can walk us through your theses, you on the first thing.

So our our investment strategy that try to know provide for our clients and and our people that read our work is to always kind of get ahead of the trend through two key variables. One is the fundamental side things and two is the technical side things. When we when I first started the coastal that I was around ten years ago, technical analysis was viewed as like some witchcraft.

Like if you putting lines on the tar, I was like, what are you doing strategy for exactly? But then I realized that market volume became increasingly automated. Actually, more than half of all trades in the market today are based by an algorithm and a lot of algorithms.

We're trading off these technical levels. So in a way, technical analysis, it's like its power numbers, right? More people that follow a certain level, the more strength that level will have. So one thing that we were noticed going into twenty twenty four was we were in a textbook to technical up trans, starting from the october twenty seven I believe in twenty twenty three in the market bottom and um everyone was calling for you out to dead cat bounce you are going as and he was going to two dollars whatever you name IT was going to IT uh but I said, you know what, i'd like this technical set up.

And I think if you get ahead of a trend right now in a market that has a lot of money on the sidelines, lot of people looking for bargains and especially type, the tech sector was down massive. I, me and video was down like seventy percent at that time. Think you just think about that for second.

And meta was trained like eighty dollars make them. I was like, these stocks are bargains. I mean, at some point, there's too much AR.

There's too much fear in the markets. There was one too. There was this whole notion that we're gone to election year and it's i've been i've lita been screaming this on twitter.

And every show I go on election years are good for the stock market. People don't realize this. I so there was something that we did a lot of research going to twenty twenty three.

If you look at the last twenty three election years, saying back to one thousand, twenty um eighty three percent of those election years ended with a positive return. SMP1 hundred。 That's incredible of if you think if you only invested in election years for the last hundred years, you are doing great.

I mean, you not necessarily all perform the benchmark, but you're you're doing fantastic. Um and and then there is a home area of of well, if trump wins, then it's going to be great if if the democrats win, whoever IT was by in common at the time, then uh it's gonna crash. So it's going to crash.

Well, if you look at the data um actually in both cases, the market is higher on average in the case republican wins around fifteen percent average annual turn in the case that the democrats went is around ten. But either way, I think that's pretty good. And then the on the fundamental side of things, I knew that the fed pivot euphoria.

So I think the point when I realized that this fed pivot thing was going to just keep driving stocks higher. IT was december twenty, twenty three. And IT was the strangest thing.

Jeroboam like, completely change his tone. IT was like two weeks to four. He said, we're not even talking about rate cuts and nothing like IT was assumed article. And then little two weeks later, he's like, uh, yeah we're looking at least three records maybe more maybe in staying in january. At one point there was eight right cuts Priced IT was like wild and I said, yeah, when the market is this you for about uh, the fed cutting interest rates, we're going to .

get barred well, because people aren't going to wait from the cut and then no cut.

That's exactly the same thing is happening right now. So and then there at the same time, you had every headline in the world, every headwind the world, sorry, that could have brought talks lower from wars. People say earrings were going to decline to a, you know, national us, every you name IT IT was there.

But nothing was was impact on the market. So we saw, uh, we made the faces that risk appetite right now. I think risk appetite right now is just about as strong as ever been in in modern U.

S. History and for the market. And that's something that's not worth fighting.

You have higher highlighted lows, strike technical up. You have a market that's little looking for any reason to rally. We are up forty percent over last twelve ths. If you look at I know i'm just like spewing data here, but that's how I kind of think.

If you look at every annual gain from you know like annualized on a fiscal year basis ah, the last time we had a forty percent year was in the one thousand and fifteen one thousand fifty four. I think I was. We don't have a forty percent year that said, we have four percent.

lt. M, that's insane like that when you have that kind of a oria. A obviously people gonna .

call .

IT a bubble.

but at the same time you people don't real. There are two things that I think have structurally changed in the stock market um which people who want to sound smart don't like where rely note the first is a the historical valuations of stocks did not take into account the need foregone investors to go in bytes cks as an absolutely so there are some sort of monetary y premium assign to stocks today I don't love is one percent or ten percent.

But there is some percent of you're going have higher evaluations because you don't just have people in based evaluation. You are some people who just say I need to get out dollars. I've got to go into these assets and and actually get that left.

The second thing that just blew my mind was I was point the P E ratio, the p ratio double, my god. So I um the business is a more profitable. absolutely. The efficiency of the business .

has doubled as well. This .

is cheaper.

It's it's that's like it's it's crazy that people miss this, but it's it's in videos, earnings, the E, P, S and income, even revenue, every every metric they have has actually outpace appreciation of the stock Price. So the multiples have actually gone down or stay pretty flat. Um I think ford p like thirty five and thirties at this point.

And I was higher I think IT .

was higher when the stock was like you prety split and like two hundred dollars. So and then you talk about people saying, oh, a cisco or entire of the nineties and two thousand bubble. I mean, couldn't be a bubbly.

Yeah absolutely. I'm never going to say there's no chance to take that up five hundred thousand percent over whatever one of time is not could be, bob, but at the same time is not the same situation. It's it's a different time.

And I think um it's the A I trend is also a real thing where the whether people want to believe in, in that. I mean, that's where investment is going, that's where capex is going. Um and going back to your point about U S stacks to not all isn't an inflation hedge, but it's actually become a safe haven trade globally speaking.

So you've seen like ah this is something we we put out a lot on twitter to is you've seen a lot of uh global record inflows into U S. Stocks over last year or so. And it's not even necessarily because everyone so excited about U S dox there.

There are a lot less excited about everything else. I mean, look at china. China alone is they have five, six quarters of deflation.

In our first time in the nineties of that happened. Europe s had a lot of volatile, especially the war in ukraine going on has disrupted a lot of supply chains. There prompted much hier inflation in the U.

S. For appeared to time um and I think U S. Stocks have become effectively a safe haven trade along with gold, which I think which I said is now the new global safe and trade. But stacks have become inflation heads safe having trade, risky trade, tech trade and everything else in between. All and one, I like the complete package and and that's how markets are viewing IT.

