The Housing Markets is CRASHING in Some Cities—Is Yours Next?
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Is the real sty market crashing? Is that booming? Is that neutral? Well, IT kinder just depends on where you look.

I know if you guys are trying to figure this out on the internet, your folly is confuses everyone because depending on who you are listening to, you are saying there's a lot of listings in some areas and Prices are falling and other areas it's bombing and there's all kinds of deal. So we're going to dive in here in this segment right now cause denial specifically, Daniel, a lot of work on this.

So whether we did well, you know, we always say on this realist channel, real estates local, like when you listen to certain you to people, or you watch the news or you listen to a podcast, I want you to make IT think it's national. See if they're all crashing. It's all bombing, it's all, and that's just not the case. You know, it's more what's happening in you are backyard to you have to look at your area that you're looking to invest in or by human to know what your market is doing.

But also, before we jup into that, I want to talk about what everybody perceives as a crash, like you guys could maybe send that in, let's take a look, because I think everybody's definition of what a cry this is different. So if you own an airbnb and you don't have anybody renting IT, you might think you are a crash, you know. But IT might not be that market might not be IT might just bear be be if you're a lender and you're not getting paid, that could be your definition of a crash. So um you know what is yours then .

you I think that for my definition of a crash would be Prices that are lowering very quickly. And we are actually seeing that in some area of the country and you almost have like people panicking and then listing their house in order to salvage equity.

That correct. That's actually what I would say too. So now does that mean it's a crash on the commercial real state, which is where I hang out mostly we know that Prices specific lamta family and office and all that, they went down thirty percent at least based on the cap p rates that actually went up and the interest strates that actually went up and the cases that actually went down.

So we know that, but doesn't that certain mean is a crash? They just rePriced? Alright.

that's what's interesting. You know if people are certain ously reductions like even an air zona market, we're seeing a little bit of reductions in the last few months on Prices. What people love to remember is where at the end of the year, like we always see Price reductions at the end of the year, right?

Because you do you have the holidays and people listing during this time usually urgently need to sell, whether it's because they already bought another home, the through divorce, they're moving like whatever IT is because it's not an ideal time to ever list your house. So people always are like real cognition of this. And also just as Prices are going down to mean Prices have one up so much the last few years, that of course, you know, reality is cyclical, so it's going to go down.

But just because that even is going down twenty percent doesn't mean we're in a crash. Know what we saw in two thousand and eight, specifically with last time we had a crash, was that people were panic gliding. I mean, people were like, oh my god, Prices are dropping every single week and I final list my home now i'm going to lose all this equity.

And there weren't that many buyers, which is key because, you know, people couldn't qualify for mortgage, you had bad mortgages, people didn't have equity. So the whole system was like melting down. So that's like a very bad crash.

Yeah, I think that is a good definition of a crash. So if if let's say, your cost of food was really high and now it's come down, that doesn't mean it's crashed. If the cost of a car was up really high and we know was because of the supply chain issues and then I came back down to earth, that's not a crash.

All that means is that there's more cars to choose from and the dealers are now having to go shaw a bit with the consumer. So so let let's be cogent of the word crash because just because there's more things being added doesn't necessarily mean it's a crash yet. However, there are markets that we're going to talk about today there something wish we watching.

Yeah absolutely, Jerry, can you pull up the bank? The key takeaway. So this is interesting because existing homes sales actually in october rose three twenty four percent from the previous month and two point nine cent from a year ago.

So I thought this was kind of interesting because everyone's like, oh my god, the markets crashing, like home sales are slowing. You know, this is it's gonna be this crazy thing. But if you've really look at IT work up two point nine percent from one .

year ago and the medium .

Prices up and the .

medium Prices up, so those you are looking at, national, national, you're laughing at.

people say there's a crh, nh, right?

And I might be in area now.

The one thing though is inventory isn't now a four point two months supply.

which is Normal ally around sick.

right? So it's not around sick. So it's but it's creeping up because it's been in the series, right? So the inventories going up, which is good for buyers, right? Because that is why you are kind of seeing buyers now having some bargaining power and sellers even having a discount a little bit from maybe an unrealistic number they were trying to get last year.

