The Bessent Ascent
48:35 Share

Monday, in november twenty fifty, thanked, giving weak guys I A dinner and market call, one to a clock on the east coast. Embarrassing, embarrassing new york giants football. And I didn't watch IT, thankfully.

Yeah and and the rangers had a tough weekend too.

Then the guy, let me tell something i'm going to break some news to you, not that you at all care of sorry, AManda, and welcome folks. But I have a very bad feeling that the angers are about to move either Chris writer and or Jacob's ue, but crater is out within ub body injury. You folks seeing me on doing the air quotes, if you're listening without video, I point that out. I get a very strange feeling that they going to be some moves made, but nobody is here for that.

Then they have a two crowd favorites over there at the most world's most famous arena. You know, on hockey nights there lack going on here today, you are named the episode, which I love. We were doing a little precor.

Here you call IT. what? What is the same accent? We came to the conclusion that's pretty good, really interesting.

You in our chat this morning I mean up seventy five basis points off of a treasury pic but you look at the sugar high um it's descending. So the the best and descent could be another term that based on you know how we get here, you want to get a lot to talk about here. We're got to fifteen weeks.

We've got a lot of ephori in the markets. Our front of cast and over um IT was a great email uh category ing. All the you for um behavior, some interesting stuff on the sector front.

I mean, guy that move at home builders up on the move down in yields, pretty interesting stuff. The software in the semi uh sell off is kind of interesting. And more hits and retail stuff.

We gonna start with your goals. I mean, this is one of the biggest moves we've seen in gold in a long time. Um what you you take here, bees again, this is like some of the moves that we've seen off the treasury pic. You have seen the dollar come in a little bit. But is that is that the move .

you would expect IT in golden? The short answer is no. But then in thinking about IT, okay, they bring, they bringing in a treasury secretary who is going to, I think, want to maintain a strong us star, whether or not president trump s speak to that or not.

This is somebody that wants to, I think understands the santin of the doctor. So that obviously is a good thing. I not saying that's a bad thing, but I think that's a bad thing for gold, number one.

And I think again, you know, it's the treasury secretary. Pic is a swag. Some of the concerns of market participants who might have been voicing those concerns via long gold. So I think that's all part of parcel. Now I think it's going to be short live the cell off will see if i'm right and or wrong, but i'll tell you, no, I didn't see a sixty five dollar move to the downside coming in gold, especially the way IT bounce you know basically off the hundred and fifty days. Not exactly but basically .

yeah we detailed um a bullish trade in gold futures last week um and we're kind of get into that almost that stop out point a little bit. That up trend was very important to us, but we do see that one hundred and fifty day down there, which kind of flattening out you know twenty five uh o three or so. So we're interested to keep an eye that let's just breaking down the best and um you know kind of philosophy a little bit.

Guy, he wants to cut that deficit spin um from you see that right there from xiao right? So it's currently running at what six to seven percent of GDP wants to get that down to three percent. He, listen, no matter your politics, no matter who you thought should be in the seat, one where another, if they can accomplish anything towards that, you only mean like that would be fantastic as long as IT doesn't have to come at the cuts.

You know certain things that we think we're all focused on. What was your a sense for this pic because we had Kevin war, somebody that you've interviewed on stage over the last few years, which I think would have been a very suitable pic, right? Given his um you know background in the fed was a couple of mark roan of Apollo. You can see a whole host of maybe conflicts of interest guy, but again, probably would have been a steady hand thoughts on based.

Now these were the two guys, I mean, this was one and one eight, and you can flip flap. I mean, Kevin walsh, I know I might drop the names. They have spent time with them.

As you mentioned, i've interviewed him, so I would have been fine with him, but I never really thought he was going to get at IT because he's typically bit a more hawkish individual. And I don't think that really flies well with this administration. And again, that's not you know, that's just stating fact.

I think I be the reason get IT the first time around. But Scott at here is, I mean, he's a pro and the fact that he comes out with this plan, I mean, I think the market is looking very favorably on that. Some of the risk assets, even bitcoin, for example, is having a little bit of the leg lower today.

I don't know necessarily if that's undertake him, but clearly, gold is. So if he's going to somehow get these books in order, I think one of the reasons that yellow are moving as low as they are today is on the back of that as well, then it's not a bad thing. I mean, it's not a bad thing. IT just remains be seen to be able to do IT.

Yeah I mean, a lot of those stuff though IT is also like long range sort of goals, right? So you got to see some incremental um sort of progress towards that. Obviously, a huge part of his thought process is getting those two thousand seventy tax cuts, you know, to make them permanent.

But again, you know, the tax cuts kind of fly the face of what we need to do with inflation. But that could be accept conversation with a great conversation with liz Young Thomas about that very issue on the on the tape park cast, which probably should have drop by now in your favor. Podcast store guy, we get to talk about our friend Lorry calva open there at rbc.

