Stock Jitters Into The Election
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I welcome to market call. This is a dana than I get Carter bracin worth here. It's one o'clock on the east coasts.

Carter is in the studio with us. This is very exciting. We've got a lot to do. Your guy down me is out today's going me back with me tomorrow. Carter having women well.

he's one of the biggest right. And for president, easy like painting yeah.

this time there there's a kay junior. Then there's guy amy. You know, he could run for something, by the way, he should run for new york's mayor.

He would clean this place up hard. No, he doesn't need a little bit of cleaning. We got a busy week care. Um it's kind of one of those weeks, Carter, where IT just feels like there's no stopping the sort of potential tape bombs you really mean and and a lot earn.

I am still a thousand names of thousand eighty four one russia, three thousand. So one of the biggest weeks. Not big in terms of america, but big players are done with but .

still big really quickly just for our viewer here because you're on fast money with all the time you're on tonight. I think um you do this with us, but you also do all the work for worth charting and you're going over hundreds and obviously over the the the the period of earnings, thousands of stocks, right? How do you like how do you decide what to focus on as far as market?

I mean, obviously, you have to hit the major names that our potential market moving. But how do you move down? You don't mean the market cap structure and home port, some of those other names.

Well, the process is driven obviously by what most institutions, al clansman ers and most people are very large cap, right? So your typical portfolio ager at a state pension plan or mutual phone had one says, look, it's got to have at least you know h eight to ten billion uh in market. They're not interesting things or three, four million and because they just can't move in out. And so the primary objectives is to find large liquid names because if you think about the greatest thing in markets is not being wrong, it's liquidity and is nothing really wrong back out. But if you're stuck in something liquid, get a big problem.

especially in earning season. Some things can be sort of binary.

So just try to go through A D, E, and and try to identify those that are most interesting. And again, IT IT is a judgment, is very subjective. And you can get ten or row wrong, ten and a row right, but it's interpretive, uh, IT is subjective and IT is a process that over years has its rules best.

Yeah, well, you would have been doing this so long time if feels like earning season keeps getting longer and longer. The banks, I think, reported um back there on october twelve. Here we are. Its november for right for and we don't really in my mind, we don't end until november twenty one in video reports. We're going to hit that and a little bit here, but I just seems to be a long gated, which is you know really means you're going to have a lot more single stock volatility .

over one month every and small cap retailers report well later and so forth.

The let's go the run down, up here. We got a lot to do. Um we're going to talk about just the way the markets been trading a little bit over the last few days.

Obviously, you know british jobs report cause even more jitters. Really think about what's kind of come on for the rest of this week. We're going to take a look at the markets through the lens of the futures.

But Carter has some great charts looking at some of the cash charts they are. And you know, there's certain sectors they've just been moving around. They have got going one where or other during those rate move that we've seen all over the place over the last month.

And then we're going to take some questions are at let's start Carter, with where we love to start um and this would be the S M P five hundred, the e minutes here you know we draw a couple lines here. You can decide whether they're useful or not. You see that up train.

We see your hundred and fifty day moving average. We see how far above IT we are. I think this is probably at the highs last probably as far as we bit above one hundred and fifty days over the course of the last year. You know whether that break out level from about a month and a half ago is important that we're sitting right on IT right now.

you know, right? It's very important the sense that a that uh the set up was the high of a july eleven for their bets. The whole market swings makes that August fith low reverse is hard and makes a slight new hide.

But key egrets, I have done the same thing except for one thing, they ever made the new hide right so that may july high, the August swing in the recovery two and slightly above the high that's not the case. The filled every semon actor nex or the echo IT or the cues um now like one hundred and so forth Russell a two thousand and still well below its all time I show it's distinctly uniquely the S M P five hundred. And the risk of courses that we under cut is not any real support here.

A prior day or two of trading doesn't represent support. There's um I think in the minimum one could expect volatility. That's obvious.

And obviously, politics is what likely to drive that. And so it's a good time to hedge. I look ninety nine percent of all people are long only all the time, right? If you look at the short interest in the new york change going back fifty years and we want to have two percent um at best all in and so does one um embrace risk, pull back a little bit going into unknown perspective, highly all event. We don't know that to be ultimate spectin ly very hard right?

Have a question for you in this start here. So if we're a look at this hundred and fifty days, which has been rising here, let's just get the exact number here, some pulling up right here um and maybe a man at let's go away from this chart. Let's do one without any lines.

And I want to want you to draw a different train line here for a second. I want to get you take card on this. So fifty seven and fifty was that high from july.

We're sitting right on that, right. And so you just talked about why that's important, why that's not. We look at basically it's fifty five hundred.

Is that one hundred and fifty days, right? Let's draw a train line from the August laws attached to the september lows, and we're right below that. And so I want to get your opinion, Carter is like when we yeah so we're right below that.

