The Most Steep and Uncorrected Chart in the Market
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I heard something that I won't mention here, but some people just Johnson, yeah, is that fair? Yeah but you know who's not definitely guy. She's now we were at the robbin hood conference, summer investor summit, investor summit.

Miami, not the beach. Miami saw off the beach, yes, and definitely said in with us for a market, cn people loved IT. So what did we say?

He was a big hit. We said we got a couple extra kes back in new york city.

Come join my to be here.

Then you slow around. I saw out the year yeah so my a .

doctor but he lives in the B K. And the brooklin yeah ah kline is nice.

right? It's is and you know IT makes .

sense that .

I asked her where the the robber od offices are the right next to the google, right off the river, which makes sense because this is a company. I don't think there's too many other financial services companies that been founded in silk vali. Definitely, by the way.

you know, you know about people that wrong all the time. That would be me. yeah. And you know about people that been right a lot of the time. That would be her.

Be very clear, you're the head of investment strategy over .

the roman and she's joining us .

for the shell. So let's we're going to get your impression.

So we ve got strict too.

Very nice. I like the wood.

what? Yes, it's a nice. We went through lighting of things before we came to this. Now before we get into IT, let's just talk your your on tar was fifty eight hundred. Well done.

You said there was a twenty percent chance we could get to sort of six thousand and sixty one hundred were basically there. So all your predictions are basically come to ferient as we sit here on whatever today is november twenty six. Yeah, talk about that.

I mean, I really just it's very basal all and here .

we are now how did did things work sort of the way you thought we got here, sort of a different .

way they did actually like I thought, you know, interest rates, we kind of stay someone elevated ated really to the last like five, ten, fifteen years. Um I thought we would have strong earnings, uh, growth. I thought we were I thought the markets were not super undervalued, but they could get little more overvalued like things, I always get a little more overvalued before they maybe get corrected. Um I also thought we have correction sometime kind .

of late summer, which we did aug and again .

september yep. I I also thought that once we had more clarity post election, that's when you could see my twenty percent coming to play, which is what happened. So um looking forward, I kind of think I think over the next three to six months we can get to sixty three hundred. I'm not sure yet. I haven't formed my opinion for the whole year yet.

You also saw us born in one thousand nine and sixty three, decent eighteen. Thank you. You also thought we would be in for the fourth soft landing since nineteen sixty. So is that change where we're still on target for that?

I think we're still on target for that. I think the what the risk that I look at today are just interest rates, like I really do think that the other thing that we've seen since one thousand nine hundred and sixty is that the bond vigilantes come out whenever you have dutch GDP of three percent, and we are knocking y on the door there this year.

So let's talk about the bond vigilantes because a week or so ago, we got about four and eight percent to ten year. The yield curve, depending on the day, is gone from in recent deepening to back to inversion. Let's just call a flat for sake of argument.

What's your sense of what's going on so flat? I'll tell you, i'm one of these people that think yields ten yields are going significantly hired. When I say significantly higher, I think we get to levels we saw last fall, which is ish five percent. So thoughts on what that means.

I mean, I I kind of agree with you actually think there's a case to be made that they could go a little hired depending on what policy does between we saw like the announcement of the terrorist market clothes yesterday and the market is reacting to IT today. Um and so I you know there is just so much paper that is going to come continue to come online.

I think the market I think the treasuries baring to eat hundred and fifty billion in the first quarter, and that's a record first quarter for this country. Um and that's why I think like at some point, the rubber has to meet the road, like IT has to matter. Um and that's why I think I could go higher plus like the economy is doing really well like I know not everybody feels that in this country, but if you are traveling, things are just there's and that that doesn't boat. That doesn't mean that we should necessarily have a lot lower. I think there's a .

lot across currencies are relates to the economy. And well drilling is some of the stuff that we heard out of some retailers we're going and seems like this black friday I started about like how we in age, somebody like that show is short, but that seems like it's also, I think that they take away. I would says that it's very promotional too, right? So we might see margin pressure as relates to a bunch of these retailers.

But to your point about the terror stuff, and you know, I think a lot of us have very short memories to think about how IT went under the first drop administration. IT was kind of chaotic as far as policy was concerned. And so know a lot of folks would say, well, one of the problems of my administration has had is that they weren't out.

They're talking about some of the successes that they had. yes. And guy, you know, i've been talking about this all year. IT really into the election is like, you know, there was a huge disconnect between what a lot of consumers we're feeling about the economy and then what we were seeing.

You know what I mean, like as far as the markets were concerned, because you can't have a rip growing market with rates you that have been relatively high to your point relative to the last fifteen years or so and say, well, we don't have the markets not pricing in a strong economy, right? Because the approval rating on the by the ministration was horrible and economy. So so here we are.

We have this tariff policy by tweet. You guys Better be ready for. We didn't have too many types over the last four years. And you know like we got to my day.

And so I guess the .

question I have for you is like you think the economy is strong, you think earnings have been strong, you've seen multiple expansion based on the prospects that rates are going to come down and the economy is going to continue to stick in certain certainly, are there is there going to be some trepidation as we get into the policy aspect of this new administration? Because, again, a lot of people were saying the market was rallying on the hopes of deregulation and lower taxes and maybe terrace won't be as bad. So lot of yes, I think remain Prices now yeah .

baked into Prices now. And that's why I think like some of the the things that like are going to hit us like the terrorists, like I am not sure I I just not on the camp of like this is just a negotiating tactic. I actually think they are going to to fruition and they might be stronger than they were before.

We obviously also have to like i'm also thinking about that in the context of like tax hikes or not taxi, yes, right. And what that means for a deficit and how they actually end up passing IT. I think there's like it's a lot of back and forth.

I think from here. I also think where we've been in a stock picker market for a while now, and I think that will continue. Like you even see within the retail space, there's some really strong winners, right?

Like the exporting goods continues to make out of park walmart. Then you have like target and you have calls really struggling. So I I really think like it's it's also just where an environment where like decision making really matters because we have interest strates and the cost of funding is truly there. That's a it's a different pard. It's a different .

part time from the last I ent to this into the stock pickers market. And it's also really hard even when you say that term, you don't mean because look at a dex you know IT today, two twenty six IT trade is high, two twenty nine and a half. And right now it's trained to fourteen and a half now.

So IT tels you down? Yeah and this is a stock that kind of stuck in the mud. If you think about you know how to q and broke out to new hires, it's been in between, let's say, one ninety guy and two forty. The upside, that's kind of no mans land in the market where walmart throughout walmart for a second, I mean, that looks like they either cured cancer or are like have some sort of general AI. You know he means solution that is killing everyone else.

