Investing a Pile of Cash in a Bull Market
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Walk back, this is as the compound you ask we answering today show, we will be answered viewer questions about when is time to fire your financial adviser, how elections and politicians should and shouldn't impact your investment decisions, the right time to sell a home in the home buying transaction process, how to invest a slug of cash sitting on the sidelines during a bull market and what's the best head if china invade the taiwan? A lot of world, world.

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we ve got some really good applicants so far. But yeah if if you're watching this and your video editor um that also knows away around camera and unset production um cras, may I ask the command show gmail icon?

right? Let's go to questions.

First one, at first day, we have a question from David. I've had a financial advisor for the past six years. They really helped me get my financial life in order and installed good habits, and my parents just didn't have education or experience to give me.

However, I don't earn her home and don't have a complicated financial life, so i'm question the value they provide. I have a great account I work with on a fee or project basis. I know enough to rebels a portfolio, my own taxes harvesting what how should I be considering regarding continuing to work with my adviser as I weigh the performance, my portfolio and the fees? We've got plenty of questions .

over the years about one's the right time to hire a address, especially people approaching retirement as that one. This one is about firing your advise. That sounds like this one was used. This saviors used as a form of education. I think there's a lot of a nurse, al.

And decisions like this is kind of like changing your bank, your dentist, where sometimes it's just easier to stick with IT and not make the change cause of financial records and moving of counts and moving money. So do you need a financial advise as a legitimate question? I think there's some questions that you should probably asked yourself when thinking through this. So I would like to know is your current advice are doing exactly what they told you they would do in terms of services and setting expectations?

Um do you personally find value in the financial planning process or but the regular conversations you have with this person um how often are community with them? Are they community you on a regular basis proactively? Did they create a financial plan for you? Um do you review that financial plan on a regular basis? Have they actually helped make your life easier? Have they help make you more disciplined investor and following your plan?

Um do they help with your left yourself in other ways of knowing what the pain points are for you? Are they helping you track and or define your goals? And are you on track to reach those goals? They are giving a regular update on that.

So I would I would have a conversation with them about this. Like what's your value prop? What are you doing from here? We did all the set up. And the thing is the financial planning itself is not this one time event.

And we hand you a thring binder or something online and you take IT and you go and you um but there is a little bit of other what would you say you do here? Insert office space. Me here, right? Like what what you doing. And I think if they can provide an acceptable answer, probably time to move on. If if you don't have a complicated financial life in situation like you don't not really need an advisor, some people desire one in that scenario, but it's not for everyone, so not definitely not necessary if you don't need help in these ways.

Yeah, i'm curious reading this question. What came to mind for me is what would you say in your experiences the number one reason people five fire final visor.

I think the biggest one is just a lack of trust or they're they're not helping you at all. They're not communicating the big one for. Its interesting how often we hear to someone coming us from financial advisor sing, they just never communicate with me.

They didn't talk to me, they won't transparent enough. And I think that's a big, obviously like people would think, word's performance. And obviously, if you had adviser, they put to the much of crappy stuff and lose bunch of money. That's an easy one.

But a lot of times people just want to know that you're going to be OK, that you're doing something film and and a lot of that comes down boiled down to education and communication and and just being there and and actually doing something. They cause all the times you you know a lot of the movement for a financial plane is going on behind the scenes, but the cent wants to know that you're there to help them and listen, you know, help to make Better decisions. And if you're not not new, came with their clients, they don't feel like they're being heard or there that are doing anything for them.

We also see people in tRicky situations or that right or like I am my friends with my advisor or it's a family friend, and there's a lot of sticky kind of weird situations I think people find themselves on .

in the easiest rip of bended off for us. We ve IT is less. My parents had their own person, their guy, and we are we have no time, this personal, we are ripping abandon off.

We are out of there that we see what they are doing. They weren't doing the right job or whatever is. And so those are easier. But yeah, IT can be difficile because you do build a relationship here if but if they can't prop get out there, it's time to tell you.

yes.

Next question .