And also, if you look at think about IT from institutional side of things, if you are a fun manager or you or you're wealth manager or anything that's really public side related, you can't afford to this really when the market goes at forty percent months, right? So those people are saying i'm just going to keep writing in the trend to i'm going to keep in reinforcement to the market reinvesting my dividend and when the trend shifts, then we'll get barish. And that's exactly what our view has been. And I do think we see six thousand by year and um and sticking by that call.

So the other thing is, uh, are you playing for the short term? Are you playing for the long term, right? If you said to me um will stocks be higher in twenty years? Yeah, there's literally not a single thing you're going to tell me as of right now based on all the data that i've seen that going to convince me that there's this still surprised in dollars. We're going on high.

If you if you tell me stocks are lower in twenty years, U. S. Stocks and you're basically saying that the us. Will have collapsed in twenty years, that's what you're calling for. And and in every other situation, stocks should be higher and I .

would even work you even if the us collapse could be hired because like Venus in stock market because ya inflation inflates for the stark Prices. Now can you get out much? right? But the reason I use twenty years is, is such an aggregate amount of time and in most of mind that, uh, stuck are going hard. That is the trend that has been the trend for one hundred years is going to be the td for the next hundred years.

Uh, what I think a lot of people start to think to themselves is like, what about next month or next year? And my positions always if you think long term or you're the best, the long term of Younger especially, who cares is cheaper, right? Like don't sell to then hope that there's some drop instead, just go find more cash to .

put the what I would say is if you if you have time in the market, you want bare markets because you get bargains. Like imagine you can go by in video and now for fifty dollars a share and then h, that's great. Hold IT for five years.

We'll be back to two hundred or whatever. Uh, long term, investors should have warned pullback x and they should capitas on them. Uh, short term, investors should obviously be more condition of what's what's happening.

And I think as you're saying, if you're long tomorrow, don't even be don't even take your account every every day, right? Maybe take you every month to C, C, O is doing. But you know it's a monk, time oriented. The us.

Is if you scroll out on the chart that you have, I were in an internal ball market, even if you bought at the top before two thousand and eight the worst recession in other the great depression, you're still up hundreds of percent in S M. P. Hundred alone since that time.

You mention that gold is the global safe having trade. Explain how how you just think about that.

So this is out. We got ahead of this school. The rally over the last few months kind of just started. Think well, this is interesting. You have a market where goal doesn't necessarily perform that well as it's been, but it's been incredibly hot.

And not only that over the last two months or month and half bonds have crashed the tiny or no yields at four point three percent. And gold is still at now at two hundred, pushing even higher. People are calling for three thousand.

We could definitely see IT. Ah it's interesting you have this massive divergence between golden bounds so far. If you ask any person, let's spin the market for less twenty years or thirty years.

IT was always yeah in times one certainty. People buy gold. They buy bands that's IT simple and maybe utilities.

And now no one wants to buy bands because they don't know what the friends going to do. They for all we know, we could have great hikes coming back. And me, we had fifty basis point rate cuts Priced a month ago.

Now there's the the odds of no cuts are being Priced. It's like no one wants exposure to that kind of volatility. So there are showing bans and then you have geopolitical tensions everywhere.

You have inflation, um you have uh, a lot of uncertainty and then you have central banks buying thousands of tons of physical gold while calling for soft landing. So it's like this this whole storm, it's like everybody is talking up on gold, including the banks themselves say we're not going to recession and it's rising with every reason to fall. Even the U.

S dollar, by the way, the U. S. dollar. And next the dxy is up like five percent over the last two months or sel and gold is still rising.

It's insane if you put a chart with gold bonds and uh and in the dollar, it's like gold is said, you know, I have a good day. I got my own path like it's crazy. So that is clear that people are flowing into gold and investment continues to flow into their regardless of what's happening. And it's is really is the safe and trade. And I think there's just so much demand for the for the shiny metal that at this point.

it's do you think, a psychological change like people of psychologically said, hey, bones are not safe anywhere. I need gold.

I really IT could be. And I also think with rates, you know, now that they even did a fifty basis point right out, now you're getting fifty six points less on treasury bands and jury bills of of even high yellow savings accounts are paying less. So now that gap between gold, that's a zero yielding asset.

And on this obviously yelling. Is narrow ing. So that's even preferred IT a little bit more. And I do think IT is people are saying, you know what, let's stick to the basic right now.

Let's get back into the things that are have more certainty y and are less correlated with the government, less correlated with, you know, you once because the currency more as a global currency and gold, the tablet list, what also tablet list, bitcoin, golden big coin are not substitutes. They can both rise together. And we've been that happen.

Do you look at IT as they're going to directionally trade together gold.

bitcoin? I think so I think they're I think, uh, bitcoin, different difference ers from gold a little bit and that IT is more correctly to risk appetite? Or is gold is little and more inversely correlated? And then we've seen biton actually perform well in a market where where the S P S.

Rising, where risky as is, are rising a lot of IT because because in is a risky asset. But I also think that you're compensated for that risk. I mean, look at the returns in backwards compatible.

It's not even does IT make a that in the car if you if you put them together. Um but at the same time, they both have that aspect of being sheltered from government shelter from one place of a currency. They're inflationary hedges. They are finally, in a way, I guess um the interesting is interesting is gold has a market that's twenty at a bitcoin like bitcoin is so big but so small at the same is that time right now?

And uh, do you think those converts .

the to be absolutely gap close? And I think most is you always look at something that's up like fifty thousand percent or whatever that is, and say, oh yeah, it's huge now I can get in. But then you look at when he goes up another twenty thousand percent and you say he was actually small back down, but now it's huge and they goes up again.

So huge and small as is relative. And I think gold um when you look at assets that are shielded against inflation in governments and centralization, uh bitcoins actually stop party small, which is which is funny and we've been calling for a hundred k bitcoin will publicly a million bitcoin at one at some point in my life um especially with inflation. So I I I really do think both assets can write someone timeously.

So when I first start looking at bitcoin goal, I think I had two different things and done. One was goldin. Bitcoin would, uh, have this flipped ing gold market capital expand over, um sorry, a bitcoin s mark capital expand over a gold.