We've talked about over the last few weeks or so a lot of these strategies, entrepreneurs each other to kind of raise their twenty twenty five Price objectives in the S P lorrigans to sixty seven hundred um I believe sixty six hundred to you have a um you have an as appear on sixty thousand at least in the futures you know ten percent going forward. That glories also saying we could see a five ten percent decline. Thoughts on that because I kind of feel like if we were to close here or higher in the year, n guy, we're going to see some targets that look more like seven thousand.

And the not so money earlier this year, I think, was mid summer or so. He made a similar call for the end of this year where he thought you see Operate trajectory, but he thought you could see you know some rocky roads that had under the exact term that he used. But he wanted being right because we also what happened on August fifth and into a certain system, what happened and only september.

So our calls have been good. And I think this calls in a similar vein. You know, she's continued to be blish, but he thinks there's a chance you see this five ten percent move to the downs, which is not inconceivable.

And we get to right back in terms of levels where we get down to back in August, not the absolute level, but in terms of trading down one hundred and fifty day moving average. So the move SHE snicking up would be reminded of what we saw a few months ago. But only instead of getting a stand about, you know, fifty one hundred to sell, i'll get a stand of the moving average hours about fifty five hundred.

And change over time. Decay comes in probably around fifty six hundred. So you could start to do the math and figured out, you know, we'll see how that plays itself out.

Today is a fascinating day if IT were to continue on this trajectory or you made a new all time honey S N P. Today, you reverse at one point before we actually did our show few minutes ago. Yes, and p was actually lower. We've bounce since then, but I do think today's worth watching just in terms of the Price action in the broader market.

Then yeah, we talk about this all the time. If you look at that november six gap, you know that stands out like a sore thur, right? And we had a gap lower just a week before.

And so you know, we talk about all the time. I mean, gas usually get filled at some point. So we're up three and a half percent from that kind of fifty seven, fifty level in the futures.

And you know at some point, we need to fill that in to your point about where that one hundred and fifty days is going, guy, it's probably gonna at a level that's down you know five, six percent from the all time has I guess the hard thing is what causes that, right? And so at some point, I think and you've been right on this to suggest that maybe yells don't go too much lower, right? Maybe the fed pauses a little bit in cutting the fed funds.

And if inflation readings, and we know we have the P C, E on wednesday morning, if they stay put, if we see the sort of end of disinflation of inflation, right, what's some point that multiple expansion that we've seen in the S M P five hundred, which is larger, largely had to do with the fact that two things, in my opinion, is that productivity gains from, you know, A I. Working their way into other parts of the economy, not just kind of the tech names that have basically accused most of the value, right from the excitement around this, but also the prospect of yields going lower, right, which should make evaluations that much more attractive. So at some point, we might have a cell up that comes. I don't nowhere based on the fact that inflation is kind of picking up again and fields aren't going down much lower.

Yeah, you know it's interesting. You say you don't know what's going to cause IT, and i'm not you're right. I don't know either bit. I don't think anybody for saw what was going to happen in only August in terms of that yen move and in the subsequent move in the s and p and obviously.

The move in the vicks to me, the move in the vicks, you know, there are bunch of stories to see you without question, and I don't want to put to find appointment sis, you say. But the move that we saw on the vict in August to me was sort of a pray lude of what can happen. I mean, there's no reason, in my opinion whatsoever to have had a move of that magnitude volatility.

And next up to, I think at one point north of sixty years, the market did sell off, but the self was not nearly not nearly commentate IT with the move that we saw on the vick. So something broke that day and think that it's fix and it's not gonna. En, again, I think it's foosh.

I think maybe that was a tremor. I don't think that was the main event. I do think there are a lot of people that still think there's another lake hier in this volatility index.

I say Kitty stanton or Kitty stock. And excuse me, SHE comes on fast money from time to time thing. In july, he said that her work suggested that we were in for a period of volatility.

When we typically get in these periods of volatility, they last anywhere from six to nine months. So that should take us into early next year. And I agree with that. Now doesn't look like that now um but you know IT never does stand as you know didn't look like that on August first either .

yeah we had some fun kind of amy the episode dunk s catches hits us, guy said. You don't undo forty years of spending in forty months, which I I think makes a lot of sense. We can be hopeful that and I think that's what the S M P. Futures were suggesting um this morning. But at some point the rubble has to hit the road.

And you think about the new administration, the new treasury you know apparatus doesn't get really in place until probably at some point in february, a lot of time between now and then when you think about what fed uh chair you know power isn't climate to do be interesting because i'm assuming that best and probably knows fed chair power at least modestly, you don't mean and maybe there are this two source of folks that might be able to kind of find some common ground. Not that the treasury is supposed to have any meaningful impact and what's going on the fed um but the fed you monetary policy will certainly affect what the treasuries inclined to do. So again, interesting stuff are, you know I don't know one thing guy that caught my eye this morning would be let's look at the um the rustle two thousand and the small caps the venice here um you know you i've been talking about that sort of consolidation that we've seen for a while.