I was say we take for great. Sometimes we have such a good community to watch this weekend and week out. If you're new here and you see me looking around, it's because i'm looking at the White chat on youtube. So if you watching me this on twitter and you want to jump in the check that's on youtube so I pulled up on youtube when I anya say him a yeah up next we have a question from jeff. I've been reading barry a barry rule status since his washing post days and have always taken this message of don't mix politics with your portfolio to heart IT hasn't always been easy, but surely policies from the new administration have to matter, right? How do you square this kind of thinking as usual?

Want to show, asked by name and you shall receive bring on what .

was that .

early .

to mid two thousand tens you were warning for the .

washing post here for about seven years and legitimately first column did in twenty eleven was, hey dc, um here's the new gig and i'm here to start by warning you um never makes your your daydreams never makes your politics with the markets and and you could twenty thirteen and you could um you could see IT in a number of studies where after an election um so H O A obama selected republicans move to cash and they mix um they they literally obama's warn in in january twenty eighth sixty days later the market bottoms and its off to the races one of the headline es was .

obamas killing the out right that .

was an upbeat the day before the bottom to just give you a sense of how terrible the timing is and and so if you by the way, IT works on both sides when trump got elected. A study found that uh in areas so so all this is anonymous so they have to do IT by zip code. And IT was a major farm and we don't know was mary linch swap, but it's something like that.

And when they looked at changes post twenty sixteen election by zip code areas that voted more heavily against trump, move to cash, move to bonds and missed you know the rest of the ongoing rally. Can demio crash recovery and IT was just um for no other reason than the guy you didn't like god elected. I don't know if you guys remember dunk and you're in here, but then you were here in twenty sixteen. So I did a letter to clients that I wrote the day before the election results were fine.

And I left the last paragraph blank until the morning, and I walk, go out and I said, hey, half of you are not going to be happy with the outcome of the selection um the good news is you can have tax cuts and death is at spending the bad news some of your favorite um whatever IT is issues charities pantherish are gonna get cut take your tax gott and redeploy IT towards the things you you believe in regardless of which side you're on but leave your portfolio alone the the chAllenge today is okay. What's going to happen, uh, is they're going to be a war on companies, is they're going a big task cut is there are going to be tariff, is going to be deficit spending. Half that stuff is bad, half that stuff is good.

Being able to figure out exactly what the health impacts the markets IT is all but impossible. And and remember you know this was really detailed in Michael Lewis book um about S B F and and genre trading that gene street figured out state by state the results of the election a few minutes ahead of CNN and so they made a tony money just anticipating the outcome of the election and then they failed to make the private that are right trump one we're going to get task cuts and deficit spending. That's whether you dislike IT for all the reasons ultimately that money flows to the stock market. That was really good for .

the market in your point is always been that the markets in the economy are so much bigger, ready, original peace, I think. And IT was like the the U. S. Economy, seventeen trillion dollars. Good luck moving that around on your own now.

And I was twenty years ago now, right?

Thirty trillion. And and I think the main point here is that, of course, policies will matter. They will matter to certain industries and sectors and individuals like we're not saying they won't matter. The the question is can you actually predict which ones will lead to different comments for different stacks or sectors or whatever IT is in the the biggest one for me that I always point out is like people think, okay, republicans are Better .

for energy stocks.

Energy stocks, a horrible under trump, that great underbit. And so that's the point, is that it's a lot of times it's conterno tuition to think what will and we often overreact immediately, right? You see certain sector's going way up right now.

We're going way down and you go, okay, this is how the next four years is going to be. And markets aren't always right. Markets don't get IT right there. There's going to be some conventual, tive things that happen here. And the point is, is very difficult to fill out what those are going to be.

Here's the thing that I think most lay people overlook and and traders and market professionals have a Better sense of this. Hey, if we're talking about this, if this is on CNN or fox news, if this is in the wall street journal, the new york times, it's pretty fair to say that is already built into the Price mostly. So you can trade on wildly understood public information because the market is mostly efficient.

It's not perfectly efficient. But hey, now the biggest risk is tariff. We really have a ten percent terf.

Is that or sixty percent tariff? Is that an negotiating position? What what's really onna come out of this we don't know.

We're really onna support ten million people. I mean, the prison population of the united states is one point two million people. We going to deport ten x. The U. S. print.