My thought process was good, would be demonized. So you see that market cap shrink, uh, bitcoins will continue to expand and you'd get some cross. I think at the time, gold was like ten 1 uh， trillion dollars and the king was like six hundred million, hundred billion.

And now the data basic, I can keep going up, just be faster, right? And so they probably do cross at some point, but you may take longer to be at a much higher level. And so gold investors to do just as well as I think they thought that they're going going to do. But the second thing that I find very interesting is that, uh, there seems to be a uh a demographic difference in terms of, uh, most Young people I talk to, they don't own golden right big most the other guys that I talk to, they own a lot of gold and they are shorting to dip their toe with the big coin. But the institutions are all run by older guys, right?

IT feels like that .

changes over the next twenty thirty years, right? And so um how do you look at the relationship between these two asset, you know ten, fifty, twenty years from now, do you think people still try to hold both? Or is their capital that would go into gold historically .

but will get fit is time I go I go on Charles paint on fox. I'm like the only person there that's like that's Young and blush a goal and he's always like a gest uh but I think it's interesting. Um definitely institutional investors are probably retails a lot less likely to go by gold like some guy buying bitcoin in his Robin hood account or whatever.

Is gonna more prone to buying a risk Y S clipped or theory or you name IT, then just going to buy a small gold etf at the same time? I think that that that can change like you satisfied as the Young people start getting into the institutional side things. And also no.

And that living this changing is regulation. I think we've like five years ago, everything was pointed wards, the government striking down bitcoin. Now it's actually become a part of the campaign. You know, cantes are speaking at bitcoin conferences and and and criticizing, you know, people who are who are not expected accepting the technology and the change of the springing. So I think attitude and generally speaking, is changing.

And I even think the other investors are sorry to t and what would rise an institution on investing more than anything IT doesn't matter if its purple Green gold you name IT is returns. If he if something has good returns as a money manager, you can ignore IT. That's the reality. Um and I think like you said, I mean gold itself is not onna be some crazy performing asset that makes thousands of percent every five years in my view. Its might not even performed as me. I honored that I think you will keep your rising, but I think bitcoin is going to significantly outperform gold and IT has and IT will continue do so, especially as we break out higher and more capital flows into IT and then times and if we going to more economic uncertainty times with maybe more global inflation, that is even Better for bitcoin.

And do you think that eventually central banks hold on? You mentioned that they're really buying gold aggressively right now. Do you think that kind of eventually.

I think that works so far away from that though. I mean, that would be like the ultimate, the ultimate that's the strategic decline reserved too. Like those kind of things are, uh, they would be great to see. But I still think we need we have something.

Is that how we get the the point Price?

I think that would be a big factor. I think also, uh just generally speaking, I mean millions of bitcoin let to see you time by U. S. D, too.

right? It's bitcoin to USD will naturally keep even if IT coin never went up, IT will naturally keep rising just because the USD is gonna keep falling a dollar from one hundred years ago worth like what ten, five cents or something. So um just that alone will keep pushing things higher. But I think it's gonna from both ends. The spectrum, we're going to see higher demand, higher Prices, not just because of inflation, but because more people want on.

嗯， now we mentioned bonds earlier. One of the things that I keeps saying is that people buying bonds is basically a sign of didn't do the work, they're just on autopilot or they are dumb um because, uh, it's very clear that if you think higher inflation environment, if you wash the dollar being devalued bonder absolutely destroyed. And my favorite to point people to just go at the ty yeah like thirty forty percent last five years.

Yes, right. And so. Is the sixty forty portfolio now completely obliterated? Or how should people think about, you know, some sort of bond here, especially in a bear market where we all stocks and bonds go down together? Yes, right. I think kind of broke a lot of the models with the brains of people.

I think there's been a lot of opportunity to trade bds tl in particular. We've been trading at both direction because you have seen some large swings like ten twenty percent to invoke directions, which for band is pretty big A I the sixty forty thing, it's almost like bands are you're not even really buying to to make a return.

You just buying IT because you want a security like you want to know that you can have your money and you're at least going to hopefully be protected against inflation. Um and everything is too in the market like we have now. Money amErica funds are paying four point five to five percent. Those also become a subsidy for bonds in a way because they are way more like they're more it's a lot it's basic cash in your account.

So I think that this point rate is like, if those exist, why would somebody goodyer ye so yeah.

and I think it's a very distinctive way of thinking, especially you tell me the average person that has a four one k right? You start. And eighty twenty bds sucks a bands and then you go go more towards fifty fifty years in retirement and seven thirty this is that um I don't know everything is dead.

I think because a lot of people will prioritize security over returns. Just you know if if you're institutional speaking, are managing a fund, you think differently than someone that is has worked for forty years and then they are on to resign and they want to preserve capital. So I think that's where the demand for um is IT something that I think Young people should be investing in probably that over a long, a long term.

I mean, we just talked about how sex should be higher twenty years from now. Just put your money in index funded that point. And if you don't want a ten deer investments, and I definite think .

you will perform much Better hearing you say this, basically I take away is that non economic actors are buying bonds.

exactly.

This is a crazy like the entire financial world is built on this concept, that you have to be a non economic actor to buy an asset. But still, there's a lot on economic actors because there optimizing for something else, which again, find no judgment is right for them, know there are risk appetite, whatever, but like essentially the entire assets being propped up by people who are not actually buying IT for the reason that eventually was.

Just know what the textbook example of this is, is dave rampy like his audience and nothing against him, like I am sure he does. He does great stuff. He's helps a lot of people.

But I think I saw a clip of him like someone said, if I give you a billion dollars for free right now, as alone would you take IT? He's like, absolutely not. And then they like, he just put in like treasury bills and make five percent year signal.

No, that nothing. And like it's that mindset and that even if you have an arbitration PPT unity in the the hype constitution to avoid that for piece of mine and for security is more valuable than making a few extra percentage points for some people. And that's I think that's where bonds are kind of following to play here.