You earlier this year you saw break out of that range. And then this been really out out performance by the small caps of late. So to what you think, here's this this apple .

epic double time. Interesting these these more cap, whatever is whether this etf, whatever you're looking at working on the R T Y right now um on A C M E day and this suggest that will write up against that prior high. So one would think this is a logical place for us to store a lot of this, by the way, on the bacteria small regional banks, which I understand the math behind that I don't necessarily agree they should be doing what they're doing.

But if a man or quickly can put up an I W M chart over that same period of time, it's gona look a lot different now, constructed differently, which is the reason why but one will show a break out of the form of the I W M. The R T Y, obviously, is showing right up against surprise high. So actually I thought, you know what? Actually I thought the I W M was worse than I thought.

We actually broke up. But they can look early, similar. So here you are done. This is your moment of truth. They both are making these topping patterns on prior house.

Yeah, what do you make? And you mention this earlier to me. You see you have the two ten spread um inverting once again even by a few basis points here.

thought somewhat .

what does that mean for small caps? You don't mean. So like in general, I think that's probably one part of this story.

yeah. So I think this is the marked interpretation. You know they're just looking at the move higher in yields.

Now I know today the yellow are not moving higher, but generally speaking, the move higher in yields as a sign that the economies doing Better and the most economically sensitive names and a stronger economy should be the ones that sort of are most benefit by IT. And I think that's what we're seeing. But I think there's something a former and the fair ious going on.

And again, I don't know what this sudden reversal in the field curve suggest. Again, we went from, I think in one point two basis points are steep into now this small fibs, six spaces points in version. Now I don't know what that speaks to.

I know what what's happening below the surface. Two year yell, i'm going up in a meaningful way. You obvious have the back of today and the new yield, we'll see our plays out.

You know, again, I will say we should we step in, in the form of ten year yields getting back on their horse. But if for some magical reason, ten years continue to drop from here, and two years they sticky, will write back in an inverted field curb that don't think anybody expected. And, you know, I wish I was smart of the day what I meant, but I don't know. You go back historically and look at that prolong ged period of an inversion only to subsequently recipe and to have IT inverted again. You know I don't know what that four tense at all and maybe there's smart people out there to do.

I don't yeah I wonder if the two year guys reflective of the fact we've seen the fed funds, C M, A fed watch tool, you've seen the probability of cuts you need to decrease dramatically, maybe as suggesting that maybe that's more torr's tie told inflation and maybe the ten year weakness has something to do with the outlook for growth, especially an environment where inflation um is picking up.

You also said something earlier about the best in sort of doctor and if you will, about a stronger dollar, right? And you know we've heard from you know president trump about what he thinks of a stronger dollar. Let's pull up this two year chart.

Um I think it's kind of interesting here you look at this kind of one of seven level, kind of a big level here um in the U S. Dollar index that would be the dicky. And so again, the dick I was running with the the ten year yield that bottom out of what three point six percent found its way up to four and a half percent.

I could put that chart up there. Um and then I want to go back and I want to look at a longer term chart because, you know going back to when trump one in that surprise in late sixteen, we saw lots of things really we saw the dollar rally um a bit. And so there's the the first one you that goes back to you know the start of twenty three.

And then let's go to the longer term one here because I think this is kind of interesting guy if you look at even longer term, let's do from the start of two thousand um in sixteen because this kind of tells a little bit of a story guy. You had the dollar really top out in the beginning of seventeen. So maybe that had do with the rate cuts in the light or the the, you know, the prospect of tax cuts.

But that was a big move, lower in the dollar. And then I got back towards those levels, you know, right after the cove, its kind of scare. So what is that what does this chart mean to you as IT relates to the the new administration?

yeah. So this is a good one to look at because the strength of the dollar today doesn't really make a whole help, a lot of sense in the form of what we all are doing, but the rhetoric around IT makes sense in the form of again, the new treasury secretary understanding and waning and believing in the sanctity of the us. Tower and the need for the us.

Tower to be you know the currency globally and um you know A A strong dollar he thinks sort of a sway is a lot of the concerns of the investment community that flies in the face, by the way, of what former president now president elect trump s said you know he has said publicly that he thought the dollar was too strong and he makes our goods less attractive and when we have thirty five and a half trillion dollar debt, obviously a weaker doll helps to again fix that problem. So you have one guy talking about the need for a strong doll. You have the president like speaking the need for a strong economy but not necessarily a strong dollar.

Something's to give here and I don't know what IT is. So usually a stronger dollars, a bit of wrecking ball for um equities. IT hasn't been obviously yet, but this is all playing part. I think when we rent, one of the reasons gold is down as much as IT is, is on the back of the dollar move.

Yeah when you think about the dollar, the strong dollar and you just use the term recking ball, I made a lot of our biggest companies in the us. right. Some of the biggest stocks in the us, they get a disproportion and about disproportion, they get a lot of their sales from outside the us, right.

