cover of episode The Trump economy. How big? How beautiful?

The Trump economy. How big? How beautiful?

2024/11/7
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Katie Martin: 对特朗普经济政策的预测,特别是通货膨胀的可能性,以及对美元、债券和股市的影响。她认为市场对特朗普当选的反应是积极的,但存在多种相互抵消的力量,例如美元升值可能抵消关税的影响。她还预测了不同经济指标在未来几年的走势,例如通货膨胀率和利率。 Rob Armstrong: 分析了特朗普政策可能导致通货膨胀的多种途径,包括减税增支导致的赤字扩大,以及移民政策导致的劳动力短缺和工资上涨。他认为市场对特朗普政策的通货膨胀预期是合理的,并讨论了市场对通货膨胀的反应以及特朗普对市场反应的应对方式。他强调了关税和移民政策的不确定性,以及这些政策的实际影响可能与市场预期不同。 Aidan Reiter: 对特朗普经济政策持相对乐观态度,认为市场对特朗普当选的反应是积极的,并预测了股市和利率在未来几年的走势。他认为特朗普的政策将在一定程度上导致通货膨胀,但其速度取决于政策实施的速度。他还讨论了特朗普可能对美联储主席鲍威尔进行人事调整的可能性,以及这将如何影响利率。 Aiden Reiter: 对特朗普经济政策持相对乐观态度,认为市场对特朗普当选的反应是积极的,并预测了股市和利率在未来几年的走势。他认为特朗普的政策将在一定程度上导致通货膨胀,但其速度取决于政策实施的速度。他还讨论了特朗普可能对美联储主席鲍威尔进行人事调整的可能性,以及这将如何影响利率。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion revolves around whether Trump's policies will lead to inflation, focusing on tax cuts, immigration, and tariffs.
  • Trump's policies include tax cuts, immigration restrictions, and tariffs, which could lead to inflation.
  • Markets have already reacted positively to Trump's election, with stock markets rising.
  • There are counterbalancing forces, such as a stronger dollar, that could mitigate inflationary effects.

Shownotes Transcript

If Donald Trump’s campaign promises about things such as immigration, the dollar, trade and tax policy are realised, the US will start an economic experiment without recent precedent. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter make their best guesses about a very confusing and unfamiliar future. Also, we short incumbents and tweed and go long the American project. 

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You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected]) and Katie Martin at [email protected]). 

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