Yeah that that makes sense. Um if we go we look at stocks, there's obviously divers between the S M P nzd c and then we can put a bucket of everything else uh the nasdaq has been exploding in in value that was up fifty percent last year, you remember correctly. Um and what I find very interesting is both nazi and the tech sector of the S M P.

Five hundred they have both returned them were between called twenty to fifty percent over the last you know year or two. Um that is Better than almost all private illiquid venture capital funds. The top I of five percent, whatever they're to, can do a great job. But if you can get thirty, forty, fifty percent in public markets with liquidity, uh, there's a much harder argument for people to go and invest in alternatives. And so what are you all seeing there in terms of public patience to tech version.

maybe private? yeah. Well, I mean, the has given even private equity firms are run on their money for the twenty percent I R golden rule.

You make the money in five years in P E. And you have your fund is doing great. Now you're dummling your money in two years.

In the next day. Can you do you know to do anything? Bine etf and don't pay any money.

He is either. Uh but I also think that, that comes with elevated levels risk. Obviously in the mazza, even the S P.

Five hundred has become incredibly concentrated in a few names. The top in ten percent of the S M P reflects thirty, forty percent of index now. So those stocks are doing great. And I think as long as those stock keep doing great next to great, but there's also the flip side of that, that you're you're definite on higher risk of those onto a correction, like you look at what happened on August faith, for example, with the whole japanese and Carry what everyone to call a Carry trade tobacco, which we actually bought, by the way, I bought in our research.

We posted a report for our saying we're buying today on August faith because the end trade wasn't over and it's still not over and we can get into that if you want. But ah there was a good example of how market concentration right now is kind of a dangerous levels and that safely argument a lot of bears will take because the minute that you start seeing the AI transfer or you start seeing earnings growth start to slow and in video, in apple and microsoft and meta, you name IT, then the markets going to stop returning what is returning. So that's that's how you can kind of look at that. I just don't think that it's a smart decision to try and time the top on something like that because if you've tried to do that any point at last twelve months, not only have you lost but you missed on a generational run and they run, I think will continue.

As I said now you say that the end trade is not over. Very thing people said he, this Carry trade blew up. I hurt my stock portfolio. You know, after guys, we were doing this um why do you over .

so you know that day was very interesting because a lot of the selling I think wasn't retell driven and IT IT came um like we posted and no on twitter saying an x like you point and x saying what is a Carry rata was just a thread and I think that thread got ten million, five million views or something crazy because no one even knew was happen.

They are just selling because they saw the headlines and what happened was, yeah the banker japan, they raise rates to slide above zero percent. The other negative territory for the first time in a long time and effectively what the Carry trade was for anyone isn't no um you could you know you could capsize on the difference between interest rates and japan and ever else. So like while the japan was cutting rates or they had negative rates, we had five point five per but funds rate and there is a huge gap.

Well now yeah, the Carry trade has scale back as we cut rates and they raise rates, but they're still a huge difference between their court there twenty five business point rate in our even if IT goes down to four percent for funds rate or three, one, five percent finds that the care trade is still happening. So what my thesis was is this is just pure panic. The Carry trade is scale back, but it's definitely not gone. And I only like a handful of people, kind acts of you and um the s one hundred rebounded ten percent in a matter of days is in IT was the most free trade ever, I mean almost felt arbiters but IT wasn't because obviously there's no such thing as arbitration, a efficient market. But um it's not over and I think people realize that quickly and it's no longer something that I think will really can aliza big drop in stocks unless we have a major shift and interest policy.

You mention efficient market leaving the market efficient.

I think IT is I I think IT is it's more efficient than ever been. Is there times when there are efficiencies unlike a microsecond basis when these point funds, for example, are trying bit ask reads and yeah maybe a little bit um I think the market is efficient in that whatever data we have, right as it's released, is being Priced in as accurately and as quickly as ever before, especially because of the first thing I said in that sixty percent of market volumes automated. But that doesn't mean that efficient markets also don't mean that there isn't room to make money and that the way that markets Operating something in is the way it's going to pan out in the future because there's new information every single day and the variables in aid, the new information are changing every old day. So there's a lot of different variables, but I think they're efficient in the sense that when news comes out or when some a new development happens, IT is Price in instantly these days and there's not really arbitrage on that anymore.

A place, whether is no efficiency whatsoever, is the job numbers. Um we have seen a massive revisions, eight hundred thousand vision. Um we've got the most recent number of they created twelve thousand jobs in october on on the side, we had negative job to revise IT down.

Um why are they so bad accounting? I think what people want understand like OK, you call this number and is really actually people would not know this. There's two revisions. So you get you get first revision of vision.

Um they have wait at least a million jobs over the last top month of and now it's the point where when they come out the number anyone whose sophistic ted is like lie like not through, right? It's gonna lower. Yeah is that just the new Normal or .

you know what is interesting is, first, all I saying we should just look at the jobs and one one flag, maybe now two month flag, because they are revising twice every single time. Now even August was just revise lower. September was revised lower.

Eight of the last seven reports were revised lower with money in those advice twice. It's it's it's an ultimate credibility lost in terms of the way the market looks at IT. And I feel like the market isn't even trading on the headline number anymore.

They're most looking at their revisions more. They're trading on A I even know they're trading on the jobs report day anymore now because basically, we go up and where does what happens? Um it's I don't know if I something something needs to be investigated or something, but when you talk about I mean, I understand if there's a few thousand jobs here and there that are revised on the occasion by time about millions of jobs.

That's insanity. And then you also have I mean, you also have the whole debate of is, is the way that numbers are being portrayed even accurate in the sense that you have record numbers of people working part time jobs, but you also have maximum employment and low unemployment because maybe because people are looking for debt, because they are working three part time jobs. And it's like, I don't know, it's the labor market own beast with so many different things to break down.

But I think everyone can agree, including the fed. Deep down, I really think they do agree with this, even though they say we have maximum imployment. The way the headline numbers are portrayer now is not reality.

That is one hundred percent fact. People are working muslim jobs. Wages have not cut up with inflation.