So that last train line that we drew from a year A I didn't have too many touch points are right like so maybe that didn't have a lot of authority, but to your eye you can see bottom, left, upper right, pretty much of forty five degree angle. This train line versus the one we drew before. Is this an important train line to you?

Well, it's it's an intermediate trainline verses lower term logger ation. More important. But you can see the three distinct break. There's the April break.

There's the August break in the perspective break that's occurring now, right? So do you do you give back some of the gains or a lot of the gains associated with the move since the August faith law? That's just Normal behavior. Um what's unknown is when, uh, a minor or immediate cell off turns into something more severe.

So if I was looking at this and I was looking to trade the futures, and I said to myself, okay, what do we have? We have an election tomorrow. IT might be valuable in around that.

We might not know the result. Actually not knowing the result maybe could result in more volatility for all we know, we can see movement. We're going to take a look at the dollar.

We're going to take a look at yield. But this one's kind of interesting set up to me. Again, no one knows how the market is going to react. And then on the seventh, so on thursday, we're onna get the fed rate decision.

And if you go back to september and we think about just the uncertainty, whether was going to twenty five, whether was going to fifty, how quickly the expectations change for that? If I would just look, and I wanted to put in some sort head or directional, we're going to get that that the ready put up the the questions here. I would probably stop a short in the futures here at that up train line if we are going to a head back above that, maybe a little ove fifty eight hundred. And I would be targeting a move back towards, I don't know, something that looks like that hundred and fifty days or so. If you're looking at that, that probably gives you about four and hf percent from those recent hides as that makes some sense.

And uh the the level to use as a stop, a if and as a draw, of course, the obvious ously, he's a little bit higher than the prior high. But the problem with that, of course, is that everyone else knows, of course, and so they run things to a stop level. Do you go a little bit more, but then if you give yourself a little more on the upside for the stop, you've lost more. It's there's no perfect answer to that.

yeah. And a lot of IT with chasing futures also is certain point of gut your gut field. You could be looking at other risk assets that might inform your view, one where another, but putting in the stop from the get go makes a toner sense.

At least you have your mind around what sort of loss you're willing to take if you get to go in the wrong way, right? Lets look at some charge that you brought. This would be the nasdaq one hundred versus the S.

P. Hundred total return index. I'm some interesting stuff here. I know you did this work and went out to your subscribers at worth charting earlier here. Talk to me about what you see in .

here yeah and just returned to highlight the fact that the the truth is the MaaS like one hundred to celebrate the nazi one hundred with the marty names that have driven so much adult really hasn't done in any Better um than the S N P which is got dogs and a drain IT down from walGreens boots and you impaired retailers and impaired banks and uh so forth and so on.

And and so a lot of auto correlation, to be fair, between blue line and the black line because a lot of the constituents in the blue line. Impact the black line. But either way, um IT, it's always enew. That's about time for on a long term basis, we will look at that next. This, of course, is a blow out in terms of one verses the other well.

it's you you mention that, you know, so the top ten names are fifty percent essentially of the weight of the N B X. And as that one hundred, about thirty percent on the way, the S M P. Five hundred. And the more stocks that you have, you know, the more distributed, I guess, some of the returns you're going to be. You just mentioned some of these names that are really know not acting particularly well.

but they don't have huge weight in the right. And also remember, if two things end up at the same place, having started the same place, one can say, well, they're the same thing, but they're not adjust to the rest. The blue lines, much worse on the bear market. Love twenty twenty two in october, the next one hundred and thirty seven percent year and S N P was one twenty seven. So um justice for beta risk, the black line is a much Better return series.

Yeah but IT lets back this thing out a bit more here you want to go back to two thousand and seven and let's talk about where this kind of diverse and what you're seeing in here right.

might have a table here just even if we do but we um let's look at that first so the short term but this is this is going back IT just shows how incredible basically and and this is not new markets are built to go up. The GDP increases the population generation. Morral cookies are consume more.

July razors are used. And so more than so on. And so I mean, why most people never wanna be barri shed, and it's why perma bears are are sort of ridiculous. But you know, people who permanent lsc are just relying on history and they never willing to take a chance um about seeing something a little bit dark um for what it's worth and before we get to the church um since dad has been tracked going about about eighteen years um collectively it's a wall street convention that silly status are asked to predict so stupid one at thirty months first is eleven but because it's a comfort like where will the market be twelve months hence and as a group never wants as well as we call for IT down here yeah because no one wants to hear that there there they're called cell siders. They're selling wares, they're selling shares to the public, are unloading shares in many so um and they also know the history.

Things go up more than that and you can see here um but what what's incredible about the and as like one hundred is of course, how much more value is on the up peers and the downs. So if we looked at a long term chart and that's what we've got next, I ously it's a blow out comparing the two on a long term basis. Where is the past two years? They're even money.