Well, I think the walmart charts suggest that their margins the the margin expansion that they've enjoyed on the back of A I is now being Priced in, in terms of the valuation of the market, it's rewarding them with what sort of make sense. But a certain point is that kind of make sense. You mentioned D, K, S, pulled up real quick.

I mean, this has been sideways since march. You know, you can make an argument that maybe a little bit of many head and shoulder, you know, you have the head basically created, I want to say, in the middle of early september ish. And then you have this now potential for the other shoulder.

That's just something to look at here, especially depending on how we close. But and one thing just going back to the broader markets step, this is interesting. We say IT all the time, you don't trade the market on valuation.

It's not a timing mechanism. But the more Richard d gets, the less room forever. The market has speak to that.

I mean, just because I think one of my the things I repeat over, over again as expectations are everything. And once you have high valuations and all of the positive expectations can be baked into something, the bar just gets really, really high. And that's why I think something like dick happens, right, like they're expected to just continue to deliver um and that's what happens a lot in the text space as well.

So I think that's why it's not a good timing mechanism because we know valuations can get beyond where they may be deserve to be. But IT IT does mean that you have to watch what is happening and if expectations. Even just meet like that's not enough anymore for whatever company are looking well.

quickly, I think we saw that was video I an i'm Cherry picking a little video. Basic came out in line ish, maybe bit Better. Stock did nothing after earnings that rarely met in the all time high the next day. And over the last couple now trading sessions, it's been trading lower. So I think if you want to look at something antidotal, I mean, in videos.

I want to look at, yeah, no doubt again, this goes back to trade also. I mean, there has been a number of restrictions put on by the by administration about high G, P, used being sold into china, right? China was a huge part of those beats.

If a man wants to take that chart back to maybe two years, you know, huge part of those beats that we saw on twenty, twenty three. And then as the restrictions were coming on, there is double, triple ordering. Now make no mistake about IT.

I mean, this company is not in any worst position that IT was three months ago, right? But the magnitude of the beat and raises are getting smaller. And let's go back to um a shorter term chart here for a second.

This stock is about twenty five percent of the S M P five hundred ds year to day games. So right? So we will talk a little bit about concentration so you can mentally see that up trend from the August lows.

You see that one hundred and fifty day moving average. There's probably a pretty good chance. And you and I looked at this yesterday, guy IT breaks below that um break out level from H I want to say a month and a half ago and we kind of test some levels.

And if you go from the july or the june highs down the August lows, that was a thirty seven percent sell up. Now I just want to make one other point here and I want to get you in on semi. Let's go to the S M D T F, the tracks semi conductor index.

We know that taiwan semi and and video make up thirty five percent of the way to this. Maybe it's not a great constructed etf. Let's go to the bars and let's can pull IT out a little bit. You know, when you think of this, this this etf is can .

stuck in the money. Yeah.

yeah. So and a lot of that has to be the relative under performance of an invidia over this past period when the S P. And as that seems like theyve made like about a dozen new high, high step in that current talk about how you think about concentration um in you don't mean like in general in in the major in this.

I think that's why I say it's a stock pickers market, not nessy because like oh, you it's it's so easy to find opportunities. It's the like. It's always been.

But what I mean .

is there was no that's a song that's .

actually talking, talking killing, right? A of her music.

We have very .

diversified, just like the way I managed my portal ly. But I do have a bias towards old school.

Hip hop is good.

I know what that is, right? That's all.

Sure love. He wasn't, didn't he parish in a good fighter or two by the saying the different yeah .

course I am a group .

in new works yeah .

by the way, just is a little teaser bag small? We're going to do a couple options trader. I'm going to navigate the the Robin legend.

I'm going to be a legend on way. We will take you and a some questions. Have two trade ideas going to get to one in the second here. So to cut what .

I was saying.

same IT ever was. That's where we left off, yes.

But what I was saying is that I I actually think like different I keeps its a new paradigm ship from an interest perspective, but also I think from necessarily just buying a market captained ted index. 对， and that's IT like I actually think that you leave some opportunity or on the table by doing that because those largest companies that are driving the returns of those index like they might be getting long in the truth. And I think there's a lot of opportunity.

And I I want to be clear again, you spot on this mark without question. We talked about two of the four risks, interest rate risk. We talked about valuation concern in terms of being basically, you know less and less room for our geopolitical risk is out there on your list as well.

And listen, that's been around since russia invaded ukraine couple years ago, right? So that's been here. But seemingly the market hasn't really cared. Why would IT start to care? You think of these things get escalates?

yeah. I mean, that's the one thing I would say about like the new administration as that historical, they've shown strength when IT comes to non U S. issues. And so maybe the optimism is that some of that stuff will start to calm down. But I do worry about like maybe I I don't want this to get a little no.

it's about politics.

I mean, I just worry about like what you know in one case, like that maybe means that things start to come down in places like middle east that then impacts the Price of oil, that then impacts our inflation. But then maybe there are other things that come into IT because other countries maybe starting like we're not onna, be as co Operative with you and we'd bite all our goods from china the way .

that's not political. What soever we're gonna go into a period over the next few years where a lot of the site, like we didn't hear from the by administration of daily basis, they weren't holding the sort of pressers that went on doing the first one. They didn't have anybody on the a on the twitter machine or anything like that.

So I think for a lot of investors, they're gona have to kind of get use of some of those kind of broader reaching sort of things. You would have to discount some of IT. You don't mean like and and so again, IT makes sense that you have to start your screens. If you're an active trader, you can go up and spend too much time. Is that makes some sensitive .

without question, sound about politics. It's just trying to read the t leaves and see was going out there yeah sort of anticipate the stuff. The other thing and i'm on board with this, by the way, I don't think you necessarily think we're headed there.

But the same way, I think rates are going higher. I think the unemployment rates going to go higher, and that's the fourth risk that you put out there. You think sort of four and a half fish or north of that things get a little bicc?

Yeah, that's where I started saying, like things, we're getting a little softer. It's really like the cracks of our own internal economy. And what I think could be the maker break for owning things like small caps and PS because they're so U S.

focus. You look at change, you look at actuals. We got to pull up the the wrestle two thousand. This is to be sitting on the time for years.

I mean, a long time i've been doing this, this one thousand nine hundred and sixty eight right right before, like right after what?

You're not to get used to some of the circle. I you know we're talking about music we said, well, you know, he was the first run at her mother so so I was going say about .

fast money often .

times like somebody across the day you talking about something and I pulled up on my facts that machine and i'll show and guys like double tap ble, he's like the king in a double top. So look at this one here. And we talked about this relative under performance to the major industry for a long time.