Finding a job is harder than I was since all the pendered basically. And uh, people are just not generally not optimistic about the economy. And I think this seems out from the labor market. So that's probably why they started cutting my fifty basis points because you down, they know the labor mark isn't as strong .

as the data suggest. One of the um things I think I could be OK with is to your point, hey um we thought there was four hundred thousand jobs created, actually was three hundred ninety five thousand. We'd like to be right the first time but within some band of kind margin of air, a understandable and also like three, ninety five and four hundred thousand or prime the same thing again.

Yeah, there's difference, but not really in terms of what people trying to know. Use the data point. We created jobs versus we lost jobs like this is zero one way bigger problem? And a IT seems like terrors now.

right? Other thing is the IT wasn't painted a lot about the hrk anes and all that. But it's once like, I mean, now everyone is saying, I said in hurricanes th data, I really matter what happened, even if I was negura ane hick I mean, it's like at some point I get there is a hurry ane I get there a buna bunch of variables every single month but you're just.

I don't know, did the hurting .

hit the whole country actually had B S. harder?

Yeah I know but that is kind of like this.

Um uh it's like a black box, right? Of these points obviously don't make a lot of your point about the loss of credibility I think is is a really important and um this a guy on twitter who actually very smart but he is a habit of whenever I tweet I tweet and I said no um if I was a betting man, definite we're going to get the negative job revision and this not be positive and he was like, you know a uh silly tweet or something right and another tweet I had was something about like basically we've lost credibility and his his point was, uh, look at all of the revisions for decades. They've been doing this for a long time.

And my point back, tom, was not. The revisions are actually not. The problem is the fact that everyone knows about their visions. Now, yes.

so IT was .

for a long twitter, right? Maybe there are some really high finance, smart people, whatever they are looking at the data, for the most part, people just read articles. And so the number came out then as the number, whatever, move on now, people like you, like me, like you know, named the twenty thousand people on twitter on about this stuff, or who I hey all on the second year.

Did you know that they are revising the numbers? And so it's like the cats, the and the loss of credibility doesn't come from the fact of what doing I M from the t and everyone knows and IT feels like along all of these data points in economics, you're just seeing happened over, over and over again. And so like in a true flag and they're building an alternative inflation measured.

I spent a lot of time to talk to to them and turn to understand what you're doing. And they're I guess so we just use like real time data, know we just like hook into uh oh you want to know housing like we just hit zillow and redfin in an apartment in that come and all things and we don't look at what they're listed for. We look at like was closed Price changes of homes for sale or .

for rents in the problem. Getting crazy instead .

of can call people and say, what do you think you could range your house for? And so he does feel like where, at this kind of intersection of this, about a new era in economic data, really hard to rip IT out and use.

The news in the markets like the just x alone has changed access information. I mean, these kind of things that be you'd have to get through equity research or you have to pay golden sex a million dollar as every year to get. It's like you can just go on twitter right now and read on your feet, my feet in one's feed about what's happening real time much faster than anyone can get to IT.

And with with most of the people having very stunning accuracy will say there is some stuff that's not very accurate, but we have community notes for that reason. But yeah, I think you're right. Awareness is just growing all around the board. And with anything market related.

it's like about the banks. Obviously, we saw, I think, three of the five largest uh, banking failures over last year, two years or so. And I think there's a lot of people who are very worried. A blog shine of osten had the famous you know because what a million dollars, a Better million box on IT um that didn't happen. But I think his point around like the bank's unrealized loss that brought lot of attention to IT.

Um if you going to look at the charts, IT looks real bad, right the only realize losses of his bank banshees working history uh and you would think basically their responses no where is going home to maturity, everything will be fine. Stop worrying. Where do you come out on kind of the solvency or or the structure of the making system?

You know tell S V B that no one is none is going to sell that the securities and they're to hold the maturity because that's what they thought too, until that run on their banks started and they had to sell these securities overnight for penis on the dollar.

So I think a lot of banks, uh, a bunch of bonds, treasury bonds, you name IT and these these securities background, tes were low, thinking that we're going to stay in a low rate environment for a long time because inflation is transitory according to the fed, and that's not what happened. And now we have five, six hundred billion, maybe more of unrealized losses on being spelling cheese, which by the way, a lot of those are on small banks, regional banks that also holds seventy percent of commercial real state debt. With these commercial real state, if you look at commercial real stay, I mean, honest IT gives two thousand and eight run for its money.

That's how bad it's been for office buildings. For example, there's office buildings down the street from us here in manhattan are basically given away for free just because people want someone to take the bank now off their hands because they can generate any revenue. They can't rental these properties.

They work from home is grown. So the year of the small banks are uh, burdened by these these key theories that they had these unrealized loss on the and then you have the commercial, the the regional bank crisis that I ended but a dinner, no one really knows what what's going out with them. The stock Prices really haven't been doing that well.

They're still kind of like at regional bank crisis levels. So I think yeah, we're golden if nothing happens but that's a big if says quote remains that is the way is all these mature, these seure, these secure mature then I think, yeah, you're good. That's a big f. So i'm not here calling for her being collapsed, but I also not here saying that we're .

in a perfect world. Do you think the banks could do anything to change the situation of we've got all these different programs can pull ital they talk and hate OK everything's good. Or you know the famous S V B coral, the customers on a call and said, I don't worry, like i'm worry, right?

Like what do you think the best the working your bank can do is I call you in middle crisis because you like way why they call me now. But uh I I it's tough to say they can do anything because someone has to take on that briton. And um you had the big term funding program, which was the fed for response to the region bank crisis.

IT definitely helped was IT was IT like a bell out kind of disguise in a way. Yeah, I mean, no one want to say the word belt. If you said the word balon twenty, twenty two.

I mean, you're unfollowed hated on blocked at me. And because it's like P, T, S, D, from two thousand and eight, you can have a below. No way where tech payers going to pay for that. But yeah, when you also lending money to banks, uh, free, very free rate, someone's paying for IT, right? So uh, now that expire, that definitely exposed them more risk.

But I think the F, D, I, C and the fed have made a clear that they kind of are the backstop for these banks, take risks that are you know, they take a risk when they are these these securities that now have unrealized losses. They're effectively hedging and set at rest the fed and F, I, C, which is a dangerous precedent to send. And um also look at their response.