You know, let's go back to that table for a second here. And you i've talked about this a lot. Maybe I just have ptsd from IT.

You know, I started the business in one thousand nine hundred and ninety seven. I saw this massive nasdaq bubble just inflate. You know, people tried to kind of take shots of IT popping. And you know, when I finally started to, a lot of people didn't think that was IT either.

You know, mean, if you were one of these and you just kind of bought all these teams and around the internet, so when I think about the protracted bear market that we had in two thousand and the S M P only closed down nine percent, but the does that closed down thirty percent, right? And then by the end of IT, you know the laws in two thousand and two, the S. M.

P. Was done, maybe fifty five percent, but then has that at last, eighty seven percent of its value. And then IT took fourteen years, as you know, to get back towards those highs.

Why is IT now? If you just go back and look at since o seven, right, and o we literally the central world as we know, IT almost come apart. And that was the only year of the stock market was down.

Then you flash forward to, you know, basically covered. We weren't even downer. We had a quick decliner ing covered. We made IT up and then just kept on going, why is IT that bare markets are so much shorter even if you go to twenty, twenty two, you know, that was kind of, I don't know, I didn't feel that bad. IT was kind of like ordinary.

Well, if you think about a setback of sick kis, right, sickness IT gets fax, you try to, you have a broken something, or really think you boring death, right? You you repair. And so the long term trajectory is is of health till what you do.

But the point is that markets, these are not just a numbers and columns. These are these are managers who are highly trained to try to uh continue to progress and prevail and um uh make their businesses Better. And over time, uh good Operators generate more earnings and the share Price reflects IT. And so bear markets are short live. That's the nature of bare markets.

If you think about eighty seven up quick, that was um you know they can last a year too, but a real protracted where where we have had one of those no while because basic the people are lowest um during war, real war, you get p is down to four, in fact, because everything's on the table. You no they could come across the channel and then you got a problem if you are in london, point being you know that's the final discount. But generally speaking, we have a peace in the world, lack of a Better expression.

No, we know it's never peaceful, but peace in world there in the united states, the leading lady, the leading light. There are generally um uh what productive earnings. Unemployment is low.

And so the markets are are over time like that. In the real questions, what is unknown? What ultimately he kicks off something really double.

And is IT a Spike initiate? Surely that would do IT not six, but have to be eight or nine. Now, give all thing or something unreal but looking for those things doesn't really work.

You like, well, I I see war coming you know everyone always there's always feel monger, right? That's not a sort of a way to analyze IT. Um the question is there's two ways you go down.

You go down because earnings falter or you get multiple contraction. The same thing in universe or Marcus can only go one of two ways. You have the earnings growth or you have expansion in the multiple.

You get some combination, the two. So looking out here, it's like why a lot of people say me, we ve got to lost years ahead. What is the thesis for truly expanding earnings from here? Earnings growth when it's been for or multiple expansion? I mean, we're really going to have thirty eight times or forty five.

So that's a great point. We're getting both right now, right? He's think about IT. So from the secular shift as a relates to generated AI, you you've seen multiples expand because the way that investors see the opportunity for but they're also those companies are growing already now they're spending a lot more, right?

So get that sort of growth in that positioning in that um you know in general, A I but we will see how that plays out. And then you are also have a situation where we came into this year where consensus estimates for you know E P S growth year every year was like seven percent. Looks like we might hit that.

And then next year, fourteen percent expected earnings growth that hasn't not been coming down so far. You don't mean so that's the combination of the two are I jumped the run down a little bit because you brought S, S, M, P charts, the cash and you brought another deck. And I only asked you where you think, yes, M P ago. But let's look at this chart because you drew a nice line to my eye. I was just I born that I thought fifty five .

hundred was the level also sure so this is going back um again ten years and um well if one didn't know what I was that always the mission almost say IT looks okay， pretty healthy up into the right Normal uh uh a cent with with cattle and moves and and so won't say why I doubt that the question now is how long can you go without some more give back more of a reset and that's always the issue is upon but a may we have some short term charge to the S N P.

So this is the here and now and uh again, when you're in up trend, you do experience draw out. And so the question is where to we have one with a short line. We can flash the two hundred and fifty day train line, put them together, a combine them.

It's a pretty good level, and the unknown is, and this is the hardest part one. Do we have to go on there? Of course, not maybe six thousand post election day, but even as we are headed lower, the hardest thing to do is fear.

What to do at fifty five hundred? Do you press the man go short more? Do you cover and play for bounce? All the son IT really comes apart.

There is no good answer. That is a day to day kind of thing. And rather than watching the index is the behavior of key stocks.

how they believe you and we know what those names are, see the way banks have been acting to. They have become very important in the kind of valuable right environment we have. Let's look at the end a actually quickly because, you know you just kind of outline the outperformance over a long term basis.

