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Dan Carlin
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Dan Carlin: 我试图从一个更广阔的历史视角来审视一些长期存在的人类问题,例如战争、土地所有权、移民、种族、环境问题以及人类创造力的双刃剑。通过对这些问题的长期观察,我发现一些人类行为模式具有惊人的一致性,例如战争和冲突似乎贯穿人类历史始终;种族和移民问题也是历史的常态;人类对环境的破坏也是自古有之。这些问题的长期存在性,以及人类行为模式的长期不变性,值得我们深思。 从DNA检测结果来看,我的祖先在15万年前从非洲迁徙到现在的俄罗斯南部,这提醒我,解剖学意义上现代智人存在的时间远超我们现有历史记载的时间。这让我思考,在书写历史出现之前,人类社会是什么样的?一种可能性是更复杂的类黑猩猩社会;另一种可能性是规模更小,但同样具有戏剧性和复杂性的社会。 19世纪的民族国家试图追溯其光荣的古代血统,这导致了对种族和民族的过度关注。然而,从长远来看,种族和民族只是暂时的,不断变化的。纳粹的种族纯洁论就是这种错误观念的极端表现。通过对切达尔人的研究,我们可以看到,现代英国人的种族构成与史前时期大相径庭,这说明人类一直在迁徙和融合。 土地所有权问题也与人类的迁徙和融合密切相关。从长远来看,几乎没有人居住在祖先最初居住的土地上。因此,现代民族国家的土地所有权主张,在历史的长河中,显得有些可笑。 我用人类寿命来衡量历史时间,可以更直观地感受历史的漫长。仅仅是几百年的时间,就足以改变一个地区的人口构成。几千年,甚至几万年前,人类社会的面貌与今天已经完全不同。 人类对环境的破坏也是自古有之,但现代的破坏更为持久,因为我们制造了无法生物降解的污染物。 “七代哲学”与凯恩斯的“长远来看,我们都死了”的观点形成对比,体现了人类行为模式的长期不变性与短期利益的冲突。 人工智能可能是解决人类问题的方案,但它也可能带来新的风险。人类的创造力既是进步的源泉,也可能导致自我毁灭。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What does the long view of human history reveal about our species?

The long view of human history reveals that anatomically modern humans have been around for 250,000 to 350,000 years, with the vast majority of that time being prehistory. Only the last 5,000 to 6,000 years are recorded in history books, meaning most of human existence occurred before writing, cities, and complex societies. This perspective highlights that war, conflict, and environmental impact have been constants throughout human history, suggesting that many of our current challenges are deeply rooted in our species' behavior.

Why is the concept of ethnicity considered temporary in the long view of history?

Ethnicity is considered temporary in the long view because human populations have been moving and intermixing for hundreds of thousands of years. DNA evidence shows that all humans originated in Africa, and over time, migrations and interbreeding have created the diverse ethnicities we see today. These ethnic identities are constantly evolving, and what we consider fixed ethnic traits today are likely to change significantly over the next 10,000 to 20,000 years.

What does the story of Cheddar Man reveal about human migration and ethnicity?

Cheddar Man, a prehistoric figure from Britain, had dark skin and hair, which contrasts with the lighter skin and hair often associated with modern British people. This shows that the ethnic makeup of a region can change dramatically over time due to migration and intermixing. It underscores the idea that no population remains genetically or ethnically static over long periods, and that current ethnic identities are just a snapshot in the long history of human movement and mixing.

How does the long view challenge the idea of indigenous peoples?

The long view challenges the idea of indigenous peoples by showing that almost no one inhabits the land their ancestors originally settled. Human migration over hundreds of thousands of years means that nearly all populations have moved and mixed with others. The concept of being 'indigenous' becomes complicated when considering that most people are newcomers to the land they currently inhabit, and their ancestors likely displaced or mixed with earlier populations.

What does the long view suggest about humanity's impact on the environment?

The long view suggests that humans have always been hard on the environment, but the nature of that impact has changed. In earlier times, environmental damage was often temporary because humans were nomadic and used biodegradable materials. Today, our environmental impact is more severe due to the use of non-biodegradable materials like plastics and the scale of industrialization. This means that while environmental destruction is not new, its permanence and global scale are unprecedented.

How does the long view of history relate to the concept of artificial intelligence?

The long view of history suggests that human behavior has been consistent over time, particularly in terms of conflict, environmental impact, and short-term thinking. Artificial intelligence could act as a 'wild card' to disrupt these patterns by introducing long-term, seventh-generation thinking into decision-making. However, this raises ethical questions about whether it is wise to create something smarter than ourselves, as it could either save humanity from its destructive tendencies or lead to unforeseen consequences.

What does the long view reveal about the concept of land ownership?

The long view reveals that land ownership is a relatively recent concept in human history and is often tied to colonialism and displacement. Over hundreds of thousands of years, humans have moved and settled new lands, often displacing or mixing with earlier populations. This means that claims to ancestral land are often based on a narrow slice of history, and the idea of permanent ownership is challenged by the constant movement and intermixing of human populations.

Chapters
The podcast opens by imagining what an alien historian might write about humanity, given our long and complex history. The host discusses the challenge of summarizing such a vast span of time and highlights the need for a long-term perspective to understand recurring themes.
  • A galactic history book would likely need to condense human history into a few key points.
  • A long lens is needed to understand humanity's recurring issues.
  • The host is searching for recurring themes in human history.

Shownotes Transcript

Dan tries focusing a much wider historical lens on perennial human issues like war, land ownership, immigration, ethnicity, environmental worries and the double-edged sword that is human inventiveness. 1. Agricola and Germania by Tacitus 2. A Most Dangerous Book: Tacitus's Germania from the Roman Empire to the Third Reich by  Christopher B. Krebs