Didn't matter whether rate were going to hire or they're going lower. You know, I IT didn't even didn't even outperform that much off of the coped loads, right? So here you are.

You have an index that is basically the size of I don't know, it's less than in video, less than apple or so, but you've made up some ground here. And I guess so we'd ask you what would be the thing, in your opinion, that would cause this thing to break out of a three year or so? You mean consolidation with relative under performance because i'm hard pressed to think where that is.

If terms are going to hit this group really hard, right? If they're greater than expected, if unemployment goes to wear, you're talking about IT could going to hit this group really hard, right? Two thirds of I think employment comes from small and and seven percent ah something like that. So we talked to us a little bit how you see this more from a trading perspective.

I mean, i'm looking at this feeling like so I mean a long mocs in june and I and I started relaying from there. I don't I sort of feel like it's broken. I feel like it's broken now.

And I started to when I look at this, I think, oh, it's on its way. You have to walk if it's going to dip down. But if you look underneath the hood, the two largest sectors are financials and industrials.

When you look at smoke aps, right? So that means that our U. S. Economy has to continue to be strong. So even if we have a little higher unemployment, if things are generally like still going okay, and maybe the unemployment is just from like some not no longer willingness for margin compression to come and maybe that's okay.

I know financials are do they do well in a higher interest rate environment? They should IT as long as the curve has its steeps ess to IT. And if they don't have if he doesn't have that steepened. Ss, the other thing that could drive a pull up financial potentially could be the fact that we have deregulation and then maybe .

you start having emini activity in the smaller part.

The think if you could still have this continue. A I look at this, but I I think you can.

We got to see if IT back in films which you did, right, kind of short this thing up. Let's pull IT up to like a six months or something like that. You see, I had that break out right after the election, and then IT filled the entire gap. Now, guy, what does that mean to you that the fact that filled in almost a gap.

and it's very encouraging, I mean, stuff is right. That looks like a break up. We need to close. Look, if i'm really started to try to handicap this thing close above two forty five ish and then we should be ready for a new range.

But again, I think you're backing in a lot in terms of the reaction elerson of the economy and the hope that interest rates are going up for the right reasons. And if they continue to go up, is that IT somehow hamstring this thing? And also, you have to believe that the unemployment rate is gonna sort of ten game here for one, four, two and and that might well come the fervent.

that's not my place. But if these tax cuts from seventeen are going to be made permanently, at least that's what, you know, the sea level, sweet amErica thinks gna happen. You might hold off if things start to slow down a bit before cutting too much cost. Which means in the personal thing, right guy, i'm .

going to throw.

i'm looking at you a jump ball as far as .

topics and to get her in here.

So we were just told because we started about geopolitics and we have a trade idea that is related to that, but then we just worked ourselves into financials and banks. We have a trade. I deal there to both of them.

and both of them .

are contrarian. Which do you want to start?

Well, you didn't give me a chance.

You didn't give me a going to be baba alia a or x alia a. really. okay.

Know what? Can I change my answer? Yeah XL, let's go. Because we were just .

talking about.

do you member, he's never seen. So IT doesn't work that I got that that was ramer movie phone. Remember, if you want to to go .

a .

movie in late and you tell .

no internet .

new papers, you see a ology was calling .

the interview.

there is no problem.

like he's a big fan angle.

Guide me how I just want to be Crystal clear if I wanted to go see, for example, like dog day afternoon without a and the great john.

yes, yes.

by the way, will to talk this offline about the five movies. I would go to that, like go to my local paper, the citizen register in crown non hutton, and i'd go to the movie section that would show, where was plant? Yeah, sometimes I have to drive all the way away.

Plants sometimes was in my own backyard. We go to the drive. Theat is day is .

to take to the driver, do you? Member, I know I will .

call them dates. And then IT .

last particularly long.

now went to the movies, what we used to do for the drive. And you brought this up, by the way, that we put people on the truck. I had a new electoral big car, by the way. So we put like two.

three people in, in the beginning of the outsiders.

they did the same thing. We figured .

daily.

really say that mine was an electric fantastic big car .

high school.

my mom, so a man is mad of me. Now.

right, let's do this. Let's look at the excel left post trade. okay? No baris. So you you so I think so .

I think .

the banks in particular, and I think .

that like so here's our chart here. And this is one of the things that's a nice little uptrain to bounced off that hundred and fifty days. You saw that gap. That's probably one of the biggest gaps that we saw as far sectors were concerned on november six post the election.

And so we're talking about you brought the sub stuff is why I wanted to go to this right away is like, okay, the idea of deregulation, the ID of the U. S. Economy may be inflecting higher, that sort thing.

That should be good for the banks like I get IT. And in the last year, right, super. But in the last year, as we saw in version, do you all this first step, rates were going up, rate are going down.

We're going to be in a red cot and cycle. Maybe rate aren't going down. It's been good for the banks all away around. And so I just think there's a bit of a poll ford thoughts on .

that I I kind of agree through. I was looking before we came here at financial sector versus like tech sector and really like in the last three months, financials are at fifteen percent text up five. Like that is a huge kind of reversal of what the trends have been. And so yeah, I think it's it's rational, say there should be some profit taking.

I hear how I look the excel for get up for healthy way for thirteen percent of this etf, right? That's its own animal. yeah.

But now thirty percent of the of the remate. So in the next thirty percent are basically five socks, J P. Morgan. Which ten percent is a very expensive stock by historical measures. If you look at IT visit, master card, which have been on unabated, runs couple selves along the way.

But if you think this can be a slowdown with the consumer, you're going to feel with master carton VISA bank of america, which is an unmitigated disaster in terms of their loans to maturity book, and then wells fargo, which is his own animals as well. So you throw that in the mix and say, you can make a compelling argument. All those five stocks have some potential risk to the downside workshop note with standing, which is why this makes sense.

Sure might. Also, when you think about IT from a performance point, you may this point thers on hundred.

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Let's look at the excel f here. And I started with A A bit of that gap. IT started with, you know, kind of the rate environment where people are probably pretty uncertainty.

If you look at the cne fed funds tracker, I mean, there was you know a very high probability of you know continued cuts into the new year. I know you think is a chance we could get down to four percent in the fed. Funds were at four point seven five on the upper upper end of that. I just think that there's a good chance that the X, L, in that gap will be the next kind of months and a half or so, nearly two months. So lets let man IT let me drive here on the legend here, because, you know, I like to be.

this is a dope thing, but the people say that, well.

the kids do. I mean, he is, do what back in the day? Listen the hip hop.

So I just want to pull the art. So I have this up. The XL left here.

