Make Ambiguity Great Again (Guest: Le Shrub)
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Hit IT it's friday, november fifty two thousand and twenty four episode two fifty one on Patrick sassa and i'm Kevin .

yan this week we welcome to the show lisha b. We learn about his background working for one of the hedgeflower managers featured in the big short, why no video must die and how trump is making ambiguity great again. Then Patrick tries to make sense of these markets by drawing some funny lines and some charts in this weeks, talking charts.

And then folks, we might even drink some beers along the way. So danny, hop on uh what beer are we drinking this week? I know a youtube oh yeah ah yeah cause you failed you like you go to another location and like oh, I left IT back in my other place what you and .

we do all know he just change .

in early um this week we're drinking or your drinking princess climate sour um power beer it's pretty part I image this probably crc fresh, maybe some great food and there's something .

like that oh my god like he's nAiling IT .

you know what I usually can't stand showers like they're usually terrible. This is in bad .

it's just getting used to IT your palette .

is i'm getting next thing you know i'm going to be a millennial oh my god I the number jack jackets growing a beard. Because that's what millennial do these days. I'm not i'm just showing how old I am by telling you something millennial s were doing you know ten years ago.

All right, right.

Give me the screen. But nothing in this potash you've views as investment advice this or should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topic mention in the show. Side effects of too much handle may include the short squeeze them, the time chair of chrome and the A, I, acid. Anxiety and guy suffer from all three.

those I, all the time yeah and that's why that's why we're passing on to our listeners. All right, let's get to the show about .

it's our great pleasure to welcome to the show. Somebody, i've been looking forward to chatting for a long, long time sub trip. Thanks for coming on.

I am so honored to be on the show.

You're the first dog kind of tree slash you planned that we've had on on the show.

Well, exactly. This is a time for acceptance of everything, people who identify as anything they want.

Oh, that's awesome. sorry. So let's get to know this rub a little bit um before we get going because you do have some terrific insights but before we we learn about your insights, let's find out a little bit about your background you where where you're from first of all you know what .

what planned and where what country you from yeah sure so um i'm from cyprus um and I spent couple years in the army there. Then I went to study in the U K. You know what's good? Did you go to set up that? Okay.

I I went to oxford. I don't really .

say IT out loud, but know I went to oxford. There's some beautiful shrovetide gardens and oxford, you know, I i'm from there. Okay, i'm a complete geek.

I'm proud of IT. So I started engineering and economics and management. So what kind of from a technical background or with a dash of the economics on IT.

So how did you choose that? Like so you went originally fingering and then you added economics.

I I chose the subject straight away because actually wasn't sure what I wanted to do in life. So I went for the modest subject that I could um because I I am engineering I am engineering oriented or mathematic oriented as I write. I you know I like math not math you know math because kind of like the you know the engineering thought process, you know just doing back of the envelope, doing first principles.

But then I also like the business sites. So that's why I combine the two subjects together. Um was a pretty hard subject but you know paid off by the end of IT. Um so you know I because of the background uh in finance combined with engineering and that up working emerges and acquisitions for two years and I was know a .

slave for one of things like .

in longer yeah was a laz actually no so that was a very good, very good experience. And then I ended up working for one of the famous big short managers in london uh back when I was a small fu N D and you know was I was very very grateful and very a very lucky to have work with him um and I did that you know throughout the the big short period you know from two thousand and six two two thousand and eleven so know I went through the good times for the fund.

right? Let's talk a little bit about that where you actually involved in those trades or where you managing hoping with something else?

No, so that's the final part. So I was actually um the fund I was with without giving too much away was actually ever driven fund, right? So the supreme trade was done out of new york, but in reality, uh our mindset was event driven throughout the whole trade and we expanded the trade in other areas.

For example, uh, you know we we were short to some european banks, uh, that were just loaded up with supreme as an example OK. So so you know the beautiful thing about that trade was that they had a lot of spillovers in to other areas. So I event driven investors. So I was involved in one part which was ah with the equities of uh with the bank equities. So I I I spent like two years of my life going through baLance sheet and the trying to figure out what what the healthy banks do.

And I was actually like a really interesting period for a journalist to approach banks because you know i'll tell you, want to put a story which you find interesting um I am calling dota bank back in two thousand and seven uh and I asked them about an item on the baLance sheet that was called other and that item was four hundred billion 所以 我 other yeah so I call the I R。 And the I R was like, you I don't know is like, how can you know know is four hundred billion is like, well, no one asks us about the baLance sheet. Oh, so that was the time.

So that's why know, I just take that experience forward to other parts of to to my career because he imagine having a whole IT was a very well covered industry banks of the time, right? Yet no one was checking the baLance sheet. I mean, it's so simple nowaday, right? But you know no one paid any attention.

So you could have made a lot of money if you just figured out some simple things like ah if you take if you took the supreme asset and mark them to market, you know just just use common sense like, well, wisest market one hundred, when is trading at six in the market? And then if you put that at six instead of a hundred, well the equity of the bank is wiped out of five times that was like the simplicity of the trade. So, you know, and I ve ve encountered the same thing, like over and over again, you know, when consensus thinks of one thing is not, is not, consensus is actually like the norm.

So what's the norm at the time? The norm was to look only at the piano of the banks. No one looking at the baLance sheet right now.

I mean, you you know you can make an argument about you know today, no one looks at valuation, right, but let not get there. But you know what i'm getting with yes. I mean, it's it's interesting to approach things from a different perspective when you come in with a fresh paralyzed, that's what i'm trying to get to.

That's a great point in and you're kind of highlighting the fact that no one was will give the baLance sheet. I remember, I know, and getting on c nbc and talking about lemons baLance sheet that way and everyone was like, not that can be there's no way and he was spotted on correct like that what you guys were seen, right like IT and IT was so novel and and kind of unusual at the time for anyone to worry about that. All right. So you're there at the at this firm and eventually what's the next step in your career?

So next step, I wanted to become a portfolio manager of myself. So I spent um the next twelve years as a portal low manager in two heat chance um and then ended up up being a cheap and C I O at a family office. H so I was running a family office for a couple years um just basically running IT as a as a hetch fun in reality right and and now having you know my my second kid, i'm just I just decided to chill out which was the wrong word because i'm not shelling out exactly and and manage my own and at the same time, you know just to beat the loneliness, I started writing this, a shrub stack, which I I call IT, the reminiscent anes of a shrub Operator, tribute of the reminiscent ces of a stock Operator.

Where where did the sharp come from? Like.

how did that shop came? Because I during cold that I was, you know, I I was running a hetch fund pod. I was actually in a pod um and I was I was stuck alone in the house and I joined twitter, right?

Because I was I just wanted to reach out to the outside world. So I was like, what kind of name should I pick up? And I love multiple.

And I was A B, M, uh, in search of the holy grail, right? You have the the nights of knee and the shrubbery. And, you know, we want a robbery.

H, go. That's pretty cool. But then, but then I was like, well, the shrubbery actually makes a good hedge, which is a hatch fund, right?

So, oh, the shrubbery makes a hedge, which is a hatch fund. So shrubbery capital. So I started with a shrub y capital, but then went a step further.

So there's a weird one. So then Cathy wood tweet something about the the market cap of the stock market to G, D. P, the buffett indicator. Yeah, okay.

I know the yeah the charge.

the famous charge, so SHE twitted out something and I replied, is like and I replied, have joking is like, well, actually is not really good indicated anymore, because the U. S. Stock market is actually very global now.

So you you should be looking at the global market cap two to the global GDP. O, so as I twitted that out, a guy replies after me called elon musk and he has trust the shrub. So that so that's when the account just became viral.

And i'm like, oh, here I am like a head front manager. You tweet random stuff and suddenly, suddenly elon missing know the richest guy in the world's trust, a shrub. So under our being the shrub on twitter, and I made IT a bit more of french.

So when I am, look shrubb. So you mentioned that you were a at a pot shop little bit about that. What was the difference in kind of sum in the pot shop was a little more rigid than your first firm that you work for under the kind of that big short guy? Yeah and and I would love to get your experience is somebody that's been on the byline on on the hetch fn side specifically about how the industry has changed over the last kind of fifteen, twenty years.

I'm very glad you asked that question because I I am very well quipped to answer IT having worked at a fund that um was a proper hatch fund, I would say that the first fun I worked when was a proper hetch fund and the second one of as well was a was a great hedge fund, was an inventor and fund where we had uh you know direction and everything so then moving to the pot shop and you know a great fun as well just to be clear but without mentioning names is like just assume its the same structure everywhere in millennium point seventy two sited all these things like the same behavior.

And I wasn't event driven manager. The difference was striking. IT was striking in so many ways that I i'm gona just mention that this way. It's like the pods when you see this, the headlines one d died or lennie basically what what does model is? They've created the supermarket where they just hire the smart st guys and um they allocate you know a few percent to each smart guy um and they just tell them, okay, go go and allocate do whatever you can and if you don't return x percent while you're out and IT comes the next one.

yes.

But this is like in my view and very mind I been doing for close to twenty years now, IT was actually a very difficult environment to make proper money. And I am actually motivated not by the you know, I was motivated by the percentage return. yeah.

So to put in a very simple way the risk parameters that I had, I reckon I could make you know five to ten percent a year. I don't think I could have made more than five ten percent a year in the pot shop. When I moved to the family office and I was running the family office.

Now we made like forty percent in twenty twenty two, right? For a very simple reason. And we have like a couple of ten percent during downs.

But if I had those ten percent during downs in the pot shop, I would have been liquidated three times. Yeah so so that's what people don't understand about the poses. Basically the risk parameters res are so tight, like you lose two percent, five percent, you get your capital cut.

So the stress level is very, very different. Like come in the office and you're like, you know if you if you're close to you know say you have a bad trade, which everyone has a bad trade and your bad trade was oversize to like you let's say like even five ten percent position, which is okay. It's too much let's to ten percent position and you're down you know twenty thirty percent that's three percent to uh draw down.

Well that three percent drop in a pot shop you already like blown through half of your uba. So the stress when you come in and usually like you have another few guys to to work, that you usually have a couple of guys that work with you as well, guys or guys. So you also have the stress of them performing and you know them getting paid because you know you Carry that burden h with you.

so. The problem with today's pot shops is a it's almost like play stupid games when stupid praises like I I really don't see like the long short. Let me clarify. I was an, I was an event driven guy always, right? So the event side, I don't see that making more than five ten percent a year. And then the long short side, again, given how the market is, I again, I don't really see IT making more than five ten cent a year given the restriction and the um uh and the risk parameters in place that I told you. So that leaves you with the quant side and the alcove. And without having any detail right now, i'm pretty sure that the majority of the profits of all these potshots is not made in the traditional long short a merger arbitrage side, I reckon is made probably with you know algos and volatility strategies and know more exotic things, which by the way, partly explains a lot of the stupidity that we see in the markets. But that's again .

a different story. okay. So so your argument is that these they're called hetch funds, these millennium and and a vento, all those ones that pot shop, but they're really completely different animals than what we used to have, correct? current. And and then do you think let's just explore what you say that because there's no doubt that they are huge and they are affecting the market. And you've kind of highlighted the fact that you think a lot of the strategies are more algorithmic and quote based and stuff that do you think that that's having um a change in is IT changing the market dynamics of like how we think about risk and how the markets behave?

Yeah, hundred percent by the way. I mean, I would really like to know the percentage of millenniums you I would really like to know the percentage of millenniums business being know what percentage is in in algos. I would really like to know that or algo or quana driven.

Well, the others and I think is like the basis trade is huge. How many of them are? How many they are kind of funding trades that were not aware of? How many them are credit trades like you know, a lot of people don't know, but there's a lot of big credit funds out there that just you don't write the front into the credit curve, just whole bunch of trades like that.

yeah. So I mean, look, let me tell you, the very simple example is march twenty, twenty. And most of these funds were probably involved, right? Wasn't solving, but they probably like blew up, if you can.

You you I think .

in march twenty, twenty, a lot of them we're down like for a few days. They were probably down a lot for a few days because the basis trade blew up and march twenty, twenty with good, right, right? And these guys are you to play the basis for, you need to lever forty, fifty times or something. So that's why I sad like for a few days, i'm pretty sure they had a bigger throw down that we would know that we would know about.

right? And the fact is the reporting their numbers once .

and they thirty percent .

or whatever, the reality is that that they fixed and the government came and fixed IT.