But again, what we're trying to do right here is just can think about, okay, the way rates have been moving around. We have the fed meeting, you know two days after the election, you know there's a lot of potential move. I think both you and die or saying how do things kind of shake out in the near term?

I'm going back to two thousand and sixteen. I remember right before the election, the stock market sold off. If you not going to believe people where the stock market was S M P. Five hundred IT was like twenty two hundred or something like that, which is crazy. Here we are, fifty seven, twenty.

And then once the election was done, IT was kind of off to the races, not too different than in twenty twenty because and there were some other things going on there. I think the code vaccine was announced widely available like a week later after the election, again, off to the races. So if we look at this sort of movement here, if you were to have a check back this week, then you have a resolve sort of 在。 Using where you have some clarity about what the december meeting might be and then you have some resolution to the election. And let's say you have mixed the government that sort thing. I can see the market making new highs in the next month and a half ago, but i'd love to see a little fear put back and do IT yeah I mean.

the inability to make the new high now is the question, right? IT hasn't been able to get above its july in july high. Yeah, a nobel. I am betting that you get the volatility allows results in lower levels yeah to the only free day and perspective ly than some, right.

So the big question and you've been calling for your three healthy manner, and I think you kind of lay out your first view of yields are just kind of go to the ten year us treasure yal know we've got to five percent. I want to say a year ago or so you thought um you know you thought we're going down. We had that nice move.

You took the yellow move off. You could have been selling rallies here to my eye, Carter. You could kind of draw line from that five percent level connected to, you know, that other one.

You have a nice and may be almost maybe to do that. So yeah, you are going to do that, right? So I start looking at the run down and seeing do that I like you do you .

the thing is the higher for longer you know in a small print that uh point in which we hit four, three, four, right we were IT. We was in um july of twenty twenty two and we basically surge from two four to fourteen and that was the low of the market. The extrapolation or that which you call them and it's like the average comprehendingly just take what's going and say more will come IT means nothing. The extractors came up with the phrase higher for longer IT never happened. You know that not once to defeat ten yelled close about five percent.

I once .

and over the past he touched IT.

touched for one year. Mean, five percent .

is not in the level. And your money five percent ah. It's nerva in principle. And the market has figured that out that this the gold delete is not quite. But the key is that we never once closed the above five.

And over the past, since that peak, at four three, we are now of what one hundred and fifteen, one hundred and twenty weeks, he was only about four and a half, about eighteen weeks. This is not higher for longer. It's just nothing. Um i'm in the lower rates camp of remain that way. I I just never bought into. And also just say something, there's another way to draw the lines when you start hearing subbing that rims and they become up with like fine, all this nonsense and that that they run for your run for the hills as soon as he becomes a popular adage or bromide whatever word you just it's almost always, uh, just the absolute it's like the classic magazine cover, you know so one, so anyway, rates are the cost of ten. Your money is low.

yeah. And again, this chart prety fascinating. You see a kind of getting arrow narrow and this would be a great level kind of ford to pull back.

And um so I see what you see. So commencer IT with the move in the yields higher. We've also had a move higher in the U.

S. Dollar index. That's the dig walked me through this.

Yeah so here too it's uh what the main thing is. It's always tempting to look up her left, say, oh, that spotify, oh my first that apple let me have a judgement. There's nothing to say it's a parent to use is just water.

And IT has the huge Spike of twenty one, twenty two. IT has the equally impressive collapse, right? And notice where the peak is and that the twenty twenty two that's the low in the marking, right? Dollar strength S M P is down twenty seven. 但是 and basically， we've been meandering into uh, this set up where we are now. My hunch is it's not gone to do anything.

So let me ask, I think we ve talked about this a little bit. So strong dollar would Normally mean we gold, right, like like that at least how a lot of folks who trade macro think about IT. So why is that, that the dollar had this huge move in? Gold barely comes in.

And and so the balls would say that just shows how how much gold has room to run yeah and and of course, a goal of justice for inflation is nowhere near. And silver, my god, so would have to trip like we go to eighty five dollars and just a for inflation to get to a new um sort of high um but in the gold strength, in the face of that kind of dollar strength does in principle want to say, well, that's how vulnerability is, is the opposite.

That's how um impressive you love the relative stress on. sure. And then it's endorsing under the face of that is, yes.

we are if you again, if you're in the lower rates camp um and they do come in a bit, I mean, this is after the races with gold and the dollar comes in in line with rate, maybe you can pull up, AManda, like a ten year. I just think it's interesting that the hundred fifty day is basically twenty four, fifty or twenty seven and fifty. I mean, I check back to that upper up trend and then lets say the fifties almost there or so, that would be a certain layup of a level, but that would be a huge still off in goal.

yes. And silver course is not kept up and that's the real opportunity if one wants to play the benefit re the um the each of the across the gold miners, which is where the real data is crashing. The S N P year to date, the G D X public some forty percent.