Let me go to the chart um that i'm just looking at here. Hops, I got to do, I got to go. Yeah, there we go.

So look at this on a long term basis, right? I had that huge break out, about forty one in a half. This looks relatively unit. If you look at where that one hundred and fifty day moving averages at forty four, here we are. Fifty one is something like that. I just think that at the very least, you could get a pull back fill in that gap the same way that you're rusal two thousand did post election. Thoughts on that for a technical perspective?

Yeah, I think I mean, anytime, anytime you have to run up this much in a very short period time, I think you want to kind of be careful about like like one of my old clients, you to say in all the time, boys and beats make money, pigs gets lauter. You just want to kind of be careful. I think IT doesn't hurt to at least put not maybe some protection on or or at least just kind of be like let's just take get a little closer plane .

with house so yeah no and I get that and that makes sense of in the idea is like I like N T F, like this and guys point about bircher dos. It's not great, great fit as far .

as if you're looking ahead, if you looking ahead.

but but this is a .

great training vehicle market. And be so like if you saw the recent fed report like there, you know people are not overly leverage necessarily, but they are starting to have more charge of, yes, that are more over.

I think the the link would see rates are like thirty. I want to see the north seven percent now, which is the highest we seen since two thousand and eleven on sitting on top of like one point two trillion dollars a credit card debt at twenty three percent, which is the average credit card rate, which so I get the leverage part, but you know we're probably getting towards levels, listen, mass card and VISA as we know they don't take credit risk. But if transaction .

starts to slow.

you get best action amount .

right and and best by they made some comment about people buying tvs before the election. I mean, that seems kind of add to me, but that's the sort of thing that you don't want to hear.

Strange though that I feel like there's this like ever he was waiting for the election. See, before they made any big, big tit.

especially when the way a lot of consumers or a lot of folks voted in the election, they were speaking with their world.

And that shows you people hate inflation.

Yes, hundred percent. right. Lets look at this. So here's the chart you see where I want this thing to get, to want a gap filled down to forty seven.

Let me build this options trade. Here i'm going to january oration. I'm looking at a put spread here I went near the money.

So here I am. I click on this fifty one put here. I want to do the fifty one, forty seven puts spread.

And this is this easy people. And then here you O I just clicked on selling the forty seven. So if you do this and you look at this trade idea, you basically have a four dollar wide.

I'm paying about eighty five cents for this. Okay, so i'm buying to open one of the fifty one puts for about a dollar ten. I'm selling one of the jan forty seven puts about twenty five cents.

You see that little diagram you can make up to three fifteen. okay? This goes back all the way to fifty fifteen and forty seven.

That is your max game. Below forty seven, you've lost up to eighty five cents between fifty fifteen and fifty one with a max loss um above that. And so the way I think about a trade like this, I do IT from a risk reward standpoint.

We can obviously look at the deltas here suggesting what the applied part of that being in the money, if you haven't at the money put, you basically have a fifty, fifty percent probability that's going to be in the money and genuine exploration. But I like the risk ward here, less than two percent of the etf prize. Um I have a max potential gain of six percent if it's done about eight percent or so in january exploration.

And then just the last thing and guy, I talk about this all the time. You can talk about the structure, but i'm long premium directional. If this etf go sideways or up, okay, i'm going to use a fifty percent premium stop on this. I do not like to see long premium active trades go to zero on my part four cents.

You're out basically again for gets down to forty cents, forty five cents, whatever IT is. I like this trade because you know probably three to one in your three to one. So you're risking one to make three.

I think anything lesson that you want to try to avoid three to one is sort of the norm in terms of this trade and is probably a decent probability. This is gone to start to work in your favor. Look again, you know, the banks have been unabated, but japan organ, once IT, gets towards this two stand deviations away from one hundred and fifty day moving average. That's typically when things started to slow down for them. And in terms surprised to change a book, we're talking levels we haven't seen since previous seal crisis.

So there are a lot of reasons to think this could take a place you use to get all up. My girl about selling, let me drive again here for a second. So if i'm looking at the options chain in january, so I just mentioned that fifty one put, okay, it's got basically a forty eight delta.

So it's basically saying forty eight percent probability that is in the money on january expression. We get that. Let's look down at the forty seven and i'm selling about a twelve thirteen percent probabilities. And you might say, well, that's not particularly great.

Why would you be selling that? why? Because over the next month, we're going to have these really slow sort of holiday weeks, right? We have a half day in front Christmas or and we have a half day in front new years or after you.

So like the idea that i'm taking off twenty four, seven or twenty five cents of this and letting kind of run out a little bit makes some sense. I might cover IT after that into genuine expiration. The last thing on to say about genuine expiration, IT catches a bunch of the banks earnings. And so I think that the at the money put are gonna stay bid. What do you think of that stuff to gold?

I think it's A, A good analysis of like what you're because I do think we have to look into earnings in january. I actually think I feel like there they'll still have a lot of reasons to. Put up good numbers, but I also think it's about expectations and they have gotten really, really high. And so I said I think I was come back to .

that and he goes back to valuation as well, which is some points gna matter. We also like to bring in some questions during our show stephany. So this is from J.

S, whose weather every day he wants play a little game of the jone. Would you rather? Yeah, yes, yes.

He came in in j. OK. Let's play with blackstone or carg group. I'll give you the answer. My answer is carlo g group.

If you looked the all somehow and cg was made in november of twenty twenty one. Like many stocks north of sixty hours, we are now trading fifty three. I think we're going to a visit that level and potentially take IT out.

Blackstone, on the other hand, has been an unabated run to the upside. If you look, it's given a little back over the last couple weeks, but you know that prior all time high, which was also made in november of twenty twenty one, was about one hundred and forty five dollars. So I think black zone could do a bit of a back and field, not back to one forty five, but I think it's setting up for bit of a retracement.

I think car law want to sort a hair trigger to take out the prior all time high. J. S.

to do that did mean I say about these names and why they had these sort of moves. If you think about the idea of the capital markets reopen in twenty twenty five, you think of the, you know, the paint up. These aren't VC, right? The private equity.

So they don't have the pent up demand to take private companies public the same way that a VC company does that the private equity they buy companies, they bring them private, they rework them, throw a bunch of debt on there, right? And so then ultimately, you spend back out or you sell them like to, you know another strategic fire. So that's what's happened here.

I know I see what you're doing with cargo. I don't like I just think when you see a move like like I think it's pulled forward a lot of that excitement that you seek, you only mean so I think there's Better places to be in financial. Rather buy A J P Morgan on a ten percent pullback or something like that, you know, because I want to buy golden Morgan who are in J P market, who will set up to see an IPO bench in twenty twenty five or an M A bench .

is that .

makes some stuff. A, we just get new. This is new guy.

