Bessent Ascent: Stocks Up, Yields Down on Nominee
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Welcome to the swamp market update podcast, where each trading day we recap tea market results and statistics. I'm key transform, and here's a summary of what happened today, monday, november twenty five. It's not unusual for one person to help Spark a rally, but when that happens, it's usually federal reserve chairman to own power.

Today, the market continued to limb and set new record highs, possibly thanks to someone less familiar. Treasury secretary nominee got decent president elect trumps the nomination of percent, too, has a reputation as a deficit hog, likely a factor in today's sharp treasury yield slide to nearly one month lows. This, accompanied by hopes percent can help boost U.

S. Economic growth through lower taxes, appear to help Spark cap stocks in companies more exposed to the domestic market, including home builders, retailers, auto makers and freed handlers. On the other hand, many companies with heavy exposure to foreign markets like semicon, e doctors, health care in certain retailers also climb, possibly taking their queue from person as well.

The treasure nominee supports trumps terror policy, but media reports say he may see terror threats as more of a negotiating tactic. The U. S.

Dollar weaken today on hopes for less pressure on overseas economies if U. S. Terrible policy is more nuanced, and that also appeared to lip multi national U.

S. Stocks, it's too soon to know how all of this might play out in terms of policy. But IT seems market participants lean toward optimism. A simple look at the S M, P. Five hundred index might give someone the wrong idea about today's action, as poor out tings from heavily waited tesla and in video held IT to black games near zero point three percent instead considered checking the S M P five hundred equal wait index, which raise all components the same rather than by market weight, and easily outscored the S M P five hundred index with a nearly zero point nine percent rise, reflecting broad strength among stocks outside mega cat.

Generally, this sort of broadening rally, which in today's case lifted nearly all S M P sectors gains, suggest a healthier market than one pulled up by a few big names, a small caps, two thousand indecent, continue to raw monday and posted new all time highs to finally take out the old ones, posted just over three years ago that our George a destrier average set a new record closing high for the second trading day in a row. And the S M P five hundred index set new intraday record highs early on before closing all those, but with its sixth consecutive game. Here's where the major benchMarks ended.

The S M P five hundred index rose eighteen point zero three points, or zero point three zero percent, to five thousand nine eighty seven point three seven. The dw jone's industrial average added four hundred and forty point zero six points, or zero point nine nine percent to forty four thousand seven thirty six point five seven and the next deck composition gain fifty one point one eight points, or zero point two seven percent two thousand nine thousand fifty four point eight four. The ten year treasure note yield fell fifteen basis points to four point two seven percent, and the cabo volatility and x or vex dropped to fourteen point seven eight, the lowest since november for teen S.

As far, stocks on the move, companies like union pacific and fedex rally today, along with other transport stocks, helped by existing economic optimism. Tail winds that got an extra blast from percent, but our Jones transportation average, which also includes airlines, rose more than two percent and flooded with all time peaks. Transports might also have gotten a lift from today's falling W T I rudo il Prices, which dropped three percent on media reports of a possible ceasefire in lebanon.

Energy was by far the worst performing S M. P sector today from a broader sector standpoint and interesting mix of cynically and defensive areas cruizing to the top of monday's leader board with real estate leading things, possibly to falling yields. Consumer directionally got a big boost also from plunging yields and hopes for growth under the new administration.

Health care and communication services rounded out the top four, but info tech lost ground as rotation towards cyclical continued another factory and treasury strength. And the drop in yellow today was a sixty nine billion dollar two note option that drew heavy interest, including from international buyers. They suggest investors are relatively happy with current rates and that yields may not have to keep climbing to satisfy buyers.

This is a big concern. Was so much U. S. Deck coming up for auction in the months ahead. Five year note auction arrives tuesday.

Maces slit two point two percent after the company announced that they would delay its earnings report previously scheduled for tomorrow. An internal investigation at the company revealed an employee he had more than one hundred million dollars of expenses. According to bomberg.

Misses will issue its released in outlooks by december eleven. Baath body works sold more than sixteen percent after the soap and fragrance company exceeded analysts earnings and revenue expectations and raised its outlook. Full year sales are still supposed to fall from last year, but less than the company previously.

Kb home and told brothers each added more than six percent as home building firms benefit from today's falling yields. The thirty year mortgage rate also fell below seven percent, though IT remains above the autumn laws. And tesla and in video a both dropped to sharply, but news was thin.

Its possible both suffered from profit taking after recent gains vest rotation into smaller and more cyclical companies also burdens many mega caps and some chip stocks. Tomorrow brings results from best buy coals, dicks, sporting goods and nordstrom. Other companies reporting outside of retail tuesday include workday and autodesk.

Best by surged when IT raised profit guide sense or passed analysts quarterly expectations in August, but the stock treated water sense. Comparable sales at stores open a year or longer rose six percent last time out, which could be a number to watch. Holiday quarter guidance also looms large.

Head of black friday. Two data highlights come just after tomorrow's open, followed by fed minutes later tomorrow and arguably even more important numbers early wednesday. Consumers confidence from the conference board pop to one hundred and eight point seven in october from ninety nine point two in september, making october the strongest to monthly gains since march of twenty twenty one.

The average november projection is for a headline of one hundred and thirteen point zero. According to briefing that com new home sales for october seen that as seasonally adJusting annual rate of seven hundred and eighteen thousand, according to brief ing I com, down from septembers seven hundred and thirty eight thousand. And tomorrow afternoon, minutes from the federal open market committee's november meeting offer an inside look at what policymakers discussed when they lowered rates by twenty five basest points, though fed german eron pal said at the meeting is too early toward possible fiscal policy.

From the next administration into monetary planning, the minutes would reveal if any conversation occurred, even peripherally the F O M C met just after the election, powis said, I think, reasonably, that they don't want to deal with fiscal policy until they know what that fiscal policy is. And that's so long way down the road, s, said cappy Jones, chief fixed income strategy at shop in a recent podcast. On the other hand, we know from previous experiences at the fed in two thousand sixteen when there were all these policy changes proposed, they did discuss them in model potential outcomes at the meetings before they were actually implemented.

Just to have a baseline kind of evaluation of what I might mean. I would watch those minutes pretty closely to see how much discussion there was around fiscal policy at that stage of the game. Added wednesday features the feds favoured personal consumption expenditure or P C Price index, personal income and spending and the government's latest updated estimate for third quarter gross domestic product, or GDP.

P, C, E. Expectations are for monthly cord growth of zero point three percent, equal to september's reading, and headline growth of zero point two percent, also equal to september. According to trading economics core that excludes food and energy Prices on a year over year basis, P, C, E Prices are seeing accelerating in october from september at two point three percent versus two point one percent. That month, the core P C E is also seen climbing to two point eight percent from two point seven percent.

This is the opposite direction of what the fit wants to see as IT tries to guide inflation towards its two percent goal as a late day trader, see a fifty two and a hf percent chance rates will fall twenty five basis points at the conclusion of the federal open market committee meeting on december seventeen and eight eighth, and a forty seven point five percent chance of no move based on the C. M. Fed watch tool.

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