And ah it's just it's just a small asset class, right? And there's not a lot of a big money in gold, Frankly, if there's only one stock in the S N P, that's new month. And so people don't they don't care about IT, uh, but what we do know is IT is clearly separate itself from bitcoin, and bitcoin .

has all the volatility Normally .

over the same time. Yeah, I don't know what we get is that gold itself yeah that silver future we'll see this that it's just um silver basically. I think there's a catch up trade. Yes, a lot of people spend time with .

the goal is nowhere near out you alright um so guy adami is probably his ears are rain. Little bit on the gold. Um let's look at the bit coin which you just mention.

This is a one year chart is interesting that the move early in the year were just went parabolic. That was um around the creation of lots of etf, okay, or the um regular ory approval of them. And really we just consolidated.

I mean, IT was like kind of series of lower highs and lower lows. But again, this was kind of one of those ones where you know folks said if trump t was going to win and you would see, you know further deregulation a bit coin. But it's come off a little bit thoughts on this one and maybe I can get a longer term.

It's it's back to its over five years, right? And it's contending with IT H I I suspect higher and i've um published on that in the same way the pull back perfectly reasonable.

right? So today as far as a ten year yell, we've seen um I know eight nine basis points, which is you know not a huge move, especially the way moving but in mal circumstances that would be kind of a big move. Um let's pull the X H B, the home builders here because they came off in all time high.

There were some results out over the last few weeks earnings results and someone so actually had big sell ups. But again, the thirty year mortgage um got as low as maybe six, six and a half and now it's seven or a little higher thoughts on home builders. You know again, your one hundred and fifty days seem to be a little bit of a support over the last year. What are you thinking in this space?

Yeah really did uh a video and why we think you should fade IT. Um then just they feel little bit stalled. But to be fair, it's a perfectly sort of reasonable. This is to say the charges fine.

stay the course right then quickly. This rip through lr I mean looks the same but all this one's kind of interesting I two brothers on its earnings you see that that move there IT IT gapped lower um and then closed at the high and a big change there. Does that one maybe good talk back of her. Does that one look different than nar in your opinion or .

are slightly I mean at at look at N V R friends which is the big heavy one that's always the pretty al outperformer. You know that one hasn't checked back at all. Um where's others are more impaired X H B, of course has bigger waiting and things like home deeper or society b which is more concentrated in the home builders proper. But either way, uh the the the case that uh I be making that this is a fade is is a contrary, right? Most people would say that for now this is an intact chart status.

Yeah and again, the volatility and monitor ate is probably not the sort of thing that home builders love. You don't mean because you need to have some visibility probably on on rates and that seems to be um you know who knows? I mean the C M E fed watch tool is pricing in ninety eight percent probability on thursday's meeting that the fed cuts twenty five basis points and then a the a december meeting, I think about eighty two percent but again, we know that you know the fed funds rate obviously um it's important.

But thirty year margins is trading closer to what the ten years is doing in the lake and that's been prevalent um here here's another sector, Carter, that again IT was kind of like a trump trade of doing that in air quotes a little bit regional banks. A lot of folks said that maybe they're be like the the foot off the neck of of regulation in the lake here. And this was one I know that you'd liked IT.

Um you called for a break out on IT. I think you did IT I know you did IT for worth charting lines. I think you came on fast money and you were talking about um let's look at the K R E or the b kx.

Let's start with the B K X. Actually this was your the call here. What a beautiful break out, right? You see that consultations got up to that level and then I broke out.

Do you like the Price action .

here in the bank? And if you were doing that, like is that support level? Prior resistance is that important level. If you got down.

there are minor support. I mean, you know it's not a it's not a definitive and authority break and it's a slight pop above those very precise and immediate tops. And uh, IT has a bit of installed to IT.

I mean, this is truthy make no trade right? I say no bad, but if I were forced to, no, no, you must buy or so you must be lower short. I'd be small.

short. okay. And let's go to the K, R, for a second to the regional banks that kind of was just talking about there.

That's just one of the thoughts that you know again, for a regular ory standpoint, maybe they benefit um under a trump. What is that up trend look like to you? Looks like they've banned off a few times here.

Um so yeah I mean, obvious ly, a relative performance to the B K X continues to make new fifty two, eight lows. And banks in general, if you look at the B K X relative the S P S below its financial crisis law of nine and the whole things in us, these are not, these are training stock. They are not things to own hole.

Obviously want to say what about you more than okay, that's the exception that proves the rule. Yeah yeah. The most definitely does .

are this is one i'm just going to throw you for a looper and I don't know if you get asked about. I love that you know actually how much you get asked by um institutional clients. But you also have a lot of contact with retail because of your product that you send out to a lot of folks there.