So the strong dollar kind of can be um you know weaken effect on those earnings. Uh you mentioned bitcoin guy um bitcoin since the election is up, what forty seven percent it's up about a hundred percent off of the August lows. You think of IT from going to one trillion to two trillion dollars um in market cap and this been some wealth creation there, right? And so you know, this one is kind of interesting because we talked about strong dollar of lakes, strong bick coin, strong goals. You I mean, like they seem to kind of disconnect a little bit from that dollar relationship.

Well, well, there's a huge gap in this chart because all the way, probably done about seventy eight thousand or so in terms of bitcoin. I think obviously, you've heard what's going out of microstrip gy. They announced more purchases of bitcoin, I think through up to about three hundred and forty thousand or so bitcoin, their bounty that might be off by a few, but you get my drift.

So that couple with the fact that this new administration is seemingly encrypt friendly and you get your move. Is that the last gasp? And again, if you look at microstrip gies today, if you want to pop and M S T R chart real quake, you know, this one has been out performing in a meaningful way, the underlying basically commodity, whatever you call big coin, that associated with that.

So theoretically, any drop in bitcoin in a meaningful way, you going to have a three four x move in micro strategies. And you're seeing a little that now over the last couple days, but no one bit going up again. I don't know what to tell you.

I mean IT really seems to be the executant surrounded is um as as much as i've seen in since two thousand and fourteen when we started talking about at an earnest ah and there's a lot of excitement. We'll see if that excitement is short lived or if there's more gas in this tank. But now you see moves like you're seeing over the last couple days where IT pushes up and reverses. I think that's a little bit concerning.

Yeah and you know going back to microstrip gy for second. So you mentioned IT IT bought five and a half billion, a more dollars worth of bitcoin into your point. Three hundred forty thousand is crazy.

And citron and research as a short time report company came out. I guess on that day, IT was above five thousand. Huge reversal. Everything closed down like twenty .

seven percent, about five hundred.

And yeah and you know IT was trading at three hundred, uh, or thirty percent to IT N A V, or three hundred percent to its N V premium. Yeah premium. Which again, that's a dangerous sort of thing. I mean, the bar on this things expensive, the weight moves around. So that's one of the ones I think you and I with both degree um is you know deep bend of the pool sort of stuff if you want to I don't want to get two in the weeks here.

but I know and I can do this. I know she's extraordinary ily well qualified, but if you can overlay a microstrip gy, change a bitcoin, just do IT from, like this summer, you'll see exactly what we're talking about. I mean, bitcoin is up that it's probably up what maybe forty percent.

okay. So there you go so you can see exactly the there is a math for you. You just did IT you know once up forty percent, which is that is bitcoin, which is exactly what I said.

The others up, you can see IT right now one hundred and fifty two percent, but at its peak was up more than two hundred percent. So there's a disconnect there in terms of one verses the other. That doesn't make sense to me.

You've said IT, if you want to be long bitcoin, be long bitcoin. But playing through M, S, T R, although it's worked before, like you know, IT worked into late last week, I mean, sometimes is gonna snap there in a meaningful way? Yeah.

couple of things that we just want to hit. Here are actually three things we want to talk about, home builders related, you know the Price action today to what's going on in yields right in the expectation for um you know mortgage rates. And I also think again, I mean this this kind of video story is pretty interesting of an interesting chart there.

But let's start with the sectors here, guy, for setting and just kind of look at the things that are out performing right now. Um on the day, I mean, there there's some stuff going on here that I think is pretty interesting. We talked about the X H B, which doesn't kind of fall in the year up four percent.

But there's some good Price action a in industrial. There's some good Price action in the X R T, which is the retail budget earnings this week. And retail.

where do you want to start with this? Wow, the one you know, it's fun. The energy is is always at the bottom of the power.

But the one you just said, I mean real estate and home builders, I mean, that's the outline today. I mean, just we just had the X H B chart. So men and might as well throw IT up again.

Mean, this is a an amazing move. Uh, today, it's all in the back of, excuse me, what we saw in yields and maybe again, some of the commentary of the incoming treasury secretary. I think people again, I think a lot of the concerns have been eased on the back of his announcement.

So people are taking their cue from there. But as you just said, the doug said, no, you don't undo forty years of access over the course of a few months. IT takes a lot long in the net. So I think this exuberance to me, at least in the whole builders, is misguided.

And now this can last but pop up poult homes, for example, any of the home building stocks, which seemingly started to turn lower on the back of yields going higher and the potential for the economy to start to slow, and maybe the unemployment rate. And then you see a move like this. I mean, it's really, you know, it's a staggering move and a very short period of time.

Well, pull up the toll. T, O, L. I mean, this, this is, you look very different than paul ty, right? And so this is obviously a higher answer thing. I mean, you look what's going on there. I mean, that's what you would call a pretty beautiful breakout.

And you know maybe some of this technical, you know, I mean, I I don't know, but let's switch gears, guy, and let's go over this in video um I think is pretty interesting. So here you have this thing down three percent. You mention IT earlier to me like since the earnings you know like this is I you want start here with with the in video because I think this is interesting.

So this is a five year chart. This is a log chart. Okay, you see that break out on that gap.