Yeah, exactly. I mean, I look, you know, just to be clear, I mean these these are amazing firms like they have amazing risk management. Uh, both the place I was add and you know something like cattle or millennium, I mean their strength is not really my fellow monkeys who run you know one percent of the fund know the strength of millennium and citadel is actually the risk management, right?

Because there you know what they're offering. I'm not against what they're offering. You know it's it's impressive what they're telling you. We will not give you will not suffer drawdowns with us and you can put as much money as you want. I mean, it's actually a very know it's a very good business model for pension funds and the yes.

And there were going to be out outstanding .

like you like .

the reason that they are growing so much as because it's working.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. But you but having said that, for me personally, I just did not like that you know I didn't like coming to manage like I had just given an idea like I was running at some point to you see that I mean hundreds of millions, you know and then I had a ten percent um beta um uh plus reminds ten percent data exposure.

So imagine you're running like a hundred million and your beta can only be plus reminder eighty million on eight hundred million in an equity book. I mean that that's pretty it's tough. Like eh that's tight.

That's super tight. Yeah, I super me. yeah. I just giving you like a rut. I'm just giving you like a you know just a back. Well, just a rough, rough number because is a lot of other parameters involved. But basically, that's why you have a lot of uh, you know certain strategy don't really fit inside people anymore. Like the event driven strategy, for example, I don't think IT fits in the point anymore that should be outside a pod, but because there are so much money that needs to be allocated and because there's a lot of money that you know event driven is actually a capital hungry strategy. You know they .

all put IT in there, right?

But every time every time a deal blows up in the merger arb space, you know a poddies. It's like, you know when you say something, a fair dies the same thing like you see at the old boing up is like, oh, i'm looking forward to the bomberg headline that know this in this pot died.

I actually can ask a quick question because i'm always curious about the numbers that you get in terms of those risk primers. And and you mention that you know you're running eight hundred million and they let you have a dota of ten or whatever, so you have eighty million of directional. What did they give you? Like your factor numbers as well. They say, you know you have, let's say, fifty million of small ls h you know our small cap c exposure and they go through all the different factors and and and give you that and tell you they also did they also limit you in terms of your factors or was IT just delta?

Yeah so because I was running an event driven book, I had different limitations. For example, ah you know on a on a deal basis, you you're not you're allowed to lose x percent per deal, but the long of guys would have yeah the long short guys would have like a factor limits as well like you can't have x percent more in a sector right because you know you don't want to have like a guy going, uh uh yeah, i'm keeping my bed in neutral, but i'm going to put my whole thing a long commodities short, a uh, tech reactive ves, your beta ten percent, but your factors are just all over the place.

So these factors you canna sit down with this, I mean, to be fair, you know they're they're very smart about them. You just sit down with the risk managers uh and the C I O. And and you just you define your factors from the beginning. So you have like you have like a recipe that you work from.

In a way, I get IT. So you gotten going in and then you'll be only allowed this much of small, this much of interested exposure or whatever you do things they want.

Important one, by the way, is the liquidity factor. So the liquid factories is very important in the ports because they will always tell you you're never gonna go more than you know, five days liquidity or something as in this way, this way, uh, if IT trades ten bugs a day, you're not going to buy more than ten bugs. So you want to have like you, anna, have a limit on how much a liquid you get.

And that's why I think this actually quite helpful for people that listen to this because you know when to poddies, which they always do, you do see often very weird moves and stocks that are, you know very proud, heavy because you know that sometimes I just to get out so I don't like, yeah, I don't like they have the the the because when you have revolving chairs as well, you know you have revolving positions. So you know one guy leaves and the other guy doesn't want to keep that position. Well, you know, they dump y IT. Does IT does IT really matter for, you know, city or milenio if they dump IT, like five person lower .

or ten percent lower. Like I remember my day, I was a day one manager, one a Mandate from another manner. They come in and to be a fire sale in the names that they were, you know, inheriting because they be like, I just want this off to sheet and just be like self and pie, the ones we used to do a lots of business and baskets.

That would be what we do. We would get the basket of the cells and we get the basket of the purple. They wanted that what we do. One last question about the post because I do think that you are unique, able and more importantly, willing to talk about these things because a lot of the folks that are actually in, I don't want to talk about, but is wondering in terms of crowding, like you worry that they're all in the same quante trades and they're the that there's that there's distortions in the market that are leading them to, to crowd into things. And if we ever did have kind of a situation where correlations went to one that they might even though they have liquidity constraints, they might all be collectively underestimate how much they are all doing the same things.

I think that's the whole market, by the way. okay. So i'm going to i'm gonna say something to their credit for once that I think the likes of citizen and millennia im have a Better visibility on that than the rest because they actually see the pots within them and very mind.

I know I was doing a strategy and driven is the most a concentrated strategy out there because we are in the same trades. Ten deals were in the same deal. So you kind of know the concentration that's there. But but I would say that you know the pots have very good visibility there.

But the the the structure of the market right now um because of the algos and the city on top of the poles has created this sovereign ced cycle with is a sovereign ced in reality where everyone just chases the same trade and the factors. And certain factors become dominant. So how we started the discussion about you know like uh that no one looked at the baLance sheet in two thousand and seven, you know right now, you know you can make the same argument now that you know does anyone look at evaluations really?

No, they're all chasing E P. S.

visions. alright? exactly. You just do E P. S. revisions.

So so if the pod guy, so here here's I worked, you know, the pod guy figures out which factors work and the pod guy just going to do like, well, you know what, I have a tight limit, so i'm going to do x percent of my book will be E, P, S. Revisions, but the C. T. Is going to the same.

And then you know the other guy who's run IT, who's in a mid level fund is nothing like, well, i'm going to do the and then the retail guy is gonna, palen, teer and cava and carvin are going up and like, well, you know like the chart is great and then it's gonna on twitter and pose a stupid charge. So it's above the fifty dma. You know I just like and just buy IT, like it's great.

Okay, fine, IT is going up. It's fantastic. Everyone's making money .

until they're not so. So you're worried more than like you. Your argument is that, yes, the pots are crowded, but if anything, they are more able to recognize when that crowding is a problem and get out and it's going to be almost the rest of the market that holds holding the back.

Yeah, I think everyone's going to be a bag holder eventually.

Is that a shrub ism? Everyone is a bag holder eventually .

everyone's a bag holder are eventually you just don't want to be the, you know you just want like, you know what i'm actually what i'm what i'm saying because I actually told something from you. I can see that I play gorizia IT. okay? You have this beautiful theory of the rolling bubbles. Yeah so I I expanded on that and I called IT the tear of the rolling ponzis. So like like I gave you credit.

okay? There's nothing new in this world. You know i'm sure that I was in the first day, although I don't know if I ever saw before, but there's nothing new in this world.

So the plans so wanting to talk about that because let's so let's get now. You know, I been preparing you with all sorts questions about the past and how the market, the structure, let's get in terms of your actual beliefs of what's happening. And I do see that you've been writing about these rolling poses bringing in, in terms of what we're seen in the market today and maybe where the opportunities might lie.

Yeah sure. So the role importance is actually quite simple. So basically there is a finite amount of capital in the retail world, for example, um even in the hatch one world.

So you know the idea is that if if that we're rotating into different pounds to play the psy, do you and what you want na be is you want to to just avoid being the bag holder in a psi because there is nothing worse than being a bad holder in a psy, maybe being a backhoe der in energy, as you know, because of being quite painful. But you know being a bad holder in a posy that yeah like you're down ninety percent. So now I just use this stupid example um because you know I I write for my own pleasure as well.

So like a month ago and video host today, quantum computing conference OK, and I looked at one year ago when and video did the quantum computing conference and I looked at all these, uh, quantum computer stocks, which are completely pounds, by the way, I just be care. And I notice that they went up like three, four times after the conference, right, and they got beaten up and they were, you know, sitting at the lows, but you know, picking up a now before, you know, before the NVIDIA converse and like, and I wrote this peace, the fear of the ruling poses. okay. And i'm like IT cannot be this stupid that we're going to a repeat the same thing as last year that people are going to buy quantum computer stocks before before the invidia conference. But you know what i'm in.

Is isn't an amazing how you say, like I can be the stupid and yet that is.

yeah know the the kidding is that you have to go in. So because you have to assume that is so stupid, that is gonna work. So now we went in and the stocks tripled in like a month. I can be that stupid, but but IT is so so I have this quote that, you know, the shrubs m, that says, once you realized it's told nonsense.

IT starts to make sense. That is a great line. There's been never something more appropriate.

Yeah so so like so you know i'm out of the computer ponzi theme and now you know you have to find the next rolling ponzi and you know either some sectors that have been doing really well like you know uh the urania was like the nuclear poses have been on fire um the space pointers have been on fire you and now with the trumped ministration dude, i'm telling you like they're gonna be saying something stupid and every time there is something stupid, there will be another ponzi born going the birth and rebirth and death of ponzis like, I like.

look at who is put like, if if you know what's amazing, we're taping this friday afternoon. I saw trump yesterday appear somewhere and J, D, events wasn't beside them. Elon musk beside them. The king is A F.

F. IT is gonna .

be absolutely crazy. I am you yeah but so i'm actually .

super excited. I mean, it's been a great year, but i'm actually super excited about the next few years for traders because you know i'm A I am a speculator. I have no calm saying IT because people want to say i'm a economist or am a ah you know invest i'm a speculator as simple as that. That's why it's called what i'm writing is called reminisces of a troub Operator and not like some nonsense micro title uh but um um you know just a pleasant ah what I mean where you know we're traders at heart, right so we're going to trade and actually europe that great piece that uh copy uh reposted the yesterday.

Okay, thank you.

Yeah that was really, really good because basically you know where you and I we're getting excited about this um this opportunity of volatility yeah right.

So listen, we can see around and get all upset about things from a political point of view. But there's no denying ying that in terms of things changing is is here like this is the biggest change in terms of macro that we've had in years, flash decades exactly.

And it's I mean, it's gonna be the best time for micro. And actually i'd like to pick your brain on on a on something on that, uh, but it's gonna the best time for micro as well because you know like today for you let's just do today because today was quite exciting for me. Um so they appointed R F K for the ministry of health of whatever.

And then everyone was selling, you know the farmer stocks on that and the bike stocks, but at the same time, via vivid comes out and says, well, we need to reform the F. D. A. To speed up approval of drugs. And, you know, make the face is more, which is actually like the most bullish thing you could say, her biotic you have on one side, you know one guy going against M R N A or whatever, but on the other side you have via vivid hope i'm saying you correctly when you know he's he's like, well, we need to speed up approvals, which is actually the most bullish thing for the biotech stocks. Yeah um so you know i'm i'm actually been a buyer of you know some small caps that I think will benefit from expendable approvals on on the back of that um and you know that's the kind of things i'm excited on on the on the on on on the microsite and and I was actually thinking of writing a peace called mega make ambiguity great again.

H that's perfect and and it's show true you've highlighted something. So many of trump and his administration policies are actually contradictory. There are so many things like that, like he sits there and says, I I want the us.

To be the reserve currency and he says, I think a strong dollars is important and then he says, at the same time, japan and china know their currencies are too low. They're taking advantage of us. And and so there's all these things that you're just like, holy smokes, what know what do you take out of IT? And I think that right now, everyone is just seen what they wanted.

See, I can tell you the number of arguments i've gotten with people and they and they tell me stuff and i'm like listening. You're not listening to what he says. You're just choosing the best parts of whatever suits your agenda.

But i'm with you on the on the microbes. There is gonna huge opportunities like that as well. Now you mention that you bought these things, and are you going to hold them longer than your typical time frame?

Yeah, yeah. no.

And I would give you a hard time before we we started because I was like, holy smokes, I ve been watching you trade stuff back and forth. And you are you know you you say you're speculator in your trader. You truly are you are in there in and out.

And I was just shocked like, you know, I saw you ride fully get bearish on the as deck and i'm taking no nailed this trade and he's going to stay with IT and then all I out booked IT. So I talked to me a little bit about your time frame. You know if if you're willing share that story that you were chatting with your kind of your you got your your frequent um coal partner, their palo with the tesler oh .

yeah yeah sure. So I was, uh you know me and palo were, you know where B F F and you know we we call each other and sometimes we record our calls because we all we just be fun to do that so I was so yesterday I got um on wednesday, I shorted the mazda and I bought puts on the S M P and I um for a very simple reason, by the way, because i've been long for the last day a few months.

