A fraught climate change conference, how are US home builders doing, and more
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This is the indicator of from plant of money and dying woods here with well in one and a dream mah. And you know, there is a lot of economic news we're expecting this week, so we wanted to give you an idea of what we're watching.

This is the part, I guess, what we ask questions like what's happening with the economy now? How does the past inform the present? Where will the future take us?

Or you know, at the very least, where will the next several business days take us today? On the show, we look ahead to the week's economic news, like countries caughey up money for climate change.

how confident our home builders right now.

and we ask whether U. S. Manufacturing really is in decline. That's all off to the break. Okay, we are looking at what's coming up this week and economic indicators where then wrong, take us away.

What I am watching this week is cop twenty nine. This is the united nations, and no climate change conference is being held. An observer zon.

And we are headed to the second and final week. I will say this cop has been a little fraught. I me maybe always a little fraught, but we just have the election in the U.

S. And Donald trump. S that he's going to pull out of the paris agreement .

for the second time.

Yeah, I mean, we have seen this film before. This time around, argentina might do the same though. President heavier male pulled the argenton negotiators from cop twenty nine after just three days, and then he fled a morale go for a conservative summit.

So the countries that are still at cop twenty nine, like what are going to be the hot topics they're talking about this year?

Well, this is a perennial hot topic. But climate finance, basically, how much money should rich countries pony up to help our income countries reduce their emissions and climate change? Back in two thousand and and nine, wealthy countries said they would provide a hundred billion dollars .

a year by twenty.

and they miss their timeline. So they're expected to come up with a new goal now. And as you might expect, there is a lot of disagreement over what the new number should be.

I mean, I could be higher, but how much higher, who knows? And of course, where is the money going to come from? Now, one bus wear from this year's cop twenty nine is solidity levies.

Have you guys heard of time for me? Yeah, what is what is that?

A solid levy is attacks that raises money for a particular cause that a government wants to fund. These are actually already in use in dozens of countries. One example is france said, has a special tax on airline tickets that goes towards public health. So in the case of climate, the solidarity levy crowd wants to tax industries like shaping or fossil fuels and then channel .

that money to these lower income countries.

Is that the basic job of government to text some things .

in me on a solid sway by any other?

I think you should just be happy to learn some new vo cap today.

This sounds like a levy, but they're giving a nice new yeah.

it's just attacks.

So what are we expecting this gonna happen with the the U. S. Paris agreement. I mean, will we find out this week?

Uh, who knows? I mean, interestingly enough, the C, E O of axons said publicly last week that the U. S. Should not pull out. He said he would create too much uncertainty.

Wow.

a twist.

twist. okay. So my indicator that i'm watching actually has to do with uncertainty, uh, flash certainty. Anyway, it's called the home builders confidence index is this index, which actually comes out this morning, and it's a measure put together each month by the national association of home builders.

And the way to calculate this index is the survey, a bunch of companies that build single family homes and they ask them things like how are sales going? How do you think they're going to be going in the near future? And the the index itself is on a scale from zero to one hundred. And the closer you get to a hundred, the more positive the feelings are, right? So for example, back in twenty twenty, the home builder confidence index actually reached ninety.

Ah so feeling great.

Yeah like I remember in to any, there was a lot of demand for single family homes because of lower interest strates work from home, among other things.

absolutely. But over the next few years, that confidence was eroded by a number of factors, supply chain issues, inflation rising, borrow in costs. All these things made the costs of building homes more expensive, which made IT unaffordable for many wouldn't buyers.

This year, the index fell into the forties. However, the last couple of months, we have seen a bit of an optic in builder confidence, and that could be because of the federal serve just gotten inflation down to almost the two percent target. It's also begun cutting interest rates, which should result in cheaper mortgage in time. So this week, i'll be watching to see if that trunk continues.

And what's your spider sense telling you agan?

Ah my spider sense is telling me that maybe we could expect to see like a slight uptake in the confidence of builders and that could be because of the presidential election, right? President elect Donald m. Has promised to cut regulations that um he says make IT harder to build a housing. And so I think it's possible, if not this month, maybe next month, we could see that factor in from .

building homes to building everything else. I'm going to be looking at manufacturing, specifically the phildee hia fs manufacturing survey.

which comes out this thursday. So this is like a big theme for the election. Democrats, republicans talking about the health of U. S. manufacturing. yeah.

And in the short term, there actually been some recent optics and manufacturing activity after a fairly lackluster last to half years. We'll see if that continued in november.

Longer term though, I mean, I feel like the bigger story is the decline of american manufacturing and whether it's possible .

to yeah a lot of talk, but the reality is much more interesting. It's true that as a share of jobs, manufacturing is a lot less now that IT was several decades ago. So in eighty forty seven, one in three jobs were manufacturing. And now it's about one in ten.

Not many of those one in three jobs in one thousand nine hundred and forty seven was pag casters.

Are we bet? I don't think we can't. Is manufacturing, even though we do manufacturing. Beautiful .

smile .

and words smile .

going manufacturing.

In fact.

yes, on the actual output produced the story's merker in the U. S. Over the last twenty years, the country has produced more or less as much as I ever has. And that's thanks to automation. Then doing things Better.

You are manufacturing jobs. Same output. And what about that output as a share .

of the economy? Yeah, as a share of the economy is also fAllen. Manufacturing was about twenty or twenty five percent of economic in the U S. In one thousand nine hundred and fifties and now it's about ten percent.

That's so interesting. So it's like you took the number of cars and pianos and computer chips being made in. I know like the year two thousand, we still produce roughly the same amount of stuff with fewer workers.

And also, we've produce so much more of other things. Services like, I don't know, Brown coffee, make websites, teaching people had a skydive. That's important.

What did that come from?

I know I just .

kind of listening a big part of my personal basket.

skewing the the numbers here.

There is just jump in out of planes constantly. But that all all this sky diving, leery ans doing, means that manufacturing has become less, less important, relatively.

yes. And there is, of course, this human toll to those job losses, which can economically hollow entire town. So over over the last seventy years or so, the U.

S. Went through a manufacturing jobs decline. IT has gone through a relative manufacturing stuff decline. But it's also worth kept in mind. We're still producing roughly as much stuff as .

we always have. Okay, we will wait to see whether that stays true in november.

Yeah, my eyes will be glued to the philadephia fids website. And while I wait, i'm actually got to jump out of the series now. C guys 摔 了。

dry out. Forget persue.

Diary are you? K.

i'm. That was not a software ending.

This is that was produced by injaz atas with engineering by voluntary a Rodriguez sanchez IT was specchi ked by sea hot is taking and and edit the show. And the indicator .

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