But I what's interesting though, as you know, once again, people see, oh my god, buyers are able to discount. Now it's crashing because they can discount like they always able to discount at the nominal is the last few years when buyers couldn't discount and they were waiving, you know, inspections and they were seven offers on a house within a day, like all that was weird. This is like more Normal buyers usually can I can negotiate.

right if Prices are going up, and I would go out on a lime here and say this not necessarily crash nationally. However, we have identified several markets that are in a very different scenario then these national figures, and I think that's the kind of the whole point to you all made in the beginning, is that this is not a national market we're talking about. You have to look at things nationally, but you can get really skid if you're hanging on this and you're not looking at some of the signs they're happening in other markets.

And Jerry, can you pull up the yellows market heat in that? So if you can look here, you can see kind of where we're in a buyers market, right? The whole south east, a lot of these different areas are a buyers market.

And then you have places like york city that's right now a strong seller market, you know. And then even you know places like phenix dn verdel as is kind of neutral, and that's kind of what we're seeing right now in fini X I. You know it's sort of leaning towards buyers, but not really it's pretty much a neutral market.

So saying stand here for managing eric, right? So take a look at the strong cellars markets, right? Sano york, let's say, and other, other markets. Those are important things to watch.

Now if those are strong and the blues are are are the buyers market, then what you're going to see is you're gonna see a blend. That's kind of the point. So this is a really good map to look at because you're now seeing something very different between a strong cellar and strong buyers market.

And if you if if you're looking at those together all in one, if you're looking at the whole us, you're gonna a see that things are not in a crash scenario. However, there are definitely markets where um you're starting to see the the buyers are actually starting to get Better. Better deals is specifically flared, and I know we're going to get to this, but that's actually what kind of put things on a radar for us as we started to see.

We have florida. We have viewers in florida. We have people there. They are emAiling us and and the ing us about florida. And so is going to go into that more. But I think it's interesting because one of the things to look at here is that these are a lot of the markets where people migrated to, right? So that's important because um now for for whatever reason, you now have these bias markets.

Yeah, absolutely. And so before we get into where and what we recommend IT, let's look at more gage rates because more gage rates are a big part of why the tides are turned into turn. I Jerry can use put up the picture of the guy with the quote.

So the fate of the housing market in the coming months will be dictated in part by the direction of mortgage rates. So this is a really a mortgage rate issue. And a lot of places now the reason being is, you know, we've seen the sad continue to cut the interest rate, but the mortgage rates have continued to rise. So now you have expensive you of high arger rates in high home Prices. And there does come a point where people are always solving to their monthly payment, and both of .

those are going to affect IT. Well, the best example I was uses automobile ills. So there's a long time ago when I bought my first car.

But when I bought my first car, you I could find out at thirty six to forty eight months, they even had a twenty four months option. Okay, now again, I why would I bring that up? Because i'm solving to my monthly.

Then they went to sixty months, but that that lower your monthly payment, then they went to seventy two months, lowers the monthly payment. Now there are eighty four months, so what they've done is doubled the length of time that you can finance car. So that's what we're talking about.

My monthly payment IT doesn't necessarily mean that the cars went down in Price, are stayed the safe. What IT means is that the car Prices went up and they just finance IT out. And so that we're talking about what we're talking about, a monthly payment that knew that is also on the table.

They're looking at IT potentially making mortgage forty years. Yeah that definitely lower the payment house Price, correct? IT could up the house Price.

So you take four hundred and seven thousand dollars, which is what the number is today. And it's thirty years. If they make IT forty years at lower the months, the payment, that means more people can afford a house. So the other thing that that that article said is that we have an affordability problem, yes, so that if houses are still going up nally, then that means that you're still going to have affordability promise going to push our people into rental eviscerate.

And I think a lot of people are confused as to why if the fed is lowering interest rates, more huge Prices are rising. And I wanted to pull up A J osborne s video for this because I think he explains that really well. And I think it's something that you need to understand instead of just waiting for the feed. There's other things you need to look at that are gona dictate mortgage Prices just as much as as they do.

First of all, there's a big turning point in october. We already know the fed lowered interest rates and they are going to continue, but the thirty year mortgage started to go up. It's because of how we get our thirty year mortgage.