I just I just I was straight long, no shorts but when I saw the fix go from twenty four down to fourteen um like, well, you know what this is time is like brave ed when he goes like hole hole and he goes now so well on wednesday you know had to fixed twice fourteen so I I bought puts and I shorter than that that and then you know this morning I cover the izz and I sell the puts just before we started know they doubled in two days and I was done two percent but you know the funny part was yesterday um there was a story out that but that they will remove the seven and a half thousand dollar E V rebate for electric cars so with china, with power i'm like, do i'm showing tesla and he was like, i'm sure in tesla too great that so so we we sure tesla the stock is done a few percent um I call him in them like I ping him in the morning in the premarket when he was down one percent and i'm like palo I covered tesla and he's like, dude. What you talking about we just did IT yesterday. Oh, that's okay.

That's fine. And then IT opens up two percent and I call him up polo. I'm shorting testing again. Meanwhile, piles with his kids in the museum like, I think he had some he had some bad duties as morning is like a man I just just sticking with IT .

yeah you you're even more kind of uh, frequent trader than parallel, which is say a lot okay. So let's talk a little bit about your general theme of how you see this playing out. Um one of the things I hope you're okay with me sharing this, I was lucky enough to see one of your presentations and you talked about new video sucking all the liquidity at the market, if you could i'd love you if you could share with our listeners your theory nova NVIDIA.

Uh, my favorite topic. So the title of that presentation uh, was and video must die, if you remember. So so basically, you know, the story goes like this.

Most of the two thousand and twenty three and twenty twenty four IT felt like IT was a giant vertex with vision, the center and the liquidity from the rest of the market was just getting sucked into in video. And if you look at the numbers, they're very scary like what drives flows in the video share Price because, you know, I broke this down. I I wanted understand the flows because in video has like fifty billion a daily turnover.

And to give you an idea that, that fifty billion, it's five times more than microsoft, is three times more than apple and it's even two times more than bitcoin. So that's why I really want to understand how the liquidity I call IT, the liquid vertex, because, you know, think about that, the russia trades six billion. So so that liquidity was going into a video that grew to like a threat, a half trillion company.

And when you break down the flows, IT becomes very interesting. So if you think about IT this way and videos is like six seven percent of the S M P and the nasdaq. So for every hundred box you put into the S M P passive six, seven box, for every hundred goes to video.

Actually like it's actually amazing because you know, you always have like this old guy saying, well, I know I can imagine I can picture and old man sing I mean, a very conservative basic port follows like, yeah do you know every hundred box you put go at seven box goes to NVIDIA, right? So so that's that's number one. So I don't the fifty billion a daily turnover and video about ten percent comes from that passive, which is pretty, pretty amazing.

But then another ten percent comes from all these leverage tps there out there. Um so the three times in vidia two times a socks three times and as like two times as like whatever is so you mean so already have like twenty percent of the daily flows. Then you look at the option volume and video, which is insane. And if you delta just that I think is I came up like IT twenty percent like ten billion a day yeah .

so that's like .

twenty percent of the total. And videos flow is option related, which is very short term. So that leaves you with only like sixty percent remaining in the hands of what could be human, but is mostly algos, right?

So so my argument was basically that you have the world's most important stock, which is acting like a giant casino. So it's driven by speculative flows, which is more a kind to cypher than the max seven. Like I said, you know IT trades five times more than microsoft.

So so from that perspective, um you know twenty percent is option driven, ten percent is passive, ten percent is like liberty tf. And from the sixty percent that's left, you know how god knows how much of that is algos. So so it's big, so it's a giant casino.

So the argument is so the question is what if if you know how do we get those spect flows to stop going yellowing and video and start going yellow into the rest of the market? right? So okay. So my so my conclusion was because i'd believe in the rotation, like the rotation into other parts of the economy.

So for that rotation to work, it's like invidia, it's to die first or stop acting like a casino because, you know the rotation trade is is a very important one for the trump trade, like I think it's the number one trump trade, right? We're rotating to many different parts. Um we're rotating from the simplest st way to visualize the rotation, by the way, is the long rustle shortage, ed. That's the simply way of visualizing IT, right? And that racial is still like at a you know thirty year low .

almost right. But it's had a great move that you actually caught and you highlighted how you had a great state about the the performance of that. That ratio over the last little while is you know basically been Better than only max seven.

Yeah absolutely. So it's been .

great on that.

Um and then so the rotation has started. But if you look at IT, if we want to step back and just be a bit more long term because I think that you know IT helps me. That's what I do IT, by the way, because IT like, you know, like like I said the earlier, like being a day trading monkey, sometimes you've got to step back and just, you know, think of the big picture, right?

So so that's why, that's why I forced myself to ride the, by the way. So if you if you step back and just look at the chart of the rustle versus national deck and just look at what happened in two thousand. So in two thousand, that ratio was up.

I think I went from zero point one two, zero point five, so four times. So you might like three, four hundred percent being long run short mazda from two thousand and two thousand. Three, i'm going to say three, four.

So what i'm saying here is imagine we're sitting together. We're having the market, hoddle, in two thousand, and we start discussing about rotation. And you know someone's listening and is like a man that's never gonna happen because you know what? Everyone's buying cisco.

So you know what if like you have to ask yourself, what if what if we were in that point where something changes and we have that rotation going? And you know what what is needed for that rotation to happen? Well, i'll tell you what is needed um the red wave definitely helps right right? So the red way ve definitely health because the rules is in the really economy, which also benefits from the regulation. And then on the nex side, well, those are massive flows that benefit under you know the previous of administration that might not benefit so much under the new administration yeah for example and then you know let's not put aside we have anyone discussed on the mentals of A I because you know who knows uh nowadays but um but you know I was told that semiconductors are semiconductors are not sec anymore. So well.

what's even Better that I love is china is not investig because they're gone to invade iwan yet. You gotta be bolted like, you know, deep in terms of long media.

of course. And by the way, and video is a stock that uh you know I have this charge where just in the just only listens two thousand seven IT had its uh share Price dropped twice up more than fifty percent only listen two thousand and seventeen and it's a very simple thing how um I think you've seen my child, you know you prove the revenue growth and video once the once growth slows down in semin in NVIDIA.

And in fact in any semon ductor, the moment that growth slowed down, the share prize drop fifty percent and IT happened during the cypher bubble IT happened during cove IT. And it's gonna happen during A I because, you know, I compared this a lot to the commodity, uh, space because IT is a know semiconductor. Ors are our commodity.

I mean, video a is a great company, no question. But you know at some point there's only so many G P, S you can buy and there's a you know at some point, we max out. I don't know if it's onna be next year or the year after, but when IT does happen, that's how you get that massive rotation being reinforced.

Yeah but I completely agree and I look at standing dunk Miller, he sold all is that guy knows a thing or two about investing. I'm going to be ond standing drug Miller side instead of all the people that are buying the video here telling me it's I can't .

lose exactly I may imagine like you have a guy like that yeah yeah.

Like whose side do you want to be on there? Yes, he's what you know he mouse some good work know positive words still about IT. He's not going to shoot all already beliefs in IT but he believes it's also act too expensive.

That's long, short IT. alright. The other thing I love to chat about is politian platinum.

You are actually really, really knowledgeable about IT. I'd love to hear your story. You know, your thoughts on that. And also given that we now have this trump situation and maybe our relationship with russia might change, how does that affect your previous you know thoughts on stadium and planum?

Yeah so i'm a platinum from the a supply and demand side. So there you know just just to simplify IT. So you know IT, eventually we we do have currency debasement.

And I just found that platinum m was the cleanest way of expressing IT from the commodities de because um it's trading near the cost of production so that the nine fifty at that Price， the producers are actually kind of like break even summer most summer losing a little bit of money as well. So you know when I buy commodity at a break even Price, I I usually do okay. So that's that.

That's that. Then on the top of that, you have platinum trading at a you know sixty five percent discount to the gold Price, which is the highest ever. So you have that potential opposite from the pressure side.

Um and then on the supply story, there hasn't been any growth and supply for the last ten years. So it's incredible what's was going on there um and that uh you know it's just becoming harder to get more plate and more platt amount of the ground. On the demand side, people were getting beat up because of the electric of vehicle story. But in reality, the only segment of cars that is growing in the eua noise are hybrids and hybrids actually take a bigger loading of platinum m than Normal ice vehicles.

So can you explain that is actually I remember that comment and I didn't understand .

that how that could be yeah because um you know the hybrid have two engines so they just go from I count of what the technicality was. So I think this because I have the two engines so they take a bigger loading uh to go from a to b uh I I think it's ten percent bigger loading from a Normal car and and just .

to understand, in the old days um the player was used more for the diesel catalytic converters my rect right. okay. So that's why if you're bullish on these plugging hybrid electric vehicles, it's not really gonna political story. It's going to be applied them story. So correct yeah okay o so you can not .

yeah I mean, that's the story so far that basically you have you know what I like, what my first boss used to say, which I I think I really stuck with me, is you know you take care of the downside and the upside will take care of itself yeah. So with platinum, the way I see IT is this, you know given the Price action last few weeks is actually traded like pretty crap.

I mean, it's kind of like this flat line, but I just owned something that's I don't sit downside from nine fifty, maybe goes to nine hundred. Okay, fine. But you know if you have like a longer term view, um you know you don't lose you it's hard for me to lose money owning platform.

That's how I see IT. I don't know when it's gna go up or when is gonna work, but you know the one thing that's a bit meeting because you know I just love looking at memes and you know I need like a funny catalyst to get to get excited. So one thing that did get excited me was when costco put the platte enim bars, uh yeah for sale.

That was actually the best thing that happens a platinum in my view because they got me excited a bit. So if you look at when costco did the same for gold, so costco added gold bars in the summer of last year and they nailed IT like gold had a forty percent run. So I was joking that, you know, people are wondering why costa trades at fifty times p versus walmart thirty or something.

Well, that's why. Because the best traders, so you know they they nailed the gold prize. So I was hoping, you know what, since they're a platting bars, maybe they a lay h, maybe they um uh nail the platinum Price too so yeah I .

hear yeah that is an interesting thing. While we're talking about gold, you want to kind of you know give us your two sense of what's happening and .

yeah I was actually getting yeah I was actually getting embarrass gold on the election day um because you can't need that fat that just purely, purely technically ignoring about the the reality of the world OK. Um so purely technically, the gold was trading like the vicks in a way.

So I was trading like geopolitical hedge plus vix, plus uncertainty like people were buying gold in cases were rides in the street of trump hod elected or if camera rig the election. So so I thought goal should should have sold off on the election and I was flushed of not to take the short because the psychologically it's tough to short gold. Yes yeah yeah because you you kind of yeah you're going against the monetary system the way very enough and .

you're also kind of shorting disaster, right? Yeah something happens overnight .

like yeah yeah so I don't like doing that. So anyway, so I went down. So short term, I think it's a negative set up. Um I think even if if you actually believe what the trump administration is going to do, I can actually imagine gold you know just flat lining at like twenty four hundred twenty five hundred for a bit because speaking of dr. Miller, I was actually listening to uh to basons um uh podcasts, uh presentations. You know just listen to how they think about the fiscal deficit and you know you have to take IT with a grain of soul that if they actually do whatever, like if they get three percent deficit, then of course go is gna go down. But yes.

so but calling me the best into is currently the front runner for the treasury secretary is actually more of fiscal hawk that people understand or the people recognize yeah and also.

look, I was listened to him now and he he was referencing the three arrows policy of of aby OK, the japanese experimentally. So the area was basically like, uh, aggressive monetary policy, aggressive fiscal policy and the regulation structural changes. So he was saying, he was saying I would do the same in the U.

S. And I and my three arrows would be three percent real growth. Three percent is IT and three million extra barrels of oil production in the U. S. And that's i'm going to bring inflation down because the .

main driver inflation okay. But isn't he also though a fiscal hawk and that he wants to get the deficit down yet by spending? Yeah I wasn't represent growth was three IT exactly.

So that's that's why it's like it's three percent real growth yeah and but he gets inflation down by adding three million barrels of oil in the us. Construction and he gets the deficit down to three percent a year.

