我最近读了安妮·雅各布森(Annie Jacobson)的新书《核战争:一个场景》(Nuclear War, A Scenario),这本书彻底改变了我对核战争的认知。长期以来,我的播客《硬核历史》(Hardcore History)多次探讨过核武器,从其对战争模式的改变到其带来的反乌托邦式末日景象,我都进行了深入的分析。但雅各布森的书,以一种前所未有的方式,将核战争的恐怖直观地呈现在读者面前。
这本书并非枯燥的学术研究,而是一个引人入胜的故事。它从一枚核武器发射后的第一秒开始,以戏剧性的叙事手法,描绘了核战争可能如何一步步展开,最终导致世界毁灭。这种叙事方式并非虚构,而是建立在作者对超过一百位掌握核武器核心秘密的专家进行的深入访谈之上。这些专家,包括将军、前国防部长、以及参与核武器研发和战略规划的科学家,向雅各布森提供了大量第一手资料,部分信息甚至触及了《间谍法》的边缘。
这本书最震撼我的地方在于,它让我直面了核战争的残酷现实。 以往我接触到的关于核战争的资料,大多停留在数据和理论分析层面,例如百万吨级当量、爆炸半径、破坏力等等。这些数字虽然可怕,但却缺乏一种真实的冲击力。雅各布森的书则不同,它将这些冰冷的数字转化为具体的场景,让我们感受到核战争的恐怖并非抽象的概念,而是切实的、触手可及的威胁。
书中揭示了许多令人震惊的事实。例如,美国先进的太空卫星系统SIBRS可以在不到一秒钟内探测到洲际弹道导弹的发射;美国总统在接到来袭核导弹通知后,只有大约六分钟的时间来下达反击命令;核潜艇的隐蔽性极高,几乎无法被探测到,随时可能发动致命一击;一枚小型核武器在太空引爆,就能造成大范围的电磁脉冲,瘫痪全球电力系统,引发“电力末日”。这些细节都清晰地展现了核战争发生速度之快,以及决策时间之短。
更令人不安的是,书中揭示了核战争的不可控性。 历史上曾有人设想可以进行有限的核战争,或者赢得核战争。但雅各布森的书有力地驳斥了这种观点。一旦核武器被使用,局势就很难控制,很可能迅速升级为全面核战争,波及到与冲突无关的国家和地区。书中模拟的场景中,朝鲜的一次“意外”袭击,迅速演变成美俄之间的全面核冲突,这并非虚构,而是基于现实的可能性推演。
雅各布森还探讨了核扩散问题。目前,世界上已有九个国家拥有核武器,而且这个数字很可能继续增加。更多的国家拥有核武器,就意味着“意外”袭击的可能性大大增加,世界将面临更大的风险。
这本书并非仅仅是关于核战争的恐怖描述,更是对人类理性与疯狂的深刻反思。 雅各布森的采访对象中,许多人都在年老之后,回顾自己的一生,表达了对核武器的深深悔恨。他们曾经相信可以控制核战争,但现在意识到这种想法是多么的幼稚和危险。
我们必须正视核战争的威胁。 我们不能再像过去那样,对核武器视而不见,或者抱有侥幸心理。雅各布森的书,以及我多年来对核武器的关注,都提醒我们:核战争并非遥不可及的幻想,而是真实存在的威胁。我们必须认真思考如何避免这场灾难,如何更好地管理核武器,如何防止核武器扩散。 这不仅仅是政治家和军事专家的责任,更是全人类共同的责任。 我们必须行动起来,才能避免人类文明走向毁灭。
Annie Jacobsen's book 'Nuclear War, A Scenario' focuses on a dramatic narrative that outlines how a nuclear war might unfold, starting one second after a nuclear weapon is launched. It uses insider and expert information to provide a realistic and horrifying scenario of the potential consequences of nuclear war.
Annie Jacobsen chose to write about nuclear war because, as an investigative journalist specializing in war, weapons, and national security, she was struck by the recurring theme in her interviews with high-level sources who dedicated their lives to preventing nuclear World War III. The nuclear saber-rattling rhetoric during the Trump administration further motivated her to explore what would happen if deterrence failed.
The six-minute decision-making window is the time the U.S. president has to decide on a counterattack after being notified of an incoming nuclear missile. This short timeframe, sourced from President Reagan's memoir, highlights the irrational pressure and urgency involved in making a decision that could lead to Armageddon.
Submarines, particularly nuclear-armed ones, are referred to as 'handmaidens of the apocalypse' because they are nearly impossible to detect and can launch ballistic missiles in as little as 14 minutes. Their stealth and destructive capability make them a critical and terrifying component of the nuclear triad.
An EMP from a nuclear detonation, especially one detonated in space, could cause catastrophic failure of nearly all electronic systems, including power grids, transportation, communication, and even modern vehicles. This 'electric Armageddon' would result in widespread chaos and a collapse of infrastructure.
Jacobsen chose North Korea as the initiator of a nuclear attack because it is the only nuclear-armed nation that flagrantly violates international norms, such as announcing missile tests. Its unpredictable and nihilistic behavior, combined with its ability to launch missiles without warning, makes it a plausible and dangerous candidate for a 'bolt out of the blue' attack.
Nuclear winter refers to the climatic effects of a nuclear war, where the soot from massive fires caused by nuclear explosions blocks sunlight, leading to a significant drop in global temperatures. This would result in the collapse of agriculture, forcing humanity into a hunter-gatherer state and causing long-term devastation to civilization.
The 'Reagan reversal' refers to President Ronald Reagan's shift in attitude toward nuclear weapons after watching the 1983 ABC miniseries 'The Day After,' which depicted a nuclear war. This led to the Reykjavik summit with Mikhail Gorbachev, resulting in significant reductions in nuclear arsenals from 70,000 to approximately 12,500 warheads.
Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is the doctrine that the possession of large nuclear arsenals by opposing powers ensures that any nuclear attack would result in the total annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. While intended to deter nuclear war, Jacobsen and others argue that it is fundamentally irrational and precarious, as it relies on the assumption that systems and humans will never fail.
In the event of a nuclear war, humanity would lose not only millions of lives but also its cultural, historical, and scientific legacy. Monuments, art, knowledge, and technological advancements built over millennia would be destroyed, leaving future generations without access to the achievements of human civilization.
Investigative journalist Annie Jacobsen joins Dan to discuss the contents of her new book which, using insider and expert information, dramatically outlines how a nuclear war might unfold.