You see in order to get the debt into the market, we have to sell bonds. Now these are sold from the treasury and we have a thirty year treasury. Now if an ambassage buys a thirty year treasury, they're going to get a four point six percent return.

When everyone's worried, in order to get this debt, you have buyers and you have a government selling. Now this is the key. Debt is a marketplace and White, everyone is really worried about the economy.

They rush to find safe assets that will pay them a return. That way, their money isn't worthless because of inflation. People run and they buy things like but thirty year treasury.

Now when you have more demand, you actually have to pay them less. So rates go down because you have more buyers and you have treasury bonds. So you don't have to pay as much because everybody wants them. It's the opposite though, if everyone thinks that the economy is .

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okay. So I thought that, that was interesting because we get a lot of questions on that, right? Um so basically, it's a debt market, so they need people to invest in the debt market.

So mortality rates typically do follow the federate eventually. But as of right now, people are expecting the stock marked to go up. They're expected cypher o to go up. They're expecting all these things to go up. So that then makes the mortgage more expensive.

Well, shout out to crypto. It's bets out. great. exactly. I know there's a lot of you guys out there, so you eventually like like a clock right twice a day, but the reality is IT doesn't track perfectly federal funds rate what the fed does. There's a leg.

And I think that's important of should just like with inflation, there's a leg. There's a leg going down. There's a leg going up. And when interest strates are increased or reduced, there's a leg. And so they say that you google is that you could be six months to a year before you actually see the results of knew the leg of some kind of policy or some kind of change.

yeah. And so and what we're seeing right now with a lot of investors is these interest rates, you things aren't cash flowing, right? So they're kind of sitting on the sidelines, are waiting for either Prices or rates to go down so that IT cash flows. And then we're seeing this with homebuyers too, because they're trying to solve to their monthly payment and interest rates are making that a little bit expensive for what they wanted buy. And everyone's kind of watching the fed rate and kind of in this watching weight game. So because they are kind of trying to figure out, create trust, taking office, how is that going to affect home places, how that going to affect interest rates? They're kindly just waiting and a lot of people are waiting, which is kind of why you're seeing some stagnation in the real stay market.

There's another psychological effect is going on right now, and we just pick on floor. And I know denial has a lot of research on this. If you have two or three hundred thousand dollars in equity and something and your neighbours and you start to see Price reductions in your neighbor od, you might get off the couch and say, you know, i'm in a list.

I'm in a list now before the knife is falling, you want a list before hit the floor. So knew that could be what's happening. I think you know we're starting to see in some markets, not mean where i'm going to crash, where people are panicking a little bit, and we're starting to see an an, an ordinary ordinate. I'm a lot of listings being listed in certain sub markets, right, which is having a cyclical effect. So IT could be sad that there is on the beginnings of potentially a mini crash in some of these mini sub markets based on model listings hitting because what we are looking at this week, i'm shocky.

but let's look at why there was I agree with you that when your neighbor list and then they have to discount the new panic.

But the question is, is why are so many people listing in florida and parts of texas? And if you look what they both have in common is they both had very significant insurance increases in the last few months with, you know, and everyone's getting their new premiums for next year and especially in florida, are going to be significantly higher. And they both are having natural disaster issues. Texas with the freezes predominantly and flood, obviously with the hurricanes. And you you can't discount that because you know right now, a three hundred and fifty thousand dollar house in not necessarily on the coasts and floor, I just in a coastal area, meaning whatever they deem is close enough to the coast, their insurance cost are looking about twelve thousand dollars a year next year.

Ah so just a jump over the up because we are talking about this this weekend. I think about this, you're a three hundred fifty thousand or home, which is a modest home.

Yeah three, about two.

but three, about two bath, not on the coast. Your insurance is a thousand a month. That significant. So even if you didn't have any damage and and you you were on the coast, the insurance is subsidizing the state to pay for new neighbors, essentially right regards to we had damage or not. So so these are these are financial decisions that people are having to make.

And not only in florida, we're seeing in texas as well, which of course, a lot of IT is along the the gulf. I've actually perfect been through a hrc ane down there in an airport baytown, which is is is just a little bit dub south of houston and there was horrible. But what happens is the whole town gets react and then um IT goes under repair and then your insurance costs go up.