I see i'm sorry.

Yeah I I don't know. But his argument was he will cut spending on everything except defense. And actually, I thought that was really, really interesting and he by the way, he he's a brilliant guy like I really recommend people listen to what he's saying in cache. Um he gets the role you know he was saying that um there's only been six reserve cards in the world and one thing they had in common is what they they were all six all the six reserve currencies were from the security forces of the time. So the british empire, the projects and you are saying, well, the example of spain was interesting because you know spain lost the reserve status when they became became excessively indeed, and they couldn't pay the military, right? So he's saying we need to have a strong military if we're gonna keep the reserve status.

okay.

So I thought, well, look at that's interesting. And then going back to our new hat, make ambiguity great again. At the same time, he was discussing that he was also discussing you know about a new plaza accord and that the strong dollar is actually uh, part of the problem with so go so it's the ambiguity, right? So yeah you can not like we're talking about tariff.

Uh and that's why I think you and I agree on the on on the face two of the situation here on something like the yen because you know you you're talking about tariffs and there is a um you know but then you you can't just have tariff s you also need to control your fiscal spending and you also need to manage the your currency. You know if you're the reserve currency, you're getting a lot of uh, structural flows IT by definition, right right? Although to be fair.

you could still be the structure of in the present currency and not have a strong currency correct goes.

I think that people I think that's try to get right .

like the reality is the reserve currency is the currency everyone transacts and holds doesn't mean that IT always has to go up, but just easier when it's going up because everyone once .

told IT yeah exactly. So I think that I think that's that's a very great is a great point because he was saying the importance of security.

yeah.

that the U. S. Needs a strong military. But though he was also saying, but you know, we actually, uh, and he said he studied the you know the past past accords on the stuff, well, you might need one of that and he actually said, I think I think he said I would like to be part of IT because he started, he started the previous ones and he said I would like to be part of the .

next one so he actually, all right, said there is a need for a plastic type accord yeah think so.

I think he was in the um um sea span presentation yeah so that like it's while though .

you know step we got people rushing into U S. dollars.

Well, so here's the thing because once you realize it's all nononsense, that starts to make sense. But I think I I think that's why I I love this market. And I think you know the, like the micro trace that are gonna come out of face tour, I think you gonna be great.

So like the face one trump trade was really easy. The face one trump trade for me was really easy. I was long presence.

I was long, funny me. And, you know few things here and there. I wasn't long test, unfortunately, because I worked out well.

But you know the face two is a bit more on the microsite. It's a bit more new new yeah uses that I would say like for the dollar, for example. Yeah I get the argument for a strong dollar based on what they tell you.

But you know, step back and let's ignore the u because the u has no chance. So let OK. I think you, as a canadian me is a europe. Or we can just say, you know what?

Let's not talk about the cat. The first curses decided to get together and have a bodye.

Actually, we're missing a brit. We're missing a brit on the he would get the crown straight out.

I don't know. We're going to give them a real run force money, i'm pretty sure. Okay.

so ign those three three and then click the yen because I said that one of the trades for face two is actually on the end yeah so I agree. Let's let's let's think about uh, the situation. So back in the summer of twenty twenty, uh, four, so back in july, trump made an interview in the and bloomberg blomberg magazine and he specifically said that the japanese are ripping as off and their current they're manipulating their currency and their currency is too weak and this is what the chinese are doing too but know the japanese doing yeah.

he's not wrong and he's not wrong.

He's a hundred percent right. Yeah.

so good for them. They're figured that out they're going to they're going to suck up all of they can and told they get told they can do IT and then they are going to revalue IT.

Yeah, of course, of course. So so the japanese have been this quiet because in other soap.

the polite, I do polis so polite, so polite. And also think, sorry, yeah.

it's so polite. So no, like, like everyone attacks the poor chinese. Like the chinese are going through a proper know housing crisis, going to like depression, and everyone calls them out on the currency mean.

Meanwhile, the japanese are quietly devaluing. Yes, they're having growth. They are enjoying themselves so much with their exports.

Yeah, the second best performing economy in the world is awesome.

And meanwhile, they devalued their currency verses the end by what? Like thirty, the one so I thirty percent or the .

they really did, wasn't just against the U. S. Was against one.

No one calls them out, right? yeah. So trump calls them out. And I remember the time a few people were a little bit of, you know, show those. I go, look his, he's called them out.

And what happened two weeks later, the yen, the yen pire strikes back. So IT was IT was like, IT was the yen magian. How do we were going to call IT like the yen? Magian, yeah, yeah.

Two weeks later in August was when the yen went from like a one fifty five puk to one forty drove down the nk like thirteen percent, uh, or seventeen percent and the the as that was down five percent. And I remember on that day when crammer said that the market is not yet oversold. I will never forget that so was like minus five percent every market. I will never forget that. And he said the market is not yet oversold than as that was down like thirteen, the the nicky was down like their tempers or something like that.

So anyway, so that was the that was the that was when the yen pute IT was actually two weeks after, uh, the bloomberg interview of trump right now my conservatory and you know that my pronounce are I told you so is you know that had something to do with IT? Uh, maybe maybe did, maybe I didn't, but who knows? But anyway, so this guy is now president. yeah.

What's the chance that he doesn't call him out again in the next six months I reckon is like a it's almost a done deal like he's gonna call them out on IT because the whole point yeah because the whole point of how tariff s work and the way they phrase them, if you read what they're saying is they're telling you that onna do them like in a layer uh, different levels and according to how how much you play ball as a country. So of course, the chinese are gonna get the worst deal, right, because they're chinese. But you know the japanese, they need to like if if they come out and just offer something, then I reckon you they are going to a they're not going to anna, get like a terrible tariff package.

That's why I think the yen is actually good long. And I I do with options because actually like to sleep at night and I don't want I don't like to see the funny moves in the end. So I just like an option out in march, not investment advice. This is a shrub crying out like actually. But but you know you know the funny thing is but but the one caveat I say, like you know I called the August episode the the yen pire strikes back, okay, and that was the empty strikes bag was a great star wars .

film or is the best one.

is the best .

one exit least I .

think so yeah, so there's there's a little bit of a problem. I think we're gonna get more yen episodes, uh, similar in the similar way that we're getting more towards episodes. But you notice that the stowers episodes are just getting worse and worse as they go along.

Like not like the original, right? Every stars episode is just not like the original. So i'm comparing that the yen episodes we're gonna get from this point on words.

I just not gonna be like the original. So so we're gone to get like about we're going to get moves, but we're not going to get that one fifty five to one forty and two weeks. Um I don't think so. If we do, you know we'll give thanks. But um but I sure .

you are about that. I think right now there's no rush for them. They don't need to go in the reason of and selling office.

Like why go before he gets into power and fix your problem? Like in fact, you almost wanted to be ugly as looking as possible so that you can then go, oh, you know what? We moved from one sixty to one thirteen.

What we've already improved IT for you, like one C K, but i'm not as sure as you in listening is going to pend on light. Like here's another question for you, mention vent. Do you think light houser is plays a prominent role somehow in the administration? And what do you think that means from an economic or you know micro perspective? No.

I don't know. Actually do you have a beyond that? Well.

I think he I think that if he's not an official um member, he's definitely has the president year. And I think that one of the things that back to your make a ambiguity great again is the fact that people don't realize is that you can help the little guy like trump promised or you can help markets. They don't go together as much as everyone .

thinks they thing. That's the thing you, I agree.

stand their argument. They go, oh, what we're going to deregulate or deregulate everything and then the markets going to do great in baba. I understand that.

I don't think that they really comprehend. The fact is that if you listen a lighthouse er, he doesn't have um markets or the economy at the front of his agenda. He has kind of the well being of workers. And I think that if you actually use that as the guide post, you'll see that there's a much different outcome. And I really believe that if you think that you're trying to get the trade deficit down, which I think is part of their agenda, that I don't think you can have a trade deficit that is down and also have a premium paid for us financial assets. That's the ambiguity that I see in their in their policies.

Yeah, I I think we should really be going with this theme going forward because it's it's a really interesting way of thinking around about IT, like because I was actually thinking of the yen itself and is like, well, he says one thing and the market is doing another thing and and this is this is where the opportunities will be in the next four years. You know what I mean.

micro ros is going to be awesome IT really the get this is the biggest change. Like I have this chart that included shrub and I showed terrorists for the last two hundred years. It's a barkley chart and IT just goes down, down, down.

And then you see, like in the one thousand nine hundred and sixties, that basically goes to zero. And then all of the senate earth, like one percent or something as a tiny number. And the only thing you see, this thing where trump is proposed, twenty percent. And i'm like, holly, should this has changed everything that we know like this, is this is something we've spent you. And almost everyone investing has spent their lives under a regime where there's no tails yeah .

and yeah and now all then .

it's going to be countries all over the place placing terrorists. It's gonna, trade wars, protectionism, deals done here and there and stuff like that.

Me, wild. yeah. I I actually A W cyprus, we actually had tariff s when I was a kid and the you would be surprised by how weird the market was.

For example, we had a massive, a massive terms on foreign cheese to support the cheese and industry in cyprus because know we make hello, my chees, which to be onest. It's the best cheese in the world. Anyway.

you could.

how do going to try this? Because you can fly IT or you can .

need IT raw. So what are you going on?

Yeah, of course.

man, don't even i'm such nab. I'm just like know typical canadian in chatter whatever.

So put in put IT on the barbet you next time you're having a barbecue ah it's a great starter.

okay?

That's actually the most value out of given today on the show.

Okay, to go on about your depressed, but but we would .

only at hello I because IT was like in another type of cheese because there was no imports that was really literally like no cheese coming in from the country except with greece, which was a trading partner uh or foreign cars uh you know luxury cars had a massive duty, so there was like a hundred percent plus on the luxury cars. We also had capital controls, but that's a different stories.

Well yeah went back to the eighties and in some way um and it's going to be very, very interesting. Oh, by the way, there was a really good paper that came out by Stephen miran. He's on twitter. Stephen miran used to work at the fed and he did this paper on tariff and he made this really interesting comment about tariff. He said, when you sit down on the table to do a trade o you will have different levels of terrorists, but you know, you should probably tell the your trading partners to show commitment and instead of buying bills, get them to buy century bonds. Think about IT.

Yeah, I hear you to enforced people about .

the curve and you imagine that he's going to do what.

although if he does that, unfortunately, the curves gna trade fairly steep out there. And I suspect that he's going to he's gonna too short side that I believe to do that because I think he's going to strong ARM the fed. And I know everyone tells me, no, no, no, it's not going to happen. I think you ever eventually he's like, you know he's already said, you know palka pot like it's only onna get worse from here like he's got he's he once zero percent front rates or .

very low but you know what's amazing is like just the mention of trump um has put so many people. Uh on the defensive straight away like today, the german chancellor, he set up a call with putin after two years like he spoke with putting today yeah no.

Listen, there's there's a million things like that that this actually might force we should all over europe. This might actually force europe to finally, geno, do fiscal stimulus. Well.

I would hope so, because europe right now, we didn't even talk about IT. Okay.

so let's make this our final topic, how crude is.

Europe completely is screwed. K, so because, you know, i'm a european and I mean, I, I, I love europe, you know, I live here.

You send me great pictures of the beach.

Yeah, it's a look. It's a beautiful place.

Wonderful people try that.

Yeah, great people. Great food. We can find. Hello, ian, many different types of chees. But I mean, they're just being claros like you see how how they are reacting to trump and they're reacting in a negative way instead of a wake up call. IT should be a wake up call.

Thank you for good example。 Give me an example of what you mean by that.

So i'm gonna give you an example with a meme. So because I preferred, yeah, exactly. I prefer to communicate with means, uh, you know, have this category of means that make money.

But you know, maybe this one is one of the matter. no. So so you have on, you have on the one side, space ex, like space ex, they literally, they caught a rocket with chopsticks.

right?

That's american innovation. And on the other side, you have a plastic bottle in the u and we literally, we tied up the cap with a little connection, a plastic connection, so that the cap stays to the bottle for recycling purposes, which makes IT extremely annoying to actually drink from the bottles because you have this cap sticking on.

like touching your lips, like a stay.

like it's a yes. So imagine you're on screen. The cap of a plastic bottle is .

like a water boat for when you go to the gym. Or .

what if he does? IT doesn't come off. It's attached to IT on the side.