So that was that first big gap guy that we had on that first big beat and guide higher, okay? And you can see what's gone on here, the consolidation, the moves higher consolidation. Well, here we are made the new all time high.

After result, we've seen the deceleration um in earnings growth and sales growth. You could still make the argument that these stock, this stock in particular, trade cheap relative to growth expectations for next year. It's in line the P E.

To growth about one or so. We still agree that Price sales is pretty expensive. So we had this reversal today. It's contrary to what's going on in the rest of the market.

Is drawing the ssh down, is drawing t sm taiwan and semi, which obviously makes eighty five percent of high and GPU. We know that that's in videos s market share, right? The great partners here.

So those two stocks are training down there, thirty five percent. Yes, I am. What do you see when you look at this chart? You see that, you know, hundred and fifty days down there, one twenty. You see the stock at one thirty seven and really touch.

wow, this is, you know, this is what I see. So people were talking about ninety percent E, P, S. Growth year over year.

Ninety close percent revenue growth year over year. And I said, yeah that's that's unbelievable. But then I said, okay, where was the stock a year ago and the stock is tripped over that period time.

So you're getting know the stock is being rewarded for that. So when people say you're missing at its quite yeah, i'm not missing IT. I know what the numbers are, but you have to look at the stock performance over that period time as well.

The other thing is, if you wanted do a short of term charge amenity, you know we made a new all time high in a video last week, and actually on the day IT did IT traded low, and I think you close unchanged on the day you see what we're doing now. So what you starting to see hence up is, yeah, the magnitudes in terms of absolute dollars are extraordinary, but the percentage terms the beats and raises are not what they were the year, year and a half ago. And I think the market is starting to understand IT.

You know by almost by definition, this is gonna slow now the margins of hung in there, which makes sense, but you've talked about competition coming and competition comes by definition, margin starts to contract. Now people say, you know, know your wrong guy because they have a five year head start and they basically corner the market. You've heard that before with some other stuff as well.

So i'm not convinced that's gonna the case. And when you start seeing, you know again, periods of time when they report earnings and the Price action is in what you expect and actually goes the other way, you have to take notice. And so that's why you know brought IT up. I'm taking notice and i'm looking at that sort of reversal day last week. I'm looking at the subsequent action on the same hm, something doesn't make IT will make sense to me, but it's clearly not making sense to the market.

Yeah to the headline today to your point about competition, I mean, amazon is one of nvidia's largest customers and they announced that they are rap up efforts to chAllenge in video in the artificial ai a chip market. So again, we've been hearing microsoft, we've been hearing amazon. We've been hearing that they've been designing their own I N G P S. I mean, I think they were all wish that A M D had coming out with something that could compete right, rather than kind of take the a the lead in having to design, you know, a competitive chip. And I think that's one of the reasons why um you know invidia is down today. Are I get tomorrow after the clothes we ve got a bunch or maybe tomorrow preopening and after the clothes we got a bunch of retailers reporting tough set up right into this promotional period, right into black on friday, on friday, which is like the one that your most tracking as far as interest extrapolate to the consumer? Yeah.

I think that's right for me. It's best by and I can be like, why is the best by? Well, I think that one sort of encompasses everything that we talk about now.

Again, best buy is the stock that I want to say made at all time high in the four of twenty twenty one, like a lot of things. And we've had this conversation numerous times sold off. It's been trading sideways.

So that set up to me is actually sort of interesting here. Mean, if there's ever going to be a quarter where they should get some upward moments. Now the time you know you put in those laws of around sixty box, I want to say lake twenty twenty two and again, late and twenty twenty four.

So this one to me should be the setup s should be pretty good, especially given some of the things we've heard on the electronic front. So we'll see how that plays out. But out of the all the names. This one to mean encompasses everything that we sort of look at.

Yeah you can make the argument that you on this you know basis, I mean, the stock gets very poorly. A lot of detail act very poorly. And so we know that amazon to retail numbers have been um really good. So i'm with you on this one. I find IT more you know more interesting than some of the others like an A N F has been a huge performer, you know like some of that you know a parl stuff is very fickle, you know I mean like we know that the housing related stuff, if they want to pull up r age been really, really good. Williams cama, another name that you know you've been tracking here. But R H you know like again on a longer term basis doesn't um act particularly well but look at Williams only here I mean like you can make the argument guide that that thing is about to make you know a pretty good break out after two and a half years or so but um not particularly interesting to me now and again.

we've talked about this a number of times but in the stark out performance of walmart versus target, I think walmart made a new old time. How did a costco it's all time high late last week, worth than a couple dollars of its all time high in walmart. Costco wins in this environment that thought the dollar stores should not win.

If you're in the middle and retail right now, you get in smoke. So you really gotta pick aside almost. And it's either, you know, you try to replicable warmer t can do, which nobody really can.