This is other thing. So when you saw the first being collapsed, IT was kind of like a we're going to bail out in a way that not to bail out and everyone is going to made whole. And then hopefully, you know, they can just continue you going on.

And no, no transform of acquisition really is happen. You just kind of have to get the fire under control and then the next thing collapse happens. And then the feed the fcc says, well, this time we're not.

I'm going to step in until they really do collapse but then the next one happened, they said, well, when they do collapse and then work kind of just going to let J. P. Morgan by them.

And now all the big banks say, wait, i'm gna buy out any fAiling bank. I'm just onna way they fail, get all the assets for pennies on the dollar like first republic or. Whatever you know, bank.

thank you. What s next?

And this is like the bet, like Jamie diamonds, having a field day with these bank collapses, because not only does everyone move their money to the large banks during the crisis, he also buys out these small banks for basically free. Actually, I think they're getting paid for some of them almost because are going subsidies.

So now you, the president, that yep, small banks take all the rescue on in the case that you fell, yeah, we'll probably just find some sort of way to back stop you. And then, Jimmy, I will just come by, guys anyways. And then all the executive, you truly want to be investigated, you go to go. That's very dangerous presence.

Think, very dangerous. I also think that whatever you have fear dominating a mark, you get like really wacky ideas. There was a guy who I I want name um who said to me, he goes, I can predict next bank that's gona fail and I said how he goes they all start with litter s and so he said, you know so ver gate S B B signature and they would first political down his my my theories is think in the gated but I do think that like, you know, in these moments, it's kind of like, why is this happening?

There is very, you know kind of obvious subjective things you look at like the razed losses, the bank runs. But then there is this kind of overlay of regulatory slash. Political signature bank, I think, is a good example, born ny Franks.

And the body comes out. He's like, do they basically took this bank out back, shot IT? And like, there is no reason we were solved when they. And so I think that again, create someone certainty investors to try to navigate when you're like, hey, I can't just like look the baLance sheet. I can't look at you know space and determine whether is good or bad because there's this like qualities thing that is going to play into IT, which is nearly impossible to believe.

I and also we talk about x elite. The one thing that will say x has proliferated is the rise of spirit conspiracy theory. Man, I mean, you name IT signature bank and all these there was a fairy there for everything.

So, uh, yeah, it's no longer just look at the beach. There is a bunch of theories, is a bunch of different variables. Crypto is even take them playing into that. Um it's interesting. It's a crazy time to be an investor.

Another about SHE everyone talking about warm buffer, he said three hundred twenty five hundred thousand of cash at um he's been selling apple stock very gressier he's been selling think of amErica and um most people I think kind of the like elementary explanation is like he offset some market downturn is coming and um he's going to just stock cash he's can make some big acquisition.

Uh the maybe more advanced uh argument um which I saw people talking about over the weekend is um I think was last year during the um annual meeting he was asked on that day they and how they sold some apple shares. He was asked about IT a shareholder and he talked about businesses and kind of what are going to do not hold my stuff at the very end. He talked to out the fact that the corporate tax rate, which works your pace, twenty one percent previously been higher. Maybe IT will go higher again. And so why do you think he's trimly these positions? And is that a taxing is investment of decision in terms of what?

So uh, the first the text point is hundred percent of fact he stayed that I think he was in may actually as his annual meeting or one of this quarterly results um he basically said we have a twenty one percent ten capo again it's actually created yeah corporate but that corporate text gonna go to uh twenty percent potentially under biden or hair I was by in the time and um people he was saying, well, why not realize those games now and pay less tax and maybe you you want to not even outperform the increase in the tax rate uh, over the next year or so.

There was one part of IT and then I also think he likes um the fact that you can get look is about to they have two hundred and eighty billion dollars of treasury bills. We're talking mothers but he was bounds right now because you're getting you a free return and is necessary. He's even thinks that, that we're turn is so great. It's more that it's Better than losing if the market goes down or taking uncertainty, taking risk and uncertain in the time when there is a lot of consent.

Um he more treasury itmost .

hundred and and but the thing that didn't get as much attention that if you really read into the report, IT said, you know we're halting bbcs until one buff of himself sees the intrinsic value of our stock burger hathaway is below the share Price and then you step back and say, wait, he shot his own stuck.

Like is he really saying that his stock races too high because it's effectively what that means? So that's when I started thinking, well, maybe he is starting to air to the side that markets are a little bit overvalued here if if not even his own stock, they want to buy back anymore. And they only did I mean a couple hundred million of byblos last quarter.

Previous quarters is like two billion each. So he's been tapering down the buybacks with, I don't know, it's interesting. I think he wants to leave possibilities open, but he also still does have a massively that long position even in apple.

I think there are around seventy billion now. So it's not like he's like all out. I think he's just kind of scaling back a little bit and gravely. So after such a hot run I am .

a key come back to this idea that um with three hundred and twenty five billion dollars cash like like I think he called the elephant hunting yeah right like you got to go make a really big acquisition um and it's unclear what they could buy. I know there's been a bunch of talk of different of companies, whatever.

but he is only got you .

know a handful companies with that much cash not going on acquisition. Two or three really go into. He's older.

I do wonder if he is just let me just get all cash put IT there and uh the next you know group that comes in now i've taken the burden of timing, all the position so no one can be a shareholder. And buffet have never sold A, B, C, D. Instead, he just leaves whoever gona take over form with just a pilot cash and says a good.

good thing yeah, could be that and he could also be that maybe doesn't know what the next thing is. Maybe he thinks that he will appear within the next year or so.

And it's good to have money ready to to go just so you can because if you if you have if the next big investment that he wants to make acquisition comes up and the tech crate goes up at the same time, then in a way, you are Better off just taking four percent a year in the treasurer and selling now versus waiting for the next the next year. So I think this is an approach. I don't think there's necessarily like some big and how is this all speculation?

No one knows what they're thinking, but I don't think there's any some big uh, acquisition that's pending right now. eminent. I think it's a more so just gradually taper off and your opportunities will rise. And he's been in both at the Grace invest all time so you can double what he thinks this fine.