Let's look at bircher a the classes here because this is one that you know no one knows exactly what's going on. They've kind of cut their bank. That of you cut his bank.

AmErica taking half IT looks like they're keep selling apple every time they have the opportunity do so huge winner for them. What does this like look like to you? And in the name like this, where you know the components of this business or so you know diverse.

is that uses to yeah I mean, you have to look at IT as the railroad and you have to look at as an insurance company. But all of these things like sees can he and that's all the last sense, kay, but they have no waiting in the fit, right? Yeah, good candidate.

So for expensive, expensive can I? Yeah the the interesting thing, of course, is that there are people who believe in fundamental to some of the part. Some people do this in cash flows.

Some people look at charts, some people who are activists, they bet the jackey yeah they study management and they say this guy, this Operator, this person um you know tandy, which was radioshack, was a wallet company originally and they did like the wallets. You sometimes you can just find someone who is a fantastic Operator. You can just change his stripes. And so the question is, ultimately, this has been the .

best ata driving in the box county other day and he was like a strip mall out there and you know how they have the big signs and further the strip mills in the parking life, there was a radio shack um sign on there. They haven't taken up. They're they're all gone.

which is kind of fast company and and it's big. But the point is that this is uh, h this is obviously not a one man show. That's not what i'm saying.

But the interesting thing is I would buy the jack pack here, but the main thing I think, that we all have to take away that this was a mean who was ridiculed. The dut compete because I A tisean. We know how that added.

And this is man now, who is being not ridicule, but little bit, you know, well, come on, you know, you have three hundred and twenty billion. You can find anything to buy. Uh, listen, H, I would say that he's do enough for a reason, right?

And so three years old, thank you. You 的。

here's the one that I did. A great place. There's not a lot of places that could soaked up that kind of cash. You turn right.

But guess what? Who owned for twenty years? They in costco, charlie monger was on the board and they sold IT on the covered Spike course because costco did so well whenever ver once ration off to buy supplies.

And that's now for five years ago. And this is not me scholder never saying they shouldn't because cost goes done very well since, but wouldn't be interesting if he would return to something that he hand for twenty years. That is truly that's the ultimate SaaS model, mean you pay those is obviously too expensive for him. That but one of his great winners, which he then saw tremendous really performance post covered accident just as now is like an apple uh, holding all this cash.

So what's funny you know in enraging bow markets in things like tech, for instance, um we mentioned like twenty five years ago, I mean, people spend less time looking at the company like bircher right like you to think about about and know we probably saw that over the left.

Well, a couple remember he never split his stocks as beier thing is new because he didn't want sell sides controlling or put a cell on IT. So no one covered IT because there was no banking fees. And so he was immune from the whole nine sense of wall street. I would see the b shares or four people to be able to bike as um what what are the asia now.

if may be looked at up. But I look at the age are sixty six um yeah six thousand.

I was said I was walking visiting Rogers from this twenty years ago and someone just through .

the hallway was pitching hundred sixty.

was pitching picture. And the guy who didn't know anything, he was looking at share Price because one stocks forty dollars. Eight days he goes, I think you missed this one. It's up a lot. It's because they never split.

I love IT. Well, until you kind of had proactive shares, I mean, but the b shares did that too. Interesting that one, you know for years got the guys ninety four years old and chilling monger past recently and you know they are talking about succession.

But you put a gun to my head. I couldn't tell you you know who who's taking over. I know a lot of folks who cover here.

Here's you you know he hand he keeps things like hole in ones yeah if if you get a whole one of golf terminal, he does you know eatin insurance or wonder what he himself would bad if he could do a post a more what would just the stock on the announcement of his death? Does he go up or down? Yeah ah and a lot of people are i've asked this over many years a lot of people it's fifty five, how you will say well down initially but that IT goes up a lot of i'll say down so we'll say on be unch but I mean in the .

day years ago people thought I get murder but I mean .

the banker salary is prevented. All get broken up yeah these are coming. But here you say let's have .

had a couple names before we get to some questions here really quickly in video, like I just mentioned earlier, november twenty of the confirmed day, we heard from some of the major customer s it's that it's microsoft, is amazon, it's google. You know the capeci was there. These are my lines, not yours.

I guess I probe could have done away with the red one here but you see that uptrain intermediate and bounce off that hundred and fifty days thoughts here um on this one again it's kind of you know got added to the dough friday afternoon and it's bucking the trend here. It's your little less than two percent. I don't know what indexing looks like for the double, but that's what's going on here by in .

front of the add yeah they so the interesting thing courses IT peaks a little bit before the market IT makes the same law on August. Faith that recovers and now uh has been under performing the market and that's the nature of all these sort of marketing and from microsoft and google and so worth um it's really I would say no trade.

