Inflation, Rate Fears Send Stocks Lower for Week
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Welcome to the swamp market update podcast, where each trading day we recap tea market results and statistics. I'm key landfill d and here's a summary of what happened today, friday, november fifteen. S stocks finished lower for the third week at a form, but the final hour of the session saw signs of dip buying and wall street remained in positive territory for the month.

The S M P five hundred index slipped friday to levels last scene before the election, following hot economic data and caution signs from the the reserve, the summary cut odds plunge below sixty percent from recent peaks, near eighty percent in future trading. Still, the S M P five hundred clock back from its inter day lows below its twenty day moving average of fifty eight seventy level. That's been firm support for months between today's robust retail sales and yesterday's warning from fed german one people that the central government is in no hurry, trim right stocks, spare little traction, and while treasury fields couldn't push through four point five percent for the ten year treasure note, they remain far above preelection levels.

I'm serve as a psychological break on the stock market rally attempts. Strong data leading to weak wall street performance brings memories of the climate earlier this year, when investors got cold feet with every hot report worried how I might affect that policy, its day job vu all over again. A famous baseball player once said, IT looks like we have entered the good news on the economy is bad news for the markets phase, said cappy Jones, chief fixed income strategist ash wab.

With retail sales showing continued strength, consumer spending hopes for rate cuts by the fed or fading, we continue to see the potential for the fed to pause rate cuts at the december meeting if the data continue to show economic growth in the two and a half to three percent region with no determination in the labor market. October retail sales rose zero point four percent, but only zero point one percent when excluding automobile bills. Analysts had expected zero point three percent in zero point two percent, respectively, according to brief ing dead com.

However, the government made sharp upward revisions to septembers report, meaning the october gains built off a larger base. The latest atlantic fed G D P now reading for a fourth quarter growth domestic product, or G D P growth is two point five percent. Here's where the major benchMarks ended. The S M P five hundred index fell seventy eight point five five points, or one point three two percent, to five thousand and eight seventy point six two to end the week down two point zero eight percent the out Jones industrial average lost to three hundred and five point eight seven points, or zero point seven zero percent to forty three thousand four forty four point nine nine, and the week down one point two four percent.

And the as that composite decreased four hundred and twenty seven point five two pots or two point two four percent to eighteen thousand six eighty point one two to end the week down three point one flood per set, attend your treasure note yield rose one basis point to four point four three percent, but added twelve basis points for the week. Short term, els rose less and the sea o volatility and extravagance climb ed to sharply to sixteen point one one as stocks fell. Some of the defensive positioning this week reflects growing concerns about policies touted by the incoming trump administration.

Its proposed tax cuts could lead to increase the deficit spending and terrify could boost Prices. Plans for immigration reform could create labor shortages and key industries and boost wages, which can be inflationary. In this sudden risk of climate, only a handful of sectors managed gains friday, including utilities and real estate, often seen as defensive areas.

Big banks, including wells fargo, J. P. Morgan chase and Morgan stanly, helped financials, which raw up on ideas that less regulation might accelerate. Deal making in protect finished last friday and then fell more than three percent this week had winds include a rising U. S.

Dollar that might hurt profits, climbing treasury yields that make IT harder for tech customers to borrow in order to upgrade their technology and worries that increased tariffs might worsen relations with china, hurting semiconductor firms. The P, H, L, X semiconductor index, or socks, dropped another three and a half percent today and now trades below where IT closed last tuesday, just before the presidential vote was counted. Tech titan and video, apple and microsoft all fell one point five percent to three percent today, denting their respective three trillion dollar market capitalizations and making IT difficult for major indexes declined b.

Weakness in the highest capitalized dogs help explain why the S M P five hundred equal weight index, which measures every stock equally rather than by market cap, fell roughly half as much as the M P five hundred today. As well as stocks on the move. Applied materials, an important supplier to the semi ductor industry, is slid more than nine percent.

The companies, the fiscal fourth quarter earnings per share and revenue us surpassed analyst views, but the outlook came up assured on both weakness in the semiconductor market outside of A I relationships burdens the business. Alibaba dropped almost two point two percent after a cordially sales for the chinese e commerce giant missed analyst expectations. Sales grew five percent in europa, roughly the same as for a competitor, J D dot com, which reported yesterday.

Accelerating revenue from alibaba s cloud business might explain some of today's strength. Plentier climb more than eleven percent after announcing shares will leave the new york stock exchange to trade on the nasdaq. Is could lead funds being forced to buy its shares and health care stocks, particularly vaccine and weight lost drug makers like moderna e lilan.

Fisa lost ground. After the nomination of Robert Kennedy for A U. S. Health secretary, he is known for his anti vaccine views and his distaste for weight loss drugs. The next deck biotech index had a dreadful week, down ten percent.

Housing arguably swings the most data wake next week, with october housing starts and building permits arriving early tuesday in october, existing home sales due thursday, october, leading indicators from the conference board and final november university of michigan consumers sentiment rounds out major economic indicators, but the airline story is likely equities, where investors brace for earnings reports from major retailers starting tuesday and in video on wednesday. Recent data like today's a retail sales point to possible improvement in third quarter retail earnings as walmart and target and other big box stores prepared to report. Still in video, the final mega capture report could hug the headlines.

The AI chip giants regular pattern of beating wall streets estimates suggest the market continues to grow even faster than endless project. The question is whether in video can deliver another positive guiding surprise wednesday afternoon. Speaking of surprises, this morning's steep upward revisions to the september retail sales report was exhibit a and trigger ing today's inflation jitters.

The government raised september retail sales growth to zero point eight percent from the previous zero point to four percent, while september retail sales, excluding autos, rose to one point two percent from zero point seven percent. The september retail sales control group, which measures all sales excluding receipts from auto dealers, building materials retailers, gas stations, offer supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores and gets factored into gross domestic product, or GDP, rose from zero point seven percent to one point two percent october. The control group fell zero point one percent, its first decline since April, but that lost some meeting when seen in light of the september control reading.

Spike is a big figure, even though it's slightly down in other data. The new york fed empire state manufacturing index surged to thirty one point two in november from the previous negative eleven point nine. The new orders index is accelerated to twenty eight point zero from negative ten point two reading above zero show expansion.

On the contrary note, october industrial production fell zero point three percent. The government said, however, that partly reflected the now settled strike at boeing. Another data point was october import Prices rising zero point three percent months of a months and zero point eight percent year over a year.

Export Prices climbs zero point eight percent months over a month, but falls over point one percent for the year. Prices picked up on a monthly basis after following the prior two months, according to brief. In that calm, though, inflation remains against cern, one major contributor to past Price pressure remains subdued.

W, T, I, crude, il lost ground again this week, partly reflecting strength in the U. S. Dollar, but also responding to industry research that suggests a supply overhang of as many as one million barrels per day next year that would be the largest since the pandemic and partially reflects potential lower chinese demand.

Industrial metals, including copper, also fell this week. Commodity weakness may support consumer related and industrial stocks, but could weigh on energy materials. As of late today, traders see fifty eight percent chances.

Rates will fall twenty five basis points at the inclusion of the federal open market committee meeting december seventeen and eighteen and a forty two percent chance of no move. Based on the C M E fed watch tool. This has been the swap market update podcast.

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