Do you think that um let's say buffett was forty or fifty today. Does his world view around value investing still apply you moving far for next five years? I could he have the same run?

I think I that's that's a great question. I think buffett approached to investing would be different if he was Younger and one of his main and buffer like, a when I was grown up, I was like, one of my idols say, I, if anything, everyone that into markets love the warm buffer.

T but he always talked about how only invest in what you know, right? And I feel the things that he knows, like, for example, he earns dairy queen, right? It's like that so warm buffer, it's like when he goes to down and is more his breakfast. And he ATS like, what do he s like six year old, because the healthy people, something.

And like, that's just him, like he knows these businesses, he knows that ends and out of these but I feel like he had even apples like a kind of was a stretch um but he was like, you like, you know what apple is the next big thing is it's a big company. I feel like a few years Younger, maybe he would be embracing more of the AI related place. I mean, he isn't really talk too much about the AI related stuffer and video a and these these hot stocks.

And I I do think you would have different approach. I also think it's it's I don't know if it's harder to real games run now, but the market is way more efficient, like i've been saying, and it's just a completely different time. I mean, markets are so real time and constant when I think when he started investing, he probably had to check the newspaper to see where the some where the market closed on the day like he was that there was. So it's just a different time.

Now when you think of a the U S. Dollar, we have talked a lot about um kind of everything around the dollar, but if you're prety convinced the dollar gonna devalued, um do a rate in mind like is is just to change money supply is some other way that you think about yeah I I mean first.

while the U S. Dollars in an eternal bar market, right look at the chair. It's it's insane if you could just go short the dollar. You could read everyone could be like if we could just play a long term store. I mean, it's it's been inflation obviously been the biggest driver.

I don't surely have a wait in mind that I just think that it's it's something that if you're an investor, you should always keep in the back your mind and have too much exposure. I don't think that the dollars is gonna crash. One of the big things like that was going around for long time was the the U.

S. Dollars losing a reserve currency status and no one's going to use a dollar anymore. And there's always push back. I I don't think so.

I mean, maybe if you'd look at a very long time frame, fifty hundred years maybe, but over the next decade, that's I going to happen. I mean, I repost something about swift payments were like, uh, decade high levels right now on USD unit. So I don't think the use are the adaption of the doors. Go on. I just think that the actual purchasing .

powers will continue go down. What about like bricks and .

of all the geopolitical, they can played into IT and is really start to fade off little bit, uh, there. I don't really think that's gna dethrone on the dollar. Is default something worth noting? And it's that has been definitely fear monger a lot.

But it's not the first time we think something like that. It's not the last. And and I think people don't realize how dominant and large the U.

S. Empire is like it's the biggest and most powerful empire of all time, and it's not even close. Even if you compared to the roman empire back in the day, it's not even close to help.

Big and dominant. The us. Is in the U. S. economy.

I mean, like you said, you can if the U. S. Collapse, everything would collapse. It's all in or twin is a global market. So at this point, if you're betting against that, even if you're right, I mean, that's even the world you want because it's going to be that would be brutal. And I just don't think we're even near the cost of them.

I do so all time people about bit specifically know what happens if the electricity goes out, right? And I you don't want to gone, you know, I get the money thing when there's a lot of them could be go on wrong if no one has electricity in society. What what is your process right to me you're obviously very educated.

You've got a lot of data points. Um you remind me of myself a little bit that you can recall all the data point which always seems to follow. My friend, you remember this. But what is your process to learn in kind of research?

See, that's great question. So I am always looking at data like every since say I was a very Young I i'd always looked at charts and I I could just notice trends, notice outliers, like be very observers about things from a Young age. And I feel this still kind of way.

And now, and i'm always looking at this broad data. I don't even want anyone to break down the data for me. I want to see the data and then I want to sensitize and come up with my own take away.

And that's kind of where I start with things. And that's also why I got into technical analysis because it's a very mathematical way, objective way of looking at things. And all the work I do is objective.

If you're investing with emotion that, that you're never going to be profitable. On investing with emotion, you should look at markets objectively from fundamental and technical point. That's what I do.

And then always look to evolve. I think what a big mistake investors make is they get comfortable. Comfort is a business owner as an investor is really anything involving money.

Comfort is the enemy of a profitable and well performing fn manor investor. Because with the market when the market evolves, you you can have the same approach all the time. If you are investing the same way ah you invested back in two thousand and eight now, well, then you miss out on a lot of stuff.

So I think my a lot of my my method ologies stems from the fact that don't get comfortable, always evolve, come up with new ways of viewing things and be open minded. I think if you get hard headed with an investment, there's sis, that's a very dangerous way to to think. And from there that's kind of ware my my trades fall to play. I do focus on micro with you know some of very small access through the time like gold socks, bonds are various commodities. And I think IT is good to stick to the things that you're in expert, but also you know look for other opportunities and be open minded because the market will continue to change.

When you wake up in the morning, what do you check first? Do you check certain data, point certain websites, read certain things? What what?

The first thing I do is just things and just check the futures. And like I have a whole watch less check the commodate markets, what's happening because I will tell you a lot. And um even right now with the election, i've been looking the prediction markets a lot with, you know cases markets, for example.

There they tell you basically minute to minute who's leading, who's not and then you can see that translate directly into the markets. So i'll check that and then i'll do the Normal morning news runs who happened overnight. Um and then from there, I actually on twitter and see what people are talking about because that's what twitter has been honestly, the biggest driver of markets among the retail investors out of any platform that i've seen in most real time.

Um and then from there, you know just look at the way the next of big users, that economic data release on eight thirty, everything's been dead oriented a recently way for that. And then take the day as ago as, I mean, every day that's a beautiful investor. Every single day is different.

And are you trading every day? Or are you saying, hey, look, i've got kind of core positions. I let those around you some days depending on day.