We don't trust people to put to put IT back on after exactly so and .

it's annoying and IT doesn't close well and it's just frustrating. And i'm like and I compared that to be to the european and innovation. So on one side, you know and I I can I can just picture in my mind hundreds of european policymakers discussing the bloody cap and just pending hours on IT on the parliament to discuss the bloody cap. So that's why i'm just laughing is like you have american nova on on one side and you have european innovation on the other side.

okay. Can I push back a little bit on that? Um let's just take boeing. Airbus, and I might argue this is the result of capitalism gone, taken to extremes with flowing. They were focused more so on profits than safety and and they actually managed to turn what was once a terrific envy of the world company into a disaster. And I know know we we get people like in our trading groups all the time, say, you know, i'll see you guys later, i'm flying boeing and like joke in that they're not onna be here in there or they're like think gotto got an airbus. So there is an example of you know something where europe actually .

works yeah and actually I got you brought the boy example because IT shows something has really gone wrong in the western world um and i've discuss this uh extensively with a few people is like we're losing we're losing the skill base we have yes and that is a very scary thing. Like in the boring example I was reading how um you know they were firing um seasoned um seasoned workers to keep the Younger guys.

But who's gona trade the Younger guys if the season workers are out? Yeah right. So for example, you know, I I yeah so I I was actually looking at this other example there, this this company I think I think is called hunting.

And I go where is called something along those lines that makes submarine for the U. S. army.

okay? And they had a big profit warning because um the the welders couldn't do their job properly. So they yeah remember that. So IT was a complete joke like you have well, you couldn't they couldn't find wilders experience. Wilders, so they had the uh so they had a lot of issues with with that and IT cost a ton of money. So boeing has the same problem is you have you have an nadia coming from the kinzie excuse excuse the the set up, but i'm just trying to pick you IT here.

So you have like management consultants coming in and the management is probably there are themselves management consulting, so they actually don't know anything about the world and they say, so we got to cut ten thousand people, like what we're going to cut or we're going to cut like the fifty year olds, the in the yard like, no, you idea that's the guys you have to keep because they going to be, the guys gonna train someone to actually produce for sure. Like for some, anyone who worked in the construction industry Better way would know that IT takes you like three to five years for a junior to work next to a next one. Experienced workman, to actually pick up skills, right?

The reason why these people don't get IT because, you know, i'm at fall here as well, like you know, the finance world I call IT the posy world, because, you know, people don't really have a skill, like the managment consultation, they don't really have skills or you know the bankers, they don't really have skills and you know they come and see these things and they see that if someone can view the thing, well, the summary and well, it's gonna you like six months to do IT, right? If I spend like three years at oxford, i'm sure that some guy can, well, the submarine and like six months. So I I think they have this stupid mentality.

And that's a really big problem, uh, for the manufacturing industry. And that's gona be a really big problem going forward for the manufacturing renaissance of the us. Let me let me give you one anecdote as well.

actually. Um I spoke to two people to entrepreneurs. One was trying to move a very big tech business in the us.

And they couldn't do IT because they couldn't find, uh, experienced personnel, right? That was one of them. The second one, which was even more weird, he has a factor in the U.

S. And he was saying that their workers, uh, we're suffering because of inflation and they had to do two or three works. So so he was saying, and IT craig, a big problem because, first of all, we cannot find workers. And secondly, the ones we have, they're coming home. They're coming to the office tired because, you know.

if the guys is doing over or at night, three, sorry.

and finishes A A shift of the factor that he goes to do an uber or work at night somewhere .

but I always kind of a mad about that that like capitalist, i'll say, oh, the Price is the clearing Price that you know that's so important that's what the that's the basis of our old economy. And then the moment that the workers gained some leverage and actually know you find that people are competing for workers, they get all mad about that. Unlike, listen, you believe in free markets, you need workers pay up for the workers like this is me off and I know a bringing this back to your idea about the problems with, you know, the us. In terms of this lack of skills. And I don't think copy would mind me sharing the story with you with everyone you might have hurt IT from copy is the fact that he says it's tough to, you know, get great engine at boeing when you know the great engineers coming on a stand further or whatever going to, you know, make their own dog walking up and make a fortune.

I agree with him one hundred percent because i'm an engineer as well, right? Yeah so i'm an engineer. I imagine coming from cyprus, I go to oxford. I get a good degree. Uh and you I offered more working and investment banking than .

any other engineering .

job years ago.

It's way, but it's going to technology. And the real problem is the technology that were specializing in, although you might argue it's gotten Better recently with the eve of A I up until you know, a year or two ago, most of IT was focused on social media apps. I absolutely useless stuff.

And I think that our body, lewy gav, will will talk about this. He says, you know, in china, the best are coming and they're working on the best. Engineers are working on things that actually make the first society more productive. And here are more focused on the social media apps like, you know, the reality is that we have all these people working for meta or google or whatever IT is, and we should be having more than working at boeing trying to make Better planes.

But that's a problem. I think I think that's a problem that actually, if the new administration is gna make me hopeful, this is something they should tackle. So there is a very simple, uh, thing.

So the tiktok algorithm shows you control you different stuff. So in china, the tiktok algorithm shows them videos about science and useful things. And the U. S shows you stupid dogs and cats and yeah you know, silly videos. So you ask a kid in china what they want to be when they grow up and it's like A I think it's astronaut engineer is top of the list where as you ask a kid in the U S. What they want to be, they want to they're na tell you a youtube r or a influence yeah yeah so .

maybe a shrub or a so that we are .

well but the trouble about .

that is that I believe that the tiktok um people that the finance in U. S. Are actually beholding their trumpets, beholding to them. Thank you. Thank you.

Make can be guity great again. right? It's the same thing.

I so back to back to europe because we didn't fit ish people going to the U N. And tangent. And so do they haven't any hope? And do you think that, that what do you think is required?

I personally think it's more fiscal spending that they actually to start, you know doing things properly that way. And do you have any hope that is going to a occur? And do you think that there's any investment possibilities on the long side of china, us or europe in the coming year or two? Well.

bizarre. I'm actually long um i'm never long in european stuff and I have about ten percent of mice book in europe bizarre because I got some stuff that are so cheap now like cheaper like super cheap stuff.

Um they're too small .

and I haven't written them up yet, but let me let me just give you i'll give you brief one so know brief one is. Uh you know there there's A A payments company that's trading IT like mid single digit itp, so like below five times earnings. And there's no payment company out there that trades that like you know you compared to the brazilian ones, even I trained at six seven or you know I have something else. It's a special situation that i'm by now where you know the enterprise value is zero, uh, literally like the cash against the market cap is zero. It's a gar.

But today, yeah but I mean, he didn't really find .

these things before in europe but now because no one really cares about IT anymore um that's where you are and by the way, you don't know speaking of boing, i'm actually long boying okay.

So let's finish for .

that why you yeah no I mean it's it's it's quite interesting because there's a narrative story. Well, the the the bookcase about boy is actually that everyone loves a good restructuring story.

right? okay.

So I I see as an eventuate um they basically so let me give you A A simple one. So era space in general has some really good restructuring stories. So role choice, they did that IT stock when up four five times.

Gera based at the same stock up when up four five times. Um and boeing is the mother of potential restructure stories. And because i'm an event driven guy, I thought the placing they did where they raise a lot of money to to clean up a bit was a cleansing moment.

Um but the caveat is that those two restructing stories I told you took two years to play out, right? So this is the part of my brain that has to separate out the trading versus the longer term stuff. So boeing is something that I bought for the longer term.

Having said that, air bus is doing really, really well um which is is interesting but you know just just going back to europe uh because europe for me it's it's close to my heart and I think what IT needs um I was hoping for draggy to take over president because draggy was a very strong force uh in a positive way to to push for that fiscal a stim that and that that unification because we're not unified in the monetary way in any way, right? Um so that's one. The number two is we actually have a strong immigration problem and the immigration site has to finish the number three, which I think is really, really important and underestimated.

I want to see the ukrainian, they were in ukraine, finish to be bullish europe. When that finishes, then you can, then I am gonna become, i'm going to become, publish europe. If IT finishes, they are, even if they finish now and they just draw the border.

Because let's put this way, you look at the power Prices of the U. S. verses. The u.

Oh yeah, crazy.

It's insane. yeah. So we cannot have manufacturing in germany anymore.

You cannot have manufacturing in the U. K. Anymore as they spend.

You know, they they were relying on russian gas and now just stuck with the solar panels in germany where there is never any sun, right? Great job, guys. So after .

closing their nuclear stuff.

yeah. So you want to see that war finish. Because that that is right at our at our doorstep. And actually, what really got me sad about europe is that, you know, I have a lot of american friends that, uh, you know, they think that amErica should be giving money to ukraine.

And you know it's been a waste of money and know this is the current administration a sense as well, I guess. Yeah but in reality, and I don't blame them, but the european ones shouldn't be saying that because you're literally it's a war right at your doorstep, right? And it's affecting you.

It's affecting you in many ways, including your energy like you had an energy, you don't have energy security, you know, because of IT. So it's a very important thing that the europeans should have thrown themselves too, not in a world world type situation, but is like just being serious about IT, right? Instead of being uh you know nonsensical and trying not to offend, put in all that stuff so so I think this is a very important thing uh, to know and just put on the back of your mind got IT .

and he one last thing. In terms of boeing, I would argue that IT is critical. You know you mention scotland and the military point of view. IT is critical from a security point of view that the us.

Has an airplane, manufactures a strong .

yeah hundred percent.

I think it's uh it's essential yeah uh and also number two is I think boeing is gonna a very big winner from any future trade deals because you know imagine trump goes to arabia and he doesn't trade you. I'm just using an example. Yeah what's the biggest thing you can you can tell .

someone and twenty one percent listen. And is the same thing like to me. I feel like boeing has to work. I just don't know the stock Price when IT will work. But from a company point of view, IT is too integral to amErica for to not to work.

I agree. So look you have a stock that beaten up is down forty person years ah, it's one hundred billion everyone's going to buy like I don't understand why buffer t didn't buy a stake.

for example, well or why they didn't do one of those preferred things yeah where they know all of the set in the buffer seal of approval. You, you, you give them some convert that is expensive money. But the reality is that the expensive that money makes up for with the stock Price going .

higher yeah and look, buffet owns precision cast parts and I think precision um was a very dependent on boeing, is very dependent on boeing. So if I were him, i'm surprised he didn't take a staking IT. But here you go. I think maybe happens, you know why not I I D might be more .

more economy in the flesh in the market and that he thinks he might get a cheaper, he might get IT in a crisis, may be the face that he's got a lot of cash. okay. I rub, it's been a pleasure having you we're not going to let you off though without getting you your opinion on a triple b, as I like to call IT. And this is a new band, a new book, our new broadcast. And a broadcast could be a podcast, could be T, V show, could be whatever you want that you ve recently stumbled upon this gathered you're interest and you're kind of obsessed to.

yeah, yeah, you're gna go crazy with this. So when I rode my thing on the yen, yeah, I was, I was at the gym afterwards and in popped on my playlist a song called yen by wait for IT sleep not not joking.

They have .

a stone called in and and and then when I am like, oh my god, I got excited and because i'm like, well, I just I just wrote a peace long yeah so that's like, this is this is really bullishly in I I was read into IT like, I mean, I just literally popped on my playlist and I slip.

oh my great .

and then. Could listen to this the worst part, though. And then when you read the lyrics slow, you're like, oh my god, I think I got in the wrong trade. It's like you're at the scene. E that i've been waiting for hands around my throat. So i'm like, uh, god, so when I when I I read that like i'm only onna stick to puts, i'm only gonna put the premium I can afford to lose and that's IT .

h that's okay. So basically the slip, not song, is made you scared of the trade. That's basically what .

happened yeah because the last he even has a line in IT that .

says .

I died for you oh so so i'm like, you know what okay? That's IT limiting the premium to x percent of mi portfolio and that's IT so that that actually, that song popped up and I just made me a risk manage my expectations in my performed a you don't .

need a risk manager, you just need the spotify serving up the right songs. All right job. I wanted to tell people about where they they wanted to chat with you or wanted to learn about your stuffer subscribed to your terrific letter where they find you.