Targets try, they failed cos cos its own animal as well. And then the other side of the equation, the high and retailers like a Williams cama, continues to crush IT. Uh, I don't know. Well, I think I know if that speaks to IT speaks to one side of the equation, doing extraordinary well and a huge trade down from everybody else to the walmart and costco, which is great for them. But you have you have to ask yourself, what does that mean about the economy that we're and especially when the lower end .

is getting crushed yeah um before we get to a couple questions um let's pull up the S M P E I the the future start here because I want to outline something guy and I get your take if you think it's interesting as as much as I do so they can pull up one year here, uh, really quickly. So if we look at that break out level, are at so the july high, I think the july seventeen was kind of fifty seven, forty, amen.

And when you draw a horizon line from the july high, and let's call that, you know what we're talking about here is fifty seven, twenty five or something like that. okay. Now let's draw an uptrend from those August lows. Then let's throw in one hundred and fifty day moving average.

which I think is the fly. My good as he is, just these .

charges are awesome. We love him from this kind of fifty seven and seventy seven guy. That is the a hundred and fifty day.

Okay, I look at this and I said to myself, okay, the all time high on eleven and eleven that was, you know, a few days is after the election, we had that big gap day. We kept them kind of inching a little higher, but consolidate. Then we kind of sold off a little bit, then we can inter way back.

You get the gap today on the last cabinet official, okay, which is treasury. So we get IT. We already shows you the inter chart. How can sold out.

So if I look at this and I want to a sell out, like if I want to put a sell on this thing, and maybe I believe, you know, someone like Lorry covina, that we get this kind of ten percent rally by the end of next year. But he also said we could see a five percent rally. Maybe there's some digestion.

I'm going to sell that thing right here, let's call IT around six thousand in the futures. And if I look at eleven eleven that was the high IT was about sixty, fifty three or something like that. Maybe I use a stop that's just below maybe it's something like I don't know where broke down the other day um just a bob I don't know, like a few handles you know in the above these today's current highs.

okay. Like so if I look at today's high was like sixty forty and wont stop IT there. And my initial target might be that break out level of fifty, seven, four years. So and then maybe we get to move back towards one hundred and fifty. What do you think .

of those levels? What do you think the levels speaks for exactly with lorcha's? Sine is talking to the move.

She's borch overall, but he thinks this would pull back along the way. So the stop is right. I mean, close enough. I mean, is basically today's high, which wasn't all time high, is right around there. The first level of support is that trend line.

But ultimate, you are looking for those prior highs, which is you just said as fifty seven and a quote or sell, and the ultimate move being down one hundred and fifty moving average. So that's how you trade futures to find stops, look for levels, to take profit, look for the ultimate objective. And then there's something you can do called by the double when in this case, you buy back your short and actually go long. But we'll talk about that probably .

another time yeah and just to be cleared, you know if we had to move back towards those july hides, you know that kind of break out level is also the level that we bounce off of earlier um you know this month or so, that's why about five and a half percent or so, which again, the timing of which you know no one can come to you kind of figure that one out. But I think if you look at those levels, you continue to trade IT technically.

Let's see where yields if they bounce back. You don't mean if you add a ten year back at five and or four, nine percent or so. I mean, these things can be testing, in my opinion, at fifty, seven, fifty level.

So a couple of question. So ala hAndrail asme show, and i'm sorry to get to you, but he says, so get out of the gold or wait for the in place report. Now I I don't think all a hundred you get now.

I mean, look, I didn't expect move. I was very clear about that. But the gold trade to me is still intact. And this one day or two day, move on the back of the treasury secretary that seemingly going to be a little more.

And I don't know um what's the word i'm looking for concerned about all the problems that i've been concerned about actually do something about IT. I don't think that's necessarily a reason to get that a gold. So central banks continue to buy.

I think you stay with the trade. Today is a painful day. I get IT. I don't think anything is changed. This is a name because why not asking about macao mcdo? Libra comes out meli. You know, I actually looked at to the other day, this is the two thousand and hour stocks so some like people are actively trading this. But in nineteen hundred or soul was a high back in january of twenty twenty one. We traded up to IT again in september of twenty twenty one, then fell off the the Cliff um we obviously blew through that earlier this year, but past resistance become support so you know this sort of one hundred and eighty level or so, I think you can trade from the wrong side against that. I don't think anybody's trading melly dam, but those of the levels to look .

at yeah and you know this is one of the single best stories again and again that you hear as IT relates to a consumer in south america, you know expected to do three four percent earning this growth next year on twenty five percent cells growth, right? So I look at this thing is training about forty five times next year and forty times sales. You have a gross margin.

You know it's about forty seven, forty six nine, forty seven percent. I mean, it's a pretty it's a great story. It's a reasonable valuation.

But again, I mean, this is one of those really hard names you know you might want to just look at, you know I need tf that kind of tracks, you know like brazil or somebody like that, you don't have the idiosyncracy risk. But you know that being said, amazon's north american um you know um e commerce is been good. We know that walmart been good. But how do you take you know mcadd library and kind of extra that to what's been going on you um from here in the U S. Is a tough before .

we get out of here, Chris sell is asking why in the sam hell I never heard that is car vine. And you could pull the question trading at the levels is trading at look, part of this and i'm not going to make you bar, but the first move, the earlier move a couple months ago was on the back of short covering. Now this is just people getting ridiculous, has become a bit of a mean stock.