The second we had, the first time, which we had a Better. If he sucks, he wouldn't be here. She's good.

Thank you .

for the world. No.

what is a true?

And I we've been bad. We have loved up.

And I was, you know, I give her credit because we were. The sort of the second floor of that hotel are very noisy, very hard to hear yet. You will put your .

champ bound I just bound around .

for like .

dancing anyway, please.

No, I mean I when I look at like go a company like car lyle of black stone, I I do agree that black stone I think is just like hold and so much future demand into their pricing, into their valuations. Carley's looks more attractive to me from evaluation perspective. When I look at IT, I mean, it's twelve and a half times. No, you look at a black zone, it's like thirty five times next twelve months. Earnings dividend deal is certainly a bit Better and that sometimes why you buy these things because all kind of pay out um a nicely, I just like the whole private equity world just makes me a little bit nervous um because there .

is so much just like so much .

dry powder um and is there enough deals to be done maybe in the new administration with less regulation, there is more more to be done because maybe you can they probably are sitting on some stuff that they bought at higher evaluations when interest rates were super low um and then they could end up maybe maybe IT ends up being that they can sell to a string cell.

Er I I have a question for guy. So let's pull up the blackstone again. Let's do five year, okay? So from the highs in twenty one and we knew IT was just an orgy of absolute like one twenty five, whether you were A V C, whether you are private, that could let's draw a horse on on a line from that break out level at one fifty. Okay.

it's almost to the penny guy was one fifty.

And then when you look at .

to the lows .

I have now, people don't think that could ever happen again, any of.

So let me say something because I what animal that has a good .

memory is an elephant?

elephant? Yes, i'm sort of like the elephant because we had the I forget who IT was, but I guess i'm not that big an elephant. But the gentleman from blackstone and he talked about their real estate holdings and he was bullish. Ed member, and you said, this doesn't make a lot of sense to me and you said, you know, I hear what you say talking in both and the stock got cut in half. Remember that?

Let me just take a so I was talking a guy like pretty senior guy box. Don't right around that time and I was making this case to him that this guy was just on and do the guy throw out genuine okay, if you're black down.

you okay. I was jay IT was a joe zito J. J, I mean, know that's now came back thing and but he's also like .

a marketing that, right? So you don't mean like i'm sure you talk to people internally and they know clients like that. So then I said to a friend of mine, I thought I was talking about this conversation and things that already starting to crack. okay. So this was now at this point, like middle late twenty, twenty two.

And I said, what's your house of you like? You only mean like what is your macro view? What is your view on rates? What and he's like, well, you know, we just had a big meeting with our like internal country and and we don't pay that much attention. I was like flavor gassed in a way you don't mean like a little bit.

I don't know, I guess, because .

they are so long. So that is. But let's go back to that chart for one second though. So you look at that one fifty level guy, you look at that one fifty moving average, it's gonna be at that break out level. And but the idea of IT going from one ninety to one fifty is something that nobody can conceive right now.

It's like the movie princess bride, inconceivable. So I don't think it's conceivable, by the way, which is why I picked .

car a group with A J song. Thanks for the question. We appreciate you being here. Got to go back to Carry the conversation. Or what about but the guy of the the six finger guy?

No, that's a guy from, killed。

My father is right. See, like she's not had this much fun middle and now because you bear the boring shows, I find so so let's go to that geopolitical conversation, the terrible conversation. You know, we spend a lot of time in september, right?

We are to trying to take out the bazoo with all the you, I mean, with all the stimulus was like every other way. There was a new bad of IT. And let's just pull up the f per second is round trip.

The entry when you see something do that, the shanghai can positive. The hank said that in a straight line, it's like unsustainable. And you know what? We got asked the question, leica unfast money every night, are you and the trying to trade, let you know you try to teeth out whether we're found IT interesting, like we don't know how far this.

but IT doesn't make sense. Guy well, members you fan of the CarOlina panthers find a chance nor should you be. I don't even think the owner is the owners guy name if they have a tepper and he's a guy that in around that time yeah said he's buying everything in china that's not nail down on paraphrase.

And you know probably within a couple days of him saying that was the highs that we've seen. And this is not casting expressions because I do think is probably continuing to do that. But this is round trip, and we actually talked about the potential to see the round trip. So the f excited that huge break out IT back and filled back to that prior higher we saw in may IT makes a lot of sense to me that this should be support.

Yeah well, except that you see that moving average and go down there. There's another gap to be filled. And uni chat about this a little bit. We can look at some of the individual names in a second.

pull up like kr. I'm sorry ah if you put your cursor to that high in middle september, I think whatever that was, you'll see that, that coincided with a huge volume day. So go back to that prior chart because this illustrates something I talk about all the time.

Markets are individual stocks or whatever. They exhaust themselves to the downside or the upside on huge volume days. And you'll see this clearest day the exhaustion took place and probably five or six times Normal volume as you can see by those bars at the bottom.

You step what was your take? As you saw again and again, the stimulus um IT was kind of manifesting itself in the stock market, you know here there or you know everywhere that sort thing, but the economic data wasn't getting particularly that much Better. Now we know the long variable lags and all that stuff. But what was you're taken that?

I mean, I I think we talked about this maybe last time I was when we were at a summer. But like this, just investing in china has been breaking my heart for years, like five years now. And every time I kind of step into IT, I I make a little money and then IT goes away.

And this happened to sort of again, I mean, maybe you're not at a loss if you stepped in before they had the, uh, similar announcement. I still feel like I I asked some other statter just that I can I talk to externally and I said, is this one of those things were like they will feel scheme if they don't kind of come at grow like actually meet their growth targets. And if that's the case, then maybe you can get behind.

And stimulus measures. I don't think they're done with stimulus, but I also think they're waiting to see what happens with the political situation in the U. S. Because they realize so much.

On what day, guy, you have a memory like an elephant. What day will be .

down in miami for the .

I member exchange?

I was fun. I was really, what did you say? What is trying to trade done to say again, broke my heart.

So I said, you, mary. elon. Marfee, anything? No, like the name.

mary. Mary, no, no, no. Maron, nothing. right? okay. SHE broke my heart that's from the movie jaws, if you recall. That's Richard to drive this in the in the boat recall yes he opened his shirt and he showed to quit and hoper quint and brody ah and he said, you wearing a sweater should no my house marion moshe broke my heart anyway, please, you should rent that a block bus week.

I actually I always take the other line, which is we're going to need a of course.

that's the line. That's a good one. So when we were down the investor summer, one of the things that the guy and i've found pretty fascinating, we've got to know.