So so we're actually looking at a company. Do we want to a dive vast from texas as a company? And if we do, where do we want to deploy that money? And there's there's lenders and there's investors that are looking at this exact thing. Fact, when we were looking at our acquisition targets for in twenty, twenty two, twenty twenty three, the we started to look at the insurance cost for multiple family for florida and we said let's pass because at the time insurance cost formal to family were nearly two thousand hours a unit a year.

Well bit okay ay, so that's my family. But then if you're a single family investor or and you're saying, okay, so now my insurance cost are twelve thousand, there is also a real consideration that my home could be damaged by the hurricane. My insurance isn't even as good as used to be, so i'm going to have to come out of pocket for a lot of that damage on top of this twelve grand a year if something were to happen.

And you know for somebody like me, like a small investor or homeward like that substantial I am, I have to come out a pocket like, let's say, I can cover the twelve grand with the cash flow, but if I have to come out of pocket, if I have major damage, then like that a races my cash floo w for years, you know. And it's and then I look at places like ariz, zona or other places that have very little natural disasters. And i'm like, wow, that's a much safer market for me.

Even if i'm getting a little less cash flow, i'm also not having to worry about these big ticket items. And so if everyone's kind of collectively thinking like that and we just have these hurricanes that hit florida, of course, people are going to start at listing. And then, of course, to your point, your neighbor or you see your neighbor had to discount your house and you're sitting there like what we were debating.

And now we have to sell IT before we lose our equity. And that's exactly what's happening right now in places like tampa. Jackson veil or lindu know just this alone is making people panic out.

Imagine if you're real ter there, say you're a real turn, tampa, and you're now one of the things that a whole matter looks at themselves again, back to this car scenario on your monthly payment. They're looking at now buying a home, but they're also looking at their property tax and their insurance and their mortgage. So the mortgage costs are acts. But now this insurance cost is is starting to and even be a detriment for people that might even be entering the mark.

absolutely. And let's pull up. We have a real or on from the todd sex podcast that was just on and he's in the orlando, Jacksonville area. And I thought what he had to say was really interesting. I explored .

the most.

like I said in general over the state. We're up. But right now, inventory for us, Jackson bill has blown up. Orlando has just blown up at all last week. Um you're talking you know right now a given example, you're talking the inventory right now in my enemy up about twelve percent down there, Jackson feel about eighteen percent and tampa is about uh seven and half percent.

And what is this over what? Year over year in the last thirty days.

year over year, year over year. What scary though is in the last seven days. Okay, just in the Stellar m Alice, eleven thousand, three hundred eighty nine new listings in the last seven days, you had Price decreases eleven thousand, nine hundred and ninety, almost twelve thousand.

Now the the the big number is back on the market. These are deals that fell apart. Contracts broke up, you know, for some reason they cancelled one, eight hundred and sixty two even to exploding.

What what would you say is the number one reason homeware are selling right now? Well.

the reason they are selling is they're trying. My experience of all the listening we have, the sellers are trying to get out before they use the equity.

although you have IT directly from somebody who's in the market, exactly eleven .

thousand listings. And this is just the middle of florida. A this is not the whole state eleven thousand listings in the last days.

And like he said, they're trying to swoop the equity. There's they're starting to panic. They're gonna SE the equity. And in fact, you know we um my family, we went from a guy.

He does arbi N B and in in orlando a and he has listed his home for seven hundred and seven thousand. It's already down to five hundred and seven thousand. It's been on the market for a like a couple months and he is letting us know you know he's trying to get rid of this.

And what I was telling can and you know we're really big on this channel with this kind of thing, is IT is an arb b only nights or hood. They're not allowed to do long term rentals. You can only do short term rentals. And so there are fifteen listings just in his neighbor od of probably sixty houses or something.

So that's not good. I was you you guys, as we always have said, you completely take out the fact that you could just rent IT to somebody um you can only be an airbnb in this airbnb now it's close if I remember to a dozy world yeah and you know which is kind of and by the way, there's other houses being built out there in that the sub we start to take a look and that little submarine is behind the .