What country is going to accept them? So so all these, like major campaign plans and all these promises, I always take them with a big grain assault. Everybody makes these promises. Most of them don't really.

Are you politicians don't always follow through with their promises?

I am still waiting for the wall to go up along the mexican border. We built five miles and IT turned out mexico didn't pay for IT. So IT IT doesn't matter what they say, what you have to look at, what they're gona do.

The fact that the republicans have both house of congress makes me pretty confident that the twenty seventeen tax cuts and job backs will will be um renewed. Uh maybe even they'll be another trillion or two trillion or or tax cut and theyll be more deficit spending. Ultimately that falls to to IT ends up goosing the stock market over over the short term. And over the long term, the more tax cuts there are, the more people going to spend that ultimately ends up in the in the gets recycled in the economy. We can talk about the long term impacts of that for ten, twenty years down the road of deficit spending, but that's not going .

affect my IT is unna in twenty sixteen. The resulting theme from pundits IT was trump is gonna crash the markets, right? Because over the market was on a percent overnight.

And this time around, it's there's going to be a boom. So it's just curious to see how that collective wisdom will bear. I think the next question here is a good case in point of this territory. So done can read the next question because this is this is a good add on here.

okay. And next we have a question from, oh, my wife and I put on selling your house once my Young gest graduate high school in two and five years. My wife is pushing for us to sell IT in the spring of twenty twenty five instead of waiting until spring twenty twenty seven because he believes home Prices will be done considerably in twenty twenty seven due to trumps policies and inflation. I tried to channel my inner bin and tell her if there's no way to predict these things, but she's pressingly hard. Any suggestions on how to address the situation?

I'm not sure how I feel about being used in marital disagreements um but this is the process to last question um I guess my whole thinking is that like vibes for sure and that actionable when IT comes to investments and mother general rule of thun besides don't mix politics with your portfolio is timing. The housing market is very, very difficult. If you can afford to service the in a house, you should, you should buy IT, right?

If if that's what you want to do, if you need to sell a home, um I don't think you try to time IT perfectly based on mortgage ge rates and where you think Prices are going to go. I I got an email from a guy, mike and I did in like apple twenty twenty one, saying I live in seattle, the causing Price, you're going nuts. I feel like it's time to lack IT in.

And I looked back at that today and I think housing Prices in C L, up thirty percent since then or something. And so I think if you're thinking through this, the timing of the housing market and maybe to give your wife some credit here, her thinking doesn't make a lot of sense because if there is inflation, that's usually good housing Prices, right? Housing did really well in the seventies and early eighties. Um but it's possible that she's just stressed out about having this hand over her head for two or three years. I think if if that's the reason he wants to sell, that makes more sense to me than having some idea about what trumps presidency is going to do to housing Prices.

And and here's the other thing about housing that someone important. When you look at the graph of new home construction going back to the ID two thousands, you know, we ran up into the financial crisis and then IT plumped for more than a decade.

And depending on who you want to believe, the national social relations of the home builder association, we are two, three, four million home short, and it's gonna anywhere from five to ten years to catch up with the population growth. And remember when everybody was living in their parents basement, those people all moved out and they're all doing well. And the reason Prices have gone up so much is simply supply and demand.

The demand dramatically exceeds the supply until that strengths out, which could take years. I'm not a salary of real state on a specular basis. And when you're doing IT based on politics, it's an emotional decision. I'm curious what this guy's wife's track record forecasting movements in the housing market has been over the area houses .

already the the emotional asset there is because the throat of your head. So my wife and actually did this. So we under home up north, we decided to build a new one in a Better spot.

And there was going to be about a twelve months period between the time our house was done and when we listed IT. But my wife just didn't want to have that hanging over us like the timing of selling this one and then buying this one. We don't want to Carry two houses in morning at that point. Margate to turn moving up. This is back in the three, four person.

This is what health cost, eighty thousand dollars, right? Yeah.

sure, in twenty twenty two. So we saw that a year early and missed out on a year in this house to wait for you to be done. But IT was a huge piece of mind thing for us. And we maybe we missed out on further Price, but for us, that was IT was fine because we knew that house was sold. We had the downs yet ready for the new one.