We tell investors over the years, especially because of yours of fast money, we do a lot of events. And we've always found IT really, really interesting. I think the folks that actually looked down upon the retail investor, and we've talked about about one off line, we're not going to say, you know what happened.

but you say that to me, U S. And then you say you .

can do something on network show and guys and my investors.

But what we ve found routinely over the years um is that the finger of the pulse, you know I mean is below the surface with with individual investors. They're finding information in new in different ways the way we relative to institutions and alike. And so we got a really good sense.

We talked to dozens of people down. They were asking him what they're optimistic about, what they don't like, individual names, graff sectors and that sort of thing. And so I don't remember if we could put the aft side again.

I don't remember too many people saying I love china. I want to to china this want and look wearing if you be looking to one, your chart IT had topped out like I want to say, less than a week or earlier. We didn't say people buying the depth right here.

We we've round trip that whole move guy a named that you and I ve been keeping a close icon. Is alibaba a why? Well, it's probably one of the largest exposed name to a chinese consumer that has been struggling.

To your point. A lot of those in asia, they did did the kind of you know booy, the property market is really focused again, not just on businesses but also consumers. They have that um they have that no cloud business and the well position in a whole host of different things going on attack, but that doesn't look too different guide than what we just showed in the effect site.

Except that the magnitude of the rally was greater and the magnitude of the sell off was greater than you would expect. That individual name you have idiot sync radic rist. We look at that uptrain that granted mild up trying since the spring.

Could I go back down there? sure. But this is one of the reasons why we're going to look at and defined risk option trade. But give me your take on baba right here.

right? So maybe i'm a day or too early here on this trade, but I don't think so. So alibaba, a, if the men were the sort of length in the south, I mean, this stock since the fall of twenty, I want to say, let me drive, do this because I really enjoy look at the downtrend that the stock has been in for the last four years.

ridiculous. actually. It's been horrible. yes. So got to go a longer term. The net, you'll see exactly what i'm talking about all right along the way.

You've seen probably eight or nine, maybe ten, thirty five to fifty percent bounces in the name. Now we just saw one recently. We're back and filled and do shorter term.

We back and filed right back to the basically one hundred and fifty moving average is we have now filled in. All the gaps are created on the move to the upside. Yeah, maybe we're not at the uptrain line from the spring, but we're close enough.

And I think that you know all that exuberance that was in a trade earlier in the fall is been completely taken out. Nobody's paying attention to this name. I can wax pit about valuation in their baLance sheet, but I think this is setting up again for another one of those types of moves. Now I don't necessarily think we have to get back to that one hundred, one thousand level, but a fifty percent retracement of that high in this low gets you back to, you know, low hundred dish, one or two, one or three.

So stuff you were just talking about the multiple expansion we've seen here in the U. S. right? And you look at IT on a relative basis, the S M P is more expensive than almost every other major industry around the world. Do you think at some point in twenty twenty five, because this is kind of what guy and I thinking, you're going to see a move out of us equities given some of the uncertainty in around policy and like and you may just see again the sort of move into lower, lower expectations, lower valuations. Parts of the world, and I think china could be one of them because the sentiment to guys what has been so bad for so long.

I wouldn't say brad china though, I think you do have to pick your school. Yes, and I like the tech sector to because they are kind of global and nature and you're not nearly like as impacted maybe by terrorists successful maybe like GPU and things like that depending on what the company does. But china is really attractive like these kind of companies, baba, and things are very attractively valued. And that's why I kind of I do want to like I, like I said, keep getting my heart broken, but maybe in kind of like the right set up.

like I think that actually could .

be very good and that I don't I don't want I wouldn't say just go by china because I I think that's dangerous for a little to go perspective.

But yeah, so one of the way we're thinking about IT also the same way from the valuation perspective is trading at eight and half times next year. Earns are expected to grow, let's call low teens and that's me being conserved because the street tired, you know single digit .

nine bobs nine times next five months and on a peg tio.

it's like it's on the lowest. These are two of our great partners. We're just going to kind of get that out there, right? Let's look get away how you will define your risk.

okay. So let me go to the options chain here. Ibama stacks training about eighty five in a quarter.

I want to look at the january call spread. So let's go to genuine exploration for a second here. Um hold on, people. Um right here we are right.

And if I want to look at this kind of near the money sort of thing, so eighty five and a half that's kind of wear, I rode IT up here. And if I look at that kind of eighty seven and a half, and by the way, if you're looking at this, you see me score. Rowing here in the middle is where I got my cursor.

That's where the stock is trading right now. So if you're looking to sort of at the money sort of situation, I want to go a little bit out of the money. I want to look at this call in the eighty seven strike call is about three dollars and sixty cents. And we look up, guy, what do you say about one of five?

One, two, one of five?

Okay, so let's look at that kind of one of five. Um so i'm doing in eighty seven half one of five cosplay. You see that costs about three dollars, right? So if i'm paying three dollars on the eighty seven and a half strike, my break even is at ninety and a half i've gains up to one of five that's fourteen and a half dollars from risking three to possibly make fourteen and a half um to the upside by january expiration or so.

And so what I like about this is the rest reward. Once again, i'm see about three hundred percent of the stock prize um if I have this thing back up about six percent or so i'm in i'm playing around here, men, i'm like i'm in the game here and I can have seventy percent gains up to that one of five level on january exploration and like always and going to use a fifty percent premium stop on a trade idea like this. But again, it's round, tripped all the move. It's back toward the low expectations and poor sentiment. And any guy that up to that one seventeen, if there is some reason for this economy to reflect, if there are some reason for, you know, around the property markets, if there are some reason for more stimulus, I think you have the stack back about one hundred.

If we see the round trip, chances are that the folks in china see the around trip and definitely said something about sort of saving face and not allowing us to go to pair shaped. I think that's exactly what's going to happen over the next couple weeks. You know, my senses.

This happens sometime in early december ahead of the holiday. So I think the timing is right. I think the levels are spot on.

And I think the risk award, again, it's about risk reward, and you've waited all this time to potentially get back in. If you've waited, this is what you've been waiting for. And I know that looks scary now, but IT typically does look scary. And its worth while that.

So let's put that other chart really quickly because, you know, I showed that up trend. We showed that one hundred and fifty days. So we're furring with one hundred and fifty days here.

And again, IT doesn't mean that that's like take IT to the bank support, right? I would say if he gets to the one hundred and fifty, let's pop the other chart. A man are really quickly if he gets to the one one hundred and fifty and that goes back towards that uptrain that we've seen.