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Is, I guess, technically crashing because you can't go from over seven hundred two in the fives and not consider that a massive Price adjustment. And by the way, it's not going to sell at that Price because when we looked at this weekend, um there was a lot of them that number and they're they all looked the same. You go on zero. They all have the same insides and you know the house is the same and they built around the same time. So this is not something that the product style a varies significantly from from a block to block or or even house to house.

But we are sing inclined that this is not a potential kind of crash situation that but panic in that area and and this is a crash kind of looks like people start to less. They are to panic. They can't sell anything they're having.

He had set on there. We cut IT out. But things right now, we're selling ten to fifteen percent low market value as people are one in offload.

He did eighteen and summer and twenty. And I think what's interesting, as IT was at twelve thousand.

do listings in one thousand and new list in the last seven day.

Okay, guys, I just why you wrap your head around that. Think about how many houses were listed in one week.

But a lot now could IT be an anomaly, of course, and I could have continue, of course, who knows? But this is this, what we wanted to talk about today, because as you guys started to take a look at some of these individual markets, especially as as we kind of move towards end of the year, as it's the, it's the old if somebody is list in the house in the Price is decreasing and they're on the fence and they're they are sitting on about equity, my my belief is these people are going to try to list early, and that's probably what happened here. And all of them, the supply flooded. And when I supply floods like that, you're going to start to see Price decreases.

And this quote is that is you're going to panic, panic first. So the median listing Price in september dropped to four hundred and thirty seven thousand, two hundred and fifty one dollars. So in active, I guess, going to have the term, but active listings surged over thirty five percent year in florida. So we have thirty five percent increase in Flora year.

What are we looking for her jar?

I don't I don't think we have.

Okay, so guess so .

anyway. So that's just kind of you know where we're at. Um know we also we're seeing that in new york city and lost vegas. Uh, things are kind of up to we don't have that chart, but I think that is kind of wear we're at with the market. It's not national.

it's local. Yeah.

no. So let's dive into our Jerry stop in the rye m thirds up, please. okay. So let's dive into our asking questions. If you guys want to sign up for premium, just go to come back our outcome for flash.

Oh, by the way, happy birthday, the new birthday. Guys, give a shout out here alone, like we had a nice party for her last week.

Yes, absolutely so. And I was asking, would you still be doing cash out refinance had there been no taxes on reality and no appreciation? Is cash out refinance only done to avoid trigger ing a taxable event due to increasing cash flow?

嗯， wow, so that I guess we need back up a bit though the point of doing a cash or refine always is to put whatever equity you have in something and pull IT out and redeployed IT. So that's number one. So people ask me all the time, should I sell? So I refinances to do this to that.

And I always say, what are you going to do with the money? So that's the first thing. And so if you have a lot of equity, for example, then you can put a new debt on there and pull that out tax free.

Now tax third because the how how can that work. So the reason that works is because that is not taxable. You pay tax when you sell. So if you if you're using new debt to replace old debt, and the difference is cash is still different than a whole actually along now, you put a home aca one on your home and you pull that out and you buy a boat, then that's not necessarily good if you buy if you pull IT out and you do in addition to your house, that might make make you a bit more, but you're still paying on that and you're basically increasing your debt.

So you got ta pay attention to do you want to do that? Do you want to replace out an old in an old interest ate less a lower for a higher interest rate just to get access to capital? The answer might be no.

So right now is not necessarily ily a refinances cash out time because especially you, if you have something sitting there, three, four percent like denials, got a condo that he owns and year like two point eight, right? She's two point eight. So he is she's locked. You know her payment is low compared the threads today. So he would be crazy to get rid of that just to have a firm on equity that well.

we also did the math on my one kind of that's paid off and then verses my condo that I have A A morga join. The cash on cash is actually Better on the kind of I have a more regime versus the one that's completely paid off, which was surprising me.

So how do gure that out? You take your equity and you, I have that. What can I how can I put IT to work somewhere else? And this is why leverage actually can make your returns Better, believe IT or not. So paying everything or cash isn't always the best scenario. So you have to look at IT that way.

And so so you have to look at you, you know what will that rental do? What is your cash flows on that property? It's gonna a change if you put new dead on there and a higher rate, you actually go down to implicated.

