SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer
Top Traders Unplugged
Shownotes Transcript
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.
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**Episode TimeStamps: **
01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - Industry performance update
06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?
**11:49 - **What causes the rising Cocoa prices?
13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following
16:58 - Industry performance update continued
18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?
22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?
30:51 - A period of normalcy
34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative
42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?
46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?
52:35 - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)
57:08 - Finding the optimal allocation
01:04:27 - Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation
**01:07:11 - **Different allocations for different situations?
**01:11:10 - **Too old for unrealistic expectations
Resources discussed in this Episode:
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
**1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about **
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here)
**2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score **
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here)
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here)