Yeah so um i'm on twitter. I'm the shrub and then I write the sharp stack which is W W W dot shrub stack dot come um where I uh write whenever there's something to write about and IT IT is my trading diary and I try to make IT fun because, you know, we need to laugh, especially in the market like this. We got we have to have a uh sense of humor right.

right? And listen. Um it's absolutely terrific. Not often can you get somebody of your quality that sharing their thoughts. And so I just want to thank you for from that perspective and thank you again for being on the show and taking time for us. And I really appreciated thank you so much.

Has been a pleasure.

All right, Patrick, is time for talking charts. It's a good one. You got a lot to say, imagine.

but let's dive in but because like yeah, there's just times. Okay, let's quickly go through the top three things we are watching. Obviously, european financial .

plumbing related on started I was like I was like .

huge movement over there but there .

ah and the plumbing is no issue. I was wrong.

okay. So F O M C uh and um I mean in the end, uh what's interesting I should post comments just the uh uh uh the other day.

yeah, he actually move markets more yesterday than here during the phone.

M, C, right? Because he he had a bit of a howk ish tony, 然后 just quickly pull this up。 But like you can see here on the fed, uh, watch it's now like a thirty seven percent, thirty percent chanca doesn't move yeah plus that was that was a sure cut like that was like a what A A month ago I was that was baked for the end yeah well.

shit. Three months ago or six months ago, I think there might have been a chance of fifty in there. absolutely. And how tim can change .

you think you think is purely um uh just that the economics just keep the .

number is ah my favorite one is the economic the city bank ic surprise index. The reason I like that is because it's showing you versus expectations how the numbers are coming in. And so if I look at the city bank economic surprise and just pulling up back in August, IT was minus forty four, meaning that the numbers were coming in worse than everyone expected.

It's gone. We just take to a new high or forty four. Well, you know, we've around trick from minus forty four to positive forty four. And by the way, if you want something that actually is a coincidental indicator of yields, follow this because you can just overlay the two eyes, move off. What what is IT implying the yields?

Well, so the thing .

about IT is it's not implying anything going forward because it's what is saying is if you want to explain why moves or yields are moving up, it's because economic numbers are coming in Better than expected. Now you say that makes sense, like you you kind of think IT through, but it's just like you overlay these two charts and they just they're most perfect.

There you are. It's a number one. Uh, was the election and uh, the you know whether I was under Price or not, the market got exactly what they were pricing. I mean that but I was well.

so I so I actually disagree a little bit because I think that you know at first I like, oh, the markey was expected trump in. They got what they thought. I don't know if the market was expecting such a dramatic wind. Yeah, but the thing but the problem is.

is a dramatic wind versus a win. If IT was either going to be a sweep or wasn't going to be a sweep. And uh, uh, if it's being a little bit more dramatic, I don't see how that dynamically changes um you know market expectation anyway, point.

I actually do think IT changes market expectations because think about this, Patrick, let's imagine IT was close. Let's imagine that we were still there was the possibility to speed or let's even imagine that he wins well. And I also think that the fact is he won the electoral college t but he also won the popular vote. And I think that gives them an extra, you know, Mandate and an ability that kind of say, no, look, the people have spoken and rightly, li, so the you know a majority of americans have voted a man. He has a Mandate to do what he wants. And I think from that perspective, I think is great in terms of whoever won is nice for them to win both the kind of the popular vote and also the the college vote because that things is worse when you have that situation where they say, oh, no, it's it's a symptom of you know system that doesn't work and stuff at least now there's no sort of like claim that he's not legitimate, is legitimate that who the americans voted in.

right? And uh, we will talk about the uh the market impact because I am much more interested. Uh and now we know the results. So what's what's next right? Like where where uh what is what is the uh you know not on effects now for the rest of year or even in the years to come from from the fact that this is the way um you know the the administration is moved, the government is moved and what are going to be the impact.

So i'll talk about a moment, one of the things that was first in the suck about the top three things to watch over the next two weeks for the remainder of november and number three, uh um I put the U. S. Dollar and I take make a cheap shop of moment no no because .

actually I agree with you, IT is important. It's hugely important. IT deserves to be in there, doesn't deserve to be in there every week like you want to put IT in, but IT deserves to be in there this week.

okay. But IT was IT was a dramatic move and IT was um IT really got started when like the extra momentum really started after uh the the election results hundred percent so but I mean he was already rich like the the bottom here we just put up here, but the bottom of the uh U S. Dollar came in uh back in actually late september in in the first days of october.

And so if you actually put IT like the the rally to happen before the elections was a four and a half point four and a half percent moves. So really the bigger part of the move, this was about a three a half percent move after the elections. So the bigger move actually came in first reflexively from A A very oversold dollar, but then definitively uh IT a ready to multiyear highs.

And so we're now traded back up to one or seven were the two thousand and twenty three highs. And now we're out of really important inflection point because, you know, this sidewise trade range is either going to remain and it's couldn't reject here or some U. S.

Dollar break. It's gna happen. And usually when na break out, not usually, almost always when to break out happens like that IT doesn't just stop in one or two weeks and IT is IT often can be the beginning of a multiple ths trend.

And so if one or seven does not become the ceiling of the dollar, uh, then is one ten, one fourteen, the highs from two thousand and twenty two and one fifteen? Or like what's the next area? And more importantly, what currency will drive IT? Like it's clearly the euro is the big one.

I got that the remain b is not in the basket which has been moving, but the euro is the one that has had the biggest by the way, this is the weekly church so we're talking the really kind of longer term ere where but the euro is been hundred percent, where the biggest uh dollar index in practice come from. And um and the question here is the euro destined for parody or even back to ninety five times? Where was back in two thousand and twenty two? Your turn? What do you thinking?

I have no view on the euro. I'm back to love in my yen and I hit my clean dollar.

You're loving your yen. okay?

I love IT. It's awesome. And I get I understand why everyone i'd like to me this is the japanese investors rushing back into the trade of buying american assets because they are convinced the trump is gone to be great for this, for for the economy from the stock market. And I think that this is an absolutely terrific set up filium. I love IT, but but i'm not OK the same .

about the but okay, but but set this up for me, okay, because you're not making a short term call? No, I will.

I will also make a short term call. Now I like I hear what you're saying like a lot times I always loving IT. It's a question of how much I love IT and I really love IT here.

I think it's awesome. So now the one reason why I think today's reversal candle is important is because the dollar hit a major resistance level after finishing these moves. So this is actually naturally where the dollar should be pulling back, and therefore all cross currencies should do well for this.

Now that means today could be where a multiple k trend happens and we could easily get back to one fifty like. And so there is a definitely, uh, a short term move that can happen. And completely logical wireless ood.

The but the bigger question is, uh, can the yen bucked the trend? If the us, look, what if the U. S. Dollar index all IT does is A A consolidation flag, which is not uncommon IT just takes a pause after hitting a major overall resistance, comes sets up and then blast to fresh highs. And with if we have a euro breaking, uh down below one or five, the dollar index above one or seven, you still believe in that environment that the again could uh kind of d couple from the natural dollar coral, uh like all cross one person hundred percent OK.

So I like you. I just hide.

I remember I .

used to talk about the currency whisper that I would chat with, and I haven't heard for me in a while. Feel listening. I'd love to hear what you're thinking about the start about the currency of that all over right now. But I got a new guy that I chat with and I got the currency gu and the currency gurr U.

I was asking him the other day because he was highlighting the fact that the japanese have mentioned that if a current if the yen moves more than ten handles in a month, that's kind of their point where they in their being, they think it's successive OK. And he also highlighted the fact that if they use the word urgency that's consider cold word for the intervention, I think we're on the cusp of intervention in the, in the end, OK. And the only thing of that kind of worries me is that if I was the japanese and I knew the truth was coming, I might want to try to get that my currency as weak as possible going into that.

I know when to get beat up by trumper later. And so I, I, I could see the situation where there are not as much of brush at fixing the problem ahead of IT because they know he's gonna beat them up about a later. And so, you know, like if you're doing IT from one sixty and so how different than doing IT from like one fifty? And right yeah so just from a purely macular ue games theory point of view, there might be less um willingness but does that .

but does that kind of troubles we want to hear you say that because then that doesn't .

that i'm basically going against what I just said. However, I do believe that this latest move in the yen is more a function of japanese rushing into the U. S.

Stock market and that's why they're doing IT. And as that stock market rules over they that the yen bid will disappear. I think that the yen is terrific value down here.

And I think it's a great way of of playing kind of a risk off more. I I can see a situation, Patrick, where the yen goes back to being a risk of currency. That hasn't happened .

a child for while that's not an expert. This we all think that this is uh to me I from a short term tactical perspective, a pull back to one fifty two or one fifty is something that I think that happened. And if you are putting on a swing trade to catch A A multitude move, there I am.

I'm with the thing that is probably a very reasonable bet. And uh but a you don't be. I think there are so many questions.

We'll talk about this. Let's not moving. Let's let's s talk number two because this is exactly what where this topic comes up.

So in the number two things to watch this, will the trump rally fade like clearly, uh, the animal spirits, like the very definition of animal spirits, was literally what a rose or in the last uh several weeks in this post election period. And um IT really was a scenario where there was monstrous anxiety over hedging. Everyone worried about all these different scenario.

And then the moment there became clarity that this wasn't going to be a shit show and that there that that there is a clear Victor and everything like this, and everyone knows what that will be, all of the trump trades instantly gapped. And there was this euphoria, and all of these traders have realized they weren't position for this. And so came the flows and the sector rotations in every, and the money kindly drove that this one week rally that drove this move.

So there was this kind of massively balancing coming in there. But now the dust is settling and the becomes, does the does that entire rally fade? Or is IT started a new trend where maybe sixty two hundred or higher is coming in on the S M P. Five hundred in in, uh you know going to let's see the U S. Thanksgiving and um and that's uh a big thing to watch so what what's your frame on the .

trump trace?

Patrick IT feels to me like this is being such a rush into IT and actually into the U. S. And actually you go look at air about tune's from blue g.

He had a lot of great stats about how much money is float into the E. F. market. It's off the church. IT is absolutely obscene. And when I see a bill act men who, by the way, I was trying to find this tweet, and I was having to go through this tweet, this kind like cheese, Chris, he does he do any actually investing anymore like the man of tweet this guy does, is unbelievable. I thought I was going to be find this and little had to score through like, you know, twenty pay ah I couldn't believe this.

He just says the business community is giddy with excitement about the real donal trun administration i'm hearing from everyone, including from people who did for trump business confidence, self fulfilling, propac's business leaders are becoming more confident yet yet. yes. okay. So i'm not disagree that this is happening, but like, let's remember this is bill ackman. Like let's think about all the times that he's gone ten up and made a very emotional statements on T V or whatever, right? Like like ah really ask yourself if you want to be buying because bill action is long, I would suggest that my point is this is very, very, very the lots of people are in uh I guess you you want me to change the subject because you're trying to get the action on macrovoice, but I probably mean that for you um.

Anyway, I think the term trade is very .

close to be done. okay.

So why? And I do have what this or I didn't mean there, but I do have things that I think our longer term are actually very bullish. I think, for example, can buy financials. I think that's watch .

yeah well, that is that is the epidemic.

The trump trade, I know, but I think there's there are elements of the truck trade .

that about about how about how about the energy trade.

Um so that is the opposite. If you really if you really kind of think that trump s is going to be corrected in the terms of drill, baby drill is actually terrible for the energy .

and rio for oil Prices. But the thing is you lower taxes and do all these different things, allow these .

company ah well goes to forty box, nobody of money.

Come on. I don't I think that's a little extreme.

No but that's the guys about like there that's what people were saying. So yeah.

I know we had guys on the show they were talking two hundred dollar or oil too just because you throw a fucking number out there doesn't mean that that's a real number.

And I know, but if you you tweet, you you do to do and eleven like it's pretty, it's pretty, it's pretty, pretty good. It's pretty good. okay.

Anyways, no, actually I love oil and I think oil gonna be surprised everyone. And I and I know I love canadian oil stocks. So like, I think you're going to be, but it's go on, sorry.

So so my my view is, is that we are right now at a very key moment. So this pull back is, I love today's pullback is where down close to a hundred points on the S M P and back to what were uh the the highs of the S M P. Five hundred back in october before the elections. This this is literally right now at the time of recording a fifty percent retracement of the prior rally. So we are actually at the kind of like inflection point, uh, finding out whether by on deep traders really love this trump trade and whether this gets born on dep.