I mean, do you bet that IT after backing and filling and breaks out, okay, very able that is putting in a double tap and it's faltering. Okay, reasonable. I mean, it's not a clearly defined moment. Those are usually best left alone.

Yeah no doub. Let's look at one last name uh this talented er reports after the what's interesting to me about this one. You see obviously that move you is doubled since the August lows.

It's five hundred and forty seven percent of the year. You see how steep that up trend is. IT just broke below IT you see that hundred fifty days looking kind alone's all the way down there.

You implied move about twelve percent in the either direction cut this stock has moved nineteen percent on average over the last four quarters. Um it's got expected at two point seven billion dollars in sales this year. Three point four is next year.

So it's growing twenty percent a year. But as a multiple, the sales with the ninety three billion our market cap IT doesn't make any sense. And I made this point earlier on the on the tape podcast we live in danny.

I mean, what the hell do they have to do to get the stock going higher? And you know expectations are already really high. And i'm not ask you to to come in on valuation or the fundamentals, but when you see a move like this in a single name that should not be trading at this valuation, i'm toying you that not anyone else. It's litera rounding area. If you think about the sort of is that an apple or a microsoft or a google just reported, I mean, like you know two point seven billion on any other matrix wouldn't made too much of a difference on anything.

Yeah I mean, it's just steep and uncorrected. It's a phrase that I learned from my teacher mentor, I repeat IT off. And I mean, if we've pulled this back a two years, three, a child, um how far above trend is IT? It's far, far above trend.

That doesn't mean uh, that that's a guaranteed miss on the earnings. But I would have a minimum, if long most people are I would sell calls or buy a rest reversal or just sitting blindly long thinking, oh, it'll be all right that well, that might work out. That doesn't seem print well, you know.

it's funny. And again, I look at through the lens of fundamental. I like the kind of ma d is, well, most of them don't happen.

It's kind of a fun game that kind of play. I mean, this stock was a great takeover candidate. If you believed in the secular shift, if you believed in their end markets were all going going to get bigger. But not here. No one can buy IT for ninety three billion dollars because the deal comes at one hundred and twenty billion dollars you know he may would be the biggest tech deal in the history of tech deals and that's not .

happening yeah and and there they called Price discovery from that law of August. And what isn't discard the idea is, is that the market is forward looking in the share Price is discounting um the future. You can't discount two years, even the last three things you can you can't discount one year.

One, your Price are is absurd, but you can, on an intermediate basis, discount three to four, four to five, six, five months. And how much of what lies ahead has been discounted by this move from the August law? I would say most of IT.

if not all yeah and I asked that question because our good friend, a friend of the show here, Scott Rogers, um he asked plentier today or tomorrow and you just said wide cell calls at the very least if you owned IT so the reason I brought up M M A and like the probably two percent likelihood that this company up here could ever get a bid, is the of selling calls. And like you said, a rise.

So selling out of the money calls, maybe using the purchase to buy, a downside put that is at risk. So you can also call IT a color. You know, I mean, could the stock, what maybe you sell the calls ten percent of the money or something like that? But because the implied move is about twelve percent, so that's the reason why I bring that up.

Let's go to a question from here. IT is from, okay, this is the color blind collector. I like that. Um have C B W update X O M by and so energy across .

the spectrum is very, very weak. X on is the sort of the safety name if we pulled up a um maybe do a five year charter longer. Uh you can see what of course is important here is the huge drop up off the cold at law and this equally huge duration based um rest or pause uh more often not that is resolved by a higher uh Price and that's the betton that's the what we publish on yeah.

I like that another reported on friday in the stock is kind of consolidate or came in a little bit from that nice break out to me and with you as far as the technical set up. But I also think about what's going on the crew w right now and OPEC pushing out. You don't mean production that should benefit maybe a little bit from the Price here, right?

Let's get a couple of more in here really quickly. Um let's look at this one from me way we make fly. Um i'd love to know dann Carters favorite cross trade, long and short to for a possible Harris win.

interesting. right? Let's think about that for second. We don't have to just pull IT out.

You know let's .

here no cross trade.

meaning yeah the Michael .

ones hard. And we kind of talk .

about that the way let's .

assume that you mean rates the dollar, you mean so like the dollar has come off a little bit like let's assume over the weekend, the polls got really tight. Let's say it's a toss up, but there was a couple things that kind of gave her is a little bit of the momentum. You know I mean, let's just say he was okay under that scenario.

Let's say it's a definitive sort of win. I mean, I think this could break hard either way by the yeah. So let's just say IT breaks towards her.

Let's say we don't know about the house. Let's say the senate just stays flat here, okay, like fifty, fifty and then the vice president and has what's a treat. I mean, I said IT before. I think the stock market probably goes up I think IT probably goes up in most scenarios because if you think about her, they're going to spend more money. They're going to do the sorts of things that they want to do.

