cover of episode How to Accurately Forecast Your Real Estate Market in 2025

How to Accurately Forecast Your Real Estate Market in 2025

2024/11/5
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Ken McElroy Show
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Danille McElroy
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Ken McElroy
带有36年高级级别经验的房地产投资和管理专家，MC Companies CEO和创始人。
Topics
Ken McElroy: 本期节目主要探讨如何准确预测2025年房地产市场，特别是租赁市场。他强调人口增长是关键指标，即使投资本身有风险，人口增长也能降低风险。他批评了仅依赖他人意见的策略，鼓励投资者独立分析。他指出数据分析需考虑数据范围（国家、州、市）和区域差异，并以凤凰城为例说明同一城市不同区域的市场差异。他还强调了分析人口增长百分比而非绝对数字的重要性，以及考虑城市现有容量和人口增长分布。他建议投资者深入研究人口迁移的具体区域，并以哥伦布和西雅图为例说明不同规模城市人口增长率的影响。他认为，如果一个地区房价可负担且人口增长，那么它可能是一个不错的投资地点，但仍需进一步考察。他还指出，人口下降地区应避免投资，因为这会导致供应过剩和市场价格下跌。他建议投资者关注U-Haul数据等人口迁移数据，并综合考虑多个数据来源的信息。他还讨论了俄勒冈州租金下降以及人口外流对当地商业的影响。他用演唱会门票的例子来比喻房地产市场的供需关系，强调人口迁移数据的重要性。 Danille McElroy: 她补充说明就业增长与人口增长密切相关，就业机会多的地方人口往往会增加。她指出，虽然社区环境等因素也很重要，但就业机会是影响人口迁移的最重要因素。她参与分析了几个城市的就业增长和人口增长数据，并指出就业增长快于人口增长通常是积极信号。她还强调了评估就业增长时不仅要看就业数量，还要看就业质量（工资水平）的重要性，并指出不同类型的租赁房产对就业质量的要求不同。她还讨论了大型雇主数量和就业情况的变化对房地产市场的影响，以及雇主选址时会考虑当地生活成本（房租和房价）等因素。她还指出，雇主也会考虑员工的居住偏好，这会影响企业选址。她还讨论了不同城市就业类型的多样性对房地产市场稳定性的影响，以及大型企业迁移、经济波动和劳务外包等因素对房地产市场的冲击。她还强调了投资多元化产业的地区风险较低。她还分析了几个城市的空置率数据，并指出高空置率意味着市场竞争激烈，租金增长潜力有限。她还讨论了政府政策对房地产市场的影响，特别是政府为移民提供的住房对空置率的影响。她还指出，新增住房数量与人口增长数量的比较可以帮助投资者预测租金增长。她还讨论了房地产市场的滞后效应，以及市场竞争激烈时投资的时机。她还强调了人口增长（无论来源）与住房供应之间的关系决定了租金的涨跌，这与政治无关，纯粹是数学问题。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Ken and Danille McElroy discuss the essential metrics and indicators to identify profitable rental markets in 2025, emphasizing the importance of population growth, job creation, and vacancy rates.
  • Investing where people are actually going can save a bad investment due to population growth.
  • Successful investors use strategies to spot booming rental opportunities.
  • The discussion will reveal strategies based on population growth, job creation, and vacancy rates.

Shownotes Transcript

If you are an accredited investor and are interested in learning more about how to invest with Ken and MC Companies, follow this link: https://investwithmc.com/podcastKen and Danille McElroy discuss the essential metrics and indicators to identify profitable rental markets in 2025! From population growth to job creation and vacancy rates, this discussion reveals the strategies of successful investors to spot booming rental opportunities.To view the charts mentioned in this podcast, you can follow this link: https://bit.ly/3AiMXFj• • • Visit Ken's Bookstore: https://kenmcelroy.com/books • • • ABOUT KEN: Ken is the author of the bestselling books The ABC’s of Real Estate Investing, The Advanced Guide to Real Estate Investing, and The ABC’s of Property Management. With over two decades of experience in real estate investing, Ken McElroy is passionate about sharing the good life by helping real estate investors grow and prosper. This podcast is a place for Ken to discuss numerous topics connected to real estate investing, including finance, budgeting, the entrepreneur mindset, and creating passive income. Ken offers a wealth of personal experiences, practical advice, success stories, and even some informative setbacks, all presented here to educate and inspire. Whether you’re a new or seasoned investor, the information and resources on this channel will set you on a path where you and your investments can thrive. Ken's company: https://mccompanies.com • • • DISCLAIMERS: Any information or advice available on this podcast is intended for educational and general guidance only. Ken McElroy and KenMcElroy.com, LLC shall not be liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of access to or use of any of the content available on this podcast. Consult a financial advisor or other wealth management professional before you make investments of any kind. Although Ken McElroy and his affiliates take all reasonable care to ensure that the contents of this podcast are accurate and up-to-date, all information contained on it is provided ‘as is.’ Ken McElroy makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained on this podcast. Any links to other websites are provided only as a convenience and KenMcElroy.com, LLC encourages you to read the privacy statements of any third-party websites. All comments will be reviewed by the KenMcElroy.com staff and may be deleted if deemed inappropriate. Comments that are off-topic, offensive, or promotional will not be posted. The comments/posts are from members of the public and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ken McElroy and his affiliates. © 2024 KenMcElroy.com, LLC. All Rights Reserved.