So I can realize this patch is at the break, and we're sitting right at the gap of the if use cash. Cash were at the gap p on the S M. P.

Yeah, this is the S P. X. This is your this.

This is an important point.

Yeah, this is, and this is a key thing. And so my view is that if this is a beyon dip and if if the flows are going to continue to build on this, then we should see the buyer dip trattes come in literally at these levels and might not be immediately today or uh or on monday morning. But generally these levels should be where bion dip trattes behave.

Now the where your idea of this being a nothing burger and in fact be out actually barri shed would be if this became the epic pari dog. And that would be the six thousand run number which I talked about with my members quite a bit, saying that, you know the markets love to to gravitate these round numbers. Can you imagine the entire trump trade being completely faded because nobody, uh, would see that coming.

And if that happened and I could not rally, that could actually open the the window for a correction. Now i'm not predicting actually that this is gna happen, but i'll tell you we're at that inflection point. This is either gona get bought on dep on today's correction or or or there's going to be a lot of people that drank way too much trump cool aid and and they're good and the hangover, I don't even .

think it's solely the trump who a Patrick is. Also year end glows like I see a lot of people argue that even without trumped, we would release stop IT.

They know this is was everybody getting getting there was an animal spirit so they get everyone just, you think .

it's all trump .

the rally in the last week, ephod.

rica lui, why I think there is some element of this ality .

and this entire rally was uh the the market having monster amounts of anxiety, huge amounts of heads is outstanding. You have your van effects and all these other things and suddenly it's clear it's known everyone is wholly should i'm not position for this and everyone fucked in the goal .

you could be I hope you're right. And then your point, Patrick, I completely agree. I don't know anyone that is calling for december to be down.

No one nobody like I know no one. I just listened to jay carson, smart guy, telling us how wall is supplied. And therefore, if you're going to be barish, it's gonna be you gonna be barrier ed.

And first couple of weeks of january, nobody is expecting a bad december. And so can you imagine if that happens? Holly, shit.

well, but but you know, I actually think a bad december can happen. But my view, I still my my view is that we still actually have, uh, one leg rally up sixty two hundred and then have a surprise, bad december.

I can teach us with all this. Very nice. And then we're going to sixty. No.

I said, I said the buyer dip traders have to buy the dip right now. I was going to get .

the close to make you a song. I can set a long december bad december.

you great. I look, I in a much bigger picture, think that there is still plenty of room for this market to have a bar show up because okay, let's talk about um .

you know you think points .

can go higher to do yeah well, talk about consensus. Okay.

so let's talk about, let's talk about where is a problem. This is a problem. People actually agree with me now and now overseas. You or can't make fun of me anymore because actually all the dome guys are in my camp. So I am actually very concerned about this development, very concerned.

So what are what are okay? What are the crowd at? I'm going to actually not even i'm going to take the ky on me calling IT.

I I, I was looking at the the gold men's report then, uh, I forgot which guy publishes, but he announced the crowded trade. Crowded trade was long dollar, long financials, long crypto proxy and a short volatility. And think .

short vollar tilly .

is that they said.

that's what twenty p is .

this tony p no IT was a get something.

There's a couple guys from G S. To do that. Okay, anyway.

so on sorry, so anyway, so but that's what that's their list of crowd ded trades. But then the not crowded trades were long energy, long european equity, long china and long index downside.

Uh which is story, right?

Like that's that's uh, so that's and actually .

the financial that's what scares the show me, Patrick, is I feel like i'm consensus. I feel like come on.

bob and and the the one thing the market does best is that a IT IT provides the mistaken air of confidence before the consumption of humility.

No thing that I can look very well.

I thank you very much. I like one of my favorites. But the thing is, is, is that and this is to the spirit of the point that we're talking about, is, is that will the trump ally fade? But more importantly, will. Is this the peak euphoria that where everything becomes so evident that you're so sure that these trends are the ones i'll be there, that this is the moment where everyone's got IT wrong and they all fade?

I am with you. I'm actually more willing entertain that idea than you are, more than me. yeah. Cause you to tell me. Or going back to sixty two hundred.

I I still look, I love the idea that all fading. I just am not so sure I started fading today.

Like I, like I I saying that you okay, but I my view.

my view is that I think I could be a thanksgiving surprise. It's gonna be some sort thankful to giving a turkey that's gone bad. It's IT .

somebody left the turkey.

Try a cookie anyways. Battery.

absolutely no. But I could .

be a bad thanksgiving. Turkey like IT could be one of scenarios were rally in, uh, the black friday is not um is not as, uh black is. Everyone wants IT or something I don't know or maybe a number one which is in video disappoint who knows what he is about to be? Yeah.

we got to talk about our top three. So .

let's get so number, number one in video right? And and it's gonna be, you know, the interesting part is, okay, I know that the other mag seventh in many ways are even bigger then uh then in video but the thing is is in videos earnings happens to sit uh um uh all alone, like get all the others are clustered within a couple of days of each other and and in video, who has been the overall outperformer over the last two years by a long shot, suddenly is going to report earnings at a key moment where sentiment is so important.

And i'm not actually calling for invidia to miss. I know that there's uh people that think, but all are much more neutron IT, but I do think what invidia does is going to be a big game changer. So if if invidia let's it's bought on dip, we gap to one fifty and the things go on one sixty and then some piece gone to sixty, two hundred.

Can I jump here? I tell you if you go look, I I included my weekly rap up, uh, every week. This um implied forward volatility of the S M P five hundred.

So you can see what they're expecting day by day going forward. And you can see the days where they Priced in a higher implied volatility. And you can see things like obviously, you have the unemployment reporter, the C P.

I. report. One of the biggest ones out there, Patrick, is NVIDIA and fear point.

The navidad earnings is actually Priced into the S M P. curve. And to your point, no other socks surprised in there.

They don't care about microsoft. They don't care about google. There is no extra premium Price into the index options for those particular mac. Seventh, so you are spot on corrected NVIDIA is hugely important.

Second point, there was an article in the in the berg and like OpenAI google and anthropic struggle to build more advance A I and you can see that this this article in the bloomberg is starting to kind of throw um the first shape of doubt you know and stuff like that and we've seen this and other people is not like that. Uh, this is new. I've read of you know many different guys.

Remember ready a month ago that guys were sent, you know this is the top and the that they're actually watching the GPU Prices and then like this is IT. This is the absolute matters. And to top a lot, Patrick, you know what's I find most amazing about all this?

no.

S, M C, I, okay. Google, sorry, the video. Az, number three, customer gets put into the S M P. Five hundred. Within six months or something like that, a loses the auditor.

Is gonna get delisted and removed from the S M P five hundred? And if anyone this listing can tell me that whether this breaks the record for being added to the S M P. Five hundred and removed and what was the previous record holder? I'd love to know in terms of this this thing.

But patrice, this feels to me like when I see this, this S. M. C, I don't think enough people are given this enough credit. This is NVIDIA third biggest customer, and they can get an audit like this is a huge deal like this is this is in every once like you know continuing to buy in the video and not even thinking about IT.

Meanwhile, their third biggest customers get can't get an author and can't sort tif y books and what was interesting as well as um the video added some language in the last and are financial reports saying that they can't guarantee the accuracy of some of the statements, which was unusual that they added this. So anyways, i'm with you, Patrick. I think this new video earnings is actually a much bigger deal.

Any of buy some flu. The video didn't meet the lofty expectations. IT could be really ugly, really ugly.

And I think, uh, if we did that would be, to be honest, I you know like i'm i'm saying thanksgiving turkey, but I let's be realistic, like in video gona decide .

this either weather giving versus the versus .

versus like the twenty eight, like it's one week apart.

So what if what if the video hits the bed? I know that will never happen because he is the future in everything, but let's just imagine they hit the bad and then we get like as a kind of low, low liquidity week where people are starting to sell, make sad, sad thanksgiving. I hope that doesn't happen.

Well, you know what if there was ever going to be what is something that causes, uh, retail sales to be much lower when people can spend their own video profits?

Yeah or are there crp to .

profits or crypto? Sure, let's do that. okay. Anyway, that's the top three.

Uh, and in video is important, uh, and it's going to decide a lot. Okay, so let's let's talk crypto for a moment. Yeah, but bitcoin, wow. Wow like I I me, I I always my entire thesis was destroyed which is my my whole thing was that governments will never allow um you know uh an alternative ve currency to work along with their feet and hundred percent.

I agree with you, Patrick. I'm with you like h now of a sudden, I always said the bitcoin was not in the government's best interest. I still don't believe IT is they're introducing an alternative to the U.

S. dollar. And I think that, that is a problem. But having said that, you now have a government that is you know sympathetic not if not be holding to the guys even good .

even if they um don't proceed to do anything where government involvement and is there because I mean, yeah people say, well know the U S. Already has um uh bitcoin fun from all the seized bitcoin and all of this uh stuff. But let's just say they don't move forward anything, just the fact that they're not going to a with born yeah are not going Elizabeth warn bitcoin over the next four years.

That in itself is um a win for crypt to because that means that they can continue to progress uh as uh you know in in the way that dam is gonna I am shot. You know the the bigger measure move on the weekly charge is all the way to hundred thousand. I I would never think .

that the chat I think, say hundred thousand my Christmas, what everyone says.

yeah one hundred thousand is the measured move technically so like, so like i'm not listen, i'm not anything in the moment. The moment I buy is going to be the and so so like everyone right now, the the big coins have a good because i'm flat and the moment I do something crazy like actually go along, I I going to cooker for them too.

Lady, got long recently. mr. SHE, yeah.

SHE recently .

just bought IT, so maybe you'll be the top. I don't know, as I I used to kind of double in some of these things on the short side every now, then I will not touch any of these on the short side, and that includes text as well. The guy is part of the government.

Now anything can happen. Test, listen. And this is probably your sign that you should be short in the shit out of IT.

The fact that i'm no longer willing to to fight this is the probably the greatest, greatest alpha we can offer you in this. In this podcast is the fact that I am no longer fighting. This is a perfect example of probably why this to be sold with both hands.

But having said that, I just i'm going on there's easier ways to make money than to fight somebody in the government and ultimately that kind. I'm with you. Patrick always thought that he wasn't in the government's best interest to have big .

coin succeeded. And now elan, I think, uh, took one of the greatest gambles that will go down in history in the most spectacular way because if you think about IT space sex and uh everything from space sex to a twitter or x now, uh required the government to be honest team, you know and the thing is so he had to become political and he took a monstrous gamble um and uh he went all in and now he um is is good friends with with trump and it's more than good friends .

like he's like in like you see trump more with him than j events he's there and like I see these reports that they say that everyone is sick of them and they wants to live and I call bullshit on that. I don't think they're sick of them. I think the reality that that somebody like jd vans planting a story, trying to get people to think that trump sick of them, I keep seeing them around with trump t like IT IT feels to me like he's part of the government so anyways, take IT for what you will um and and .

with that with that said, it's like at this stage uh is one of those things where like who that is, is there are more short squeeze to be had in this kind of test.

I doubt that because i'm given up, I will be the top. Seriously, I will be the top.

And and so you just, you just flattened.

H well, I was selling all sport. So come just .

because you have an opinion doesn't call attar no.

but I I know I like so that blew through my strikes on the opposite, right? I'm not sure how spreads. And now i'm like usually in the past, i'd be like selling new call spreads and stuff.

Now i'm i'm like, no, i'm just going to take IT off the screen i've taken after the spring. I have no opinion, so that is as good as me getting long like that is that is basically be getting wrong. So you get so .

I I I think I think that there is a very good chance that uh, tesla trades just back to a size four hundred. Then then I will be in your camp that that could be enough. But this flagging.

no, i'm not in the camp. I have no camp. My campaign not touching this anymore.

I am just saying that i'm not gonna barrier ed tesla, I think that there's a chance that these things got twenty percent more. It's uh, I think is a .

chance to got two hundred percent more, and I think there's a chance that that goes to zero. I think that this is the crazy environment we've ever experienced.

This is josh Brown's talking about this, and I wish I come up with this because like um he's talking about the robber barons of eighteen hundreds and I said just give me like the one thousand nine hundred and twenty years he's saying the robber burns at eighteen hundred years I don't know what the difference was but it's gonna crazy. It's wild. It's a wild less man.