On the flip side of that, if trump were to win, they are going to extend those tax cuts, right? And then I mean, either way, you're going to have deficit spending or higher deficits that that makes some sense to you. And no.

yeah I I, I you look there's huge walls reforms with banks of analysts trying to uh and they do. They publish uh, pieces on uh, you know, baskets that will do well. And if you look at the history, that stuff, it's not particularly vacation, right IT IT makes sense concept intellectually. But how the chips play out and fall is the question is, is a really less clear than the academic papers would suggest. I suppose the clearest thing would likely be banks yeah in the event of IT yeah when IT as was the case.

like like you would like the banks.

you're saying i'm saying that would be the most likely benefit. But the the interesting is that they only ran for about four, six weeks, then their real promise peaked on the last well.

So so what i'd saying i've been saying this on our pods and on fast money a little bit. I mean, to me and and I was kind of looking at this prior to their earnings, just just pull up a Morgan standing. Okay, let's pull up a golden sex a little bit.

I mean, beautiful. Break out more in stana new all time high gold man looks really interesting to me if golden were to check back just a little more Carter, what why my saying the investment banks more than the money centre banks. I think under either scenario, either win.

I think this woman licking on who run ETC, I think she's out. I think that commonly, Harris, you know, she's quoted silicon valley. She's corded big tech.

And I think he probably had to kind of make some sort of assurance that the regular or environment for a big tech and for deals in general is going to a look a little different. Let's go the golden for a second here. So obviously, trump would definitely fire her.

And I think you're going to see a lot more eminent. And so capital markets activity heating up should be really good for a golden in a Morgan, but the Morgan Stanley would have to check back a little bit for me. You know, i'm just curious what you think of these two.

one verse of the other yeah I mean, at this point I would say governments probably the Better bad. It's been the longer term out performer, but it's the super, these smaller little things pupa and ever core E V R. Just to show you how steep and uncorrected these have been the the ones that have anticipated really um and if you pulled this back, this is is going .

to do a two year or .

three most this has been run away. It's also the private actually so maybe keep A R E S yeah day and K K R this stuff it's just through the roof. Um and so the question is, is that a relative of performance? Look at that. I mean this exceptional um performance. I suppose if things really unleashed, these would continue .

to there are all I listen Carter breakfast. Appreciate being here in the studio was not found here. Man, we ripped through. I love with charts and again, you know I ve said this on so many occasions because Carter, I have the benefit of talking to him more than when we're just doing this and fast money um while you are a chartist extraordinaire um I think your insights about markets and sentiment and stuff away from just looking at pictures and drawing lines on them are fascinating. I really .

appreciated grateful. I did start as a fundamental strategist and I pivoted to charge after about three years but try done .

that of work in the time when I was on the buy side. Every shop every your shop had a technical analysts to strategist. Um and it's amazing that um most of them are kind of like sheep.

They just follow through the ones and and there's all there is a handful of them that you know that you grew up with who are still followed very widely as you are. And you know there's a lad who come and go and that to say, I love IT. I mean, I learn fundamental stuff.

I learned moment, 行， but charting and techno analysis was really important. Me, I do have a fraction of the scale when I say no single digits of what you have. But IT is important input to me.

yeah. And and its funny. IT was all IT was all ridiculous. I started to be quick enemy well and with this, that this teacher mentor said, if you go down this path, you'll speak glass in the morning meeting so and and he said, half the sales people will have left the room. And indeed, that's what happened.

So everyone gathers at six forty five and then the big catapult as we're upgrading caliper strong by or dally or dowering, and the cells were run off to go call their accounts, to get a call the biggest mutual funds and heads funds to tell them war up greatness. And then at the end, okay, here comes the chart dim and half their is empty because no one respects IT. Now it's all reversed, mr.

Simon. All he was was once in zero o he's the great as perform of all time. Now that's fancy math pattern interpretations, but it's just patterns and and now no one takes the advice of one expert to pick a restaurant. We use crowd sourcing and use the input of many. And that's what charting is, is the input of many to try to figure out the way for, yeah, anyway.

all good. It's amazing.

And then every newspapers are traded in new to charts. And every report by Mandate from the N. S. D. And final has to have a chart when you make a reaction, when before a chart of pick with the Price first enough.

I Carter backs worth. Appreciate you being here, guys, if you want to find his work in your email or your email box, you can go to word charting that. Come check IT out there.

Great work. Look at that. Guy is looking in. Uh, okay, we'll be back tomorrow. Guy down is going to be back with me looking forward to that. So thanks for one being here.

And by the way, if you're watching this on youtube right now and you do not subscribe to our youtube channel, go hit that button. Subscribe share IT like IT whatever you want to do in there. That's how people find the show. Thanks so much, everyone. thanks.