So if that's the idea of for your wife that he just wants piece of mind, that makes me more sense to me than i'm trying to time politics here and use that to gage the housing market, which is a hyper local function policies can impact housing Price, the national basis. But you'll also talking about the local housing market, what that means for. So I would never try to use politics to to time the housing market from that perspective.

The thing I just can't get over working houses as I see houses that now seems like an OK deal uh, by today's android. And then I look at the Price history and see this doubled in value over the last years. Just I do not doing that.

don't I? I can do you can be waiting for you're going be waiting forever. If that's the case, probably okay.

i'll wait all pull back right?

Next question.

I'm next we have my not registered assets have been sitting in cash for about a year ah because I sold a White invest purchase at home. I wanted to cushion for this home purchase as well as fun for renovations unknown at sea that's now complete and I have a good chunk leftover. I just say the amount is worth many, Michael, modern renovations and advice.

Ah, this person watches animal spirits. I've watched to run up in the market over the last year, and I know I should pull the trigger and warm some the funds back into the market. But men, the euphoria just doesn't seem sustainable.

So as I heard of this, I was thinking the best way to force myself back in would be to automatically invest. I'm thinking this trickles the funds back in. And if there's a correction, I can dump more into the market. What are your thoughts?

I mean, this has to be the subject. We ve got more questions than anything over the years. Just the delicate averaging lump some kind of think where do you think is that this the equation changes at all in a bull market because I feel like the it's way easier to dollar cost average in a bear market because you think yourself well, keep going down and i'll just keep putting money on a regular basis. I know that either situation is easy, but do you think that the cuckoos changes at all during like the emotional aspect .

of a during a both market? So our college actually ran the numbers on this and found two at a three times with you look, all rolling periods going back uh, I think I was nineteen and fifty. Um the lumps investing beats the dollar across averaging cause you get the benefit of compounding over time longer and the .

market .

usually goes up, right? The the chAllenge is that most of us look at a rising market and say I missed IT, not recognizing that markets run further and and last longer market, both markets than most people realize. And so you know if you're putting a chunk in, if you need IT in one, two, three years, well then maybe equities isn't where that money should be parked.

Um i'm looking to buy a beach house. We're selling another one. And the money I have for the downpayment sitting in a five percent money market account, but if I didn't need that money for ten years or longer, will then just put the money to work and know, recognize that most of the time the trend is, is your friend and the bull market working your vantage.

There are times when IT won't but meanwhile, you know, it's to try and time IT. You could have said the same thing ninety five, ninety seven, ninety eight, ninety nine and then once you had the the dc and losing, you could the same thing o nine, ten, eleven and twelve, thirteen IT went on and on. IT just is so chAllenging ing to try and forecast. It's all but impossible.

And you can make the, you can make the outcome best either. So I did. I sold something in late twenty twenty two and at a big slogan, and I thought, you know what, this is when ready and play when the market baton.

And I said, i'm just going to delay cost averages over the next twelve months. I'm going to put an equal mountain every two weeks and I followed that through for twelve months in the market, ran up in twenty twenty three, right? And IT was going up and up and and fella went up the whole time.

There was a few pull backs, but I should have just lumped some in IT. But I was actually occur with that decision I made that time because that's what that's what I decided to the time and actually made IT easier for me to put that money to work. So I think I I think for most people, probably that doll cost averaging from sysop gc perspective makes more sense. I think you'll feel Better about that decision regardless of what happens just because IT IT takes the the burden of putting IT all on at once and waiting for that .

shoot drop to two other three times. It's the worst decision. But if emotionally you can get passed in D, C, I is your answer.

right? This is the first not to brag that too, he sit on a pile cash he's find either way, right? Yeah sounding .

sending prety good.

We have one more question.

Let's spend at least we have a pretty depressing uh, question but but a good one non the less. Uh, this is from josh. What would be your head of china invade? Ed, taiwan, gold, commodities. Intel, com. althaus. Some very specific names.

Yeah, we're talking about the chips, obviously I don't know. short. Taiwan, some conductor.

Um this is another one is often countertop. What's the art cash story, right? They're talking about the cute muscle crisis. And IT was like, look, kid, if hear the middle es flying, you buy them, you don't sell them.