Maybe I do me a i'm not a day trader when he means we're more swing oriented. There are days when I will have multiple trades to happen if we have exam that goes back to what I I mulled my my strategy to where the market is moving that day. So if you are on a march twenty, twenty market when we are seeing S M P twenty ten percent a day and trying more times today, but in more constant, in less lots of little times, more swing oriented, maybe a few weeks time rise until longer, uh, but constantly updating analysis and posting uh update surge for far scribers.

And they talk about your business because he is very interesting. You started a decade to go, was pretty early. Not kind of you give you talking about .

off camera, but Dennis government was my motivator. I went back when I was in high school. Actually, I would read the garment letter and um I loved that I thought he had a great approach that was all micro base and he would go on TV talk about his predictions and folks on the same acts every week and everyone would basically stop listen to what he said and I thought that sound like a dream job, like invest in tight investing in and that's when I started the coastal letter um and then over time, it's kind of evolved. I think the the thing that the government, he is a very fundamental days.

I kind of started embracing technology and investing more, which allowed me to differences myself a little bit. And another big thing, and I think we ve talked about a lot, is twitter. Back in the days there, a few went on finance witter ten years ago, like a few thousand people.

I was, I was honestly a great time because I was super, super technical. IT was, I mean, if you point if I if you posted a chart or eet that if you go to my tweet like twenty fifteen, you be like, yeah, no one would even understand what you're saying right now, man. Like IT was like a very technical a lot of institutional investors are just talked about markets and that was IT and IT was a great small group of people once it's her growing and me being one of the first people on that platform.

Well, obviously, my following grew, and that that kind of change my content little bit made a little IT more broad, but still kept that technical approach in my premium service were investing. And now I can head the best of both worlds where where we trade with anyone who is really serious about training. We publish our our trade, we publish our research, and they follow that.

But then on our public feed, we also keep IT more broad. We talk about microsoft to talk about the data. I will talk about all the things we ve been talking about. And I think we both sides of the the spectrum, I are really enjoying the stuff to be published.

I think it's do a fantastic job, and thank you. What I think has been A A contributed to your success. You published that the points you explain IT, right?

I think there's a lot of folks who they can look at a data point. A is kind of like a uh, almost a sidelined thing. They're like this happened great.

But really what ends up bringing value to people is think this happened. And here's the three contributing factors. And then here's where I think the world is going because this .

thing happened kind of the basis I appreciate you saying that because my um where I come like the way I think is when ever since a Young age, I was always a kid in the classroom that was like, you know, how do I think about this more simply and not really getting this concept explains me more simply or let me think about more simply and that allowed me to to break down complex topics in and data and charts in a way that a lot simpler to understand, even for people that don't have a lot of experience and investing so and then also make him made me a Better teacher. So I thought, why don't I employ the same thought process and markets? Because I remember I would turn on the MBC or all these different channels when I was in high school or amin Younger, because I was always interested investing and be like I I understood three, the the last ten words that they said, can someone just say this simply? I said, I want to be that person.

This is is simply for other people. So I like to take the complex stuff and break them down and make IT understandable. And I mean, we're doing close to hundred million views a month between all performs now. And I think that's why I think it's it's more so that people just understand what we're saying and they .

find available and then who they have a people who subscribe and kind of pay tension off of the social metal platforms.

So there's honest a wide range. So we have a ton of people that are just managing their own account. Retail traders just myself managing my own account too, uh, and that's probably honesty of vast majority of our describes.

But we also have institutional side things, have a lot of funds, banks, wealth managers that just find research in our value in our research and not even if they're trading on every day, but just seeing what we're thinking. We're even in the natural gas market, for example. Natural gas is like a very technical but highly, highly profound market that we've been trading for years.

We have funds that follows just for natural get rates. So it's it's all over, but that's the beauty of the coster. And we're expanding to we we're trying to bring on more analysts who cover different topics.

And we I want to be this one stop shop for whether you're very sophisticated or your brand newton markets, you can get something of value. But there is free or paid. But as long as we can add value that to him an investors day, that's what we try to do.

And then um did you copy matter anymore and investing, you know you're very unique that um you kind of go back and fourth between different cities but also um IT seems like on twitter specifically I talk to people all around the world then and um the very perspectives a lot I can learn from them uh but they all try and trade U S. markets. Yeah talk a little geography in the importance of that. No interaction. There are subscribers or people.

We have debts ribes and probably every country in the world at this point that that is legal for the U. S. A business with a and people are always when I go, when I go to sleep, someone's waking up and reading what I roll or trading and what I roll.

And that's the beauty of IT. And also, I think the pandemic. The one good thing about the pendell c is that kind of proliferated this global market and economy and way of doing business where I mean, i'm sure you remember if you were going on A A new soul before the penney, everybody was coming to studio.

Now I go to studio. I'm probably the only person there in person because everyone wants to join virtually. It's a lot easier.

So um that the globalization of markets and just technology has lets a rapid growth in our sugriva base in our business. I think that will be to be the case because everybody can invest in the market in the U. S. Or globally and everybody can read what we write because it's tell you a daily edition, it's snow. You just log on, you try to your email or you the second, I think that .

makes makes sense, we send people to find more about letter.

the code letter, that com is our website and coc letter and all platforms. We publish everything highly.

suggest people follow, check out the the letter and you do a great .

jobs much for to do solo.

What's up guys? I hope you enjoy in this episode, but I got a quick message for you. I just released my very first book is called how to live in extraordinary life.

In this book, there are sixty five life lessons that i've picked up over the years. These lessons will teach you about money investing, relationships, work, health, happiness and much more. In this book, I wrote letters to each one of my children, and I tried to share those life lessons with them.

If you pick up this book, there are three things that I can promise you. The first is that IT is very conscious. The audio book is only three hours.

You can listen to IT on a long drive, on a rainy afternoon. The second thing is that you're going to learn something. It's worth the Price of admission just for the lessons themselves.

And then the third thing is IT will make you think more deeply about your life and how you try to live. So go pick up how to live in shortened life today. It's a quick read.

It's very impactful. It's very concise. And IT would mean the world to me for the support, go check IT out today on amazon barns and noble forever. You buy your books hard cover audio books IT all works. Thank you so much for the support, and I D love to hear what you think about the new book.