Let's do a one year for second here. Um you know like that could be the sort of level, but i'm defining my wrist down to about E V one. Know it's three bucks, right? So the stacks eighty five, but the quarter, i'm defining my rist at eighty two and a quarter, something like that, I probably don't want to be long below that.

I like to trade set up.

right? Let's look really quickly.

There's a couple of reports after I look at dell, that's I, I I been perusing all the information on dell. They're after the bell today, me and is a lots going on here with dell, right? Mean, the S M C I news expected .

the competitor and service market. And so those server go into the data centers that trained these large language models in the light here. And so the data centers of the public clouds there, and people are using these models, you rent the compute. So dell guy, let's let's here, like this is important component.

I just want to go really quickly side .

side of the AI when they reported reported twenty two percent gross Marks. So these are not high margins. What what was in video?

Who makes the chip there? Seventy six percent, right?

So you see what's going on scrape in the barrel here. But super micro was expected to come in at seventy percent Marks as they came in eleven.

They have they have their own issues.

So thanks. So so they'll .

ve reported on september forth, socks was changed about one or nine or thereabout, so was a decent quarter. They're about four analysts have made comments. Tony, second agi at bernstein, he lowered his Price target to one forty.

If you take the back in september, the average Price target for the stock was about a hundred, and I want to say one hundred and fifty dollars. According the fact that which suggested you can do the math, there's probably a forty percent move from where we are. Well, guess what that actually happened.

I think we almost got up to one fifty recently. So through the analyst lens, my senses, people think this is sort of fairly valued. Ed, what do you do here? So it's had a tremendous run since last quarter.

They have to say some pretty remarkable things in order for this to continue the moments we're seeing given the valuation to trades that. And you've already heard from invidia and you've seen the subsequent Price action. So my incantation is maybe you've get an initial bounce in the stock and but I think like this video is going .

to be short live. yeah. So let's do this really quickly.

We talk about implied moves all of the time and we're just onna give you a little explainer, a reminder how we figure that out here. So let's go to the options chain. Let me drive here a bit.

And so if i'm going to look at the um at the money struggle, that's the call premium plus the put premium and I put those things together here. I'll do IT right here. If you are paying six sixty for the one forty three call, this isn't the weekly that explores friday afternoon.

And I was going to look at the one forty three put right, you see the cost of that about three thirty six. I'm going to take the combine premium. That is the cost of the dragon, and i'm divide by the strike Price.

And if I do that, you can do the math. A guy is about nine and a half percent. So the option market is suggesting that the stock could move nine and nine percent in either direction by friday is closed.

That seems like a lot for a company that with the market cap like this. But if you wanted to make like a long premium like directional bet, you can look at that call. okay?

The one forty three calls offered at six, seven, let's say you bought that. You really bullish on the thing. You think it's going to have a big move. Well, that's only about four eight percent, right? So you take half of the employ move if you'd bought that, okay, one forty three plus a premium that you paid, you would need to .

move to one fifty one is yeah well.

or a little less you'd needed to one forty, nine seventy. Mean.

you take the strike one place.

the premium o so we tried to be gentle here in each other, you know, mean, and that's what you'd need by friday, close to make money above that, not a high probability sort of that to get above that. And how do I figure that out? I'd go to the one forty nine strike, one fifty strike.

I'd look at the delta of that. okay? And i'd say that was going to assign the probability to me.

Okay, so right now, the one forty nine has a thirty eight percent probability. The one fifty has a thirty five. Not bad, but, you know.

not great. But you're gonna bet here. And, you know, you're going to, you, onna, get to move on where I know sense and video about what a ten percent move as well, I think, and I did.

but was an interesting one step that moved after, right? I did actually have a move. I just close flat .

the day after that a little bit.

I thought in your notes, you can have a really good field. But some of the retailer you're doing and you were saying and you set the notes like days ago, that you thought that they were kind of peeling out a little bit of the NVIDIA and some of the tesla s.

So some of these ones that have been darlings over the last couple months. So taking profits, our customer r is generally they show this behavior of kind of have holding core positions and then trimming when things go up a lot and then you know buying back uh, when they go danna. And so where the uh where we've seen on the other side has been actually buying the video because he has been kind of rubble, slower, lower and then mro strategy, which is not that case. I say that's the one thing that hasn't been behaving the same way, but that's been also a top.

The obviously, yeah.

he was on the pod with .

us last week and he made this really great point, which you know wasn't lost on me, but I was a good reminder, says that your investors, they would like to move where things are moving. So if you got into the tesla, you in just the first couple days that I took off after the election, at some point, after ten days of unabated, amano, pull that up.

You might say, I listen, that was a good trade, and you might look to move on, you know that thing. And so so I thought that was really interesting. And he mention the point, if stocks feel a little bit over value, they might go the cyp. Do you know that if you start getting nervous and you're in a low ball environment, maybe a man I can pop the this year for a second, maybe you started define your risk by doing long premium, you know bullish ed to calls or barriers to puts.

I think they're not afraid to step .

in when things things good, right? Well, that that is the sort of the arc of the retail trade. I mean, the difference between the retail trade now and five years is night and day.

I mean, the levels sophists, cations, unbelieved. To quick question here, before we five thousand, we got to do crowd's strike. But well, I mean, nest question quick.

Neter f tapia, isn't that a fish? A fish invidia supported one thirty five, a man, if you can do in a hazard on a line from the high in invidia from june eighteen th, you will see that one thirty five was a prior high. Couple times we trade IT off from their prior resistance become support so yeah, that one thirty five level .

to oppoa is support will see how the playground .

back that way I tell right now that's so anyway, yeah, should be right around here.

Thank you. I mean, it's a pretty fascinating one. That's why we're spending so much time on IT.

It's also driving the .

market and IT crazy, right? So let's go to the cross, right? Because this is one of the disasters of of this year and let's just .

pull IT but IT like there nothing, nothing, nothing to see here.

We have almost got in the entire move from july.

So reports .

have to close. Guy, what do you think that is the space that you look at the I just one thing before good going. I mean, this is an area that a lot of folks think that generate vi is going to be amazing. Sort of use cases as you think about, like, you know, cybersecurity and the like.

The problems of crowd strike had where crowd strike specific. We talked him at him over the summer. The move to the downside was amazing.

We have now filled the gaps are created in that downside move. And the next point, we've basely almost got ten back to the levels that we sold off. I think IT was like three ninety ish.

So this is not a great set up for earnings in my opinion. With that said, i'm not saying to bias the one that i've liked along as palo networks, pa N W, which is expensive on evaluation, which is just coming off a bit of a cell off. I think there was actually a downgrade, but now it's getting back on the horse. So if you want to be in a name, I think pilot, if you do longer term, you'll see mean this is basically been lower left upright for quite appeared to time yeah itself along the way and valuation concerns and stuff because these stocks are expensive. But this is a place to beat them.