Because if they shoot the muscles not come matter anyway, the trades won't clear if they don't mark is gonna fine. This is another tough one because, let's say, you knew ahead of time russia is going to invade ukraine, right? What would you've done? I'm going to buy oil.

I'm going to buy commodities. I look at this today. Oil was eighty seven dollars a bill coming into that when they announced russia invaded ukraine.

IT shot up to more than hundred dollars immediately, I think, by the next month. And everyone is saying two hundred dollar oil is guaranteed here. IT comes today.

Oil is are around seventy dolla barl IT. Basically has been straight down since then, hasn't gone anywhere. So you could have known that conflict was coming and you still probably wouldn't have profited from IT at the time. So I kind of feel the same way about this is often counter two of outcomes, and it's not always gonna out like you think.

It's amazing. It's amazing how much we think we know what's going to happen. And you know, russian invasion ukraine is a perfect example.

There was noise about IT for nine months. A lot of people didn't believe IT. But as a little bit of a hedge, the Price of oil crapped up long before the invasion actually took place.

And so it's it's by the room and sell the news. And that's what's so counterintuitive for the later son. Wait, this just happened.

Why is oil going in the wrong direction? Oh, you're six months later. This trade, yes.

every time there's something flares up middle east that so we fed a war essentially the mild east and in ukraine of russia. And the oil market has done nothing over the past. Two b one based.

It's amazing. yes. So I don't .

think that you try to hedge these things. I used to listen to one of the macro O O places back in the two thousand and tens in my demand foundation days. And remember, they come out these reports and they would say, this tiny island in the pacific between sitting in between japan and china, this is the most important piece of real ted in the planet.

Because if china in japan fight over IT, then the world will come do an end. And so I think you get some of these people that are that always predicting this stuff. And obviously we know conflicts can happen.

They they are happening now and they they will happen. But I don't think that makes sense to put this into your your plan of attack in any means. If you wanted, take some of your fun account and I don't know have short and video or taiwan doctor or something like that sure have added. But I don't think putting this enduring life and plan makes any sense.

I totally agree.

I went in my wesson bin when I bought uh that zero coupon bond etf uh before the first kite and IT ended up just dropping like a turn over the next couple weeks.

So wasn't IT down eight days and row or something? Is going to cut rates and interest with .

move higher IT was more than like most of stocks yeah only discuss back .

to barry thing about headlines, right? Like a lot of times the market is already moved by the time IT IT reaches the headline. You can't look at the headline and I go, okay, now i'm going to make this change. IT doesn't essay or like that um but you announce some details on your new book this week, right I think we have Daniel show the picture here.

Uh yeah that's right. Actually that's the ah oh that's IT that's the latest one. H comes out march c teens. Um I just announced on monday that the final manuscript went in.

You know it's like running a book, then you have written more books than any of us in the firm practicably combines. And so there's a little endings back in for that. I was it's funny.

I this different from bailout nation and that IT felt a little more luxury ious and and I wasn't under a time pressure that everything was happening in real time like every time a new company blew up, I had to go back and we edit that chapter oh wait, but bank amErica buying marrow, let me write that. Um this just felt like I had maybe the luxury of time is the wrong word. This just felt like I could really put some time and effort the thinking thinking IT out and the sounds weird.

And this was joyous to write. This was fun IT was a little bit of a puzzle trying to put the pieces together. But i'm i'm thrilled without I came out. The initial feedback has been great, super excited. You know we've had a century of books telling people what to do and most people are still bad, bad investors and so the concept was um hey won't be great if we learn the things not to do if we can listen to a torley monger who said burke, shy was successful not because we were smarter than everybody else.

We were just less stupid, which is a very monger thing to say, you know, don't be smarter, just be less stupid or charly Alice, who wrote the book winning the losers game, which is ninety nine percent of tennis players or amateur s and they lose by unformed irr s know the prose make the aces. They hit the ball on the line they place is perfectly. But amateur s mess up and and lose themselves. The same is true for investing if, instead of trying to hit home runs, you just attempt to make fewer errors. You way ahead of everybody else.