So that might not be the best scenario. And then, of course, is what are you going to do with the money? That's actually the biggest question, what you going to do with the money. And if you don't have a spot for IT, that's gonna make you more than you're probably Better off just keeping that low interest state, having that equity and see what happens with rates. But if your heads and your fixed and your good like the nail scenario, there's no reason to trade that out. Because she's making so much cash flow on that thing because she's got a two point percent one um and on one one that he has no loan SHE actually um is not doing that great because she's got hundreds of thousands sitting in this property with no debt and and IT only makes of twenty five .

hundred and months or something.

So you you gotta look at your return. So SHE makes twenty four thousand dollars on, let's say, three hundred thousand of equity. Okay, that's a number. Yeah, what is that? So if you would make twenty four thousand dollars on one hundred thousand of equity and SHE was used than one hundred thousand or something else that now she's to IT twice and yes, there returns a little lower, but she's only got one thousand and equity and SHE still making twenty four, let's say, or two thousand and say of cattle .

yeah absolutely I can on youtube doesn't really have a question, but he had a good comment. I want you to dive into IT. He said, do not improve your home with a cash out refer and a declining market.

Keep the money on the you guys be careful because a higher interest rate means higher payment and less cash will typically so um you know those low interests behind the delivery .

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an they're gold right now。 They are actually I would actually consider them an asset, you know, because anyone would step into your shoes to have that low Price money. And that's all IT is its low Price of money. So um you know if you can afford to don't refinance first yeah absolutely.

And and you kind of show me that too because my one of my condos needs quite a bit of work and I was thinking about doing IT right just going to read the floor up and you said, don't waste your money on that right now. Run IT for a less, you know because rents are going down. So you don't want to they're like neutral er or softenings, so you don't want to improve your place at the time same time the rents are going down.

right? There's another reason, but ah yeah we did go through the scenario on our house, but the other reason is affordability. Like if you put a lot of money into something and you want more, you want more money for IT. If you if you are getting more money, then why would you do this?

What that's a fair point though because I think somebody like me, you know, you say that and now I had wrapped around that, right? But to me I was like, you know, I wanted do this because the places in that nice, it's not going to be as easy to rent.

So my whole strategy in my mind was i'm going to read, do I am going to rip up the floor, do all this stuff so that IT rents for the same exact among, but that IT rents, right? And then you're like, no, you need to be thinking of this a more business aspects. So like if you're going to put IT six thousand dollars of work into a place, how much more is are going to cash for? Because IT doesn't make sense .

to put the money in to make the same amount of money completely read Better place and you're not getting more money than you've actually just taken money that's making money somewhere and and put IT into substance that's actually net zero.

But what I had around my head around though is that okay? So six grand do we do, Michael? If I actually have to run IT for a couple hundred dollars less to get IT filled, keeping at the same IT makes more sense to do that than to keep a neutral cash flow.

Uh, or you may like people to increased fifty box or hundred box and s six thousand dollars like IT really does come back to the math. And you know some of you listening are saying, okay, that's obvious. Others of you listening, we're like me where you're just trying to make IT nice so that IT rans and then.

You're not really looking at the numbers, and you really need to look at the numbers. And that's why I was so surprised when we set down a little of my numbers. And I realize I actually make a Better return on my with with leverage, you know, because I want to thought that because obviously the one that doesn't have leverage makes more money, but not for the money that I have rested .

in that the money I have tied up, right, as far as equity. So when when we we at one point had this is a mind boggling ling number, but we had sixty eight million dollars with our renovations going in our company. So that means we have hundreds of units being renovated and we have hundred of thousands more that we were renovating.

And this was the value as strategy that everybody was so pumped up about. Well, when illustrates went up and we I said, let's pull back because we started to see affordability problems with people. So I said, who cares if we have a two bedroom that rents for two thousand and what we call a classic unit that rest for fifteen hundred? I would.

Because now you got two different markets. You've got, you ve got somebody that can afford thousand, and somebody to california fifty hundred, let's say. And just not renovated. So have having non renovated housing, by the way, there's nothing wrong with your place, just denial, want a nicer floors um there's nothing role is a great location in scotstoun um and you know the things late twenty five years old maybe so but he stated a little bit um but IT doesn't need that kind of work and so why not offer an affordable option for somebody because um it's gonna be significantly less and and they'll be grateful not everything needs be high and renovated because then you don't have any room for people that can't afford that.

