cover of episode Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook

Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook

2024/11/18
logo of podcast Notes on the Week Ahead

Notes on the Week Ahead
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David Kelly
首席全球策略师和全球市场洞察策略团队负责人，拥有超过20年的金融行业经验。
Topics
David Kelly利用其开发的计量经济模型，分析了新政府的关税、移民和减税政策对美国宏观经济的潜在影响。他认为，虽然这些政策变化在短期内不会对经济和市场造成灾难性影响，但长期来看，公共财政的进一步恶化会增加投资风险。关税政策可能导致通货膨胀上升，而移民政策可能会抑制劳动力增长。减税政策虽然可以刺激经济，但实际效果取决于国会的具体操作。总体而言，这些政策变化将对经济增长、通货膨胀和失业率产生复杂的影响，并可能导致美国经济前景的不确定性增加。

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Chapters
The speaker explains the process of forecasting the U.S. economy using an econometric model, detailing the steps from demand components to final economic indicators.
  • Forecasting starts with components of demand: consumption, investment, trade, and government spending.
  • Labor market equations and demographic assumptions are used to forecast jobs, unemployment, and wage growth.
  • Energy prices and the dollar drive inflation forecasts, which then influence interest rates and other economic indicators.

Shownotes Transcript

I’ve been running my own econometric model of the U.S. economy for almost 30 years now. The basic structure is simple. You start by forecasting the components of demand, that is to say, consumption, investment, trade and government spending. This gives you an initial projection of real GDP growth. You then feed this into labor market equations, along with some demographic assumptions, to forecast the growth in jobs, the unemployment rate and wage growth. All of this, along with assumptions about energy prices and the dollar, then drive forecasts of inflation. Given this outlook for growth and inflation, you make an assumption about the path for the federal funds rate and then run forecasts of other interest rates. With all of this in hand, you can forecast productivity, corporate profits, the federal budget deficit and household net worth. And then you go back to the start to see how all these changes impact your original demand forecast. You repeat the process until you arrive at a reasonably consistent solution.