Jack White from the White stripes called this the liberation of limiting yourself. And so he would live in the kind of instruments that they could do, and albums to make an easier rate and produce the music.

thanks. That's really interesting. You know, I love the fact. And this goes back to the original question about to a sea. How do we get our stocks? Jack White said, I forget which hit IT was maybe IT was ah I remember the name of the hit with a great rift that starts seven nation.

yes.

seven ation army. So the record company didn't like IT. Nobody thought I was going to be ahead.

That became an Angel worldwide that literally nobody in the industry had any idea was going to going to work out. And it's a perfect example of. We think we know what's happening in the future.

And really, we have we have no idea. The first twenty percent of the book is showing all these examples of from music, from film, from television, that the smartest, most experiences, best track record people in the industry. Yeah, these ideals, we don't think if their sound is gonna last, a star wars, a western in space.

What who wants to do that? Um radars, law stock could couldn't find A A buyer, literally can. Reefs had to reach into his own pocket to finish filming john wick because the studio thought I was drunk.

And then want anything to do with IT. It's a two billion dollar franchise. Nobody knows what's gona happen in the future.

And if you think you could guess, hey, a president was just elected. He's coming in january twenty eth, this is what that means for our house in twenty twenty seven. You really delusional if you think that any human being has .

that ability knows no the book now.

yeah, absolutely. Go amazon to born novel, go to your favorite book buyer or or if you go to real, you'll see the link right there.

Click right, perfect even here.

Well, sorry, before before we go, uh dave in the chat is asking about your vector push. Um have you been driving away?

We I was I had IT out this weekend. I was, I was really a lovely day and I I thought, let's take this out. I have come to the realization that a thousand and eighty seven twenty five hundred pounds um three hundred thousand mile car that has suddenly been upgraded to four hundred horse power. I think I need to put a whole new different set of breaks. I think I have to take like a two thousand and five set of breaks and and back take this because .

maybe put the hardest in .

IT too I mean IT at least IT has a three point um you know a regular sea belt any time I drive something from the one hundred and sixty like you kind like the sixty year or of IT it's a lap belt and there isn't even passenger side mirror it's like were they thinking, oh, and let's drop up four hundred hours, power the eight into this thing.

We need some management.

H I don't take those sort of cars out um unless it's in very controlled conditions, but I I very much recognize that hey, there's not a lot of room for error with four hundred horse power and olds. So I want to see if I can get these breaks upgraded.

But meanwhile is driving dunk ens two times levered nasdaq fund out there?

The funny thing is, every times levered I pull up anywhere in the license place is evy nine eleven. Someone says that's not really electric so I have to pop the the trunk and show me there's no engineer just a big battery pack and underneath that a tesla motors sitting right on top of um the axon and their like why why would you do that to the scar? I like it's three hundred thousand miles. IT was heading to the rub guard before I rescued IT. So that's why and it's it's a lot of fun yeah it's it's not a fun.

good. So you got to reset .

the owwr ad then right? Put the new.

I guess I mean, it's still, you know it's still A A three hundred thousand mile car, the differences. So I replaced the original brakes, I cleaned up the the steering column, I replaced all the light bulbs in the extra wing. So everything works.

But you know, any car from the eighties hates forty years. All these things were, you know, not built to last this long. And so IT tweaks the suspend, I replace the suspension, and also kind of tight to Carry the extra weight of.

So I went from twenty four hundred two, about twenty eight hundred pounds. So I upgraded the suspension to Carry a little more weight, which really was shockingly inexpensive, unlike everything else on the car. But it's just a fun like it's so your people have a hard time wrapping their brain around that. I took a couple of friends out and including a guy who is a porch dealer slash collector, and he's like, I just can write my head around this. This, this old car is going way too fast for what IT is.

IT doesn't make. We need to get out to some photos of you.

This i'd love to. That would be, that would be a blast. It's a ton of n .

even from driving in some driving gloves. Alright, as the compound show a jim that come as our email like rate review masters and business with berry, check out the big picture, all that good stuff. See you next time.

Thanks everyone.

thanks.

We're listening to ask the compound. All opinions expressed by then croson, duncan hill and any of their guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of rattled, swept management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of richland's wealth management may maintain positions in the security discussed in this podcast.