Yeah absolutely. An Edison on youtube is asking, do you see this is a good time to buy wholesale .

and flat depends on the property, the market. And like if you as we like to say, you might be cut in a falling knife if you're trying to do that in florida, that this is the is way too early there, like this could be a just little blip like before the year and or IT might be a trend. So it's too early to say that .

actually is you've rought up a good point on a question I know a lot of people have, even though they haven't asked. But is that a good time to buy in florida? Because of things are getting discounted, people are turn to panic. Is this not a good time to buy? Because you always say you want to buy when no one wants to buy, and you don't want to buy .

when everyone want to go to buy. The the first thing that happens, they got listed. You have not seen the Price reduction yet. That's the bottom line. Like just listing something is the precursor we talk about drop in a pebble in the pond and the concentric rings that's called precession. So what the peel in the pond is the listing of one thousand units you have not yet seen, and you will with the professional rings in which you are going to be Price productions, for sure. So no, you don't want to be in florida right now.

Well, and I had a question about that though because you know, what i'm seeing a lot right now is people kind of urgently jumping because they're hearing that Prices are going down or they are thinking they can get a good deal. And I think as a buyer, you really have to understand what what you for your numbers and where a cash flows. And like, I had a couple clients last weekend and they wanted to make this lobo offer on this house. And I have been sitting and I said, okay, but be careful like in the offer because you might actually get IT like, you know know, I think people are kind of like in the stage where they they want IT so bad and they ve been waiting so long that they're ready to buy anything that they feel like they can get a deal on. And in certain Marks like florida, it's time to just chill out for second.

Yeah just like let IT all kind of play out. Days on market is important, guys, and it's going to take a while, right? What's Normal six months? That's traditionally Normal. That's average six months. So right now it's four point two. So all this happening is the the crazy ess that we experience in the bubble that was created is deflected a little bit right now, again, not nationally and not everywhere as as we showed on that heat.

Everyone saying, you know, patients like moses just posted something interesting. He said in the orlando area, new listings were twelve hundred and sold six hundred paces to create four hundred hundred. So these are kind of some of the numbers that you want to pay attention to and continue to pay attention to as you're looking as to went to buy.

yeah. So if you're a real ter down there, this this should actually be good news for you. I mean, IT might seem the opposite of that.

But if you have clients I want to come in to florida, the right advice would be let's see where this goes because if you're really trying to do the right thing for the buyer, yeah, you're trying to have them understand that pricing could be adjust the downside in some of those markets and you might want to tell to wait. And that's actually what you should be doing if if you're investing there too is you you should be you should be waiting. These are um again.

this is one small market. I do a question though. So you know it's hard to gain, but a with insurance costs, this is kind of a interact. So you know, i'm a buyer, i'm an investor I wanna inflate at even with the insurance costs in twenty twenty five, my property is gonna cash all i'm happy. How do I really though know that it's not gonna explode again the insurance Prices in twenty, twenty six and twenty and that's what makes that harder.

right? Yeah yeah. I obviously, you know I believe the next then the next low hanging fruits can be property tax.

Taxes are big peace. And so you know church know who know the shares is up for sure by property taxes or canon acx. We're starting to see utility costs up as well, not everywhere, but certainly there. And then labor costs and you know everything a cost to maintain, they're all up. Um what's not up reits brain?

So so how doesn't investor that look at? I mean, you know because I know everyone like me on the sidelines like, well, how do you you know, how does M C company kind .

needs like there's nothing more frustrated to me than sitting across from some twenty, thirty old kid. And they say, you know what? Last year with six, eight percent rank growth, the year before six or eight percent rank growth, next year gonna be six, eight percent right growth.

Guess what um that's like happening right now. So and the reason is, is to help through any cycles. And so um if you're looking in the review mayor and saying next year is gonna be Better than um you probably need to take a break because it's not what's happening is as Prices are flat, rents are flat. Obviously, we just saw the sign of my home Prices are actually not. But in the real market, things are flat right now.

absolutely.

Affability is a real problem.

Will you guys have a good thanksgiving and we will see you next week, guys?