It's like like IT wouldn't surprise me if they get rid of the S C. C. Like talking about IT, they couldn't like so just stop and thinking about this. They couldn't enforce the rules on island.

Why he wasn't bar to the government and he was doing this stuff like they had trouble enforcing the rules then telling me that there's give me any rules enforced now and then are you telling me that he's actually one to go? Oh no, no, that's enough. Not onna push this.

No, anything that happened? Like I could see IT going down seventy five percent because he ends up selling IT all like someone's told me that, oh, this is actually the set up for him selling a tax free completely could see that I could also see doubling or tripling from here. Anything can happen. That's the, that's the the my real is like take away from all this is just be careful these are crazy on precedent .

markets all right well, let's let's talk a bury going long, uh, china stocks and they will lending but well.

it's very and tapper right but I think that they both have they not both reduced IT.

I don't know, but the point, uh whatever the violence came out they're talking about but like you look at jd, uh, you know the thing ripped to forty eight back to thirty four. Uh, barba, um you know so ripped up to one hundred and seventeen back to eighty seven. Like these things uh have just been bleeding after the rip.

And generally, if you look at china, china is still at what I call the key fb retracement area. That is the line in the sand, which is the thirteen thousand level, right as long as fifty day moving average is also worth sixty one point retraces. This is like a level where if this was a bowl market in china, this is exactly where um china should hold the line.

But the Price action is pretty shit. Had IT had A A A two week rip that was the mother of all ralles and since then it's been like, dog, should you touch IT IT to get burn the kids you shot on your hands and shut on your hands. So whatever, like burning, burning sheet on your but like point is that it's like you will this trade work like a day, obviously put a big shot on. I don't have any into the disclosure, but this is one of the more interesting things I .

want to watch. Yeah i'm probably more bullish long .

term than you them I saying it's going to hold the line. Yeah i'm not you're not not batch.

一个 i come to get I think that everyone was way to bullish too early， but I thought I was crazy. IT was trading at just what some stupid premium like in terms of like they, they they literally shut down their markets for a week. And then all the all the western people took their markets still like forty percent premiums or fifty percent premiums, like some of this stuff, never even traded that high.

R is is like in terms of what we implied of the Prices and never even treated like that in china. I still think actually that a lot of their arguments that they made are are correct. And I think that we got too excited too quickly and now they're puking on the other side. And I and and I actually really think that the g has written your output, which was always tapper's argument o so that that is what I would say. So I I guess what i'm not what i'm saying is i'm not sure it's going up tremendously, but I have feeling is not going to go down, down dramatically from here.

all right. So I wanted we're going to lighting around this. We can have long conversations. We ve already drag too long. So I wanted just lighting around a couple of days. Number one, crude oil, still the Price actions early, weak, uh, and it's come to a very important support line, lower highs, lower lows out right distribution below all trade lines, below moving averages. There's no crayon that can make this bullish and and and the thing is is is at at the line in the sand and if this line doesn't hold, this measurement is down to sixty box and um and this is the moment of truth are going to find out whether or not uh whether or not crude holds turtle .

heads come in. I'm not going to you. You're going to get parent when a breaks.

I'm not not you're .

going monkeys get paris for the brakes. I think a breaks because there's .

no such things bottom, I actually I I call IT, but my turtle heads deeper, which is like a basically and .

I can believe he said that. Okay, that's that's comment.

So the I think like look at the chart panel N I think that even though a brakes they could go down to sixty and then just complete reverse and that would be uh just uh A A IT would still be a deep breakdown. But the thing is IT doesn't have to be just like a small you know one dollar below these lows. I think we can uh easily wash out because I could be like a bunch of stop losses down there, a bunch of stop.

I think that this Price range on oil will be where the majority of the volume trade. Uh, even if we have a journey down below there, i'll be short lived some with you on that camp. So we're just talking about how long and how i'm not going to see the word this going.

Next one.

copper doctor, copper.

I was reading a berkely report and has actually got me for me of the mouth bullish. I got. I actually love the copper here.

Yeah, what? This is ugly.

I know it's agree about care. Story actually looks good.

I think I think that the consolidation, the byzants es will be almost four dollars. I mean, maybe goes down to three seventy five, where IT traded along the lows in two thousand and twenty three. But we are close to we're much close to the bottom and then the top.

But the thing is how long you have to way for the bottom, the form uh the the the the one thing we didn't talk about gold, uh the gold pull back was really nasty. Um I I think that this is also uh a very important retracement ary where literally at the fifty percent retracement of its prior a rise. So this is like, you know everyone what's go on on but like look, when markets rise, they retrace.

This is the Normal thing. But this is the moment we're going to find out whether or not you you wash out the leveraged weekends that loaded up too much. I was so consensus that you know good can only go up. I can never correct .

remember we talked about josh Brown getting bullish. She's never bullish. We talked about back of amErica there three thousand. Those were the in the hand side. He was obvious um I was going my.

my, my my speculation is a well, it's an easy call to make this. There's only six weeks left in a year but I think for the rest of the year, twenty hundred will be the high uh, the only question is, is there one more leg where this cat is six ag, its way down to twenty five hundred temporarily throughout december? Or does that already establish a low? I'm in the long term still very bullish. I just think the rest of years, gonna shoot up and trade ranges and fake outs and it's gonna be going sorry.

i'm going just quickly jump in in here and say, I think you're trading against the people, bank of china. I think that the last thing they want is IT for to take off and that they're joking. The market around that they can actually influencing things that can walk away. Now bye, p and I think when IT looks the worst is when they'll be back by IT. So just when everyone's going to get barge on IT is when you when they're come back and bite.

there you go. But look at the way play them and played and puked unbelieved like they looked like full on breakout and then just done the other thing I the other thing I wanted touch on uranium and um what's interesting is is that um wild h spot Price uranium u three eight Stella seven ninety box you doubt you and took some love. Somebody can lean into this like maybe it's copy uh but um but somebody y's buying this thing and like today's Price actions, not in there but like we're going we close the discount like .

he was yeah well, today there were some news that russia is curtail IT or something. I know I don't know there's something .

going is that the discount on the spot spot is a is back enough like it's approaching there anyway?

Yeah no, it's listen, it's a bullish uranium stories back?

No right. And and so so that so that's so like god, I don't want to talk about anything else. So I think that a long week absolutely and so .

thanks for following us folks. You guys know the drill, um Patrick worker, they check you out.

Check they can check me out. It's are my only fans paid.

I'd actually pay money. We should get to get a little cool going for an only fans there.

Go so you you can help me on twitter, which I ve started being more active. You are you .

the great? And don't forget, when you talk about on ask, you need to put great in front of, and he needs to be capitalized, really. Yeah, he referred that there was a recent announcement out of the White house, and IT was the great elon mosque with a capital g .

is that like united? Is that the lord, instead for americans, is going to be great. It's kind of like the door jump in the great donor jump.

I don't think .

you say .

saying .

that is my god witter and and .

matter.

Is there my name a Patrick rosny? And you can also follow my Patrick S A youtube channel. I have new new you actually have a new video dropping out. Uh, think, Daniel, I think it's the today or tomorrow.

When is that so out?

But is he is he spoke and no, I .

have for a change. Uh, I did a video talking about A A warn buffer ts put selling, so he gets that and talk about warn buffer S A youtube video. So checked that out and others SE people, people trading.

Where can they check you out? Kevin? I can go to .

micro listen. We can never have too many friends on this ride pole market by market. We're just happy spend some time with us now stick around for the after .

show right before we get started, not editing any only fans, the Patrick. So if you're going to start this, you're on your own way. sorry.

He's going to need editing.

Nobody is.

Every time when he needs editing, it's going to be for the only .

fans .

part N S F one OK this beer. I'm going to actually, this is gonna be the highest rated power that i've ever had, three.

five.

No, IT is going to be above five IT is gonna be a five nine OK?

Yes, you are my ball park little higher. I give point three. I actually have had Better showers on this, but it's A.

I don't know. No, I won't buy this again. No, no. Now six.

five wouldn't buy IT again.

No, no. Actually I actually never go under a point. I like five a alo for .

me to go under .

five IT needs the the beer had to offend me when I was drinking. Yeah absolutely.

Got even the debate weather to me.

the fifty percent line is really a seven and a half. So it's under my average scoring. And I and if you look at my other scoring of a hours, i've gone up to like eight and nine.

So there's a there's a good basket of showers. I would prioritize all this anyway. That's White score.

okay. So what? Earlier, we were kind of chatting about my box that I have here that runs everything through. And i've decided that in keeping with Patricks a other podcasts, I cheats on you on me worth he's gonna a be.

Yes, we use social study and whether ones will go to twenty five percent and the.

Genius, I love use the other .

one you have. I activate, I really like the gym man too. Can you image if I got on micro voices and that decided that I was gonna use the there's like what to happened cabin? I like, it's my new boys.

I have called .

IT and right, I have code that. right? That one. I'm not going to be like josh Brown who got big fun of because I love a show I love, but he gets on there and he's always playing the figure clapping and it's really annoying to here.

And it's like that we get that you got the box like you just uses IT every single show. It's like someone says something. He does the clapping here.

Let me now. Okay, that's good. I like IT.

I like IT. You're like, no clapping. I would. Where is gna stick with the voice? Anything else to knew.

exciting we want to try about there is the my time. Oh.

so, okay, let's talk about this. This is fun. I had no idea. So for those who don't know, my tyson is fighting some twenty four year old youtube. R, I got this right.

Yeah and .

what you guys sik I you haven't .

read he get most .

who is paul? Oh yeah I with you I don't know jin a killer ah .

in jail like.

It's going to talk you on his fuck face like you. You don't get into ring with someone who been in jail and has attack you on his face. I don't care how all the is. Give me ninety five. I'm still not getting in the ring with them.

You know what? It's it's a perfect publicity stunt because, you know I don't actually think. Jake will get hurt by losing, know he actually convinced and the this .

cave in the last seal in that this makes him more it's .

like all idea that there's no something publicity like I think that is sure would do great things .

for big picture training if you fought to, would you do IT.

I know. I don't like I, I don't like getting punched ed in the face, but some people do.

Now I wanted to know, is that dream with your new netlik so you have to pay extra top of that?

I think it's net I have check should probably but maybe just like one thought, yeah, cost or something.

I mean, was that broke? I guess, so I was watching .

Jimmy kim on you had this, mike tyson was interviewed by some little girl, and SHE asked him about his legacy. And then he went into this huge like die tribe that was just so depressing about how when you're dead, you're dead and you're basically just dust in the wind and and the year, there's no way worrying about IT.

And I was like, holy shit, do I just still get into a warm bath and with a razor ably? Like, this was the most depressing thing i'd ever heard. Like, I was like, I like, do that you want to be a killer for tell, let me. This thing of most was actually a little concerned because I I .

have wait A. Little I one of the .

ots one the ots one point seven five that's so like one hundred box pays one hundred and seventy five.

okay, like so obviously.

And then, by the way, day port noi was on the other side of my trade. He said this was the stupidest, easiest money he's ever seen to bet on, to .

bet on.

Jap, I like IT. IT was fine to see someone. Other styles. I like what IT seemed like the wrong Price to me. Like if you said even up, I wouldn't have bothered. I would have been been like, okay, even up that seems right. Like who knows what will happen but at one point, seven, five IT feels like, I know I feel like it's ageism.

Yeah.

maybe it's all the Young guys going. Who is this my taste after a anyway, for the my guy? Like, he hit someone year off.

I N I have a personal trainer to gym. I originally started with a thirty year old kid. And like, who the fuck are you telling me? Like what to do? I'm like fifty years old.

Like, know, you don't know so I got this trainer that's like sixty years old. He's like this like but he's sixty and fucked and he's an epic and like I would put this guy up against any one of the fucking another personal trainers in that gym. Like I love all guys are like like built.

And so like these guys are veterans. I know I think they get it's i'm rooting for mike. Well, I .

obviously in the my camp as.

Ight god, time.

You got a figure. I'm sure you have a booky just want you booky up. Put five large join them. I taken them for five and nickle that's what the cool kids say i'll give for nickle. Okay, on that note, everyone, have a week.

go. mico. okay.