The valuation doesn't make any sense at all up a longer term charge demand. And you'll see, I mean, with another, I don't know, another maybe seventy hours or so, maybe a little bit more than that. We're going to be at levels we saw on the summer of twenty, twenty one, probably more than that.

And you get my point, we made a multi year high today. Clearly, valuations don't matter. This is something that danny mosses is talked about for a while.

You did have embarrassed to boss reversal that I think Carter worth pointed out way earlier this year, probably sometime in july or for or August. But now just getting in the the mode of the ridiculous, I can't speak to what the options are. I can't speak what to cost to borrow, but I think the stock is actually going to be on bar time pretty soon. If he gets .

through three hundred, yeah the the only thing i'm going to say is that this year, they're spoke to get back to kind of peak revenue. The company for the first time in twenty twenty four is going to be profitable, both on adjusted in a gap basis. So I think that's something that some investors um are looking at.

So you know again, trading at a multiple earnings that is next year um over a hundred um to me at your point doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense. And you know one thing today, guy might be going on like we just talked about home builders and how they're trading a bit Better with yields coming in. Look at the autos um look at G M.

And look at ford and look at automation um they're trading pretty well, I suspect, on some pretty similar reasons. Now obviously, the four you meet this case again and again, the stock basically doesn't go anywhere ever. And over the last few decades.

But it's interesting to see the automation um in gm trading higher on this. Do you think that's what's going on? As IT relates to yields?

Think the yield move is a big part of IT without question. You know, again, I think there's this this basin trade speaks to um euphorbia around somebody that understands the problems we face and his debt and wants to do something about IT. And that take will sort of speak to an economy that gets back on terraform and basically a government um in terms of our debt levels that gets back and to some someone s of reality.

But again, as doug said earlier, I mean these things do not and I think he by the way, this is not a detection on him. I think he understands that and I think he gets its not can be that easy to do, but he somebody did at least understands that there is a problem, think the market is getting ahead of itself in terms of what he can do in a short period of time. So it's not in a detection on him or it's not anything that he said. He's saying all the right things. I think the market is just taken to be on and running a way too far, too fast.

Yeah, no doubt here. Interesting stuff today. Let's see how we close because the rate move was something that more so than the stock move guide like of this is is probably the bigger story.

The dollar move is probably the bigger story. Um and let's see how you know stocks kind of content on evaluation standpoint, expectations for growth uh and the light here. So again, eight, listen, we covered a lot of ground.

You know like on wednesday, we have some special programming we're going to be doing. So we know a lot of guys going to head out of town that sort of thing for the holidays. I certainly am.

We're going to do a special market call. Nine thirty. I am right on the opening lizy's.

g. Thomas is going to be back with us. We have Carter tomorrow, regular time at.

you know, I don't know, I don't know. Jobs is with us tomorrow.

Okay, maybe is that maybe just in me again, which is fun, you know, I mean, like we enjoyed maybe we can talk a little bit about the menu that we're going to get going for thursday. I don't know some of your favorite .

we might have a special Robin hood guests with us tomorrow though too then. So stick around for that.

Yes, we actually I think we do we have difficultly guilt who was on the point what a few weeks ago we were down at the um robbin hood summer, which was pretty interesting. Um we are also. Also gonna have uh some special programme on the on the tape that drops on friday speu danny of me, 这个 a lot fun。 Oh lastly, you and I we're doing this web on our with our friends from fact set.

Look at this thing, transforming the financial leadership A S role in revolutionary technology and workflows. We had full snow, the CEO of facts that on fast money, I want to say, was IT, was IT earlier in the year, was IT february or so. We are talking about how they are integrating our intelligence ence to benefit their customers.

We are those customers. We use fact set, and they have a lot of really cool tools, how they're using IT. But this is also with some of their thought leaders and how they're seeing this work yourself, a work this technology to other workflows in other real quake.

the markets rewarding facts that know we get through those levels. We saw in december of twenty twenty one, I think, was about four, eight years. So the stock has been flat lining for the last couple years.

But now I think the market starting to take on notice of some of the AI initiatives that they have going on there. And the stock is acting and kind IT didn't print five hundred last week, but I got pretty closed then. Yeah.

no doubt we got to last stuff going on even in a holiday shorten week, obviously where I could be on thursday, friday, a half day in the market. It's guy, we're going to take that off. Good football like some good rivalry on friday and we have in a fell there's .

an n film game on friday.

Yeah, it's an amazon. It's an amazon and a amazon.

So you have to go to the store to watch IT. No.

you don't have to go. Well, you have to go to amazon prime. I think .

where's where you go? Where is that?

Let's go. Let let's check this out for a second because you know, our Michael in her curb street have been doing the amazon thursday night game.