Yeah, let's go back to the Crystal for a second because the reports have to close. Let me just kind of go to my options chain, their AManda. And if you just kind of let me drive for a second, this is another scenario, the stock trading IT, let's call IT.

Let's look at the three sixty five strike, right? So if I look at the call premium and at the premium um that gets me to about let's cause call IT thirty box. I divided by the strike Price three sixty five, I get eight a quarter percent.

I'm either direction. And when I think about the stack and into step point, I mean, this was unmitigated disaster that everyone forgot about, right? So it's up forty .

two percent.

yeah. And this is like ninety billion on our market cap right now, right? So say to myself, okay, let's look at the valuation here and especially relative to some of the others, you see where power alto is.

It's trading in this consolidation at all time high, this next trading about eighty five times earnings, nineteen times sales. okay. So you mentioned earlier growth at a reasonable Price or I do repeat to growth the peg ratio.

This thing is like the growth has decelerated massively. So it's trading twenty five times earnings that are expected to grow. Let's caught like twenty percent would be very twenty two percent cells growth in your traditional nineteen times sales. So to me, I don't get them in. My expectations .

are thirty two percent earnings growth over the next twelve months. That's there's just a lot to me already in this time there, the high of their two year valuation range, even if they have in their passport and all ohio. So I am I just feel a lot of stuff that all the kind of like .

recovery is baked into the Price. You did music the apop last question, are we going to get stuff? And this is from um echo.

I mean, then of these people come up with this stuff, guy, and all, do you do exhaustions on low by no? To me, IT has to be high volume. When I say high volume, four, five, six times Normal volume. Whether it's on the opposite of the downside to actually create that sort of buyers exhaustion or capitulate on the upside or capitulate on the downside without the volume you don't have the exhaust of.

it's a great question for this time a year also, right? So think about this week is a holiday shorten week. So you have thursday off, you have a half done friday. Then in a month from then, we have same thing around Christmas. In a week later, we have the same thing about new year's day. One of the things i'll just say no, going back to when I started the business and like one thousand and ninety seven, black friday was always a really interesting day because e commerce names that was all the age right in late nineties, and people would just have their way with these stocks on low volume days, you know. And so sometimes that behavior is you can make money off, but you've got ta have like an hy trigger finger in my opinion, if you get the sort of move that .

you're hoping for. Yeah a holiday because always like no no one's on the desk um people are not really paying attention so you you absolutely like I remember being um just inking back. I think I was december twenty eighteen and I was one of the few people remember we had like.

A big sell off and no is around. It's like on low volumes that you can I just exaggerate like these holidays, just exaggerate whatever move is gonna en and and it's not nessy that something that will be long term, right? So you just have to watch for that. Know, this year could just be could be another 3 oclock s rally。

You know, people should pay attention to who's that definitely guilt?

No, they're doing IT. They just did IT for an hour with that. No, but they should. You can try to keep us on the rails, guy.

I'm not sure I did my best next time.

I'll be what I suggest. A little recap. Um you've got near you're call right to this kind of six thousand level on the S M P. You have a twenty twenty five outlook coming .

out and is going so you're .

going to come back again later with guy. And I want to be contrarian in the banks. We going to use the excel up to do IT.

We're going to do to find rist. We're looking at january expiration. We're looking at a four dollar put spread that actually costs less than a quarter of of the wife of that.

So that's usually a relationship that we like. We're looking at alibaba. We're doing out to find risk. We're being contrarian playing for a move, not going to all that move back. I put in some of the.

where were the five movies of junk as I was in, that were all nominated for best picture over the course. So I think three years.

I know, fAiling father one day after.

What's the fit? That's a hard one. Gene hackman was in this.

Oh, I know IT was when he was what we just in.

That's a french connection. What did we just have for an hour? What would you call this that we just show? But you like to talk about how you should be very, and in your delivery, you always say should .

be more .

a natural conversion .

of the conversation. So all five were nominated for best picture dog day did not win, did not, dear hundred, did god father in two?

These are kind of my .

time and Better. I know not .

the godfather. I know .

all godfather. You familiar with a Abraham lin? Yes, course you are. He, but he was eighteen sixty, something that's before your so my point is I still do this before my time stuff. Mean, you know.

was that of us nineteen thousand thirty nine, you've seen the most rent .

couple these weeks there. Is that one still a black bus and tower records up up on columba up there in the sixties? yes. Now .

that .

was.

dad started a video store before he.

he did before I was born.

The .

shorts.

It's what my dad is.

which is lees OK, please. That sounds american.

I think SHE been .

the way guy.

the the house in the godfather. yes. So I went to IT is shocking. We went out for to this a few years ago during cold actually, and and we went to that house is in the end of a cold, a sac and IT little looks like like, I know looks like boat house relative .

to a real house. I dt, distance with the coral family.

never go against the family moved in there.

You know that we were happy when you moved in here.

Yes, because he went to see glens of Michael date and godfather too. Yeah.

and they are.

No, that was Frankie potentially .

that moved in as well for mentor, moved in the comments at heart attack.

That was no heart when he went to see if he went into the room that used to be used to .

get this off.

Yeah.

you were you a Sunny guy or Sunny gal or Michael gal? Because freer doesn't really count.

She's got a nice to meter SHE was printing more?

Michael Sunny was, well, you say that, but Michael.

Michael was fuck and vicious. I was say.

you can say, Sunny, yeah, I listen. I've love Sunny.

What about that's all true. That all have pretty .

good. John Y, I think with carlo, carlo ross, Jenny, something was his real name. O but Sunny was my James com was not messing around.

Yeah, I mean that .

what was the name? So remember the when Sunny's beat the .

shit out of him?

Member, she's street. What is the here?

This is for there, a beer .

truck in the background. Do remember the beer. No rain, gold.

Ah, that's around, by the way. Rain, yes, I promise. right? gold. You still, I can all a manager changed IT in my inside IT went from .

my Stephanie gilt latest. You're going to have her back.

Yeah investors guilt is .

where you can find my first.

And like that.

or if he was an actor, that would be the sag the actors kill. And like day, we're back tors .

still that early .

tomorrow.

Yeah, nine thirty. So this is important. We have nine thirty A M special market call. We have a friday of the undertake part. Who's that with or .

be you and Denny, yeah and what?

Yeah, the three one. Yeah, SHE made down the meter. M.

yeah.

like me, I other guys.

All right, on that note stuff. Thanks for being here.

There was a lot of five later.