Oh, I didn't not. That's an amazon thing too.

yeah. Um amazon s this .

game on friday. So you told me this a national football the game on friday. Yeah, on the back end of the games on thursday.

i'm pretty sure they've been doing last year. Maybe i'm wrong last you always right .

I mean they're really you understand the ruining the league right for our eyes yeah what they .

don't get on so you ready for this black friday um it's gonna the raters versus casey. Um and so what they're doing on friday, it's kind of cool, whether you like IT or not, but it's kind of cool for um amazon. So they're going to basically put up all these black friday deals on amazon little Q R codes throughout the game. That's what they did last year. I thought IT really interesting that .

I I really to plain that to me. So so when you're watching a game that they put up a code.

yeah, they're na put up code. They have they have advertisements built in to a bunch of stuff that you can buy on amazon. There code, no. So but what .

does that do for you? I understand .

OK go because .

you're killing two birds with .

one stone now. So how take advances of what there usually benefit is from cyber monday is to be coming up on monday. So amazon flip the script, you're basically putting an nfl game on friday because they have the thursday night thing, but on thursday on a thanksgiving, there's only three games, right?

There's fox or cbs and there's probably um E S P N. They have the three games or maybe any fell network. Now there's a game on friday. So amazon's flip in the switch or flip in the script and they are specially basically saying by friday, don't go to the stores, sit home, watch football in the n fell and buy stuff on the amazon. You see what .

i'm doing here yeah now i'm sure that I can't wait to do that. Yeah so you said, so you set in a chair with your phone yeah and then that that Q R code thing comes up. You you put your phone up like this yeah but by the way, and then then capture something.

Ninety percent of americans, when they are watching T, V, have their iphone or their android in their hands. anyway. They're always doing something different than just watching the I, I .

watched a game. Why can't you just watch the game and not you in general what .

you you often tweet during games, at least you .

used to when I was on. Now the long time you twitter are you so that but you exciting .

anymore you to be .

you know, once in a while I probably tweet something today.

I don't know what but yes, your to your tweet is probably down .

one percent for the is down eighty .

percent yeah I don't even have IT a man has got my handle our handles at risk versus I don't even .

music and you know I can't wait to friday, the black friday football game with the Q R codes so you can buy like what do you buy? Like chiefs gear. So you can just.

just, just all the sort of deals that you are. Quick question for you on the nfl here really quickly. People, so the chiefs have been the spreads have been really .

tight on the first five league.

Alright, that's interesting.

okay. I mean, the lions are Better than everybody. The eagles, all the sun look like what you can't in second half, they can be stopped.

There's a second best team at football and nobody y's talking about the biking. There are two lost team. I mean, they are just sort of flying under everybody's rare screen. So I mean, you know you look around the city.

you just named a bunch er and what .

I do think the raven can figure stuff out. I don't sleep on the charges. I mean the chief look, you can argue with the chiefs record without question the bills I think of the class and A F C um but the chief s have been doing with smoke and Myers, I mean Caroline, that took them basically almost over time yesterday.

So like the record is what IT is. I respect the how out of IT, but there are team that can get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Don't don't you know i'm just saying I got you.

I got to how .

is is not I mean, they they win. I get IT. But so nice, good. Is that record.

Suggest you let me ask you this. So we have the harbor bobl tonight. So ravins at charges you seven, four ravins versus the seven and three charges who you taken in this one?

This is a game where the rave and I go there and show me who's boss, but i'm a big herbert guy. So I think the charges can win this game. You know there's and by the way, the stealers, although, you know, they think they lost on thursday night to the Browns steals, are good football team to.

So the fc, like the N F. C, is top Perry. I think you get the eagles, you got the lions and the vikings. And then is a big as a pretty treatment of, and there is a pretty big dramatic drop off. And I have see got four, five team, you know, super ball.

my opinion yeah and you like the bills to i'm sure love .

the bills and I love the fact that to jets suck. I love that they can be miserable enough for me.

I should we let the people go? You and I can talk football little bit here.

but um let people go. Big fast money shows night then Nathan, i'm not there, but you enjoy.

by the way, I I want to say one last thing. So as long as i've been in the market since late nineties that shorten that wednesday afternoon, which is really low volume into thanksgiving, a lot of people are traveling, the markets close, then you have a one o'clock close on friday. Often times you see a lot of consumer or antigen at really well into that low volume.

You shorten week. Um I could see amazon like one of things I just find interesting is that amazon has basically tried to insert themselves into a black friday conversation. Everybody likes ana fell, right? I know you don't like the scheduling, but if it's going to be an e commerce sort of situation too, I mean, maybe amazon runs that guy I am saying is interesting stuff, okay?

People buy too much list there down to I just i'm not IT makes my head heart IT does I mean, it's a you're right people watching the games you go to you watch everybody still in this with the watching like.

yeah, just do the games. I got somebody right. Well, we got a lot of stuff going on this week. We hope you enjoy today's program, will be back tomorrow. Stuff he killed, exciting stuff.